Economic Development and...
Transcript of Economic Development and...
![Page 1: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economic Development and
Diversification; A Case of
Azerbaijan
CESD
September 2017
![Page 2: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Content
- Oil boom vs. post-oil period
- Assessment of the oil boom period
- Rooms for diversification in the post-oil period
- Diversification reforms; done and should be
![Page 3: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
SOFAZ’s Revenues (billion USD)
16.31
19.8
17.41 17.33
16.23
7.67
5.88
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
![Page 4: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
TRANSFERS TO THE STATE BUDGET
7.39
11.39
12.67
14.55
11.97
7.92
4.76
5.915
9
9.905
11.35
9.337
8.13
7.615
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Billion manat
![Page 5: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
SHARE OF OIL MONEYTRANSFERS IN
THE REVENUES OF STATE BUDGET, %
51.90%57.30% 57.30% 58.20%
50.70%
66.50%63.50%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
![Page 6: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
ASSETS OF SOFAZ
22.7729.8
34.13 35.88 37.1 33.57 33.15
43.0345.18
48.98 48.0449.31
63.38
87.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Assets to GDP,%
![Page 7: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
GDP OF AZERBAİJAN
52.909
65.95269.683
74.164 75.234
52.97
37.84
42.46
52.0854.74
58.18 59.01
54.38
60.39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Billion manat
![Page 8: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
EXCHANGE RATE OF USD/Manat
0.80.79 0.78 0.78
0.78
1.026
1.6
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
USD/Manat
![Page 9: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Money Supply (billion manat)11743.6 11541.9
9109.9
5786.9
7860.57277.5 7788.7
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
31,08,2014 31,12,2014 31,02,2015 31,01,2016 31,12,2016 31,03,2017 31,05,2017
![Page 10: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Foreign exchange reserves of the CBA15193.4
13758.3
5016.73974.4 4432.7 4825.4
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
31,07,2014 31,12,2014 30,12,2015 30,12,2016 31,03,2017 31,05,2017
Million USD
![Page 11: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
THE REVENUES OF STATE BUDGET
14.25
19.87
22.16
2523.47
17.05
10.94
11.4
15.7
17.3
19.518.4
17.5
17.51
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Billion manat
![Page 12: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
THE EXPENDITURES OF STATE
BUDGET
14.7
19.5
22.33
24.5423.88
17.33
11.1
11.77
15.4
17.4219.14
18.7117.78
17.75
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Billion manat
![Page 13: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Oil Boom
Mono-culture export country; more 95.0 of total export was oil and oil
products
Strong local currency
Import dependency
Subsidized economic growth
![Page 14: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Post-Oil Period
• Fiscal consolidation
• Less public spending
• From supply economy to demand economy
• Less strong local currency
• More market based reforms
![Page 15: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Conclusion
• From oil boom to post oil period
• Economic transformation to new oil price
• Less public spending, more initiatives
• More chances for diversification
![Page 16: Economic Development and Diversificationcesd.az/.../CESD_Economic-Development-and-Diversification_Azerbaij… · Economic Development and Diversification; A Case of Azerbaijan CESD](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051918/600af4f9d2dc3b4b31509258/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Thank you
www.cesd.az