Economic, Demographic and Technological Change
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Economic, Demographic and Technological Change
James W. Hughes, Dean2014
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Home of the Edward J. Bloustein School
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Business Cycle Phases
Expansion: November 2001 - December 2007
(Great)Recession: December 2007 - June 2009:
18 months in length
Current Expansion: June 2009 – September 2014:
63 months in length
Average Duration of Post-WW II Expansions: 58 months
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U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2009-2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-6,000,000
-5,000,000
-4,000,000
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
-5,013,000
1,277,000
2,400,0002,294,000
2,368,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.
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U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2009-2014
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
-6,000,000
-5,000,000
-4,000,000
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
-5,013,000
1,277,000
2,400,0002,294,000 2,365,000 2,520,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. * Based on first 8 months ( December 2013 – August 2014).Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.
New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change2009 - 2012
2009 2010 2011 2012
-160,000
-120,000
-80,000
-40,000
0
40,000
80,000
-114,400
8,200
28,80045,400
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (*) Estimate based on data through June 2013.
New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change2009 - 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-160,000
-120,000
-80,000
-40,000
0
40,000
80,000
-114,400
8,200
28,80045,400
62,800*
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2013: Private-Sector Employment
2013: First 6 Months +31,400 jobs
2013: Last 6 Months -11,600 jobs
2013: Full Year +19,800 jobs
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.
New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change2009 - 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-160,000
-120,000
-80,000
-40,000
0
40,000
80,000
-114,400
8,200
28,80045,400
19,800
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2013: Private-Sector Employment
2013: First 6 Months +31,400 jobs
2013: Last 6 Months -11,600 jobs
2013: Full Year +19,800 jobs
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Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
17,200
14,200
5,600
-17,200
600
18,500
New Jersey Private Sector Employment ChangeQ1 2013 – Q2 2014
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
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New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster(Employment change for periods indicated)
1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
(24,800)
622,400
(260,100)
578,500
(61,100)
128,700
(256,600)
110,200
Num
ber
of J
obs
7 Months
83 Months
37 Months
104 Months
19 Months
66 Months
32 Months
Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – June 2014
45 Months
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.
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Obsolete Industrial Plant
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The Great 1980s Office Building Boom
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Suburban Office Agglomeration
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Information Technology ErasPre- and Early-PC
1981 IBM PC Introduced 8088 microprocessor chip
1983 IBM XT
1984 IBM AT 80286 microprocessor chip
1986 80386 microprocessor chip
1989 80486
1993 Pentium 80586
PC Intense – Fiber Optic
1995 Window to the Internet
Mobile Internet – Untethered
2007 iPhone
2008 Affordable Powerful Notebooks
2010 iPad
2011-2012
Widespread availability of 4G LTE
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386 Microprocessor
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Information Technology ErasPre- and Early-PC
1981 IBM PC Introduced 8088 microprocessor chip
1983 IBM XT
1984 IBM AT 80286 microprocessor chip
1986 80386 microprocessor chip
1989 80486
1993 Pentium 80586
PC Intense – Fiber Optic
1995 Window to the Internet
Mobile Internet – Untethered
2007 iPhone
2008 Affordable Powerful Notebooks
2010 iPad
2011-2012
Widespread availability of 4G LTE
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Information Technology ErasPre- and Early-PC
1981 IBM PC Introduced 8088 microprocessor chip
1983 IBM XT
1984 IBM AT 80286 microprocessor chip
1986 80386 microprocessor chip
1989 80486
1993 Pentium 80586
PC Intense – Fiber Optic
1995 Window to the Internet
Mobile Internet – Untethered
2007 iPhone
2008 Affordable Powerful Notebooks
2010 iPad
2011-2012
Widespread availability of 4G LTE
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• Maturing Baby Boom – Redefining Maturity
• Echo-Boomers/Gen Y/Millennials – Redefining the Workforce/Workplace
AT
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The Postwar Baby Boom: 1946-1964
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The Largest Generation in U.S. History
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Tract-House Suburban New Jerseye Suburban
N.J.
• Source: The New York Times
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McMansion
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Serious Serious Middle-Aging
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BABY BOOM: REINVENTING MATURITYaby Boom Reinventing Maturity
• 2011: First Boomer turned 65 years of age
• 2014: All Boomers between 50 and 68 years of age
• 2015: Fully one-half of all Boomers will be in their 60s
• 2016: First Boomers will turn 70 years of age
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We will not fade away quietly!
Source: Christian Science Monitor
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The The Eventual Slowdown Slowdown
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Baby Boomer in Retirementn Retirement
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Beach Boys: Little Deuce Coupe
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The Invasion of the Stroller People
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Echo Boom: 1977-1995oom: 1977-1995
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Generation “Y” Today
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The Digerati
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Girl-Boy Brooklyn Hipsters
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1970s George and Albany Streets
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2000s: George and Albany
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1970s: MP 54 Electric MU Cars Electric MU Cars
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1970s: Interior Seating
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No Cellphones or Tablets – Just Print
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2000s: NJ Transit Bi-Level Cars
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2000s: Interior Seating
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Prototypical 1970s Subway Car
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1970s Interior
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New 2000s Subway Fleet
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Interior
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1970s:11970s Destination: Times Square Seedy Times Square
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2000s Times Square
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Merck Headquarters in Whitehouse Station: Stranded Asset in Whitehouse Station
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BASF in BASF – Mount Olive – Stranded Asset 2ve
Source: Bing Maps 2011.
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Aetna Construction Completed 1983
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