Economic Outlook National, Regional, and Local
18
Economic Outlook National, Regional, and Local
Transcript of Economic Outlook National, Regional, and Local
Economic OutlookNational, Regional, and Local
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Data Sources
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
• GMU Center for Regional Analysis
• Delta Associates
• Prudential, S&P
• Travel Economics
• Bureau of Economic Analysis
• calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
• Federal Reserve Board
• Jones Lang LaSalle
National Economic Outlook
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Data Sources
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
As of July 2008, Case-Shiller values hadfallen to Summer ’04
levels.
FY 2010 Council Retreat
MEW, Billions of Dollars, Quarterly, Kennedy‐Greenspan
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Reset Schedule
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Consumer Confidence SurveyUniversity of Michigan 1990‐2008
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
57.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
12019
90q1
1991
q1
1992
q1
1993
q1
1994
q1
1995
q1
1996
q1
1997
q1
1998
q1
1999
q1
2000
q1
2001
q1
2002
q1
2003
q1
2004
q1
2005
q1
2006
q1
2007
q1
2008
q1
Surv
ey V
alue
FY 2010 Council Retreat
GDP Change by Quarter
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1972
q1
1973
q4
1975
q3
1977
q2
1979
q1
1980
q4
1982
q3
1984
q2
1986
q1
1987
q4
1989
q3
1991
q2
1993
q1
1994
q4
1996
q3
1998
q2
2000
q1
2001
q4
2003
q3
2005
q2
2007
q1
Perc
ent C
hang
e
Regional Economic Outlook
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Office Vacancy Rates
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-0
6
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-0
7
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-0
8Sep
-08
Quarter
Perc
enta
ge
Northern Virginia
Washington DC Metropolitan
Alexandria
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Annual Changes in Jobs 1991‐2007Washington Metro
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Annual Job Change Northern Virginia
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Federal Spending by Type 1983‐2007
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia All Housing Types
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
Alexandria Economic Outlook
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Alexandria Economic Positives
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
• Location, Location, Location
• Creative Class Economy
• Quality of Life
• Low Unemployment
• High Avg. Incomes
• Economic Sustainability Implementation
• National Harbor, tourism
• BRAC jobs
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Forecast
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
• National recession for most of 2009
• Recovery “L” shaped
• Regional job growth slower
• Re‐engineering of credit system causes:– Tempering of housing demand
– Lower vehicle and retail sales
– More equity required by all
– Credit market limits
– Multi‐quarter recession
FY 2010 Council Retreat
Two Tales of One City
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
• No recession economy in City likely
• Employment stable; federal contracting will grow
• Tourism, business travel stable
• Declining tax revenues, largely due to negative real and personal property values
• Discretionary consumer spending decreasing
Conclusion: The economy of the City will be less negatively impacted than the finances of the City Government.
