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Economic History of Esoteric Metals - Sykes et al - Sep 2014 - China Metals Week
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Transcript of Economic History of Esoteric Metals - Sykes et al - Sep 2014 - China Metals Week
AN ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE
ESOTERIC METALS MARKETS:
Batteries, Electronics, Light Alloys,
Antimony, China, Cheap Energy,
Industrialization, Globalization and
High Technology
John P. Sykes & Allan Trench Centre for Exploration Targeting,
Curtin University & University of Western Australia
Joshua Wright Rowton Ltd
Metal Pages China Metals Week Conference
Beijing, China: 16th Sept 2014
Metal Pages China Metals Week
The past is no indicator of the future…
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Antimony & Light Metals
Antimony Aluminium Magnesium
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
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Battery Metals
Cadmium Cobalt Lithium
Nickel Vanadium
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Some Electronic Metals…
Bismuth Selenium Tin
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
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…More Electronic Metals
Gallium Germanium Tantalum
? ?
?
?
Slide 2 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
But the past has some lessons to teach
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Antimony & Light Metals
Antimony Aluminium Magnesium
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
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Battery Metals
Cadmium Cobalt Lithium
Nickel Vanadium
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40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
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ce (
2012 U
S$/t
)
Some Electronic Metals…
Bismuth Selenium Tin
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
19
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19
75
19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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20
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ce (
2012 U
S$/t
)
…More Electronic Metals
Gallium Germanium Tantalum
? ?
? ?
Slide 3 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
STARTING WITH A BRIEF
HISTORY OF THE WORLD
An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 4 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Finite world, with finite mineral deposits
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
“Earth rise” from Apollo 11
Image: The Guardian/NASA
Old Geevor tin mine, Cornwall, UK,
operated late 18th century to 1990
Image: Shutterstock
Slide 5 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Defined by supply, demand & discovery
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
…Demand…
…and Discovery
Supply…
The history of civilisation to some extent is the history of
finding, exploiting and using mineral resources.
Slide 6 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Stone Age tools to…
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
160,000 - 5,000 years ago
Damaidi Rock Art, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
Northwest China
7,000-8,000 years ago Source: http://history.cultural-
china.com/en/56History9528.html
Stonehenge, Southern England
4,000-5,000
years ago
Map: Wikipedia
Slide 7 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Bronze Age tools, metallurgy & trade…
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
5,000 - 3,000 years ago
Map: University of Maryland
Images: Wikipedia /
Shutterstock
Pyramids of Giza Egypt
2,686-2,181 BCE
Late Bronze Age
Trade Routes of
the Mediterranean
Houmuwu Ding Shang Dynasty, China
1,300-1,046 BCE
Slide 8 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
…and Iron Age smelting & empires
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
1,000BCE – 500AD
Terracotta Warriors Qin (Ching) Dynasty, China
221-206 BCE
Iron Age Trans-Eurasian Trade Routes Map: Dorling Kindersley
“Roman Iron
Armour” in the
Film: Gladiator
Slide 9 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Renaissance mining & ‘exploration’…
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
1300-1750AD
Images from De Re
Metallica by
Agricola, 1556
Marco Polo visited
Kublai Khan of Yuan
Dynasty China ~1275
Map of Voyages of Discovery to 1610 Map: World Maps Online
Image: W
ikip
edia
Slide 10 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Industrial Age steel, coal & gold fever…
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Steamship
advert for
Californian
gold rushes
(1849)
Australian gold
miners (1875)
1750-1914AD
Image: S
chm
oop
Bessemer
converter at
Station Square,
Pittsburgh
“Iron and Coal”
by William Bell
Scott (1855-60)
Images: W
ikip
edia
Image: State Library of New South Wales
Slide 11 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
…and discovery of a different type
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Cu Pre-Bronze Age (Pre-3,500 BCE)
Sn Bronze & Iron Ages (3,500-1 CE)
C
Fe Cu
Ag
Au Pb
Cr As
S
Zn
Hg
Sn Sb
Al Renaissance & Industrial Age (1669-1913 CE)
H
Li
Na
K
Rb
Cs
La
Ac
Be
Mg
Ca
Sr
Ba
Sc
Y
Ra
Ti
Zr
Hf
V
Nb
Ta
Mo
W
Mn
Ru
Os
Co
Rh
Ir
Ni
Pd
Pt
Cd
B
Al
Ga
In
Tl
Si
Ge
N
P
Bi
O
Se
Te
Po
F
Cl
Br
I
He
Ne
Ar
Kr
Xe
Rn
Ce
Th
Pr Nd
U
Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu
Pa
Pu Modern Age (1937 CE-present)
Fr Rf Db Sg
Tc
Re
Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg Cn Uut Fl Uup Lv
At
Uus Uuo
Pm
Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr
Slide 12 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
INTO THE MODERN AGE…
An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 13 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Globalisation…
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 14 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
…facilitated by cheap energy…
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Source: IMGArcade.com; Data: Platts UDI Database, June 2012; NB; Circle size represents installed capacity (MW)
Slide 15 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
…and high technology…
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 16 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
…fuelled by Chinese industrialisation
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
History of World Gross Domestic Product (GDP): % of Total in $1990 at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Source: The Economist; Data: Angus Madison
Slide 17 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
…including light alloys
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Images: Shutterstock & Images of the
Elements
Slide 18 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
…electronics…
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Images: Shutterstock & Images of the Elements
Slide 19 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
…and batteries
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Images: Shutterstock; Images of the Elements & Techhive.com
Slide 20 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
But not ‘Rise of the Esoteric Metals’?
0
100
200
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400
500
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1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Market size of Base, Precious & Esoteric Metals over the last 100 years in 2012
dollars (millions)
Antimony
Electronic Metals (Bi, Ga, Ge, In, Se & Ta)
Light Metals (Mg & Ti)
Battery Metals (Cd, Co, Li & V)
Precious Metals (Au, Ag & PGMs)
Base Metals (Al, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sn & Zn)
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1913
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012Data: USGS
Slide 21 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
THE STRANGE & ESOTERIC
STORY OF ALUMINIUM
An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 22 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Aluminium: the 20th Century Metal
0
50
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400
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Market size of the Base Metals over the last 100 years in 2012 dollars (millions)
Copper
Tin
Zinc
Lead
Aluminium
Nickel
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1913
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012Data: USGS
Slide 23 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
How to use a lot of metal
For a metal to be mined in large volumes
it must:
1. Be relatively abundant in the crust
2. Geologically concentrate into
mineral deposits
3. Be easy to mine the ore from the
ground
4. Be easy to extract the metal from
the ore
5. Have diversified and substantial
demand
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
DISCOVERY
SUPPLY
DEMAND
Based on: Krishnamurthy & Gupta (2004)
Slide 24 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Solving supply & demand for aluminium
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
ABUNDANCE
CONCENTRATION
8.2%
Factors in place prior to 20th
century
Images: sandatlas.org; earlham.edu; tempraturedetectors.com & shutterstock
MINING
PROCESSING
DEMAND
Problems solved in late 19th &
early 20th century
Slide 25 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
CAN THERE BE ANOTHER
‘ALUMINIUM STORY’?
An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 26 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Most are just too rare in the crust...
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Aluminium 82,000 ppm Tin 2.2 ppm
Magnesium 23,000 ppm Tantalum 2 ppm
Titanium 5,600 ppm Germanium 1.8 ppm
Vanadium 160 ppm Antimony 0.2 ppm
Cadmium 0.11 ppm
Nickel 80 ppm Silver 0.07 ppm
Cobalt 20 ppm Selenium 0.05 ppm
Lithium 20 ppm Indium 0.049 ppm
Gallium 18 ppm Bismuth 0.048 ppm
Data: Wikipedia
Slide 27 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Some do not geologically concentrate
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Usually mined as
primary product Usually mined as by-product
Aluminium Antimony (lead-zinc ores)
Lithium Bismuth (lead-zinc ores)
Magnesium Cadmium (lead-zinc ores)
Nickel Cobalt (nickel-copper ores)
Tantalum Gallium (bauxite ores)
Tin Germanium (lead-zinc ores)
Titanium Indium (lead-zinc ores)
Selenium (nickel-copper ores)
Vanadium (nickel-copper ores)
Slide 28 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Some require alternative mining
techniques...
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Usually mined via conventional
hard rock mining
Requires alternative mining
techniques
Aluminium Germanium Lithium (brine mining)
Antimony Indium Magnesium (brine mining)
Bismuth Nickel Titanium (placer mining)
Cadmium Selenium Tin (placer mining & conflict
minerals)
Cobalt Vanadium Tantalum (conflict minerals)
Gallium
Slide 29 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Some need improvements in
processing technology...
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Well established
processing techniques Known processing challenges
Aluminium Magnesium (Brine extraction technology needs
improving)
Lithium Tantalum (Wide variety of complex
processes – none established)
Nickel Titanium (Kroll process to produce titanium
sponge is very expensive)
Tin Vanadium (Separation from iron ores difficult,
usually sold as ferroalloy)
Antimony, Bismuth,
Cadmium, Cobalt,
Gallium, Germanium,
Indium & Selenium
(Processed as a by-product)
Slide 30 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Some need broader uses...
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Wide range of uses Narrow range of uses
Aluminium (Transportation, packaging,
infrastructure) Antimony (Mainly a flame retardant)
Cobalt (Alloys, batteries, catalysts,
pigments) Bismuth
(Mainly in chemicals,
electronics only minor)
Lithium (Batteries, metallurgy,
ceramics) Cadmium (Mainly used in batteries)
Magnesium (Alloys, transportation,
electronics, chemicals) Gallium
(Almost exclusively used in
semiconductors)
Nickel (Steel, alloys, batteries) Germanium (Mainly used in optics,
electronics use minor)
Tantalum (Capacitors, alloys, chemicals) Indium (Mainly used in electronics)
Tin (Solders, packaging,
chemicals, alloys) Selenium
(Mainly used in glass industry,
solar cell use minor)
Titanium (Steel, alloys, transportation,
industry) Vanadium (Mainly used in steel alloys)
Slide 31 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Some will always be ’precious’
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Metal A
bu
nd
an
ce
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n
Min
ing
Pro
cessin
g
De
ma
nd
2012
Production
(tonnes)
2012
Market
(US$
million)
Gold x √ √ √ √ 2,500 139,800
Silver x ? √ √ √ 25,500 25,600
PGMs x x √ ? √ <500 8,800
Antimony x x √ x x 174,000 2,200
Indium x x √ x x <1,000 ~500
Bismuth x x √ x x 8,200 <500
Selenium x x √ x x 2,200 <500
Cadmium x x √ x x 20,900 <50
Data: USGS
Slide 32 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Most only have base metal potential...
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Metal A
bu
nd
an
ce
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n
Min
ing
Pro
ce
ss
ing
De
ma
nd
2012
Production
(tonnes)
2012
Market
(US$
million)
Lead ? ? x x ? 5,170,000 13,000
Tin x √ x √ √ 240,000 6,800
Cobalt ? x √ x √ 100,000 3,100
Lithium ? √ x √ √ 650,000 2,700
Gallium ? x √ x x <500 200
Tantalum ? √ x x √ <1,000 200
Germanium ? x √ x x <500 250
Data: USGS
Slide 33 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
But a few have bulk metal potential...
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Metal A
bu
nd
an
ce
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n
Min
ing
Pro
ce
ss
ing
De
ma
nd
2012
Production
(tonnes)
2012
Market
(US$
million)
Aluminium √ √ √ √ √ 45,900,000 136,900
Copper ? √ √ √ √ 16,900,000 102,200
Nickel ? √ √ √ ? 2,220,000 38,800
Zinc ? √ √ √ ? 13,500,000 28,500
Titanium √ √ x x √ 6,159,200 3,900
Magnesium √ √ x x √ 802,000 3,400
Vanadium √ x √ x x 74,300 1,900
Data: USGS
Slide 34 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
SOME FINAL THOUGHTS
An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 35 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Understanding the future?
• History is to some extent about the discovery, mining and use of
metals.
• However, until the industrial revolution only a few metals were
known to mankind.
• Modern globalised society has therefore had a wider variety of
esoteric metals available for economic use.
• The esoteric metals have facilitated mass transportation,
communication, energy use and ultimately globalisation.
• However, with the exception of aluminium, none of the esoteric
metals have become substantial markets.
• Aluminium has always been abundant in the crust and
concentrated into mineral deposits.
• However, in the late 19th/early 20th century bulk mining, the Hall-
Heroult process, cheap energy and mass transportation facilitated
a massive increase in the aluminium market.
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 36 of 39
Metal Pages China Metals Week
Innovating the future!
• For other esoteric metals to become major industrial metal markets
they will need to be:
– Sufficiently abundant in the crust.
– Concentrate into mineral deposits.
– Be simple to mine.
– Be simple to process.
– And have a broad range of important industrial uses.
• Some esoteric metals are geologically rare.
• However, most esoteric metals just require improvements in
mining and/or processing technology, and/or new and wider
industrial uses.
• All factors must however be in place - no single technology will be
the solution – look for discovery and ‘technology packages’.
• Understanding the future of the esoteric metals markets is about
the interaction of discovery, supply and demand innovations.
16 Sep 2014
An Economic History of the Esoteric
Metals Markets
Slide 37 of 39
THANK YOU
For more information:
Centre for Exploration Targeting: www.cet.edu.au
Greenfields Research: www.greenfieldsresearch.com
Rowton Ltd: www.rowton-ltd.com
Contact information:
John P. Sykes: [email protected]
Joshua Wright: [email protected]
Allan Trench: [email protected]
Learn more on “Mineral
Economics for Geologists”
Date: 2nd December 2014
Website:
http://www.cet.edu.au/education-and-
training/short-courses/mineral-economics-
for-geologists
Contact: Centre for Exploration Targeting
Prof Allan Trench
Mr John Sykes