Economic crises and the role of science

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Barend van der Meulen | 1 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Introduction

Disasters and crises have a familiar answer: more investments in knowledge

• Flood Disaster 1953 Netherlands• Sputnik Shock 1957 US• Ozone hole 1985 Global• Global warming 1988-... Global• 9/11 2001 US - Global• Earthquake 2011 Japan• Economic crisis 2008 // Euro crisis 2011

Barend van der Meulen | 2 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Flood disaster 1953 Netherlands

Barend van der Meulen | 3 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Sputnik Shock 1957

Barend van der Meulen | 4 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Global warming 1988-…

Barend van der Meulen | 5 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Economic crisis 2008 // 2011

Two observations1. The crisis comes not

from outside, and science is part of the problem.

2. Calls for investments in basic science come with claims that revenues will take 20-years

Barend van der Meulen | 6 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Science and the crisis I: economics

• Trigger: the destruction of the housing market.• Is there no science involved? There is!

Sociology of knowledge applied to markets and finance show how financial practices are entangled with knowledge, technology and information. (eg MacKenzie, Knorr-Cetina, Callon)

• Theoretical misfits:• Distribution of risks• Possibilities of markets to correct greed• Role of big firms as stabilizing institutions

Barend van der Meulen | 7 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Role of science in crisis II: NBIC

Barend van der Meulen | 8 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

Kondratieff waves• New science and

technology• New economic sectors

and growth• New international

balances

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

International scientific portfolios

Barend van der Meulen | 9 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

Former soviet: Chemistry, Mechanics New Asian

NBIC

US - EuropePhysics, Health

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

The Netherlands, Massachussetts, South-Korea

Barend van der Meulen | 10 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

Economic crisis is part of a global economic and scientifid shift

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

First conclusions / lessons

1. Disasters have usual response: more science2. But science is not only a solution but part of the

problem3. Science and practices entangled in

“scientific-technological-social paradigms”4. Challenge for risk control is to organize diversity

in science and society5. Challenge for STI governance in Europe to reform

STI institutions

Barend van der Meulen | 11 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Effects on science: Europe 2008

Different starting positions- Science intensive

countries UK, GE, FR, CH, NL, SU

- Many small countries catching up: CEEC

Barend van der Meulen | 12 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

EU response: New Horizon 2020

Excellent Science

• European Research Council

• Future & Emergent Technology

• Training and career• Infrastructures

 € 24 598 million

Industrial Leadership

• leadership in Key Enabling Technologies

• access to risk finance

• innovation in SMEs

 € 17 938 million

Barend van der Meulen | 13 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

Societal Challenges

• Health and demographic change

• Food security• Secure and clean energy• Smart transport• Climate and resource

efficiency• Inclusive societies

€ 31 748 million

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

National responses: mix

• Investments in science, policies to restructure the science system and breed European Top Universities within global competition

(eg Denmark, Germany, France) • No new budgets and policies to link universities

closer to industry (eg UK, Netherlands)

• New budgets cuts especially in countries suffering from the Eurocrisis

(eg Greece, Portugal, etc.)

Barend van der Meulen | 14 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

European struggle

Securing the science system

- European identity- strong in scientific

output and impact- weak links with

economy- Institutional inert

Building an innovation system

- European paradox- Emphasising

societal challenges- University industry

collaborations- Institutional reforms

Barend van der Meulen | 15 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Three possible outcomes

Scenario 1: Horizon 2020 results in a European knowledge area with integrated processes of research, innovation and higher education

Scenario 2: Horizon 2020 is obstructed by national ressentiments and results in more complexity and further institutional inertia.

Scenario 3: Horizon 2020 and national policies together create European winners and national losers

Barend van der Meulen | 16 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake

AAAS 2012 Vancouver | February 17th

Final conclusions / lessons

1. But science is not only a solution but part of the problem

2. Challenge for risk control is to organize diversity in science and society

3. Challenge: new governance of science, technology and innovation

4. But science as a solution creates struggles about the role of science and its position

5. Danger: more scientific research but without restructuring may create more lock-ins

Barend van der Meulen | 17 | JST session Redesigning the Governance of STI after the Earthquake