1 2007-08 Department of Curriculum and Instruction Retreat 2007-08.
Economic Outlook: 2007 Ends in Recessionsfc.virginia.gov/pdf/retreat/2007 Retreat -...
Transcript of Economic Outlook: 2007 Ends in Recessionsfc.virginia.gov/pdf/retreat/2007 Retreat -...
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Presentation Prepared for:The Virginia Senate
Blacksburg, VirginiaNovember 15th, 2007
Economic Outlook: 2007 Ends in Recession
Presented by:Kathleen CamilliCamilli Economics, LLC
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Mission Statement
The mission of Camilli Economics, LLC is to deliver insightful economic analysis and to teach people about the workings of the capitalist system and financial markets so that they may live prosperously and fulfilled.
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index1992=100
0500959085807570Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute /Haver Analytics 11/02/07
150
125
100
75
50
150
125
100
75
50
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
FCM10 - FCM3M
05009590858011/02/07
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate %
FCM10 - FCM3M
05009590858011/02/07
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Recession
• Are we in one yet? Most likely
• Camilli put recession probability at 30% on 1/1/07, 80% on 8/10/07, 90% on 9/10/07, 95% on 10/8/07, 99% on 11/7/07.
• In the recent past, the US economy has remained incredibly resilient in the face of shocks
• Each and every economic expansion and recession are unique because the economy is never exactly the same at any two points in time.
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Stock Price Index: Standard & Poor's 500 Composite% Change - Year to Year 1941-43=10
University of Michigan: Consumer ExpectationsNSA, Q1-66=100
050095908580757065Sources: WSJ, UMICH /Haver 11/02/07
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
120
100
80
60
40
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
All Employees: Total NonfarmDifference - Period to Period SA, Thous
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr +SA, %
0500959085Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 11/02/07
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
All Employees: Temporary Help ServicesDifference - Period to Period SA, Thous
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr +SA, %
0500959085Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 11/02/07
80
40
0
-40
-80
-120
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Personal Income% Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.$
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr +SA, %
0500959085Sources: BEA, BLS /Haver 11/02/07
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Households, Nonprofit Organizations: Total AssetsBil.$
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$
0500959085Sources: FRB, BEA /Haver 11/07/07
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
-5.0
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Households, Nonprofit Organizations: Total AssetsBil.$
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$
05009590858075706560555045Sources: FRB, BEA /Haver 11/02/07
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
22.5
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Households: Assets: Total Owner-occupied Real EstateBil.$
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$
05009590858075706560555045Sources: FRB, BEA /Haver 11/02/07
24000
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
22.5
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Households: Total Financial AssetsBillions of Dollars
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$
05009590858075706560555045Sources: FRB, BEA /Haver 11/02/07
45000
37500
30000
22500
15000
7500
0
22.5
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Home Builders: Housing Market Index {Composite}SA, All Good = 100
OFHEO House Price Index, United States% Change - Year to Year NSA, Q1-80=100
050095908580Sources: NAHB, OFHEO /Haver 11/02/07
80
60
40
20
0
16
12
8
4
0
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
OFHEO House Price Index, United States% Change - Year to Year NSA, Q1-80=100
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$
0500959085807570Sources: OFHEO, BEA /Haver 11/02/07
16
12
8
4
0
10
5
0
-5
-10
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Personal Income% Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.$
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$
050095908580757065Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics 11/02/07
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Homeownership Rate: United StatesSA, %
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$
05009590858075Sources: CENSUS, BEA /Haver 11/02/07
70
68
66
64
62
10
5
0
-5
-10
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
University of Michigan: Consumer ExpectationsNSA, Q1-66=100
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$
05009590858075Sources: UMICH, BEA /Haver 11/02/07
120
100
80
60
40
10
5
0
-5
-10
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
University of Michigan: Consumer ExpectationsNSA, Q1-66=100
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr +SA, %
05009590858075Sources: UMICH, BLS /Haver 11/02/07
120
100
80
60
40
12
10
8
6
4
2
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
University of Michigan: Consumer ExpectationsNSA, Q1-66=100
Households, Nonprofit Organizations: Total AssetsBil.$
05009590858075Sources: UMICH, FRB /Haver 11/02/07
120
100
80
60
40
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.
Thank You
Presented by:Kathleen CamilliCamilli Economics, LLC