ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WEEK

François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist • Mathieu D’Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist • Francis Généreux, Senior Economist • Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist

Desjardins, Economic Studies: 514-281-2336 or 1 866-866-7000, ext. 5552336 • desjardins.economics@desjardins.com • desjardins.com/economics

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.

ECONOMIC STUDIES | JULY 27 TO 31, 2020

Please note that there will be no release of the Weekly Newsletter from July 6 to

August 14, 2020 inclusive.

MONDAY 27 8:30 Durable goods orders (m/m) June 7.0% 6.5% 15.7%

TUESDAY 28 9:00 S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (y/y) May 4.10% 4.10% 3.98% 10:00 Consumerconfidence July 94.4 99.0 98.1

WEDNESDAY 29 8:30 Goods trade balance – preliminary (US$B) June -74.3 -74.2 -74.3 10:00 Pending home sales (m/m) June 15.6% n/a 44.3% 14:00 Federal Reserve meeting July 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 14:30 Speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, J. Powell

THURSDAY 30 8:30 Initial unemployment claims July 20-24 1,410,000 1,350,000 1,416,000 8:30 Real GDP (ann. rate) Q2f -35.0% 025.0% -5.0%

FRIDAY 31 8:30 Employment cost index (q/q) Q2 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 8:30 Personal income (m/m) June -0.8%% 0.6% -4.2% 8:30 Personal consumption expenditures (m/m) June 5.4% 0.5% 8.2% 8:30 Personalconsumptionexpendituresdeflator Total (m/m) June 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% Excluding food and energy (m/m) June 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Total (y/y) June 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% Excluding food and energy (y/y) June 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 9:45 Chicago PMI index July 44.5 50.0 36.6 10:00 Michigan’sconsumersentimentindex–final July 72.8 79.0 73.2

CANADA

Previous data Day Hour Indicator Period Consensus

UNITED STATES

Note: Desjardins, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. Theabbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). Forecast of Desjardins, Economic Studies of the Desjardins Group.

MONDAY 27 --- ---

TUESDAY 28 --- ---

WEDNESDAY 29 --- ---

THURSDAY 30 8:30 Average weekly earnings (y/y) May n/a 6.7% 9.1% 8:30 Number of salaried employees (m/m) May n/a 2.0% -11.4%

FRIDAY 31 8:30 Industrial product price index (m/m) June 1.1% 2.2% 1.2% 8:30 Raw materials price index (m/m) June 7.0% 6.8% 16.4% 8:30 Real GDP by industry (m/m) May 3.5% 5.5% -11.6%

ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WEEK

François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist • Mathieu D’Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist • Francis Généreux, Senior Economist • Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist

Desjardins, Economic Studies: 514-281-2336 or 1 866-866-7000, ext. 5552336 • desjardins.economics@desjardins.com • desjardins.com/economics

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.

ECONOMIC STUDIES | JULY 27 TO 31, 2020

Please note that there will be no release of the Weekly Newsletter from July 6 to

August 14, 2020 inclusive.

Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours).

Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y Country Hour Indicator Period

OVERSEAS

Consensus m/m (q/q) y/y

DURING THE WEEKUnited Kingdom --- Nationwide house prices July -0.1% -0.3% -1.4% -0.1%Germany --- Retail sales June -3.0% 3.0% 13.9% 3.8%

MONDAY 27Japan 0:30 All industry activity index May -3.5% -6.4% Euro zone 4:00 Money supply M3 June 9.3% 8.9%Germany 4:00 Ifo survey – Business climate July 89.3 86.2 Germany 4:00 Ifo survey – Current situation July 85.0 81.3 Germany 4:00 Ifo survey – Expectations July 93.4 91.4

TUESDAY 28--- --- ---

WEDNESDAY 29France 2:45 Consumerconfidence July 99 97Japan 19:50 Retail sales June 8.0% -6.0% 2.1% -12.3%

THURSDAY 30Germany 2:00 Real GDP – preliminary Q2 -9.0% -10.9% -2.2% -2.3%Italy 4:00 Unemployment rate June 8.6% 7.8% Eurozone 5:00 Consumerconfidence–final July n/a -15.0Eurozone 5:00 Industrialconfidence July -17.0 -21.7Eurozone 5:00 Servicesconfidence July -24.0 -35.6Eurozone 5:00 Economicconfidence July 81.0 75.7Euro zone 5:00 Unemployment rate June 7.7% 7.4% Germany 8:00 Consumer price index – preliminary July -0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9%UnitedKingdom 19:01 Consumerconfidence July n/a -27.0Japan 19:30 Unemployment rate June 3.0% 2.9% Japan 19:50 Industrial production – preliminary June 0.9% -19.1% -8.9% -26.3%China 21:00 PMI manufacturing index July 50.8 50.9 China 21:00 PMI non-manufacturing index July 54.5 54.4

FRIDAY 31Japan 0:00 Vehicle production May n/a -46.1%Japan 1:00 Housing starts June -12.6% -12.3%France 1:30 Real GDP – preliminary Q2 -15.2% -20.0% -5.3% -5.0%France 2:45 Personal consumption expenditures June 6.5% -1.9% 36.6% -8.3%France 2:45 Consumer price index – preliminary July -0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%Italy 4:00 Real GDP – preliminary Q2 -15.0% -17.3% -5.3% -5.4%Euro zone 5:00 Consumer price index – preliminary July -0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%Euro zone 5:00 Real GDP – preliminary Q2 -12.0% -14.5% -3.6% -3.1%Italy 5:00 Consumer price index – preliminary July 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -0.2%Italy 6:00 Retail sales June n/a n/a 24.3% -10.5%