Economic Freedom: Where We Rank and

Why It Matters

DEAN STANSEL

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS

FLORIDA GULF COAST UNIVERSITY

HTTP://WWW.DEANSTANSEL.COM

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1) Where do we rank (Arkansas, and Little Rock)?

2) Why are we so low?

3) Why does it matter?

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“It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a ‘dismal science.’ But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.” -- Murray Rothbard, Austrian Economist

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Economic Freedom Project

What is it?An initiative to help publicize the findings of the Economic Freedom of the World Report and the Economic Freedom of North America Report and economic freedom in general.

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How Do We Rank?•U.S. is down to 12th place from 7th in 2008 and 2nd in 2000.

•Arkansas ranks 36th,(below all of its neighbors) down 7 places over the last 6 years. It ranked as high as 17th in 1991.

•Who was leader in 2000 & 1991?

•Available at: www.freetheworld.com

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An Economic FreedomIndex of U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Dean StanselFlorida Gulf Coast University

dstansel@fgcu.edu

Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 43, 1 (2013): 3-20. http://www.jrap-journal.org/ or http://t.co/xfKmP2VHjO

Rank TOP 10 AREASOverall

EFI

1 Naples-Marco Island, FL MSA 8.52

2 Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin, FL MSA 8.39

3 Manchester-Nashua, NH MSA 8.37

4 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL MD 8.34

5 Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL MSA 8.33

6 Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL MSA 8.33

7 Rockingham County-Strafford County, NH MD 8.23

8 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL MSA 8.17

9 Sioux Falls, SD MSA 8.11

10 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 8.07

Rank BOTTOM 10 AREASOverall

EFI

384 El Centro, CA MSA 3.32

383 Visalia-Porterville, CA MSA 4.19

382 Merced, CA MSA 4.31

381 Kingston, NY MSA 4.48

380 Glens Falls, NY MSA 4.50

379 Bakersfield, CA MSA 4.57

378 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ MD 4.60

377 Modesto, CA MSA 4.66

376 Fresno, CA MSA 4.79

375 Wenatchee-East Wenatchee, WA MSA 4.88

Summary of Results

•All of top 10 are in states with no tax on labor income (FL, NH, SD)

•9 of bottom 10 are in California or New York (and 15 of bottom 20)

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Economic Freedom in Little Rock

•Little Rock ranked 116 out of the 384 metropolitan areas in the U.S.

•It ranked 1st out of 6 metro areas in Arkansas...

•…but behind 3 of 8 in MO, 2 of 3 in OK, 9 of 10 in TN, and 19 of 26 in TX

Why Has Economic Freedom Declined?

•Federal spending has doubled since 2000 and tripled since 1990.

•Personal income has only gone up by less than half since 2000.

•We have an over-spending problem, NOT an under-taxing problem.

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Table 1.1—SUMMARY OF RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND SURPLUSES OR DEFICITS

(in millions of dollars)

YearTotal

Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (−)

1990 1,031,958 1,252,994 -152,6392000 2,025,191 1,788,950 236,2412004 1,880,114 2,292,841 -412,7272008 2,523,991 2,982,544 -458,5532012 2,450,164 3,537,127 -1,086,9632014 estimate 3,001,721 3,650,526 -648,805Source: Historical Tables of the Budget, FY2015, Office of Management and Budget.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals

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Spending & Deficits at Post-WW2 High

•As a percent of GDP, federal spending hit a post-WW2 high of 25.2% in 2009.

•The federal deficit as a percent of GDP has also been at its highest level since WW2. •It hit 10.1% in 2009.•It has exceeded 5% five years in a row.

Source: Historical Tables of the Budget, FY2014, Office of Management and Budget.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals

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Debt as % of GDP at Post-WW2 High

Entitlement Spending

•Cato Institute found that welfare pays more than:

•the starting wage for a secretary in 39 states.

•the average first year wage for a teacher in 11 states.

•an entry-level computer programmer in the 3 most generous states.

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Obamacare

•AKA, The Unaffordable Care Act•Higher taxes•Higher spending•Regulatory uncertainty•Unintended consequences

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Tax Freedom Day

•The Tax Foundation

•Was April 21st this year.

•3 days later than last year.

•11 days later than in 2009.

•If we include deficits, which require higher future taxes, it was 15 days later (May 6)

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The President’s $1 Trillion Tax Hike

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Expanding Tax Code

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Cost of Tax Compliance

•$37 billion in 2012 preparing federal individual, business, and employment tax returns.

•3.24 billion hours•The equivalent of 369,858 years

•Source: McCaherty, “The Cost of Tax Compliance,” Tax Foundation, Sep. 2014.

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•According to the OECD “the United States has the most progressive income tax system among industrialized nations. … The richest 10 percent of households in the United States (those making $112,124 or more) contribute a greater share of taxes (45.1 percent of all income taxes) than their counterparts in any other industrialized nation.”

•The OECD average is 31.6 percent. The next highest is Italy at about 42%. Only a handful of others are above 35%.

Source: http://mercatus.org/publication/progressivity-taxes-oecd-countries-mid-2000s

23Source: Dan Mitchell, Cato Institute, http://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/

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International Tax Competitiveness

•The U.S. ranks 32nd out of the 34 OECD countries.•Highest corporate tax rate

•Double taxation of capital gains and dividends

•1 of only 6 with a “worldwide system of taxation”

•Source: Pomerleau & Lundeen, "2014 International Tax Competitiveness Index," Tax Foundation, September 15, 2014.

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Regulatory Burden Is High and Rising

•The Federal Register contains 81,000 pages of regulations.

•It would take more than 2 years to read through all of it.

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Cost of Federal Regulations

•$2 trillion in 2012 •$9,991 per employee, all industries

•$19,564 per employee in the manufacturing industry

•$34,671 per employee in the manufacturing industry (small businesses, < 50 employees)

• Source: Crain & Crain, “The Cost of Federal Regulation to the U.S. Economy, Manufacturing & Small Business,” National Association of Manufacturers, Sep. 2014.

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Sen. George McGovern (D-SD)• “I also wish that during the years I was in public office, I had had this firsthand experience about the difficulties business people face every day. That knowledge would have made me a better U.S. senator and a more understanding presidential contender.”

• Source: George Mc Govern, “A Politician's Dream Is a Businessman's Nightmare,” Wall Street Journal, 6/1/92.

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Arkansas - Taxes

•According to the Tax Foundation, Arkansas’ 2011 tax burden of 10.3% ranks 12th highest out of 50 states.

•It ranks 35th overall in state business tax climate.

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Arkansas - Business•Arkansas had the 2nd most burdensome occupational licensing requirements on the Institute for Justice “License to Work” report.

•$212 in fees and 689 days of education and experience

•www.ij.org/licensetowork

•According to Chief Executive, Arkansas ranks 29 out of 50 on the 2014 Best & Worst States for Business Rankings.

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Arkansas - Business

•Arkansas was one of four states to pass an increase in the minimum wage at the polls last week.

•The increase will put Arkansas above the federal minimum wage.

•Combined with the occupational licensing restrictions, this will make it even harder for low-skilled workers to find a job.

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Arkansas - Economy

•Arkansas ranks only 37th in 2012-2013 population growth

•The U.S. average is twice as high

•The average for the South is three times higher.

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“And if I spend somebody else’s money on somebody else, I’m not concerned about how much it is, and I’m not concerned about what I get. And that’s government.” -- Milton Friedman

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Economic FreedomWhy does it matter?Areas with more economic freedom have higher: GDP, GDP growth, Income of the poorest 10%, Income share of the poorest 10%, political freedom, civil liberties, life satisfaction, literacy, life expectancy, and cleaner environments

And, lower: unemployment, child labor, infant mortality rates, and corruption

Per Capita Income Is Much Higher in Nations with Higher Economic Freedom

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-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

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Average Growth in Economic Freedom at the All-Government Level (percent)

(Deviations from National Mean)

Avera

ge G

row

th in

Real

GD

P p

er

Cap

ita (

perc

en

t)

(Devia

tion

s f

rom

Nati

on

a

MEan

)

Per Capita GDP Growth Is Positively Correlated with Economic Freedom in States

Least Free Fourth Third Second Most Free0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

6.8%

5.9%5.4%

5.0%5.3%

Economic Freedom Quintiles

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e, 2

002

Unemployment Is Much Lower in Metro Areas with Higher Economic Freedom

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“…no human wisdom or knowledge could ever be sufficient … for the proper performance of … the duty of superintending the industry of private people, and of directing it towards the employments most suitable to the interest of the society.”-- Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations

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Source: Dan Mitchell, Cato Institute, http://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/

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Consumer Power in Health Care

•Lasik surgery

•Not covered by most health insurance plans

•Price has fallen dramatically over the years

•Cosmetic surgery is another example.

•“Price” of other medical procedures has risen much faster than inflation

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Prescription for Growth

INCREASE

ECONOMIC

FREEDOM1. Rein-in spending

2. Lower taxes

3. Reduce the regulatory burden

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The Good News…

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Nation’s Leader Rejects Keynesian Economics,

Acknowledges that Real Jobs Are Created by the Private Sector

“We need to put an end to illusions: it’s not the public sector that creates jobs. To

believe that injecting billions … [into the economy] is the

key to growth is an idea of the past.”

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Nation’s Leader … Acknowledges that Real Jobs Are Created by the

Private Sector

That quote was from Alexander Stubb, the Prime Minister of Finland, not the

President of the United States.

Source: https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/nations-leader-rejects-keynesian-economics-acknowledges-that-real-jobs-are-created-by-the-private-sector/

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“Capitalism has been the most effective ideology we have known in taking people out of extreme poverty.”-- Bono

Economic Freedom: Where We Rank and Why

It Matters

DEAN STANSELASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS

FLORIDA GULF COAST UNIVERSITY

HTTP://WWW.DEANSTANSEL.COM

HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/DEAN.STANSEL.1

HTTPS://TWITTER.COM/DEANSTANSEL