Economic Indicators: December 1978

95tb Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators

December 1978

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1978

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, ChairmanLLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Vice Chairman

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESHENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)PARREN ]. MITCHELL (Maryland)CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)GARRY BROWN (Michigan)MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)

SENATEJOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota)JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah)

JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSCHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman

LYLE E. GRAMLEYWILLIAM D. NORDHAUS

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]JOINT RESOLUTION fS J. Res. SB]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the JointEconomic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that asufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant atArms of the Senate; the Clerk. Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies tothe libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.

Approved June 23: 1949.

Charts draun by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copyor by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

iiDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $48.6 billion or 9.6 percent, both atannual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased 2.6 percent from the second quarter level andthe implicit price deflator rose at a 6.9 percent annual rate.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

1,400

1,200

1,0001971

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,0001979

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

I Billions of current dollars j quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19671968196919701971197219731974197519761977

1977:1II—III__IV__.

1978:1II —III—

Grossna-

tionalprod-uct

796.3868.5935.5982.4

1, 063. 41. 171. 11, 306. 61, 412. 91, 528. 81, 700. 11, 887. 2

1, 806. 81, 867. 01, 916. 81, 958. 1

1, 992. 02, 087. 52, 136. 1

Per-sona]con-

sump-tionex-

pend-itures

490.4535.9579.7618.8668.2733.0809.9889.6979. 1

1, 090. 21, 206. 5

1, 167. 71, 188. 61, 214. 51, 255. 2

1, 276. 71, 322. 91, 356. 9

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

120.8131.5146.2140.8160.0188.3220.0214.6190.9243.0297.8

272.5295.6309.7313.5

322.7345.4350. 1

Exporlgooc

Netex-

ports

492.31.83.91.6

-3.37. 16.0

20.47.4

-11.1

-8.5-5.9-7.0

-23.2

-24.1-5.5

-10.7

ts and imfIs and ser

Ex-ports

45.649.954.762.565.672.7

101.6137.9147. 3163.2175.5

170.9178.1180.8172. 1

181.7205.4210. 1

>orts ofvices

Im-ports

40.647.752.958.564.075.994.4

131.9126.9155.7186.6

179.4184.0187.8195.2

205.8210.9220. 8

Go^

Total

180. 2198.7207.9218.9233.7253. 1269.5302.7338.4359.5394.0

375.0388.8399.5412.5

416.7424.7439.8

yernment

Total

90.99&097.595.696.2

102. 1102.2111. 1123.1129.9145. 1

138.3142.9146.8152.2

151.5147.2154.0

purchasesservices

Federal

Na-tional

de-fense l

71.576.976.373.570.273.573.577.083.786.894.3

91.993.794.497. 1

97.998.699.6

of goods

Non-de-

fense

19.521.221.222. 126.028.628.734 139.443. 150.8

46.449.352.455. 1

53.648.654.5

and

Stateandlocal

89.3100.7110.4123.2137.5151. 0167.3191.5215.4229.6248.9

236.7245.9252.7260.3

265.2277.6285.8

Finalsales

786.2860.8926.2978.6

1, 057. 11, 161. 71, 28a 61, 404 01, 539. 61, 689. 91, 871. 6

1, 796. 51, 850. 01, 894 91, 945. 0

1, 975. 32, 067. 42, 122. 5

1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense,shown on p. 33.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS

[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)

Period

19671968196919701971- — —197219731974197519761977

1977: 1—II—III—IV._.

1978: !___-II—III—

Grossnationalproduct

1, 007. 71, 051. 81, 078. 81, 075. 31, 107. 51, 171. 11, 235. 01, 217. 81, 202. 31, 271. 01, 332. 7

1, 306. 71,325.51, 343. 91, 354. 5

1, 354. 21, 382. 61, 391. 4

Per-sonalcon-sump-tion

expend-itures

603.2633.4655.4668.9691. 9733.0767.7760.7774.6819.4857.7

846.6849.5858.0876.6

873.5886.3895.1

Grossii

Non-resi-

dentialfixed

103.5108.0114.3110.0108.0116.8131.0130.6113.6118.9129.8

126.8129. 1130.8132.5

133.8140.5141.7

private dcavestment

Resi-dentialfixed

37.242.843.240.452.262.059.745.038.847.857.7

53.558.058.860.3

59.559.959.7

>mestie

Changein busi-ness in-vento-

ries

12.08.7

10.64.36.69.4

16.58.0

-9.86.78.9

5.810.012.27.5

12.312.79.0

Exia

KT^-fiNetexports

3.5— . 4

-1.31.4

-.6-3.3

7.615.922.615.49.5

11.211.012.53. 1

2.911.39.2

jorts of g<nd service

Exports

54.258.562.267. 167.972.787.493.090.095.998.2

97. 198.9

100.896.0

99. 1108.4109.0

>odsJS

Imports

50.758.963.565.768.575.979.977. 167.580.588.7

85.987.988.292.9

96.297. 199.7

Govern!good

Total

248.3259.2256. 7250.2249.4253. 1252. 5257. 7262.6262. 8269.2

262. 8267.9271.7274.5

272. 1271.9276.7

nent pures and ser

Federal

125.3128.3121.8110.7103.9102. 196. 695.896.596.6

101.6

98.7101.3102.9103.6

101.297. 1

100.4

bases ofvices

Stateandlocal

123. 1130.9134.9139. 5145.5151. 0155. 9161.8166. 1166.2167. 6

164. 1166.6168.8170.9

170.8174.8176.3

Finalsales

995.71, 043. 11, 068. 21, 071. 01, 100. 91, 161. 71, 218. 51, 209. 91, 212. 11, 264. 41, 323. 8

1, 300. 91, 315. 51, 331. 71, 347. 1

1, 341. 81, 369. 91, 382. 4

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

[1972=100]

Period

1967196819691970_1971197219731974197519761977

1977:1IIIIIIV

1978:1IIIII

Grossnationalproduct

79.0282.5786.7291.3696.02

100. 00105. 80116.02127. 15133. 76141. 61

138. 27140. 86142. 63144. 56

147. 10150. 98153. 52

Persona

Total

81.384688.592.596.6

100. 0105.5116.9126. 4133. 1140.7

137.9139.9141.6143. 2

146.2149.3151.6

I consump

Durablegoods

87.490.793. 195.599.0

100.0101.6108.4117.71244129.5

128.4128.9129.5130. 9

133. 1135.7137.8

>tion expe

Non-durablegoods

81.985.389.493.696.6

100.0107.9123.8133.4138.2145.0

142.4144. 7145.7147.0

150.41544156.2

nditures

Services

78.882.086. 190.595.8

100.01047113. 6123.2131.6141.0

137.4139.7142.31444

147. 1149.9152.6

Grossdom

invesl

Nonres-idential

fixed

79.382.686.691.396. 4

100.0103.8115.3132.2138.4146.7

142.5145.0147.9151.2

153.6156.7160.6

privateesticbment

Resi-dentialfixed

77.080.787.790.6949

100.0110.8122.3132.8142. 5159.4

152.3157. 6160. 6166. 1

168.6175.7182.6

Exporimports

and sc

Exports

84085.387.993. 196.6

100.0116.2148.3163.6170. 1178.7

176. 1180.0179.4179.2

183.3189.4192.8

ts andof goodsjrvices

Imports

80. 180.983.389. 193.5

100.0118.2171.0188.0193.5210.3

208.9209.3212.9210.2

213.8217.2221.5

Governrchases

and s

Federal

72.676.480.086.492.6

100.0105.8115.9127. 51344142. 7

140. 1141. 1142.7146.9

149.6151. 5153.4

nent pur-of goodssrvices

Stateandlocal

72.576.981.988.3945

100.0107.3118.4129.7138. 1148.5

1443147.6149.7152.3

155.2158. 8162. 1



CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19671968196919701971197219731974197519761977

1977: IIIIIIIV

1978: IIIIII

Cur-rentdol-

5.89. 17.75.08.2

10. 111.68. 18.2

11.211.0

13.714.011. 18.9

7.120.69.6

Gross

Con-stant(1972)dol-lars

2.74. 42.6-.33.05.75.5

-1.4-1.3

5.74.9

7.35.95.73.2

-t8.72.6

national p

Im-plicitpricede-

flator

2.94.55.05.45. 14. 15.89.79.65.25.9

6. 07.75. 15.5

7.211.06.9

product

Chainpriceindex

3.04.45.05.35.04. 16.09.99.45. 66.2

6.67.34.66.5

7. 110.87.6

Fixed-weight-

edpriceindex(1972

weights)

3.04.35.05.24.94.06.0

10.29.35. 66.3

7.07.4476.8

7. 011.07.6

Cur-rentdol-

5.79. 17.85.08. 1

10. 111.57.98.5

11.010.9

13.313.911.29.5

6.720. 110. 2

Gross <

Con-stant(1972)dol-lars

2.74.42.6-.32.85.85.4

-1.3— 1. 1

5. 648

7. 15.85.83.5

^8.33.0

domestic \

Im-plicitpricede-

flator

3.04.55. 15.35. 14 15.79.39.75.25.8

5.77.75. 15.8

7. 110.97.0

>roduct

Chainpriceindex

3. 1445.05.35.04 15.99.69.45.76. 1

6.47.4456.7

7. 110.97.5

Fixed-weight-

edpriceindex(1972

weights)

3.0445.05.249405.99.99.35.76.3

6.87.54.67.0

7.011.07.6

NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes fromprevious quarter.


NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19671968196919701971197219731974197519761977

1977: III- —III..IV__.

1978: 1II....III*L_

Gross cprodi

nonfincorpcbusi

(billicdoll

Currentdollars

452.9498.4541.8560. 6602.5671. 0752.0808.8874 1988.5

1, 103. 2

1, 048. 51, 093. 31, 124 61, 146. 3

1, 161. 61, 233. 01, 260. 6

omesticict ofancial3rateness>ns ofars)

1972dollars

545.8581.6607.3600.6619.3671.0720.4695.0680.0730.0769.3

750.2766.9776.7783.6

783.6811.9814.9

C

Totalcostand

profit 2

0.830.857.892.933.973

1.0001. 0441. 1641.2851.3541.434

1.3981.4261.4481.463

1.4821. 5191.547

urrent-do

Capitalcon-

sumptionallow-anceswith

capitalcon-

sumptionadjust-ment

0.072.074.079.088. 094.093.095.116. 142.146. 150

. 149

. 149

. 151

. 152

. 155

. 153

. 158

.lar cost a

Indirectbusinesstaxes *

0.084.089.094. 103. 110. 110. 112. 123. 136. 136. 140

. 140

. 139

. 140

. 142

. 145

. 145

. 145

nd profit

Com-pen-

sationof

employ-ees

0.535. 553.589. 628.645.661.699.796.848.891.952

.932

.946

.955

.973

1.0081.0171.038

per unit

Netin-

terest

0.016.017.022.028.029.028.032.043. 045.042. 044

.043

.043

.044

.045

.046

. 045

.046

of outpu

Corpoinventc

capita

Total

0. 123. 124. 109.086.095. 107. 105.086. 113. 139. 148

. 134

. 148

. 158

. 151

.129

. 157

. 160

t (dollars)

rate profi3ry valuatal consuirtdjustmen

Profitstax

liability

0.051.058.055.045.048.050. 055. 061.060. 073.077

.075

.078

.076

.077

.071

.086

.086

i

bs withion andiptionts

Profitsaftertax4

0.072.066.055.041.046.057.050.024.053.066.071

.059

.070

.082

.074

.057

.071

.074

Outputper

hourof all

employ-ees

(1972dollars)

6.8737. 1057. 1397. 1327.3747.5957. 7887. 4897.7217. 9628.057

7.9918.0258. 1138. 103

8.0538. 1398. 166

Com-pen-

sationper

hourof all

employ-ees

(dollars)

3.6763.9294 198447847575.0245.4465.9586. 5507. 0937.667

7.4517.5907.7467.881

8. 1178.2818.471

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporatemsiness in 1972 dollars.

3 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial cor-porate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.

8 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer paymentsless subsidies.

* With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

196719681969 .19701971197219731974197519761977

1977: IIIIIIIV

1978:1IIIII

Na-tional

income

655.8714.4767.9798.4858. 1951.9

1, 064. 61, 136. 01, 215. 01, 359. 21, 515. 3

1, 447. 51, 499. 31, 537. 61, 576. 9

1, 603. 11, 688. 11, 728. 4

Com-pensa-tion of

em-ploy-ees l

471.9519.8571.4609.2650.3715. 1799.2875.8931. 1

1, 036. 81, 153. 4

1, 107. 91, 140. 51, 165. 81, 199. 7

1, 241. 01, 287. 81, 317. 1

Proprincom

inventortion anc

consuradjust

Farm

12. 112.013.913.914.318.032.025.423.518.420.2

19.420.016.525.1

21.924.025.0

letors*e withy valua-l capitalnptionments

Non-farm

48.951.452.351.253.458. 160.460. 963.570.279.5

76. 178.980.882.3

83. 186. 189.6

Rentalincomeof per-

withcapital

con-sump-tion

adjust-ment

19.418.618. 118. 620. 121.521. 621.422.422.522.5

22. 522.422.422.7

22.822.224. 3

Corporand

Total

79.385.881.467.977.292. 199. 183.695.9

127.0144.2

129.9143.7154.8148.2

132.6163.4165.2

ate profit*capital co

Profitsvaluaiand i

consum

Total

75.682. 177.966.476.989.697.286.5

107.9141. 4159. 1

144. 5158.5169.9163.5

148.7180. 6184.5

* with invnsumptio

> with invbion adjuswithout C2ption adji

Profitsbefore

tax

77.385.683.471.582.096.2

115.8126.9120.4155.9173.9

1648175. 1177.5178.3

172. 1205. 5205.4

entory vati adjustm

entorytmentipitalistment

Inven-tory

valua-tvirtn

adjust-ment

-1.7-3.4-5.5-5. 1-5.0-6.6

-18.6— 40.4-12.4-14.5-148

-20.3-16.6-7.7

-148

-23.5-249-20.9

iuationents

Capitalcon-

sump-tion

adjust-ment

3.73.73.51.5.3

2.51.9

-2.9— 12. 0-144-149

-146-148-15.0-15.3

-16. 1-17.2-19.3

Netinterest

24326.830.837.542.847.052.369.078.684395.4

91.793.797.399.0

101.71046107.4

i Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1967196819691970....1971 .'__197219731974197519761977

1977:1IIIII....IV

1978:1IIIII™.

Totalpersonal

con-sumptionexpendi-

tures

490.4535.9579. 7618.8668.2733.0809.9889.6979. 1

1, 090. 21, 206. 5

1, 167. 71, 188. 61, 214. 51, 255. 2

1, 276. 71, 322. 91, 356. 9

D

Totaldurablegoods l

69.680.085.584997. 1

111.2123.7122.0132.6156. 6178.4

173.2175.6177.4187.2

183.5197.8199.5

urable goo<

Motorvehicles

andparts

29. 735.837.734943.850.655.248.053.469.781.5

81.381.279.5840

84 192.589.8

Is

Furni-tureand

house-hold

ment

29.532.635.036.739.444850.754958.063.971.3

68.069.972.075.3

72. 176.578.9

Totalnon-

durablegoods 1

212.6230.4247.02647277.7299.3333.8376.3408.9442.6479.0

465.9473.6479.7496.9

501.4519.3531.7

Nondura

Food

109. 6118.3126. 1136.3140.6150.4168. 1189.8209.6225.8245.2

237.52445246.4252.6

257.7267.8272.0

ble goods

Clothingand

shoes

38.241.845.146.650.555. 161.365.370. 175.781.5

78.579.381.486.7

82.987.590.5

Gasolineand oil

17.018.420.422.023.424 927.836.439.542.846.5

46.146.246.047.5

48.349. 151.5

Services

208. 1225.6247.2269. 1293.4322.4352.3391.3437.5491.0549.2

528. 6539.4557.5571. 1

591.8605. 8625.8

Retailnew pacars (n

of ui

Do-mes-tics

7.68.68.57. 18.79.39.77.57. 18.69. 1

9.49.28.99.0

8.710.09.3

sales ofssengerlillionsaits)

Im-ports

0.81.01. 11.31.61.61.81.41.61.52. 1

1.92.32.02.0

2. 12. 12.0

1 Total includes other items not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $17.3 billion (annual rate) in November following revised increases of $22.5 billion in Octoberand $13.6 billion in September. Wages and salaries rose $11.8 billion in November, compared with $16.5 billion inOctober. All other major types of income also rose in November.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAL| BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,00)

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMWTS

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1978

COWNClt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19701971197219731974197519761977

1977: OctNovDec

1978: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly._._Aug_ —Sept._.Oct *___Nov *_ _

Totalpersonalincome

801.3859. 1942.5

1, 052. 41, 154 91, 255. 51, 380. 91, 529. 0

1, 577. 01, 592. 71, 609. 2

1, 615. 51, 625. 01, 646. 31, 669. 41, 682. 11, 695. 71, 719. 21, 731. 11, 744. 71, 767. 21, 784. 5

Wageand

salarydisburse-ments l

546.5579.4633.8701.3764.6805.9890. 1983. 6

1, 014. 11, 022. 31, 027. 3

1, 038. 31, 047. 41,066.61, 083. 91, 088. 41, 098. 41, 108. 21, 111.31, 120. 11, 136. 71, 148. 4

Otherlabor

income1 2

32.036.242. 048.755.665. 177.090.4

94.896. 197.3

98.7100.0101.3102.7104.0105.4106.7107.9109. 1110.4111.8

Proprietc

Farm

13.914.3iao32.025.423.518.420.2

22. 124.628.5

25.621. 518.622.024.825.324. 024. 926.027.328.7

)rs* income *

Nonfarm

51.253.458.160.460.963.570.279. 5

81.482.283.2

82.083.084.485.586. 186.788.490. 190.291.592.0

Rentalincome

ofpersons *

18.620. 121.521.621.422.422.522.5

22.422.622. 9

23.022.822.622. 322. 122. 124.324.324.224.324.4

Divi-dends

22.923.024627.831. 031.937.943.7

45. 145.548.3

46.847. 047.247.448. 049.049. 250. 350.751. 151.6

Personalinterestincome

64369.374684 1

103.0115.5126.3141.2

145.3145.5147.3

149.6151.4153.31548156. 5157.6159.6161. 9163. 6165.2166. 6

Transferpay-

ments 8

79.994 1

1041118.9140.8178.2193.9208.8

214. 2216.5217. 2

218. 1219.0220. 3219.7221. 3220.8229.0230. 8231.5232.2233. 1

Less: Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance

28.030.834242.247.750. 555.561.0

62.462.662.8

66.567.068.068.969.069.670.370.470.871.572. 1

Non-farm

personalincome 8

780. 7838.0917.3

1, Oil. 91, 119. 31, 220. 81, 349. 51, 494. 4

1, 540. 11, 553. 11, 565. 5

1, 574 71, 588. 31, 612. 51, 631. 91, 641. 81, 654 71, 679. 41, 690. 31, 702. 61, 723. 61, 739. 2

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differsfrom compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contribu-tions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.

2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfarefunds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.

3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.4 With capital consumption adjustment.

s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veteranspayments.

8 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm otherlabor income, and agricultural net interest.



DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)1,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

3,000

2,0001970 1971

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1978

- 3,000

2,000

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1969__ __1970 _ „1971 _19721973___ .1974__ „_1975__ . _1976_1977

1977: !____II—III-IY._

1978:I___»II...III__

Per-sonal

income

745.8SOL 3859. 1942.5

1, 052. 41, 154. 91, 255. 51, 380. 91, 529. 0

1, 470. 71, 508. 6L, 543. 71, 593. 0

1, 628. 91, 682. 41, 731. 7

T «O.CT •.Less:PAT

sonaltaxandnon-tax

pay-ments

Bil

115.4115.3116.3141.2150.8170.3168.8196.5226.0

222.7223.3224. 6233.3

237.3249. 1263.2

Equals:Dispos-

ableper-

sonalincome

llions of d

630.4685. 9 J

742.8801.3901. 79846

1, 086. 71, 184. 41, 303. 0

1, 248. 01, 285. 31, 319. 11, 359. 6

1, 391. 61, 433. 31, 468. 4

Less:Per-sonalout-lays l

ollars

595.3635.4685.5751.9831.3913.0

1, 003. 01, 116. 31, 236. 1

Seas

1, 195. 81, 217. 81, 244. 81? 285. 9

1, 309. 21, 357. 01, 392. 5

Equals:Per-sonalsaving

35. 150.657.349.470.371.783.668.066.9

onally ad;

52.267.574.373.7

82. 476. 376.0

Per cdispc

persona

Currentdollars

3, 1113,3483,5883,8374,2854,6465,0885,5046,009

usted ann

5,7725,9346,0776,250

6,3876,5666,712

japita>sable. income

1972dollars

Dol

3,5153,6193,7143,8374,0623,9734,0254, 1364,271

oial rates

4, 1854,2414,2934,365

4,3704,3994,428

Per capsonal cc

tion exp

Currentdollars

lars

2,8603,0203,2273,5103,8494, 1974,5845,0665,564

5,4015,4875,5955,770

5,8596,0606, 202

dta per-msump-enditures

1972dollars

3,2343,2653,3423,5103,6483,5893,6273,8083,955

3,9163,9223,9534,030

4,0094,0604,092

Percentchangein real

percapitadispos-

ableper-sonal

income

1.53.02.63.35.9

-2. 21.32.83.3

1. 15. 55. 06.9

. 52.72. 7

Savingas per-cent ofdispos-

ableper-sonal

income

5.67.47.76.27.87.37.75. 75. 1

4. 25. 35. 65.4

5.95.35.2

Popula-tion

(thou-sands) 2

202, 677204, 878207, 053208, 846210, 410211, 945213, 566215, 191216, 856

216, 206216, 603217, 073217, 541

217, 897218, 290218, 769

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers tobusiness, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 andare averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for theperiod.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureaof the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the third quarter net farm income before inventory adjustment was unchanged while income after inventory adjust-ment rose $1 billion (annual rate).

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)'

120

100

80

60

40

GROSS FARM INCOME_BEFORE INVENTORY

ADJUSTMENTI

NET FARM INCOMEAFTER INVENTORY

ADJUSTMENT

120

100

80

60

40

20

10

II

_!_.v 20

101970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1977 1978


[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19701971197219731974 _1975197619771977: I

IIIII,__IV—.

1978: 1 _ _ _ _II__._III

Personaby tota"

Fromall

sources

27.528.834.648.945. 244.541.243.0

1 incomefarm po

Fromfarm

sources

13.013.516.929.223.421.916.918.3

receivedpulation

Fromnonfarmsources

14.515.317.819.721.822.724.424.7

Gross i

Total 1

58.660.670.195.5

100.096.9

104. 1108. 1108. 1106.7102.7114.8

115.8122.5122. 5

Qcome be]justrr

Caslr

Total

Billioi

50.552.961.287. 192.488.294.596. 197.695.791.399.6

102. 2109.0109.5

ore invenlent

h receiptsnarketing

Live-stockand

productsis of dolla

29. 630.635.745.941.443.046.247.646.346. 647.849.5

52.757.558.5

Income re

tory ad-

from3

Crops

rs

21. 022.325.541. 151. 145. 148.348.551.349. 143. 550. 1

49.551.551.0

ceived fro

Produc-tion ex-penses

44.447.452.365.672.275.983.088.087.587.086.091.4

93.596.096.0

m farmin

Net t(oper

Beforeinven-tory

adjust-ment

14. 113.217.829.927.721. 121. 120. 120.619.716.723.4

22.326.526.5

g

) farmators

Afterinven-tory

adjust-ment 2

14.214.618.733.326. 124. 518.820.619.620. 216. 825.5

22.324. 525.5

Net inccfarm a

ventorymei

Currentdollars

Dol

4,7995,0426,526

11, 8139,3498,8456,8487,5927,2407,4606,2109,420

8,3209,1409,510

me perfter in-adjust-

its

1967dollars 4

lars

4, 1264,1575,2088,8756,3305,4874,0164,1834,0904, 1303,3905,080

4,4104,7304,810

1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoneyincome famished by farms.

2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year.3 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is

held constant within a year.

< Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index.

Source: Department of Agriculture.


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the third quarter, according to revised data, profits before tax declined slightly while after tax-profits fell $1billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

240

200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

240

40


1978 1979


[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19671968196919701971197219731974 .1975197619771977: I

IIIIIIV

1978: IIIIII

Profit

Total *

75.682.177.966.476.989.697.286.5

107.9141.4159.1144.5158.5169.9163.5148.7180.6184.5

M (before

Total

72.678.974.262.672.484.790.476.9

101.8133.2149.51348148. 1159.5155.6139.2168.9175.4

tax) wit!adjustn

Dome

Finan-cial

9.010.411.312.614. 115.416.214.413.017.520.919.719.921.921.922.724.326.0

ti invent*lent l

?tie induIs

Total1

63.668.562.950.158.269.374.162.588.9

115.6128.6115. 1128.1137.6133.7116.6144. 6149.4

>ry valui

stries

fonfinan<

Manu-fae-tur-mg

37.941.236.827.132.440.644.136.648.365.674.766.477.474.780.269.887.887. 1

ition

3ial

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

8.910. 110. 19.4

11.713.314.712.920.724024.020.622.830.622. 116.722.025.8

Profitsbefore

tax

77.385.683.471.582.096.2

115.8126.9120.4155.9173.91648175. 1177.5178.3172.1205.5205.4

Taxlia-

bility

32.539.439.734537.741. 548.752.449.864 371.868.372. 372.873.970.085.086.2

Pro

Total

44 946.243.837.044 354667. 174570.691.7

102. 196.5

102.810481044102.1120.5119. 2

fits after

Divi-dends

20.121.922.622.923.024627.831.031.937.943.741.542.744 146.347.048. 150. 1

tax

Un-dis-trib-utedprof-

its

24724221.214 121.330.039.343.638.753.858.455.060. 160.658. 155. 172.469.2

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

-1.7-3.4-5.5-5.1— 5.0-6.6

-18.6-40.4-12.4-145— 148-20.3-16.6-7.7

-148-23.5-249-20.9

* See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumptionadjustments.

2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately,s Includes industries not shown separately.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

8


GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $7.4 billion (annual rate) as non-residential construction outlays rose $4.3 billion and producers1 durable equipment purchases increased $3.1 billion.Residential investment outlays increased $3.7 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $13.6 billion, down 56.5billion from the second quarter level.


380

Oyifl

IJAA

oxn

oOfi

200

fQ A

-GROSS PRIV

-

-

_

- r*/

T'I i

ATE DOMESTIC

s — '

I 1 1

: INVESTMENT-

<*~*\

/

1 1 1

^ -

-

-

1 ) 1 1 1 1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)180 r ~~ ~~ •

- NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT160

BILHONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)130120

110

100

90

80

70 -

60

50

RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT

1975 1976 1977 1978

100

80

60

PRODUCERS'DURABLE EQUIPMENT

STRUCTURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

1979

40

20

0

-20

40

-CHANGE IN

-

y v j

-Ji i

1975

BUSINESS INN

/""""""""V

I i1976

^ENTORIES —

/^~\f

\ I I1977

"^^

I I1978

-

-

i i1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE


Period

19671968196919701971197219731974197519761977

1977:1IIIIIIV

1978:1IIIII

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

120.8131.5146.2140.8160.0188.3220.0214.6190.9243.0297.8

272.5295.6309.7313.5

322.7345.4350. 1

Nor

Total

82. 189.398.9

100.5104 1116.8136.0150.6150.21646190.4

180.6187.2193.5200.3

205.6220. 1227.5

^resident

Struc

Total

29.531.635.737.739.342.549.054553.857.363.9

59.363.465.467.4

68.576.680.9

ial fixed

tures

Non-farm

28.230.434336. 137.841. 146.951.851.354761.0

56.460.462.7645

65.273.478.0

investmc

Prodidurj

equip

Total

52.657.763.362.864774387.096.296.4

107.3126.5

1214123.8128. 1132.8

137. 1143.5146.6

mt

icers'ablement

Non-farm

48.053.458.958. 159.969. 180. 188.287.497.5

116.7

111.0113.8118.6123.4

127.2132.9135.5

Resid

Total

28.634537.936.649.662.066. 155. 151.568.291.9

81.691.494 3

100.2

100.3105. 3109.0

ential fis

Non-farmstruc-tures

27.233. 136.335. 147. 960.364352.749.565.888.9

78.688.491.297.5

97.3102. 1105.7

:ed inves

Farmstruc-tures

0.7.6.7.6.7.7.6

1.2.9

1. 11.5

1.61.61.61.2

1.31.41.5

tment

"Pi-rt

ducers'dur-able

equip-ment

0.7.8. 9.9

1.01. 11.21. 21. 11.31.5

1.41.41.51.6

1.71.81.7

Changeness inv

Total

10. 17.79.43.86.49.4

17.98.9

-10.710.215. 6

10.317.021. 913. 1

16.720. 113. 6

in busi-entories

Non-farm

9.47.69.23.75. 18. 8

14710.8

-14312.215. 0

11. 116.522.010.4

16.922. 1146


9


EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTCapital spending by business in 1978 is expected to be 12.7 percent above the 1977 level according to the CommeraDepartment survey conducted in late October and November.

8ILUON5 OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)180

I I I

"\MANUFACTURING

I I I J L

160

140

120

80

60

40

201971 1972 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOK.

SOUilCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1979


Period

1971..1972. _19731974.. _ ...197519761977 .1978*

1977: III._IV-. .

1978: IIIIII «.„_IV*...

1979: I 4

Total i

81. 2188.4499. 74

112. 40112. 78120. 49135. 80IBS. 09

140. 38138. 11

14425150. 76165. 41161. 24

IBS. S4

M

Total

29.9931.3538.0146.0147.9552.4860.1667.65

63.0261.41

61.5767.2067. 767S.20

73. 02

Ej

inufactur

Dur-able

goods

14. 1515.6419. 2522.6221.8423.6827.7731.76

29.2328.19

28.7231.4032.2634.19

34.13

rpenditurf

ng

Non-durablegoods

15. 8415.7218. 7623. 3926. 1128. 8132. 3936.90

33.7933.22

32. 8635. 8036. 6039. OS

38. 89

is for plan

Total

51.2257.0961. 7366.3964.8268.0175.6486. 44

77.3676.70

82.6883. 5687. 6688.04

90.31

t and equ

N

Mining

2. 162.422.743. 183.794. 004. 504.84

4.744.50

4.454.814.995. S3

4.94

ipment

onmanuf

Trans-porta-tion

4. 935.726.036.667.577.456.937.97

6.856.88

8.467.408.058. IB

10.09

acturing

Publicutili-ties

15. 3017. 0018. 7120. 5520. 1422. 2825.8029. 16

26. 2226. 23

27. 9228.4620. SIS30. 59

SO. 79

Com-muni-cation

10.7711.8912.8513. 9612. 7413.3015.4518. 04

16.4015.82

17.0718. 1818.90

44-

44-

Com-mer-cialand

other 2

18.0520. 0721.4022.0520.6020. 9922. 9725. 4S

23. 1423.27

24.7624. 7126.0907

59

Startsand eqt

proj

Manu-factur-

ing

28. 0035. 2147.5752. 4948.2451. 0566. 73

19.8116.54

17.4118. 1016. 96

jf plantlipmentsets3

Publicutili-ties

22. 2228.6038. 1345. 7434. 5029. 6632. 54

10. 237. 99

7.987. 784-40

1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educa-tional, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do notagree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross nationalproduct estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlayscharged to current account.

10

2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.' Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during

given period.* Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and

November 1978. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCESeasonally adjusted employment increased by 543,000 in November while unemployment increased by 42fOOO.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

80

10

0 U.

10

- 5

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.

SOURCEs DEPARTMf NT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over]

Period

19731974197519761977

1977: Nov..Dec..

1978: Jan*..Feb..Mar.-Apr-.May.June..July-Aug_.Sept._Oct_._Nov__

Nonin-stitu-tional

popula-tion

148, 263150, 827153, 449156, 048158, 559

Ui

159, 522159, 736

159, 937160, 128160, 313160, 504160, 713160, 928161, 148161, 348161, 570161, 829162, 033

Civilianemploy-

ment

84, 40985, 93584, 78387, 48590, 546

aadjusted

92, 47392, 623

91, 05391, 18591, 96493, 18093, 85195, 85296, 20296, 11695, 04196, 09596, 029

Unem-ploy-ment

4,3045,0767,8307,2886,855

6,3465,880

6,8976,7396,4795,6855,4576,3266,4385, 9315,7975,4605, 629

Totallaborforce

(includ-ing

ArmedForces)

91, 04093, 24094, 79396, 91799, 534

101, 009101, 048

101, 228101, 217101, 536101, 902102, 374102, 671102, 734102, 671102, 993103, 184103, 764

Civilianlaborforce

88, 71491, Oil92, 61394, 77397, 401

98, 87798, 919

99, 10799, 09399, 41499, 784

100, 261100, 573100, 618100, 549100, 870101, 062101, 647

C

Total

84, 40985, 93584, 78387, 48590, 546

92, 21492, 609

92, 88193, 00393, 26693, 80194, 11294, 81994, 42594, 58194, 86895, 19295, 735

ivilian ei

Agri-cul-tural

3,4523,4923,3803, 2973,244

Seas<

3,3573,323

3,3543,2423,3103,2753,2353,4733,3873,3603,4113,3803, 265

nploymen

Nonagri

Total

80, 95782, 44381, 40384, 18887, 302

Dnally adj

88, 85789, 286

89, 52789, 76189, 95690, 52690, 87791, 34691, 03891, 22191, 45791, 81292, 470

t

cultural

Part-timefor eco-nomic

reasons1

2,3112,7093,4903,2723,297

usted

3,2853,220

2,9863,1933,1643, 3273,2433,4583,3303,2943,2313,2073,171

Unemplc

Total

4,3045,0767,8307,2886,855

6,6636,310

6,2266,0906,1485,9836,1495,7546, 1935,9686,0025,8705,912

syment

15weeksandover

812937

2,4832,3391,911

1,8291,797

1,6881,5681,4631,3841,3581,2311,2921,2151,2931,3701,251

Labor

partici-_X* --_.pationrateCnpr-vper-

r»f»nt1 2

61.461.861.862. 162.8

63.363.3

63.363.263.363.563.763.863.863.663.763.864. 0

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material short-ages, inability to find full-time work, etc.

2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age andover.

* Beginning 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because ofrevisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force andto employment.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn November the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 5.8 percent. Unemployment among whites fehto 5.0 percent while black unemployment increased to 11.8 percent.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

10

* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19731974197519761977.1977: Nov

Dec1978: Jan

Feb.MarApr _ _May.__JuneJulyAugSeptOct .Nov

Total(aU

civil-ian

work-ers)

4.95.68.57.77.06.76.46.36.16.26.06. 15.76.25.96.05. 85.8

Unen

Bys

Men20

yearsand

3.23.86.75.95.24.74.6474.54.54.24.23.94. 14. 14.04.04.0

iploymei

ex and a

Women20

yearsandover

4.85.58.07.47.06.96.66.15.75.85.86.36.16.56. 16.05.65.8

at rate ('

ge

Bothsexes16-19years

14.516.019. 919.017.717.215.616.017.417.316.916.514.216. 315. 616.616.316.2

Dercent c

By

White

4.35.07.87.06.25.95.55.55.35.35.25.24.95.35.25.35. 15.0

f civiliai

race

Blackand

other

8.99.9

13.913.113. 113.712.712.711.812.411.812.311.912.511.711.211.411.8

i labor f<

I

Expe-riencedwageand

salaryworkers

4.55.38.27.36.66.36.05.95.75.75.55.65.45.75. 55.65.55.4

>rce in gi

3y select

House-hold

heads

2.93.35.85. 14,54.23.93.83.63.73. 63.73.63.93.73.73.53.4

*oup)

ed group

Full-timework-

ers

4.35. 18. 17.36.56.25. 95.85.75.65.45.65.25.75.55.55.35.2

s

Part-time

work-ers

7.98.6

10.310. 19.89.68.98.98.69.69.69.28.88.88.68.89. 19.0

Laborforcetimelost(per-

cent) l

5.26. 19. 18.37.67.37.06.86.66.66.36.66.46.86.66.56.36.3

* Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for eco-nomic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.


12Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSUR-ANCE PROGRAMSThe percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers decreased in November, while the percentage who werenew entrants or reentrants to the labor force rose.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

60

40

20

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

JOB LOSERS

JOB LEAVERS

•V-<?*<'NEW ENTRANTS

I I M 1 , I i I ,i I1975 1976

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

REENTRANTS

1977

60

40 X

20

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

1978 1975

27 WEEKSOVER

15-26WEEKS

1976 1977 1978


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1973__. _19741975__. __197619771977: Nov__

Dec....1978: Jan.__

Feb.__Mar__Apr— _May__June_ _July___Aug___Sept__Oct ^__Nov *_

Unem-ploy-ment(thou-sands)

4, 3045,0767,8307,2886,8556,6636,3106,2266,0906, 1485,9836, 1495,7546, 1935,9686, 0025,8705,912

Percenpl

Joblosers

38.743. 455.449.845. 344.743.442.941.640.341. 242.540.641.342.440. 143.541.3

it distriboyment 1

Jobleavers

15.714.910. 412.213.013.313.913.614.713.914.513. 514.714. 114. 014.213.713.8

ution oft>y reasoi

Reen-trants

30. 728.423. 826. 028. 128.529.829. 029.430. 928.929.230.630.428.832.229.330. 1

unem-i i

Newen-

trants

14.913. 310.412. 113. 713.613.014.514.214.915.414.814. 114.214.813. 513.614.8

Percerplo

Lessthan 5weeks

51. 050. 637. 038. 341.742. 441.343.243.345.846.848. 146.449. 046.846. 445. 947.8

it distribyment b

5-14weeks

30. 131.031. 329. 630.530.330.429.830.530.529.929.632.630.033. 032. 130.931. 1

ution ofy duratk

15-26weeks

11.011. 116. 513. 813. 113.914.813.815.012.412.011.211. 110.810.511.412.912. 2

unem-m*

27weeksandover

7.87.3

15.218.314. 813. 313.513.211.211.311.211. 19.9

10.29. 7

10. 110.38.9

State pi

Insuredunem-ploy-ment

Wee

1,6322,2623,9922,9682,4732,6022,5162,4612,5242,4062,2102,1672, 1942,3922,5502, 3612,2902,283

*ograms

Initialclaims

jkly aver

246363478382375354346344369326330331348377361330326336

Insuredunem-ploy-ment,

allregular

pro-grams 2

(unad-justed)

age, thou

1,7932,5584, 9433,8223,'1122,8533,2263,7813,6383,2122,6592,3692,2972,5812, 3942,0641,999

Specialunem-ploy-ment

benefitclaims *(unad-justed)

sands

1, 1731, 152

572315259192143102603621

1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Eico), ex-service-

men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includesFederal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federalsupplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).

a FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reportingbegan March 1975.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employmentand Training Administration).

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 467,000 in November.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

90 :

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS

SERVICE PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

.GOODS-PRODUCING-INDUSTRIES

1975 1976'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED


1977 1978 1979

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

20

18

16

14

22

20

18

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

-SERVICES-

GOVERNMENT

MANUFACTURING\

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I '

CONSTRUCTION

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979


[Thousands of wage and salary workers;& seasonally adjusted]

TO • JFeriod

197319741975_ _197619771977:Nov__

Dec—1978: Jan. _ _

Feb—Mar__AprMay__June__July._Aug__Sept__Oct*__Nov*>_

Totalnonagri-culturalemploy-

ment

76, 79078, 26576, 94579, 38282, 25683, 54983, 71983, 87184, 18884, 72685, 41885, 61885, 99686, 03386, 14986, 16386, 56787, 034

C

Total *

24, 89324, 79422, 60023, 35224, 28824, 61724, 62624, 64824, 72424, 92725, 31325, 34125, 47325, 50125, 46325, 47125, 66425, 878

Sroods-prc

Con-struc-tion

4,0974,0203,5253,5763,8333,9283,9553, 9053,9013,9994,1644,1754,2784,3174,2984,2984,3384,380

)ducing i

Ma

Total

20, 15420, 07718, 32318, 99719, 64719, 84919, 98420, 06520, 13920, 23020, 28220, 29720, 31620, 30220, 27820, 28620, 43220, 594

ndustries

-nufactui

Durablegoods

11, 89111, 92510, 68811, 07711, 57311, 74611, 85111, 91711, 98612, 04112, 07612, 09312, 10912, 13812, 14612, 16612, 30212, 398

I

ing

Non-durablegoods

8,2628,1527,6357,9208,0748, 1038,1338,1488,1538, 1898,2068,2048,2078,1648, 1328, 1208,1308,196

Total

51, 89753, 47154, 34556, 03057, 96858, 93259, 09359, 22359, 46459, 79960, 10560, 27760, 52360, 53260, 68660, 69260, 90361, 156

S

Trans-porta-tionand

publicutilities

4,6564,7254,5424,5824,6964,7364,7494,7584,7824,8174,8474,8474,8814,8274,8464,8554,9204,946

ervice-pr

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

16, 60716, 98717, 06017, 75518, 49218, 83018, 91118, 99119, 07119, 16919, 25219, 33519, 41219, 46919, 52319, 54619, 64019, 705

oducing

Finance,insur-ance,andreal

estate

4,0464, 1484,1654,2714,4524,5354,5474,5634,5914,6054,6234,6374,6704,6904,7074,7194,7374,795

Industrie

Services

12, 85713, 44113, 89214, 55115, 24915, 56815, 61815, 59715, 67015, 77315, 86615, 89615, 96315, 98916, 07416, 12716, 14916, 245

s

Gover

Federal

2,6632,7242,7482,7332,7272,7272,7232,7362,7362,7392,7452,7532,7722, 7652,7652,7522,7672,767

nment

Stateandlocal

11, 06811, 44611, 93712, 13812, 35212, 53612, 54512, 57812, 61412, 69612, 77212, 80912, 82512, 79212, 77112, 69312, 69012, 734

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagriculturalestablishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay periodwhich includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed per-sons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived fromthis table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employedpersons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based onreports from employing establishments.2 Includes mining, not shown separately.



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NON&GRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

196919701971197219731974 _197519761977

1977: NovDec

1978: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly.Aug __SeptOet »Nov 9

Aver

Totalprivatenonagri-eultural l

37.737. 136.937.036.936.536. 136. 136.0

36.035.9

35.535.736.036. 135.935.935.935.835.835.835.9

•age weekly

Manufi

Total

40.639.839.940. 540.740.039.540.140.3

40.540.5

39.840.140.640.840.440.540.540.340.440.440.6

tours

icturing

Overtime

3.63.02.93.53.83.32.63.13.4

3.63.6

3.53.73.73.83.53.63.63.43.63.63.7

Averaghourly

Totalprivatenonagn-cultural *

$3.043.233.453.703.944.244.534.865.24

5.395.41

5.465.495.545.615.625.665.715.735.775.825.86

56 grossearnings

Manufac-turing

$3.193.353.573.824094434835.225.67

5.855.88

5.935.986.016.056.086. 126. 186.206.286.336.37

Adjusted h

Index,, 1*

Currentdollars

113.2120.7129.2137.5146.0157.5170.7183.0196.8

202.4203.5

206.0206.6208.3210.3211.0212.3214 12146216.2217.9218.9

ourly earninnonagric

^67=100

1967dollars 8

103. 1103.8106.5109.7109.7106.6105.9107.3108.4

109.3109.4

109.9109.5109.5109.6109.0108.7109.0108.7108.7108.7

gs index — 1<cultural 2

Percent eha year

Currentdollars

6.66.67.06.46.27.98.47.27.5

7.47.4

7.87.67.98.28.08.18.28.28.3B.28.1

3tal private

ange fromearlier 4

1967dollars

1.2.7

2.63.00

-2.8-.71.31.0

.6

.6

1.01. 11.21.4.9.6.6.4. 1

-.5

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTORMI INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1969_ _19701971.19721973197419751976,19771977: Oct

NovDec

1978: Jan...FebMarApr .MayJuneJulyAug.SeptOct vNov 9

Total priagricu

Currentdollars

$114 61119. 83127. 31136. 90145. 39154 76163. 53175. 45188. 64193. 50194 04194 22193. 83195. 99199. 44202. 52201. 76203. 19204 99205. 13206. 57208. 36210. 37

Average

vate non-Itural l

1967dollars 3

$104 38103.04104.95109. 26109. 2310478101. 45102. 90103. 93104 93104 7710442103. 38103. 8610486105. 5910421104 04104 43103. 92103. 91103. 97

gross weekly <

Manufac-turing

(

$129. 51133. 33142. 44154 71166. 46177. 20190. 79209. 32228. 50235. 71236. 93238. 14236. 01239. 80244 01246. 84245. 63247. 86250. 29249. 86252. 50255. 73258. 62

earnings

Construction

Current dollars

$181. 54195. 45211. 67221. 19235. 89249. 25266. 08283. 36295. 29297. 30298. 48298. 29284 69297. 26312. 54315.93314 39322. 65323. 02323. 51323. 75323. 98325. 31

Wholesaleand retail

trade

i

$91. 3996.02

101. 09106. 45111. 76119. 02126. 45133. 79142. 19145. 62145. 31146. 30147. 48147. 15150. 15151. 80151. 34151. 86153. 64154 16155. 14156. 46157. 92

Percent chiyear e

total pri^agricu]

Currentdollars

6.44.66.27.56.26.45.77.37.58.37.67.47.36.17.88.37.57.98.18.58.58. 18.4

inge from aarlier,/ate non-Itural •

1967dollars

1.0-1.3

1.941-. 0

-41-3.2

1.41.01.7.8.5.5

— . 21.31.7.4.5.3.6.2

-. 6

1 i Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manu-facturing.

1 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index.Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.

* Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.5 Based on unadjusted data.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY

Period

1966_ __196719681969__, —

19701971197219731974 ..

197519761977 —

1976: IIII V _ _ _ _ .

1977: I! !_____IllIV

1978: IIIIII *___

1966196719681969

19701971__.197219731974 __

197519761977

1976:111IV

1977:1IIIIIIV

1978:1II. ___I I I » _ _ _

Out

Privatebusiness

sector

98.0100.0105. 1108.3

107. 3110.3117.6124.5121.5

118.8126.5133.2

127.1127.6

130. 5132.5134. 2135.5

135.3138.7139.7

5.52.05.13.0

-.92.86.65.9

-2.4

-2.36.55.3

2.81.6

9.36.55.04.0

-.610.52.9

put*

Non-farm

businesssector

98. 1100.0105.4108.6

107.4110.2117. 8125.0121.9

nas127.0133.6

127.7128. 1

131.0133.0134. 6135. 8

136.1139.8140. 5

6.01.95.43.0

-1. 12.66.96.0

-2.5

-2.56.95.2

2.51.2

9.46.25.03.5

.711.62.0

Hourspers

Privatebusinesssector

100.1100.0101.81046

103.0102.4105.5109.6110.3

105.6108.7112.6

108.5108.9

110.7112.9112. 9113.9

115.0117.6117.4

Percei

2.3

^1.82.8

-1.5-.63.13.9.7

-4.32.93.7

-.81.6

6.68.3

— . 13.7

4.09.2-.5

of allons2

Non-farm

businesssector

1967=

99.8100.0102. 1105.5

104.2103.8107.0111.6112.4

107.5111.0115.4

110.9111.5

113. 3115.5115.8116.7

117.8120.6120.5

at change

3.3.2

2.13.3

-1.2-.43.24.2.7

-4.33.33.9

22. 1

6.87.71.33.0

3.99.8-.3

Outputof all p

Privatebusinesssector

= 100; qua

98.0100.0103.3103.5

104.2107.8111.4113.6110.1

112.4116.4118.2

117.1117.2

117.9117.4118.9119. 0

117. 6118.0119.0

; quarterly

3.22.03.3. 2

.73.43.41.9

-3.0

2.13.51.6

3.6. 1

2.5-1.7

5. 1, 4

-4.51.23.4

>er hourpersons

Non-farm

businesssector

rterly dat

98.3100.0103.2102.9

103. 1106.3110. 1112.Q108.5

110.5114.4115.8

115.2114.9

115.6115.2116.2116.4

115.5116.0116. 6

y data at

2.61.73.2

Q

.1

3. 13.61.7

-3.1

1.93.51.3

2.7Q

2.4— 1. 4

3.7.5

-3. 11.72.3

Compeper 1

Pri-vate

businesssector

a season

94.9100.0107.6114.9

123. 1131.4139.7151. 1164.8

181.2197. 0213. 0

199.3203.6

207.5210.5215.3218.8

225. 2229.6235.3

seasonal]

7.15.47.66.8

7.16.76.38.29.1

9.98.78.1

9.68.9

7.95.89.56.7

12. 18. 1

10.4

nsationlour 3

Non-farm

businesssector

ally ad jus

94.8100. 0107. 3114. 1

121.7129. 9138.3149. 1162.7

178.8193.7209.3

195. 8199.9

203.9207. 1211.2215. 1

221.4225. 8231.0

y adjustei

6. 15.57.36.4

6.66.76.57.89. 1

9.98.48.1

9.08.5

8.36.58. 17.6

12. 28.29.5

UnitCO

Pri-vate

businesssector

ted

96.8100. 0104. 1111.0

118. 1122.0125.3133. 1149.7

161. 2169.3180.2

170.1173.8

176.0179.3181. 1183.9

191. 4194. 6197.8

i annual

3.83.34. 16.6

6.43. 32.86.2

12.5

7.75.06.4

5.88.8

5.37.64.26.3

17.46.86.7

laborsts

Non-farm

businesssector

96.4100.0104.0110.9

118. 1122. 3125.6133. 1150.0

161.8169.4180.8

170.1173.9

176.4179.8181. 7184.8

191.7194.7198. 1

rates

3.53.84.06.6

6.53.52.76.0

12.6

7.84.76.7

6.29.5

5.88.04.27. 1

15.76.47.1

Implicideflal

Pri-vate

businesssector

97.2100.0103.9108.8

113. 9118. 9123. 1130.2143.0

157.4165.4174.9

166.3168.5

170.6174.0176.3178.4

181.3186. 6190.0

3.22.93.94.7

4.74.43.65.89.8

10. 15. 15.7

4.45.4

5.28.25.24.9

6.712. 17.7

} pricetor4

Non-farm

businesssector

96.8100.0104.0108.6

114. 0119. 1122.8127.9141.3

156.3164.8174.6

165.7168.2

170.0173.6176.4178. 1

180.6185.3189. 1

2.93.34.04.5

4.94.53. 14. 1

10. 5

10.65.45.9

5.86. 1

4.48.76.54.0

5.810.88.5

1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, includinghours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily onestablishment data.

s Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for socialinsurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domes-tic product.

NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on originaldata; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexesshown here.

Data revised for 1966-1973.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


PRODUCTION AND ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production rose 0.7 percent in November, following increases of 0.5 percent in October and 0.4 percent inSeptember. The index for November was 7.3 percent above a year earlier.

INDEX, 1967= 100* (RATIO SCAL|160

140

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

1975 1976 1977 1978

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

NONDURABLE-̂ ?

*

INDEX, 1967= 100* (RATIO SCALE)180

10)

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

160

140

120

UTIUTJIS

MINING

l i 1 1 1 I I i i i 1 1 1 i 1 1 i

160

140

120

100

1974 1975 1976

rv\1977 1978

PERCENT (RATIO SCALE)

,100

90

80

70

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1974


SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1978


[Seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion197219731974197519761977

1977: OctNov...Dec

1978: JanFebMarAprMayJune.. _JulyAug _ _SeptOct ». _ .Nov 9

Total inprodu

Index,1967=

100

100. 00119.7129.8129.3117. 8129.8137. 1

138.9139.3139.7

138.8139. 2140.9143.2143.9144.9146. 1147. 1147.7148.5149.5

dustrialstion

Per-cent

changefromyear

earlier

9.28.4-.4

-8.910.25. 6

6.75.95.0

4.94.54. 15.25.05.25.36.56.66.97.3

IndusMi

Total

87.95118.9129.8129.4116.3129.5137. 1

139.4139.9140.5

138.7139.4141.4143.5144. 3145.5146.7147. 6148.5149.3150.3

stry prodiinufacturi

Dur-able

61.98113.7127. 1125.7109. 3121.7129.5

132.4132.7133.4

131. 1131.5134.4136.9137.6139.0141. 1142. 2142.9144. 1145. 1

iction indfng

Non-dur-able

85.97126.5133.8134 6126.4140.914a 1

149.6150. 1150.9

149.8150.6151.4153. 2154.0154.9155.0155.6156. 6157.0157.8

5xes, 1967

Mining

6.86113. 11147115.3112.81142117.8

119.6118.8113.4

115.01144119.3127.2126.7128.0127. 1126.0124.3127.9128.2

= 100

Utili-ties

5.69139.4145.4143.7146.0151.0156.5

15401542156.7

162.3163.5159. 5156.0157. 0158.6159.9160.8161.2161.6162. 1

Manufa

Federalser

Totalmanu-factur-

ing

83. 187.584273.680.282.4

82.982.983.0

81.781. 982.783.783. 984.384.785. 085.285.485. 7

cturing carate, pi

Reserveles

Mate-rials

88.092.487.773.680.481.9

82.482.381.9

81.981.381.984.084.585. 185.785.986. 286.687.0

i-pacity utj;rcent *

Com-merceseries a

838683778183

82

84

84

83

dization

Whar-ton

series s

91.897.192.980.487.590. 1

91.0

90.1

92.5

93.7

i Output as percent of capacity.3 Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.1 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages ofquarterly data.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department ofCommerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion __197019711972197319741975197619771977: Oct

NovDec

1978: JanFebMar__AprMay_._J\me__JulyAug.__ _. _SeptOct 9Nov 9

Total

47.82105.3106.3115.7124.4125.1118.2127.2134.9136.5137.0137.6134. 9136.4138.9140.5140. 5141. 1142.2143.3143.8144.5145.3

Coi

Total

27.68109. 0114.7124.4131.5128.9124.0136.2143.4144.9145.2145.8141.8143.8145.9147.5147.0147.0147.7148.4148.9149.8150.6

Final I

isumer go

Durablegoods

7.89106. 1118.8133.8146.2135.3121.4141.4153. 1156.8155.2155.8146.5151. 2157.5161.8160.2160.6160.9161.5160. 2162.6163.3

Prod

deducts

ods

Non-durablegoods

19.79110. 1113. 1120. 6125.6126.3125. 1134. 1139.6140.1141.2141.8139.9140.8141.3141. 8141. 7141.6142.4143. 1144.3144.7145.6

ucts

Equip

Total

20.14100. 194.7

103.8114. 5120.0110.2114. 6123.2125.0125.8126.2125.4126.2129.1130.8131.6133.0134.7136.3136.7137.2137.9

ment

Busi-ness

12.63107.0104. 1118.0134.2142.4128. 2136.3149.2152.6153.5154.0152.6154.2157.4159.3160.2161.8163. 8165.4166.0166.9168. 1

Intermprod

Total

12.89112.9116.7126.5137.2135.3123. 1137.2145. 1147.8148.4150.4151.6151.4151.4152. 1152.6154.7155.6156. 4156. 8157.4158.6

ediateucts

Con-structionsupplies

6.42111.0116.8128.4139.8134.5116.3132.6140.81449146. 5148.3149.2148.6147.9148.5150.4152.1153.5154.7155.7156.7157.9

Ma-terials

39. 29109.2111.3122.3133.9132.4115.5130.6136.9138.9139.0138.8139.2138.6139. 9143.7145.1146.4147.9148.6149.5150.5151.6

Sup-ple-men-tary

group:Energytotal

12.23117.0119.5125.2128.3125.5125.5128.8132.5133.0132.3129.7132.5130.0129.8133. 1134.2135.9136.4136. 1135.9137.4138.5

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion197019711972 _19731974 . __1975__197619771977: Oct

Nov _ _ _Dec

1978: Jan_.Feb_MarApr _ _May _. _Junei_JulyAug___ __SeptOct » _ _ _ _ __Nov *>__ _ „

Primari

Total

6. 57106.6100.2112. 1126.7123.196.4

108.9110.2113.5111.2111.0107.4106.2106.11143115.5117.5123.0126.0127.8128.4129.4

7 metals

Ironandsteel

4.21104796.1

107. 1122.3119.895.8

1049103.4107.7104.3103.899.596.396.4

109.0110.51145119.0120.9123.0123.7

Di

Fabri-catedmetalprod-ucts

5.93102. 4103.5112. 112471242109.9123. 3130.9133.8135.8136.4136.9136.9138. 1139.5140.4142.3144.0145. 8146.3146.6147.5

arable m

Non-

tricalma-

chin—ery

9. 161044100.2116. 0133.7140. 1125. 1135.01448148.9149.7151.7150. 1150. 1151. 5152. 2152. 91546156. 1157. 3158.7160.3161.7

anufactu

Elec-tricalma-chin-ery

8.05108. 1107. 7122.2143. 1143.8116.5131.6141. 9144 2146.0147.31440146. 4149.5152.3152.91541157.9156.9158.3158.3159. 1

res

Transp<equip

Total

9.2789.597.9

108.2118. 3108.797.4

110.6121. 1124.3122.0122.2116.2118.4126.5130. 5130. 1130.4132.1133.4132.9137. 3139. 1

srtationment

Motorve-

hiclesand

parts

4.5092.3

118.6135.8148.8128.2111. 1140.7159.7168.4163. 0161.8146.6153. 1165. 1171.7168.3167.7169.7171.0168.9177. 1179.5

Lum-berand

prod-ucts

1.64105.6113.8120.8126.0116. 2107.6125. 1133.4135.7137.5138. 1138.5135. 5136.5136.9136. 5138.7138.1136.9139. 2140.4

None

Ap-parelprod-ucts

8.31101.4104.7109.4117.3114.3107.6122.21242129.0125. 1125.8118.6121. 1122. 8126. 1125.8126. 8124. 5127.2130.7

lurable n

Print-ingandpub-

lishing

4.72107.0107. 1112.7118.2118.2113.3120.61247125.7126.2127.5129. 9128.3129.1128.6128.2128.7130.3129.5131.0131. 2131.6

lanufact

Chem-icalsand

prod-ucts

7.74120.4125. 9143.6154.5159.4147.2169.3180.7182.3183. 1183.01844183. 7185.2185. 5188. 1191. 1192.3192. 2192. 8193.9

ures

Foods

8. 75108. 9112.8116.8120.91240123.4132.3137.9137.3139.4140.4139.3140. 8141. 1143. 1142. 8141.8142.9144.0144 2143.8

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION

Period

1971197219731974 i197519761977 .

1977: OctNovDec

1978: JanFeb _MarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept"Get*

Total newconstruc-

tionexpendi-tures

110.0124. 1137.9138.51345148.8172.6

176.7178. 1179.0171.4177.6185.4195.3201.6205.8208.3206.4207.7208.0

Total

80. 193.9

105.4100. 293.7

110.5134.7

139.2140.6142.3

134.9141.9147.7153.7156.5160.6159.9158.0159.4160.2

Resic

Total *

Bil

43.354.359.750.446.560.581.0

Seasonall]

84.285.287.479.485.388. 192.494.594.994. 092.592.592.8

Private

lential

Newhousing

lions of doll

35. 144.950. 140.634.447.365.7

/ adjusted ai

69.370.772.865.070.972.574.475.176.677.777. 176.876.2

Commer-cial and

industrial

ars

17.018. 121.723.820.819.922.5

inual rates

24. 124.322.822.422.825.426.427.330.630.630.931.632.0

Other

19.821.524.025.926.430.031.3

30.931. 132. 133.233.834 134.934.635. 135.334.735.335. 4

Federal,State,andlocal

29.930.232.538.340.938.337.8

37.437.436.836.435.737.741.545.145.248.448.448.347.8

Constraetio

Total valueindex

(1967=100)

145.4165.3179.5169.7167.9199.4252.2

Seasonallyadjusted

244258299283266254279332251286289300319

n contracts2

Commer-cial and

industrialfloor space(millions ofsquare feet)

727854

1,010840555592738

Seasonallyadjustedannualrates

757847864996814863921

1,061999898951

1,0371,015

1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alter-ations, not shown separately.

2 P. W. Dodge series. Eelates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index andbeginning 1971 for floor space.

NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparablewith later data.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-HillInformation Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

197019711972... .19731974197519761977

1977: NovDec

1978: Jan _FebMar_.AprMayJuneJulyAug" _.Sept »Oct *Nov »

Units

Total

1, 433. 62, 052. 22,356.62, 045. 31, 337. 71, 160. 41, 537. 51, 987. 1

2,0962,2031,5481,5692,0472,1652,0542,1242,1192,0252,0752,0952,104

*

started, by

1 unit

812.91, 151. 01, 309. 21, 132. 0

888. 1892. 2

1, 162. 41, 450. 9

1,5441,5741,1561,1031,4291,4921,4781,4411,4531,4401,4631,4591,498

few private

type of stri

2-4units

84.8120.3141.3118.368. 164.085.9

121.7

Seasonally

13415310179

12614289

148135139111139165

bousing uni

icture

5 or moreunits

535. 9780.9906.2795.0381.6204.3289. 2414.4

adjusted ai

418476291387492531487535531446501497441

»

Units

ized

1, 351. 51,924.62, 218. 91, 819. 51, 074. 4

939. 21, 296. 21, 690. 0

mual rates

1,8221,7781,5261,5341,6471,7401,5971,8211,6321,5631,7311,7191,691

Unitscompleted

1, 418. 41, 706. 12, 003. 92, 100. 51, 728. 51, 317. 21, 377. 21, 657. 1

1,7691, 6411,7591,6961,8211,9431,8541,8901,9431,9671,9711,842

New priv

Homessold

485656718634519549646819

819857813774793827846831789784792979

ate homes

Homes forsale atend ofperiod *

220287409418346313354403

401403405404404410412418417418419412

Vacancyrate forrental

housingunits

(percent)2

5.35.45.65.86.26.05.65.2

5. 1

5.0

5. 1

5.0

1 Seasonally adjusted.a Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADEBusiness sales rose 2^ percent in October while inventories rose $3 billion. According to the advance survey, retailsales rose 2 percent in November following an increase of 1M percent in October.


400

350

300

250

200

150

100

TOTAL BUSINESSINVENTORIES

V

1974 1975

TOTALSALES

1976 1977

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

RETAIL SALES

RATIO*

1978

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

1.201974



1977 1978

COUJ4CII OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

197119721973 .1974197519761977

1977: NovDec

1978: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept_Get*Nov 9

Total bi

Q_-|__ Abales z

116, 351130, 049151, 647175, 200179, 621200, 760223, 793

231, 550237, 017

230, 294238, 165242, 627250, 606251, 869252, 639250, 853258, 306258, 311264, 567

osiness *

Inven-tories 3

188, 508203, 088233, 749285, 064283, 614309, 238334, 785

333, 186334, 785

337, 676340, 396345,839350, 545354, 226356, 920359, 301362, 815364, 747367, 635

Who!

cj 1 2Sales *

Mali

26, 25729, 58436, 82245, 83644, 63348, 40853, 509

55, 55857, 266

55, 98557, 63558, 87762, 15264, Oil63, 23563, 40464, 57364, 04566, 728

esale

Inven-tories 3

ons of d<

35, 82339, 78646, 25456, 53755, 11361, 30767, 998

67, 04767, 998

68, 99170, 36172, 88274, 86775, 47475, 82075, 66476, 25377, 02078, 599

TWol

sllars, se,

34, 16937, 42241,87144, 54348, 37053, 54259, 029

61, 65061, 813

59, 98761, 54862, 64963, 91764, 29264, 56564, 34365, 86266, 34767, 22568, 584

Sales 2

Dur-ablegoodsstores

asonally

10, 82712, 36914, 09113, 82014, 90717, 54419, 901

20, 79520, 674

19, 91420, 44520, 89721, 80721, 82122, 09221, 84422, 90822, 81223, 33923, 707

Re

Non-durablegoodsstores

adjusted

23, 34225, 05427, 78130, 72333, 46335, 99839, 127

40, 85541, 139

40, 07341, 10341, 75242, 11042, 47142, 47342, 49942, 95443, 53543, 88644, 877

tail

In

Tnf nl

50, 06355, 07962, 95070, 71670, 62378, 04587, 073

86, 29987, 073

87, 70887, 64289, 09789,96391, 06391, 54392, 47093, 68093, 66494, 301

ventories

Dur-ablegoodsstores

21, 68724, 23828, 07232, 39432, 11936, 41740, 534

40, 08740, 534

41, 06041, 36941, 52141, 88142, 30042, 03642, 35942, 64042, 56543, 039

i

Non-durablegoodsstores

28, 37630, 84134, 87838, 32238, 50441, 62846, 539

46, 21246, 539

46, 64846, 27347, 57648, 08248, 76349, 50750, 11151, 04051, 09951, 262

Inventoirat

Totalbusi-ness J

1.581.501.44L471.581.481.44

1.441.41

1.471.431.431.401.411.411.431.401.411.39

ry- salesio4

Retail

1.391.401.411.481.431.391.40

1.401.41

1.461.421.421.411.421.421.441.421.411.40

1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).2 Monthly average for year and total for month.3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly

sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

20

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureauof the Census).


MANUFACTURERS1 SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERSManufacturers* orders, shipments, and inventories rose in October. According to advance data, durable goods ordersand shipments fell in November.


140

120

100



140

120

100

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1974

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1977 1978


Period

1971197219731974197519761977

1977: Oct____Nov..Dec...

1978: Jan___Feb...Mar...AprMay..June _ _July...Aug._.SeptOct___Novs.

Manufac

Total

55, 92563, 04372, 95484, 82186, 61698, 809

111,256

114, 091114, 342117, 938

114, 322118, 982121, 101124, 537123, 566124, 839123, 106127, 871127, 919130, 614

turers1 shi

Durablegoods

29, 97334, 04339, 70444, 25343, 67850, 69758, 266

60, 31660, 22862, 130

59, 97363, 07764, 45766, 49365, 41766, 29365, 22268, 684§8, 91670, 29271, 629

pments 1

Non-durablegoods

25, 95228, 99933, 25040, 56842, 93948, 11252, 990

53, 77554, 11455, 808

54, 34955, 90556, 64458, 04458, 14958, 54657, 88459, 18759, 00360, 322

Manufact

Total

Millioi102, 622108, 223124, 545157, 811157, 878169, 886179, 714

179, 301179, 840179, 714

180, 977182, 393183, 860185, 715187, 689189, 557191, 167192, 882194, 063194, 735

urers1 inv

Durablegoods

ns of dolla66, 27170, 24481, 333

101, 790101, 580108, 968115,424

114,448115,212115, 424

116, 278117,511118, 725119, 848121, 471122, 688123, 830125,206126, 176126, 784

entories 2

Non-durablegoods

trs, season36, 35137, 97943, 21256, 02156, 29860, 91864, 290

64, 85364, 62864, 290

64, 69964, 88265, 13565, 86766, 21866, 86967, 33767, 67667, 88767, 951

Manul

Total

ally ad jus56, 01664, 20176, 22487, 20085, 05899, 134

112, 842

117, 331117, 024122, 128

117,899122, 544125, 801128, 175128, 450127, 580123, 279130, 952131, 840137, 162

raeturers

Durabl

Total

ted30, 03035, 09842, 89446, 78341, 93350, 99759, 795

63, 55662, 82166, 165

63, 33566, 68169, 01670, 03370, 04568, 84065, 18771, 58272, 64576, 98476, 263

7 new ord

e goodsCapitalgoodsindus-tries,non-

defense

7,5358,832

11, 11412, 69110, 78112, 50115, 201

16, 09716, 09016, 988

16, 51117, 88217, 50717, 40918, 12418, 15517, 07419, 34420, 14922, 21919, 963

ers l

Non-durablegoods

25, 98629,10433, 32940, 41743, 12548, 13753, 047

53, 77554, 20355, 963

54, 56455, 8635.6, 78558, 14258, 40558, 74058, 09259, 37059, 19560, 178

Manu-fac-

turers1

unfilledorders 3

107, 657121, 709161, 194189, 678170, 686174, 553193, 659

186, 787189, 469193, 659

197,235200, 798205, 500209, 133214, 010216, 754216, 922219, 999223, 921230, 464

Manu-fac-

turers1

inven-tory —ship-mentsratio *

1.831.671.581.651.831.661.58

1.571.571.52

1.581.531.521.491.521.521.551.511.521.49

i Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.3 Book value, end of period.8 End of period.* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly

shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shirvmeTits

s Preliminary; not charted.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.


PRODUCER PRICES PRICESIn November, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finishedconsumer foods increased 0.6 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.7 percent. Prices of capitalequipment increased 1.0 percent.

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

140

120

100

140

120

100

1971


1979


Period

19701971197219731974197519761977

1977: NovDec

1978: JanFebMarApr-.May _June __JulyAugSeptOct__Nov

Totalfin-

ishedgoods

110.3113.7117.2127.9147.5163.4170.3180.6

1845185.3

186. 6188.6189.6192.0193.4194.8195.8195.5197.2198.9200.4

Con-sumerfoods

113.5115.3121.7146.4166.9181.0180.2189. 1

191.9192.6

194.8200. 7.202. 1205.8206.7209.1208. 1205.2208.6212. 1213.4

[1967=]

F

Total

109. 1113.1115.4120.2139.4156.2165 5176.2

180.3181.2

182.2183.0183.9185.8187.3188.4190.0190. 6191.7192.9194.5

100; mFinishec

Inishedcons

Cons

Total/

107.7111.4113.4118.5138.6153.1161.8172.1175.4176.1177. 1177.6178.4180.8182.3183.2185.0185.6186.6187.8189. 1

onthly <[ goods

goods eumerfc

umer g

TYiii*flhlo

106.9110.8113.2115.4125.9138.2144.4152. 2

155.5156.1

157.4157.7158.7163.2165.5165.8168.7169.6170.3170. 3171.1

data set

xcludinods

oods

Non-dur-able

108.3111.7113.6120.5146.8163.0173.3185.4

188.8189.5

190.3190.9191. 5192.4193.3194.6195.5195.9197. 1199.2200.9

isonally

g

Capi-tal

equip-ment *

112.0116.6119.5123.5141.0162.5173.2184.5

189.9191.3

192.3193.5194.6195.7197.3198.7199.9200.6201.8203.0205.0

adjuste

Totalcon-

sumerfin-

ishedgoods

109.9112.9116.6129.2149.3163.6169. 0178.9

182. 1182.7

184.2186.4187.5190.4191.6193. 1194.0193.4195. 1197. 1198.5

d]

In1E

Total

109.9114. 1118.7131.6162.9180.0189.3201.7

205.2206.0

207.9209.7211.3212.4213.7214.6215.5216. 4217.9220. 6222.2

iermedinateria]

Foodsand

feeds2

109. 1111.7118.5168.4200.2195.3186.6191.0

185.4183.3

187.2191.0201. 1201.2206.4200.8204.0197. 1201.5207. 1206.4

ates

Other

109.9114.3118.9128. 1159.5178.6189.5202.4

206.4207.4

209.2210.9212.0213. 1214.2215.4216.2217.5218.9221.4223.2

Crud

Total

112.3115.1127.6174.0196. 1196.9205. 12143

2144217.2

221.6228.7231.7238.5238.9243. 1241.7238.6242. 3249.6253.3

e mater

Food-stuffsand

feed-stuffs

112.0114.2127.5180.0189.4191.8190. 1190.9

189.9191. 1

196.4205.6208.0217.0217. 1221.3215.7211.9215.9223.7226.5

ials

Other

112.7117.0128.0162.5208.9206.9233.6258.4

260.9266.3

269.4272.1276.5278.8279.8284 2291.0289.6292. 5298. 61

304 1* Formerly called producer finished goods.2 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal

feeds.

NOTE.—Data revised for July 1978.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22


CONSUMER PRICESIn October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted).Food prices increased 0.6 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.7 percent(also 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.9 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted).

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)220

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)220

200

- 120

100

1970 1971

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967=100]

Period

19701971197219731974197519761977

1977: OctNov...Dec

1978: JanFeb.Mar..._AprMay...JuneJuly...Aug —Sept.__Oct

Allitems

116.3121.3125.3133. 1147.7161.2170.5181.5

1845185.4186. 1

187.2188.4189.8191.5193.3195.3196.7197.8199.3200.9

Food

1149118.4123.5141.4161.7175.4180.8192.2

Unac

1944195.6196.3

199.2202.02042207.5210.3213.8215.0215.4215.6216.8

Com-modi-tieslessfood

112.5116.8119.4123. 5136.6149.1156.6165.1

ljusted

167.4168.1168.4

168.6168.8170.0171.3173.01744175.4176.3177.8179.1

Serv-ices

121.612R4133.3139.1152.1166.6180.41943

19R5199.5200.5

202. 0203.52049206.5208.0209.9211.7213.4215.6217.6

Allcom-modi-ties

113.5117.4120.9129.9145.5158.4165.21747

176.7177.517&3

179.9180.8182.31840185.6187.2187.9188.7190.1191.5

All

1149118.4123.5141.4161.7175.4180.8192.2

195.0196.0196.7

199.2201.62043208. 1211.22140213.9214.5215.6217.3

Food

Foodat

home

113.7116.4121.6141.4162.4175.8179.5190.2

192.5193.51942

197.0199.5202.5207.3211. 1214 0213.2213.3214 1216.0

Foodawayfromhome

119.9126. 1131. 1141.4159.41743186. 1200.3

Seasonal

2045205. 1206. 1

208.4210.5212.52140215.8218.2219.9221.7223.2224.6

Comn

AH

112.5116.8119.4123.5136.6149. 1156.6165.1

ly adjust

166.8167.6168.4

169.5169. 9170.9171.8172.8173.91749175.7177.2178.5

lodities le

Dur-able

111.8116.5118.9121.9130.6145.51543163.2

ed

164.4165. 1166.0

167.6168.7169.5170.4171.8173.21744175.2176.7178.1

ss food

Non-dur-able

113. 1117.0119.81248140.9151.7158.3166.5

168.6169.4169.9

170.6170.1171.2172. 1172.8173.51744175.2176.6177.4

Serv-ices

121.6128.4133.3139.1152.1166.6180.41943

198.7199. 5200.3

201.5203.02047206.6208.7210.5212.2214.0215.7217.5


CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS

Period

1969197019711972197319741975197619771977: Nov

Dec1978: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJuly ,.AugSeptOctNov

Percenperioc

Totalfin-

ishedgoods

4.82.23.23.8

11.818.36.63.36.6.7.4.7

1. 1.5

1.3.7.7.5

2.9.9.8

j changei; season

Consum

Foods

8.2-2.5

5.98.0

22.53.05.5

-2.56.61.3.4

1. 13.0.7

1.8.4

1.2-.5

-1.41.71.7.6

from pr<ally adju

er goods

Exclud-ing

foods

2.93.92.02.07.4

20.56.74.96.1.3.4.6.3.5

1.3.8.5

1.0.3.5.6.7

3cedingisted 1

Capitalequip-ment

4.64.92.42.05.3

22.68.26.47.2.5.7.5.6.6.6.8.7.6.4.6.6

1.0

Percenearlie

Totalfin-

ishedgoods

6.87.27.69.29.6

12. 110.611.48.24.45.06.5

10.4

t changer; seasor

annua

Consum

Foods

5.67.4

11.719.621.224.612. 514.64.5

-2.9-1.0

7.917.0

from 3 ilally adjii rates

er goods

Exclud-ing

foods

5.24.75.45. 15.38.6

11.011.29.67.47.66.27.8

nonthsisted

Capitalequip-ment

10.110.97.47.87. 17.38. 18.78.96.96.46.39. 1

Percenearlie

Totalfin-

ishedgoods

4. 45.06.28.08.49.89.9

10.510. 17.58.27.37.4

fc changer; seasor

annua

Consum

Foods

-0.32.45.2

12.414. 117.916.017.914. 14.56.56.26.6

from 6 rtally adji. rates

er goods

Exclud-ing

foods

4.64.35.35. 15.07.08.08.29. 19.29.47.97.6

nonthsisted

Capitalequip-ment

7.98.48.68.99.07.37.97.98.17.57.57.68.0

i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).NOTE.—Based on revised data for July 1978.


CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES

Period

1969197019711972197319741975197619771977 : Oct ...

Nov___Dec___

1978: Jan...Feb_._MarAprMay~_June...July...Aug.—Sept...Oct..-

Percenpeno(

Allitems

6. 15.53.43.48.8

12.27.04.86.8.3.4.4

.8

.6

.8

.9

.9

. 9

.5

.6

.8

.8

t changei; season

Food

7.22.24.34.7

20. 112.26.5.6

8.0.2.5.4

1.31.21.31.91.51.3

-.0.3.5.8

from pretally ad jus

Com-mod-itieslessfood

4.54.82.32.55.0

13.26.25. 14.9.4.5.5

.7

.2

.6

.5

.6

.6

.6

.5

.9

.7

cedingsted1

Serv-ices

7.48.24. 13.66.2

11.38. 17.37.9.4.4.4

.6

.7

.8

.91.0.9.8.8.8.8

Percent cseasons

Allitems

4.54.74.9

6.77.59.3

10.011.311.49.78.37.88.8

lange f reilly adjus

Food

3.13.54.2

8.911.916.419.120. 520.411.66.43.06.5

>m 3 montsted annu


3.44.75.4

6.65.66.15.57.07.27.46.97.88.5

bs earlier ;al rates

Serv-ices

6.35.64.9

5.87.29. 1

10.511.711.811.310. 610.310.4

Percent cseasons

Allitems

5. 14.84.7

5.66. 17. 18.39.4

10.49.89.89.69.3

lange f reilly adjus

Food

3.73.63.0

6.07.7

10. 113.916. 118.415.313. 211.49.0

»m 6 montsted annu


3.33.740

5.05. 15.76.16.36.66.56.97.58.0

hs earlier ;al rates

Serv-ices

7.87.06.3

6.06.47.08.19.4

10.410.911.111.010.8.— I

1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier

data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers.


24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers decreased 1y2 percent in November. Contributing most to the decline were lower prices forhogs, cattle, and citrus fruits. Partially offsetting were higher prices for eggs, lettuce, milk, corn, and wheat. Prices paidby farmers were unchanged in the month ended November 15.

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

PRICES RECEIVED

(ALL FARM PRODUCTS)

PRICES PAID(ALL ITEMS, INTEREST,

TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE.

SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1976 1977 1978


Period

197019711972197319741975197619771977: Oct

Nov „_Dec .

1978: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov

Prices

All farmproducts

110113125179192185186183177178181186193200208215217215210215217214

received by

Crops

100108114175224201197192178184183188190198208212216212202203200200

farmers

Livestockand

products

Index, 1<

118118136183165172177175176174180185196204209217219217217226232228

PricesAll items,interest,

taxes, andwage rates

367=100

112118125144164180191202201202203209211214216219220220220223224224

paid by far

Familylivingitems

114118123133151166176

(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(«)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)3

mers

Produc-tion

items

108113121146166182193200198199199203206211214217218218217220222223

Parity

Actual

7271749186767166€565666567697172737270717170

ratio l

Adjusted *

77757994877672686666676769717374757472737372

1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid,interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.

3 The adjusted parity ration reflects Government payments made directly tofarmers.

s Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substitutein calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.

Source: Department of Agriculture.


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCKThe narrower monetary aggregates declined in November while the broader M2 and Ms continued to rise.

IILUONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SC

300

200 200


SOURCi: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1978

COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1973: Dec._1974: Dec..1975: Dec..1976: Dec..1977: Dec..1977: Nov.

Dec..

1978: Jan..Feb..Mar.Apr._May.June-July -Aug..Sept.Oct..Nov»

(

Mi

270.5282.9295.2313.5338.5336.2338.5

341.7341.8342.9348.5350.6352.8354.2356.7360.9262.0360.6

Overall

M1+

397.7419.0456.4516.8560. 2557.7560.2

564.6565.0566. 2572.6575.2577. 1577.8582.0587. 9588.8585.3

measur<

M2

571.4612.2664.7740.5809.5805.4809.5

815.9819. 1822.6830.3835.2840. 6846.2853.5862.4867.4870.5

38 l

M3

919.2981.2

1} 092. 51, 286. 51, 376. 11, 367. 11, 376. 1

1, 386. 61, 393. 11, 400. 31, 411. 41, 419. 91, 429. 81, 441. 01, 455. 11, 472. 11, 484. 41, 492. 8

Cur-rency

61.567.873.780.788.687.788.6

89.490. 190.791.292. 192.893.394.095. 296.096.8

C

Deposit

De-mand

209.0215. 1221. 5232.8249.9248.5249.9

252. 2251.7252.3257.3258.5259.9260.9262.8265.7266. 1263.8

/ompone

s at com

Time

Total 2

363.9418.3450.9489.7545.0540. 1545.0

550.6556.7561.7565.2571.6574.5579.4583.0589.7593. 6605.3

nts and

mercia]

and sa

LargeCDs

63.089.081.362.774.070.9740

76.379.482.083.487. 186.787.486.388. 188.295.4

i elated ]

banks

vings

Sav-ings

127.0135.8160.5201. 9219.6219.4219. 6

220.7220. 9221.0221.6222. 0221.7220.9222. 4224. 2223.9221.9

terns

De-posits

atnon-bankthrift

institu-tions

347.8369. 1427.8496. 0566. 6561.7566. 6

570.7574.0577.7581.2584.7589.2594.7601. 6609. 6616.9622. 3

U.S.Govern-

mentdemanddeposits

(unad-justed)

6.34.94. 14.45.13.55. 1

4.34. 34.85.04. 06.24.53. 66.24.38. 1

Perce

Mi

6.04.64.36.28.07.98. 1

8. 17. 06.07.68.78. 67.58.9

10.87.95.8

nt char

M1+

5.05.48.9

13.28.47.37.5

7.55.84.65.56.46. 14.76. 17.85.73.5

ige3

M2

8.87.18.6

11.49.39.59.0

8.27.77.07.37.57.87.68. 69.99. 18.6

1 MI is currency plus demand deposits; MH- is Mi plus savings deposits atcommercial banks and checkable deposits at nonbank thrift institutions; M2 isMi plus time and savings deposits at eonrmereial banks other than large certifi-cates of deposit (CDs); and M3 is M2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions.

26

a Includes time deposits other than large CDs, not shown separately.3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes arefrom 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.


PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1970: Dec1971: Dec1972: Dec .__ _1973: Dec1974: Dec1975: Dec..1976: Dec1977: Dec

1977: NovDec

1978: JanFeb... ... _MarApr-May.JuneJulyAugSeptOctNov "

Totalliquidassets

769.7852.5967.2

1, 085. 31, 170. 21, 290. 61, 424. 61, 591. 0

1, 576. 51, 591. 0

1, 607. 71, 619. 21,631.01, 647. 41, 662. 31, 674. 21, 686. 31, 699. 21, 720. 31, 732. 01, 747. 5

Total

632.7719.0816. 6887.7945.0

1, 055. 31, 195. 21, 328. 3

1, 319. 21, 328. 3

1, 339. 11, 345. 61, 352. 81, 363. 51, 371. 51, 381. 61. 393. 81, 407. 81, 424. 31, 436. 11, 445. 3

Curre

Cur-rency

49. 152. 656. 861.567. 873. 780.788.6

87. 788.6

89. 490. 190.791.292. 192. 893.394.095.296.096.8

ncy and c

Demanddeposits

152. 0161. 8176.1183.7187. 1192. 4200.0213.9

212.1213. 9

216.6216. 0216. 3221.5222. 1223. 1224.5226.2228.4228.1225.9

eposits

Timec

Com-mercialbanks

198. 9233. 6264. 3294.4321. 1360. 6417.3459.2

457.6459.2

462.4465.5468. 1469.6472.5476.5481.3486. 1491.0495.1500.2

eposits

Nonbankthrift

institu-tions

- 232. 7271. 1319. 3348. 1369. 142& 6497. 3566. 6

561.7566. 6

570.7574.0577.7581.2584. 7589.2594.7601. 6609.6616.9622.3

U.S. Tseeui

Savingsbonds

52.054.357. 660.463. 367. 271.976.6

76.276.6

77.077.477.878. 278. 678. 979.379. 579.880.180.4

reasuryities

Short-term

market-able se-curities

41.931.534.343.447. 166. 366.577.6

77.177.6

79.580. 179.880.781.681.780.180. 683.683.081.9

Nego-tiablecertifi-

cates ofdeposit

21.827.636. 253.870.458.443.252.3

50.052. 3

53.454.856.558. 662. 361.761.759.660.760.367.0

Otherprivatemoneymarketinstru-ments

21.320. 122. 540.044.443.347.856.3

54.056.3

58.761.464. 166.468.370.471,471. 672.072.473.0

Source: Board of Governors of tho Federal Eeserre System.

CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1970 _197119721973 - _ __1974197519761977

1977: Oct.NovDec

1978: Jan_ __FebMar.AprMayJuneJulyAug._SeptOct

Instalm

Total1

115, 132138, 046151, 749173, 035172, 765180, 441211, 028254, 071

22, 27322, 48722, 832

21, 98322, 75823, 92524, 68225, 10425, 56525, 02225, 66925, 53725, 855

ent credit e

Auto-mobile

30, 85736, 70643, 70249, 60646, 51452, 42063, 74375, 641

6,5036,7196,889

6,5416,7307,0437,4347,5927, 5957, 6527,7447,5427,511

xtended

Revolving

8,68921, 86224, 65928, 70233, 21336, 95643, 93486, 756

7,6667,7167,985

7,9608,1478, 3988,5238,5639, 0628, 7009, 0289,0068,846

Instalm

Total i

110, 352127, 789136, 787152, 817163, 276172, 676189, 381218, 793

19, 06618, 89119, 252

19, 54619, 89619, 84920, 57620, 82421, 35821, 55622, 03721, 85722, 732

;nt credit lit

Auto-mobile

31, 41432, 51238, 08143, 69646, 01949, 44453, 27860, 437

5,2745, 1795,252

5,2155,3975,4095, 6225, 7155, 9535, 9416, 1406, 0106, 126

|ui dated

Revolving

7,27820, 81823, 48526, ,69931, 24335, 61641, 76480, 508

6,9997,0247,226

7,5457,6987,5667,8407,9198, 1078, 1008,2918,3848,500

Net change

Total1

4,78010, 25714, 96220, 2189,4897,765

21, 64735, 278

3,2073,5963,579

2,4372,8624,0764, 1064,2804,2073,4663, 6323,6803, 123

in amount

Auto-mobile

-5574, 1945,6215,910

4952,976

10, 46515, 204

1,2291,5401,637

1,3261,3331, 6341, 8121,8771,6421,7111, 6041,5321, 385

autstanding

Revolving

1,4111, 0441, 1742, 0031,9701,3402, 1706,248

667692758

415449832683644955600737622346

' Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Note.—Series revised.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

27


BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, ANDRevised data show slightly less rapid growth in commercial and industrial loans than previously estimated. Growthslowed significantly in November.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

1,000

800

600

400

200

100

80

60

40

-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

INVESTMENT IN

U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

i i i 1 1 I i i l l s i 1 i i i i i i i i i i 1 i i i i i

1,000

800

600

400

200

100

80

60

401970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTHSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted^ except as noted]

PorinH

19701971197219731974197519761977

1977: Nov.Deo ....

1978: Jan.FebMarAprMayJuneJuly 9Aug*Sept*Oct »Nov 9

Totalloansand

invest-ments

435.5485.755ao63a4

4 691. 1721.8785.1870.6

866.2870.6

881.2887.7894.1909.0921.7932.2940.79446952.4960.9966.3

Allc

L<

Total ex-cludinginter-bank

292.0320.937R9449.0500.2496.9538.9617.0

611.6617.0

625. 1628.4637.2

x647..-6659.7667.8675. 1680.2687.3696.8706.7

ommercial I

)ans

Commer-cial and

industrial

110.0116.2130.4156.6isas176.2

5 179. 7« 201. 4

200.2• 201. 4

203.8205.8209.8212.4217.9219.0220.8222.8224.6227.0228.9

;>anks l

Investor

U.S. Gov-ernmentsecurities

57.860.662.654.551. 180. 198.095.6

96.395.6

96.599.496. 198.397.9

100.2100.697.997.295.290.3

lents

Othersecu-rities

85.7104.2116.5129.9139.8144814a2158.0

158.3158.0

159.6159.9160.8163. 1164 11642165.0166.5167.9168.9169.3

I

Total

29.1131. 1731.34349136.573468349336.14

35.9636.14

36.6136.9336.6736.9537.2637.7338. 1937.9138.1738.43

All me

teserves 2 3

Non-borrowed

2a7831.0430.2933.6135.843455348835.57

35.1035.57

36.1236.5236.3436.3936.0536.6336.8836.7737. 1137. 15

mber ban

Re-quired

28.8630.9831.06346136.313442346535.95

35.7135.95

36.3436.6936.4736.8037.0437.5538.0037.7437.9738.26

ksBorrowiilions of

unadju

Total

321107

1,0491,298

70312762

558

840558

481405344539

1,2271, 1111,2861, 1471,0681,261

igs (mil-dollars,isted) *

Sea-sonal

4132131254

8354

3252474393

120143188191221

* Data are for end of period.3 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December.3 Member tank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages

with no adjustment to eliminate the eflect of changes in Regulations D and M.

28

* During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due toa bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank.

» Loan rectifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1976.s Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $0.2 billion in December 1977.Note.—Commercial bank data revised beginning January 1978.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS


Period

1970™__1971197219731974197519761977

1977: IIIIIIIV

1978: IIIIII*

Total

1043127.1161.7199.8190.8143.8205.0239.0

244.3198.6266.0247.1

283.9274. 1289.4

Inter-nal1

58.968.680.883.875.7

106.8124.7135.3

123.8134.9145.5137.3

127.2144115L6

Total

45. 558.580.9

115.9115. 137.080.3

103.6

120.563.7

120.6109.9

156.7130.0137.8

Sources

Credil

Total

40.744558.372.781.837.058.278.7

75.963.780.195.2

102.282.880.2

External

b market 1

Long-term2

32.140.640.637.039.149.348.846.2

34435.353.561.5

40.353.7545

unds

Short-term 3

8.63.9

17.635.742.6

— 12. 39.5

32.6

41.628.526.633.7

61.929. 125.7

Other

4814 122.743.333.4

.022. 1249

446-.040.5147

54547.257.6

Total

95.9119.6145. 8185.6179.0131.91849212. 3

2146177.32346222. 7

263.3260.8272.6

Uses

Pur-chase

ofphysi-

calassets *

80.386.0

100.3123.3134799.9

141.21646

152.5162.4175.2168.0

179.8199.9194.8

In-crease

infinan-

cialassets

15.633.645.662.344432.043.747.8

62. 114959.4547

83.561.077.8

Dis-crep-ancy

(sourcesless

uses)

8.47.5

15.914211.811.920. 126.7

2&621.331.4244

20.613.216.8

* Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumptionadjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.

2 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.9 Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers* acceptances,

and Government loans.

* Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and min-eral rights from U.S. Government.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

End of period

SEC series:2

197019711972 ....19731974

FTC-FRB series:3

1974197519761977_

1977: IIIIIIIV

1978: III . _

Total

492.3529.6599.3697.8790.7

734 6756.3823. 1900.1

842.0856.4880.3900.1

9242953.6

Cash

50.253.359.066.371.1

73.080.086.8942

80.883.183.4942

88.590.9

Curre

U.S.govern-ment

securi-ties

7.711.010.612.812.3

11.319.626.020.9

26.822. 121.520.9

20.919.7

at assets

Notesandac-

countsreceivable

206.1221. 1248.2288.5322.1

265.5272. 1292.4325.7

304 1312. 8326.9325.7

338.3356.8

Inven-tories

193.3200.4225.7263.9313.6

318.93147341.4375.0

352. 1358.8367.5375.0

389.7399. 1

Othercurrentassets

35.043.855.866.471.7

65.969.976.4843

78.379.681.084 3

86.887.0

Cur

Total

3049326.0375. 6450.9530.4

451.8446.9487. 5543.2

502.6509.5528.9543.2

570.4590.6

rent Habil

Notesandac-

countspayable

211.3220. 5282.9340.3402.3

272, 3261.2273. 2306. 8

280.2286.8297.8306.8

317.2331.4

ities

Othercurrentliabili-j » _ _ties

93.6105.592.7

110.7128. 1

179.5185.72142236.3

222.4222.7231. 1236.3

253.2259.2

Network-

ingcapital

187.4203.6223. 7246.9260.3

282.8309.5335.6357.0

339.5346.9351. 4357.0

353.8363.0

Currentratio l

1.6151.6251.5951.5481.491

1.6261.6931.6881.657

1.6751.6811.6641.657

1.6201.615

* Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.2 Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial IteportfQT Manufacturing, Mining, and

Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.

NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Federal Trade

Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

29


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates stabilized in December following the November upturn.

PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM

10 10CORPORATE Aaa BONDS

(MOODY'S)

1970

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

Period

1972197319741975197619771977: Nov

Dec1978: Jan

FebMar __AprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov

Week ended:1978: Nov 25_._.

Dec 2___ .9-___

16....23..-

U.S. Tre

3-monthbills i

4.0717. 0417.8865.8384.9895. 2656. 1606. 0636.4486.4576.3196.3066.4306.7077.0747.0367.8368. 1328.787

8.6969. 1668.9848.9299.237

asury seeuri

Constant i

3-year

5.726.957.827.496.776.697.227.307.617.677.707.858.078.308.548.338.418.629.04

8.969. 169. 129. 19

ty yields

naturities 2

10-year

6. 216.847.567.997.617.427.587.697.968.038.048. 158.358.468.648.418.428.648.81

8.788.858.868.95

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard& Poor's)3

5. 275. 186.096.896.495.565.385.485.605.515.495.715.976.136. 185.985.935. 956.03

5.996. 116. 126.28

CorporateAaa

(Moody's)

7.217.448.578.838.438.028.088. 198.418.478.478.568.698.768.888.698.698.899.03

9.009.049. 069. 12

Prime com-mercialpaper,4-6

months

4.698. 159.876. 335.355. 606.596. 646. 796.806.806.867.117.637.917.908.449.03

10.23

10.2210.2810.3210.36

Discountrate

(N.Y.F.R.

Bank)*

4.506. 457. 836.255.505.466-66-66-6H

6H-6H6H-6H6fc-6H61/2-77-77-7^

71/4-7%7Ji-8

8-8H9K-9/2

9H-9/29/2-9/29/2-9/29/2-9/29/2-

Primerate

chargedby

banks 4

5.258.03

10.817.866.846.83

!%-!%7%-7H7K-8

8-88-88-88-8/2

8H-99-99-9H

9K-9%9^-10M

10/2-11/2

11-11/2

11H-11H11/2-11/211/2-11/2

ll%-

New-home

mortgageyields

(FHLBB)5

7.607.958.929.018.999.019.079.099.159.189.269.309.379.469.579.709.739.839.86

1 Rate on new issues within period.3 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities

by the Treasury Department.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

30

s Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflectingfees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repaymengat end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable withprior rates.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service,and Standard & Poor's Corporation.


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices were generally stronger in December than in November.

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=5080

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=5080

50

40

30 -

- 50

40

- 30

1970 1978

PER20

15

10

5

0

CENT

-

r^^-l

i I I1970

I I I-1971

i I I1972

EARNING

_x^1^—^

\ 1 i1973

S-PRlCEl RATIO C(S&

^

I I i1974

)N COMMON ST

P)

k

i I I

1975

OCKS

^

i i i1976

+-~^- 1

1 1 11977

PERC

-i

« *̂**

I ! I1978

ENT20

«

10

5

0

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1972__197319741975 __1976 _19771977: Nov___ __

Dec1978: Jan....

Feb___ .MarAprMayJuneJulyAug__ ___SeptOctNov

Week ended:1978: Nov 18____

25____Dec 2

9— —16

New York

Composite

60.2957.4243.8445. 73544653.6951.8751. 8349.8949.4149.5051.7554.4954.8354. 6158.5358.5856.4052.74

51.8753. 1754. 1554.2153.81

Stock Exel:

Industrial

65.7363.0848.0850. 5260. 4457. 8655. 6253.5553. 4552.8052.7755.4859. 1459.6359.3564.0764.2361.6057.50

56.4857.9657.9459. 2258.77

Comi

iange indexe

Transpor-tation

50. 1737.7431.8931. 1039.5741.0939.3039. 7539. 1538.9038.9541. 1944.2144. 1944.7449.4550. 1946.7041.80

40.7141. 9442.3143.6242. 95

lion stock p

s(Dec. 31, 1

Utility

38.4837.6929. 7931.5036.9740. 9240.3340.3639.0639.0239.2639.6939.4739. 4139.2840.2039. 8239.4437.88

37.5238.3138.2238.4838. 29

rices l

L965=50) 2

Finance

78. 3570. 1249.6747. 1452.9455.2554. 0453.8550. 9150.6051.4455. 0457.9558.3157.9763.2863. 2260.4254.95

54.0655.3155. 1956. 6056. 25

Dow-Jones

industrialaverage 3

950. 71923. 88759. 37802. 49974.92894.63828. 51818. 80781. 09763. 57756. 37794.66838. 56840. 26831. 72887. 93878. 64857. 69804. 29

790. 96806. 70803. 72815. 44812. 07

Standard& Poor'scomposite

index(1941-43=

10) 4

109. 20107. 4382.8586. 16

102. 0198.2094.2893. 8290.2588.9888.8292.7197.4197.6697. 19

103. 92103. 86100. 6194.71

93.2995.3895. 1796.9696.23

Common s(perc

Dividend-priceratio

2.843.064.474313.774625.025. 115. 325.495.625.425.205. 195.254934.975.115.45

5.545.385.495.285.39

tock yieldsent) 5

Earnings-

ratio

5.507. 12

11.599.158.90

10.79

11.45

12.25

11.81

1 Average of daily closing prices.2 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.3 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing

prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange(NYSE).

Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Stand-ard & Poor's Corporation. _ _


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBTIn the first month of fiscal year 1979 there was a budget deficit of $13.9 billion, compared with a deficit of $14.7billion a year earlier.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS5001

IILUONS Of DOIURS500

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

400

300

200

50

0

-50

-100

400

300

200

50

0

-50

-100

OUTIAYS

SURPLUS (+) OR DEROT (-)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

FISCAL YEARS

197$ 1977 1978 1979

SOURCES, DEPARTA4ENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:196919701971.19721973197419751976Transition quarter197719782

1979 (estimates):Statement, October 1978 2

Second Concurrent Resolution, Sept. 1978 3

First month:Fiscal year 1978Fiscal year 1979 _ _

Receipts

187.8193.7188.42oae232.22649281.0300.081.8

357. 8402.0

452.7448.7

24. 128.7

Outlays

1845196.6211.4232.0247. 1269.6326. 1366.4947

402.8450.7

491.6487.5

38.842.7

Surplus ordeficit (-)

a2-2.8

-23.0-23.4-148-47

-45. 1-66.4-13.0-45.0-48.7

-38.9-38.8

-147-13.9

Federal debt (

Tntfll 1

367. 1382.6409. 5437.346a4486.25441631.9646.4709. 1780.4

707.7785.3

end of period)

Held bythe public

279.528493043323.834ao346. 1396.9480.3498.3551.8610.9

553.7617.4

i Excludes noil-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.3 Data from Joint Statement of Secretary of the Treasury and Director, Office

of Management and Budget, October 27,1978.

a Second Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1979, Septem-ber 21, 1978.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget,except as iioted.


FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first month of fiscal year 1979 budget receipts were $4.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were$3.9 billion higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 8ILL10NS OF DOLLARS

100

400

300

200

100

400

300

200

100

OUTLAYS

**

J_ I Iy 1970 1971 1972 1973

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

1974 1975

FISCAL YEARS

1976 1977 1978 1979 N


[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:1969_1970197119721973___ _ _ _197419751976___ _Transition quarter _19771978 *1979 (estimates) * ___ _First month:

Fiscal year 1978Fiscal year 1979

Total

187.8193.7188.4208.6232.2264.9281.0300.081.8

357.8402.0452.7

24.128.7

Rece

Indi-vidualincometaxes

87.290.486.294.7

103.2119. 0122.4131.638.8

157.6181.0202.7

13.315.9

ipts

Corpo-rationincometaxes

36.732.826.832.236.238.640.641.48.5

54960.068.0

1.41.7

Other

63.970.575.481.792.8

107.4118.0127.034.5

145.2161. 1182.0

9.411. 1

Total

184.5196.6211.4232.0247. 1269.6326. 1366.494.7

402.8450.7491.6

38.842.7

Nationa

Total

79.478.675.876.674577.885.689.422.397.5

105.2114 5

8.29.2

(

. defense

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

77.977.274575.273.377.685.088.021. 995.7

103. 1112.0

8.09.2

)utlays

Interna-tionalaffairs

46434 147405.66.95.52.2485.96.3

.4

.3

Healthand

incomesecurity

49.056. 170. 181.491.8

106.5136. 3160.941.5

176.7189.9209. 1

14815. 9

In-terest

15.818.319.620.622.828. 131.03467.2

38. 143.952. 1

2.93.0

Other

35.739.341.848.853.951.766.576.021.585.7

105. 8109.6

12.5143

1 Data from Joint Statement of Secretary of the Treasury and Director, Officeof Management and Budget, October 27,1978.

Source: Depaitment of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the third quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $16.9 billion (annual rate) and expendituresrose $16.2 billion, yielding a deficit of $22.8 billion, $0.8 billion less than the second quarter deficit.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS550

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

150

50

-50

inn

SURPLUS

DEFICIT

1970 1971

*•-„

1972

Y/A k^d ^* k^

1973

j

1974CALENDAR YEAR5

B|1<

1

?75

11ill

1976

il|

1977

1|M_

1978

50

-50

inn

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

Fiscal year:1974197519761977Calendar

year:1974197519761977

1977: I!!___III_.IV._.

1978: III— .IIL__

Total

271.8283.5313.9365.3

288.6286.2331.4374.5

366.6371.4374.3385.5

396.2424.8441.7

Federal (

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

122.6127. 1136.9165. 9

131. 1125.4146.8169.4

168.3167.0167.6174.8

176.8186.7199.7

jrovernm

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

43.742.151.958.8

45.942.854.861.3

58.461.862.062.9

59.672.673.6

ent receip

Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals

21.422.224.224.5

21.723.923.425.0

24424.825.425.6

26.527.928.2

ts

Contri-butions

forsocial in-surance

84.292. 1

100.9116. 1

89.994.2

106.4118,' 7

115.5117.7119.3122.2

133.3137.6140. 1

Total

278.8328.7371.5412.0

299.3356.8385.2422.6

403.9411.7430.7444. 1

448.8448.3464.5

Fe

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

104.6118.0126.2140.7

111. 1123.1129.9145.1

138.3142.9146.8152.2

151.5147.2154.0

jderal G<

Trans-fer pay-ments

104.7134.3156.5169.6

117.6149.1161.6172.7

168.6168.2175.7178.3

180.2180.7188. 8

3vernmei

Grants-in-aid

to Stateandlocal

govern-ments

41.648.457.566.2

43.954.661. 167.4

62. 165.470.971.1

73.975.977.5

it expen

Netinterest

paid

19.821.925.228.4

20.923.226.829.1

28.128.828.930.7

33.234.636.3

iitures

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-ment en-terprises

8.05.76.27.0

5.36.85.88.3

6.76.48.4

11.8

10.010.08.0

Less:Wage

accrualslessdis-

burse-ments

-0.2— . 4

.0

.0

-.5.0.0.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.2

Surplusor

deficit(-),

nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-7.0-45.3-57.6-46.7

-10.7-70.6-53.8-48.1

-37.3-40.3-56.4-58.6

-52.6-23.6-22.8

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Depart-ment of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.

34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES[1967=100]

Period

1971197219731974__1975__19761977

1978: Jan____Feb-__Mar___Apr —May __June _ _July *_Aug "__Septp-Oct*_Nov*>_

In

UnitedStates

109.6119. 7129. 8129. 3117.8129. 8137. 1

138.8139. 2140.9143.2143. 9144. 9146. 1147. 1147.7148.5149. 5

dustrial

Can-ada

121. 5130. 7143.0147. 5139.6146. 7152. 6

153.3156.7157.5158.2156. 9158.4159.3158. 4163. 3163.2

produc

Ja-pan

155. 8167.2190. 5183. 1163. 9182.0189. 5

195. 2195.4199.5199.7200. 3200.5199.7201.8203.4203.0

stion (set

France

128135145148139149152

154152156160155154/!„•s loo156156

isonally

Ger-many

133.6138.7147.7145. 1137. 1149. 1152.7

157152151152151155157156159157

ad juste

Italy

117. 5122. 7134. 6140. 6127. 6143. 5144. 8

143.4148. 0146.6143.6145. 9144.2144. 9143. 1147. 6152.5

d)

UnitedKing-dom

110. 6113.2123. 0120. 0114. 3117.4123. 1

123. 8124.5124.0128.4126. 6128.9128.6128. 8127.4126.5

UnitedStates1

121. 3125. 3133. 1147. 7161.2170. 5181.5

187. 2188. 4189. 8191. 5193.3195. 3196.7197.8199.3200.9

Con

Can-ada

115. 6121.2130.3144.5160. 1172. 1185.9

194.0195.3197.5197.9200.7202.4205. 4205.5205. 2207.3209. 0

sumer j

Japan

126.5132.3147.9184.0205. 8224.9243.0

246. 1247. 1249.4252. 1253.5252. 1253. 1253.3256.4256.8

>rices (ui

France

123. 5131. 1140.7160.0178. 9196. 1213.9

222. 8224.4226.4228.9231. 1232. 8235.7237. 1238.6240.8

ladjustec

Ger-many

112. 7119. 0127.2136. 1144. 2150.7156.6

158.9159.7160.3160. 7161. 1161. 5161. 5161.0160.6160.6161. 1

D

Italy

114.4121.0134. 1159.7186.8218. 1257.6

274.6277.4280. 3283.3286.4288.8291.0292. 3296. 2299.4301.4

UnitedKing-dom

128.5137.6150. 3174.4216.5252. 4292.4

304.4306.2308. 1312.6314.4316.8318.2320.3321. 6323. 1325. 3

i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureauof International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International EconomicResearch, in International Economic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

Monthlyaverage :

1973 _ __1974

1974197519761977 _1977: Oct

Nov_-_Dec

1978: JanFeb____Mar___Apr-__May___June___July___Aug__Sept___Oct

Totaldomes-tic andforeign

ex-ports

5,9028, 159

8, 1598, 9669,596

10, 0969, 3579,478

10, 99910, 0149, 922

10, 91211, 63511,75412, 12611, 79312, 46913, 42913, Oil

Mercl

Total ! 2

F.

5,8118,045

8, 0458,8429,4569,915

landise e

Domesti

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

a.s. valu

1,0781,269

1,2691, 3991,4361, 3321, 0231, 1351,4721,2811,5311,6041,6931,8971,9631,8442,0081,8511,798

xports

e exports

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

e 5

8951,317

1,3171,2661, 3411,5481,4661,5001,4931,4021,2821,4831,6991, 7811, 9301, 6361,7581,8811,971

Manu-fac-

turedgoods

3, 7285,294

5,2945,9136,4376, 6816,2776,3827,4636,7396,6747, 1457,5627,5487, 7517,8598,2328,7208,735

Total 2

5, 7908,416

8, 3548,048

10, 08412, 30712, 58712, 40713, 47412, 38114, 44013, 69914, 49613, 99213, 72314, 77914, 09015, 12015, 138

Merc

Ge

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

Custon

770892

F.a.s.892827991

1, 186998962

1,4421,2761, 3631,3701,3701, 3131, 1351,3231,1411, 2981,423

landise i

rieral im

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

is value

1, 1202,653

value 5

2, 6722,7183,4574,4634,6804,7713,9003, 9124, 3623,9284, 1394,4614, 2214, 1474,4144,6664,597

mports

ports 3

Manu-fac-

turedgoods

3,7504,684

4, 6024,2575,3986,3796,7676,1407,5567,2648,4648,0438,6368,2478, 0208,8648,1958,7488,826

Total(c.i.f.

value) *

6,1319,000

9,0008,654

10, 82513, 13013, 43213, 20314, 37013, 15715, 38114, 57015, 43614, 89414, 60715, 74815, 03016, 14416, 068

Mer<

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)

lessim-

ports(cus-tomsvalue)

112-257

—257853

—581—2, 297-3,314-3, Oil-2, 581-2,455-4, 649-2,915-2,983-2, 358-1, 702-3,082-1,706-1, 824-2, 196

Aandisebalance

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)

lessim-

portsft r\ r, \(f.a.s.)

-195

—195918

—488—2, 211-3,230-2, 929-2,475

-2, 367-4, 518-2,787-2,861-2,238-1,597-2, 987-1, 621-1,691-2, 128

trade

Exports(f.a.s.)less

imports(c.i.f.)

—229-841

—841312

—1, 229—3, 034-4, 074-3, 725-3,371

-3, 143-5,459-3, 658-3, 801-3, 141-2,482-3, 956-2, 561-2,715-3,058

1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military sup-plies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program.

2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.4 C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the

United States. Data for 1973 are estimates.

5 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exportsand at foreign port of exportation for imports.

NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the third quarter, the current account deficit widened to $3.8 billion from $3.1 billion in the second quarter. Themerchandise trade deficit rose marginally, from $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion.

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-10

1970.


1977 1978


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

197119721973197419751976___.1977

1977:1---!!___III__IV..

1978: !___II~_IIL.

M

Ex-ports

43, 31949, 38171, 41098, 306

107, 088114, 694120, 576

29, 47730, 62931, 00929, 461

30, 66435, 06736, 930

erehandise

Im-ports

-45,579-55,797-70,499

-103,649-98,041

-124,047-151,706

-36, 502-37,263-38,277-39,664

-41, 865-42, 869-44,975

1 2

Nethnl.Ucl.1—

ance

-2,260-6,416

911-5,343

9,047-9,353

-31, 130

-7,025-6,634-7,268

-10,203

-11,201-7,802-8,045

Invc

Re-ceipts

12, 68814, 69421, 69727, 54125, 35929, 24432, 100

7,7968,0888,2207,997

9,38110, 0039,946

jstment IE

Pay-ments

-5,436-6,544-9,655

-12,084- 12, 564-13,311-14,593

-3, 197-3,601-3,610-4, 185

-4, 503-5,420-5, 396

icome *

NetJLl Cl»

7,2528,150

12, 04215, 45712, 79515, 93317, 507

4,5994,4874,6103,812

4,8784,5834,550

Netmili-tary

trans-actions

— 2,893-3,621-2,287-2,080

-876312

1,334

568295467

5

210592177

Net-traveland

trans-porta-

tionreceipts

-2, 315-3,028-3,086-3, 105-2,522-2,245-3,044

-907-759-677-701

-823-626-802

Otherserv-ices,net8

2,5092,7893,1853,9754,6174,7144,749

1,1361,1711,2601, 183

1,3611,4681,563

Bal-anceon

goodsand

serv-ices 3

2,294-2, 12510, 7668,905

23, 0609,361

-10,585

-1,630-1,440-1,609-5,903

-5,576-1,785-2,557

Remit-tances,pen-

sions,and

otheruni-

lateraltrans-fers1

-3,701-3,854-3,881-7, 186-4, 615-5,022-4, 708

-1,126-1,243-1,277-1,064

-1,282-1,317-1,267

Bal-anceon

cur-rentac-

count

-1,407-5,979

6,8851,719

18, 4454,339

-15,292

-2, 756-2, 683-2, 886-6,967

-6, 858-3, 102-3,824

1 Excludes military grants.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct

investments in the United States are excluded from investment income andincluded in other services, net.



U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedAfter falling by $5.7 billion in ihe second quarter, foreign official assets in the U.S. rose by $4.9 billion in the thirdquarter. The accumulation of U.S. private assets abroad accelerated from $5.3 billion in the second quarter to $9.7billion in the third quarter. This rise was partially offset by an increase in the accumulation of other foreign assets inthe U.S. from $6.1 billion in the second quarter to $9.7 billion in the third quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS30 I

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1 30

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

20

10

20

10

CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S., NET

-10

-20

-30

-10

-20

-301970 1978

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC. ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1971197219731974197519761977

1977: IIIIIIIV

1978: IIIIII *>__

U.[incre

Total

- 12, 475- 14, 461-22,823-34,712-39,444-50,608- 34, 650

- 1, 334- 12, 003

— 6,615-14,700

-15,036-6, 134

-11,006

S. assetsase/capita

U.S.officialreserveassets 1 2

2,34832

209- 1, 434

-607-2,530

-231

-3886

151

246329180

abroad,1 outflow

OtherU.S.

Govern-mentassets

-1,884-1,568-2,644

366-3,470-4,213-3,679

— 949-795

— 1, 098-838

— 896-1,176-1,494

tiet( — )]

U.S.privateassets 2

- 12, 939- 12, 925-20,388

33, 643— 35,368-43,865-30,740

3-11,214-5,668

-13,862

-14,386-5, 287-9, 692

Fore[inci

Total

22, 98721, 69618, 66334, 67715, 55036, 96950, 869

2,49014, 06414, 25120, 065

18, 095406

14, 612

ign assets*ease/capit

Foreignass

Total

26, 89510, 7056,299

10, 9816,907

18, 07337, 124

5,4517,8848,246

15, 543

15, 760-5, 685

4, 904

in the U.al inflow

i officialets

Assets offoreignofficialreserveagencies

27, 40510, 3225, 145

10, 2575,259

13, 08035, 480

4,9467,4677,914

15, 153

14, 956-5, 373

4,554

S., net(+)]*

Otherforeignassets

-3,90710, 99112, 36423, 6968,643

18, 89713, 746

-2, 9626, 1806,0054,522

2,3366,0909,708

Alloca-tions

ofspecial

drawingrights

(SDR)

717710

Statidiscre

Total(sum of

theitems

with signreversed)

-9,822-1,966-2,725-1,684

5,4499,300-927

1,600622

-4, 7511,602

3,7988,830

218

stiealpancy

Ofwhich :

Seasonaladjust-ment

discrep-ancy

131-179

-2,2292,276

160-1

-2, 411

U.S.officialreserveassets,net1

(unad-justed,end of

period)

12, 16713, 15114, 37815, 88316, 22618, 74719, 312

19, 12019, 15618, 98819, 312

19, 19218, 864

1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, andthe U.S. reserve position in the IMF.

2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of the Treasury.


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ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING pagc

Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates. 19Business Sales and Inventories-—Total and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices 23Changes in Producer Prices 24Changes in Consumer Prices 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock 26Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors 27Consumer Instalment Credit 27Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Budge Receipts and Outlays and Debt 32Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36

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Economic Indicators: December 1978

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