https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx

Monetary Policy Group July 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions June 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

Content 1 Executive Summary 1

2 The Thai Economy 3

2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector Real Estate

2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position

2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments

2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates

2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market External stability

3 Link to related statistics and contents 13

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

1

1. Executive Summary

In June 2020, the Thai economy improved from the previous month due to the gradual relaxation of lockdown measures both in Thailand and abroad, supporting economic activities to resume operations. As a result, merchandise exports value excluding gold, private consumption and private investment indicators, and manufacturing production contracted at a lower rate. Meanwhile, public spending expanded both in current and capital expenditures. Nevertheless, the tourism sector continued to contract substantially due to international travel restrictions.

Overall economic stability remained vulnerable. Headline and core inflations were negative, consistent with weak domestic demand. The number of unemployed persons continued to increase. The current account was balanced. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus from both the asset and the liability positions.

Details of the economic conditions are as follows:

The value of merchandise exports contracted by 24.6 percent from the same period last year, slightly higher than the previous month. Excluding gold, however, the contraction rate substantially reduced to 18.4 percent from 29.0 percent last month. This was due to the improvement of exports in almost all categories, consistent with improving in economic activities in trading partner countries after the relaxation of lockdown measures. Nevertheless, the contraction rate of merchandise exports value remained high, especially automotive and parts, machinery and equipment, and petroleum-related products, reflecting weakening income of trading partners.

Private consumption indicators contracted at a lower rate compared with the previous month. Spending in all categories improved as a result of the relaxation of the lockdown measures, resulting in an increase in consumer spending outside, coupled with supports from the government’s relief measures However, private consumption indicators still highly contracted in line with weak household income and low consumer confidence. Manufacturing production contracted at a lower rate in almost all industries, consistent with the improvement of exports and private consumption.

Private investment indicators contracted at a slower pace compared with the previous month due to an improvement of investment in machinery and equipment from domestic machinery sales, the number of newly registered motor vehicles, and imports of capital goods. Meanwhile, investment in construction contracted at a higher rate from construction material sales. However, private investment indicators still contracted substantially due to weak domestic and external demand, high excess production capacity, and fragile business sentiment despite a slightly improvement.

The value of merchandise imports contracted by 18.2 percent from the same period last year, improved from the previous month in all major categories including consumer goods, raw materials and intermediate goods, and capital goods. This was partly as a result of low base effect last year and the recovery of overall economic activities.

Public spending, excluding transfers, expanded from the same period last year both from current and capital expenditures. Current expenditures slightly expanded from purchases on goods and services. Capital expenditures highly expanded due mainly to disbursement of the central government for road maintenance. However, state enterprise’s capital expenditures contracted.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

2

The number of foreign tourist arrivals continued to contract extremely at 100 percent from the same period last year. There was none of foreign tourist arrivals for the third consecutive month due to Thailand’s inbound travel restrictions.

Overall economic stability remained vulnerable. Headline inflation remained negative, although edging up from energy prices due to an increase in domestic retail petroleum prices. Core inflation was slightly negative, consistent with weak domestic demand. Labor market remained vulnerable as partly reflected by the continued increase in the number of jobless claims on the social security system. The current account was balanced. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus from both the asset position owing to the net sell in debt securities and the withdrawal of deposit abroad by Thai investors, and the liability position owing to the net buy in debt securities by foreign investors.

Overall economic activity in the second quarter of 2020 substantially contracted as a result of the strong implementation of COVID-19 containment measures in both Thailand and abroad, temporarily disrupting economic activities. External demand contracted sharply both in the tourism sector affected by international travel restriction measures, and merchandise exports affected by weakening trading partner demand. Consequently, domestic economic activities were affected especially private consumption and private investment indicators as well as manufacturing production. However, public spending expanded and played an important role in supporting Thai economy. On the stability front, headline inflation was negative mainly from a decline in energy prices, while core inflation was slightly positive. The current account posted a small deficit compared with a large surplus in the previous quarter, attributed to a drop in tourism sector receipt coupled with the seasonal remittance of profits and dividends by foreign businesses operating in Thailand. The capital and financial accounts registered a surplus from the asset and the liability positions.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

3

2.1 Supply

Farm income contracted at a lower rate compared with the previous month due to agricultural production rebound. Manufacturing production contracted at a slower pace, in line with the improvement of exports and private consumption indicators. Services sector contraction slightly slowed down.

Farm Income(%YoY) 2 1

2 1 2 2

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun

Nominal farm incomeP 1.5 2.1 1.2 . .1 . -6.2 -6.0 -3.2 -1.9

Agricultural productionP -0.4 1.2 1. 1. . 1 . -13.8 -4.7 -0.3 2.7

Agricultural price

1.8 . 2. 2. . . 8.8 -1.4 2. -4.5

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

60708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share 016R 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP %MoM sa

Food & Beverages Automotives - Passenger Cars - Commercial Vehicles - Engine

Petroleum Chemicals Rubbers & Plastics Cement & Construction IC & Semiconductors Electrical Appliances Textiles & Apparels Hard Disk Drive Others MPI MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

Capacity Utilization (SA)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

MPI Classified by Export Share

455565758595

105115125

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

3.7 %

17.5 %

3.8 %

%MoM sa

(%)Share 016R

2019 2020

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May JunP

Food & Beverages

Automotives

Petroleum

Chemicals

Rubbers & Plastics

Cement & Construction

IC & Semiconductors

Electrical Appliances

Textiles & Apparels

Hard Disk Drive

Others

CAPU sa

Capacity Utilization (sa)

Source: Office of Industrial Economics

Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data

75

85

95

105

115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

** Index of work hours in manufacturing is not available from April to June 2020

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

%MoM sa

2.5 %

0.2 %

Mar = -1.1 %**

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

4

New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area*

9 8

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019 Q1

2020 Q1

Low-rise residents Condominium Total

* seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandSource: Bank of Thailand

Q2/2020

Thousand units,sa

Preliminary

Newly Launched Propertiesin Bangkok and Vicinity Area

11

3

18

05

1015202530354045

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019Q1

2020Q1

Low-rise residents Condominium Total

Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Thousand units,sa

Q2/2020

Housing Price index

152165

192194

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019 Q1

2020 Q1

Single house TownhouseCondominium Land

Source Mortgage loan reported by commercial banks, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Index (Jan2009 = 100) Q2/2020

Preliminary

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)

Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

0

50

100

150

200

250

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Professional Services (4%) Transport (8%)Information (5%) Hotel & Restaurant (10%, RHS)

Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

5

2.2 Domestic Demand

Private consumption indicators contracted at a lower rate, compared with the previous month, as a result of the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures. Private investment indicators contracted at a slower pace due to an improvement of investment in machinery and equipment. Nonetheless, public spending, excluding transfers, expanded compared with the same period last year from both current and capital expenditures.

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Source: Bank of Thailand

90100110120130140150160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. alcohol and tobacco sa, 3mma

Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

1030507090110130150170

8090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

30405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

% YoY 20192 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2P May JunP %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) 3. .2 . . 2. .2 2.2 . -1.6

Construction Materials Index . . 2. . .3 2. 2. 3.3 0.6Real Imports of Capital Goods . . . . .2 . 2 . 3. -0.1Real Domestic Machinery Sales . 3. .2 . . 22. 2 . 22. 3.4Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 3. 2. . . . 2 . 3 . 2. 16.3

Private Investment Index 2. .2 . . . 3. .2 2. .

Private Investment Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

%YoY 20192019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP %MoM sa

Non-durables index 2.3 3.1 1.4 -2.8 1.1 -7.0 -6.4 -3.2 2.9Semi-durables index 0.5 1.2 -0.1 -3.7 -1.6 -5.9 -7.8 -4.4 2.7Durables index -2.0 2.7 -6.2 -20.4 -12.0 -29.1 -32.0 -18.9 22.1Services index 2.8 3.1 2.6 -19.0 -9.9 -28.2 -28.6 -24.3 6.4(less) Net tourist expenditure 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -59.7 -41.0 -88.6 -86.8 -89.7 -21.8

PCI 2.5 3.5 1.6 -4.4 1.7 -10.3 -11.5 -4.7 6.0

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

6

Source : Bank of Thailand

Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)

30

40

50

60

Jan 2014

Jul Jan 2015

Jul Jan 2016

Jul Jan 2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)

Sep 20 47.0

Jun 2038.5

Business Sentiment Index

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019

FY2019 FY2020Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Apr May Jun

Revenue 2,513 (%YoY) (6.8) Expenditure1/ 2,882 (%YoY) (3.1) Budgetary B/L -368 Non-Budgetary B/L -28 Cash B/L (CG) -396 Primary balance 2/ -258 Net Financing 506 Treasury B/L 633

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

010203040506070

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Source: Comptroller General’s Department Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

Jun0.6%

Jun27.9%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

Jun-11.8%

Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)3 per. Mov. Avg. (Construction Materials Index)

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

7

2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PH

ID

MYTH

TWCN

SGKR

85

95

105

115

125

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

US (Jun) Euro Area* (May) Japan (May)

G3 Retail Sales

Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg

Index (Jan 2015 = 100)

Jun 20

The current account was balanced. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus from both the asset position owing to the net sell in debt securities and the withdrawal of deposit abroad by Thai investors, and the liability position owing to the net buy in debt securities by foreign investors.

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunJun

(%MoM)

Consumer Raw material & Intermediate

o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel

Capital

Others

Total (BOP Basis)

Ex. Gold

Ex.Gold&Fuel

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueJun 2020 = 13.8 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 13.4 Bn USD

May 2020 = 12.7 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 12.6 Bn USD

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunJun

(%MoM)

Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing

Agro-manufacturing Electronics

Electrical Appliances

Automotive Machinery & Equipment

Petroleum Related Total (BOP Basis) 0.9

Ex. Gold 7.6Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related 7.6

Export ValueMay 2020 = 15.9 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 14.6 Bn USD

Jun 2020 = 16.1 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 15.8 Bn USD

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

8

%YoY (Share in 2019)

20192019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP

China (27.6%)

Malaysia (10.5%)

Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)

Russia (3.7%)

Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)

India (5.0%)

Others (9.6%) Total(million persons)

(39.8)

(19.8)

(20.0)

(6.7)

(6.7)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE YTD1. Assets TDI - Equity - Reinvestment of earnings

Thai portfolio investment - Equity security investment - Debt security investment

Loans Other investments - Trade credits - Deposits abroad

2. Liabilities FDI - Equity - Reinvestment of earnings

Foreign portfolio investment - Equity security investment - Debt security investment

Loans Other investments - Trade credits - Deposits abroad

Total financial flows (1+2)

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE YTDTrade Balance

Exports (f.o.b.)

%YoY

Imports (f.o.b.)

%YoY Net Services, Income & Transfers Current Account Capital and Financial Account Overall Balance

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

9

2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions

Total corporate financing continued to decrease compared with the previous month from business credits. New loans extended to private sector slightly increased from the previous month due to household loans. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in June 2020 and the NEER continued to appreciate compared with the previous month.

Commercial Bank Interest Rates*

End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya

Source: Bank of Thailand

% p.a.2019 2020

Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Jun 20 24 Jul 20

2-month deposit rate

Average of 5 largest Thai banks**

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MLR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MRR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

1.42

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.22

7.58

7.19

7.93

8.54

1.46

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.22

7.58

7.19

7.96

8.54

1.4

1.

1.1

6.28

7.22

7.58

7.79

8.54

1.33

1.51

1.11

6.08

7.19

7.59

7.73

8.44

0.75

1.26

0.84

5.93

7.13

7.41

.64

7.66

8.32

0.49

0.99

0.60

5.36

6.71

6.91

6.00

7.12

7.89

0.49

0.99

0.60

5.36

6.71

6.91

6.00

7.12

7.89

0.49

0.93

0.60

5.36

6.71

6.91

6.00

7.12

7.890.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

Jul-2

0

1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y

Government Bond Yields

Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA

As of 24 Jul 20

0.500.81

0.47

1.30

0.46

Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.

Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans

-1.4

-0.8

-0.2

0.4

1.0

1.6

2.2

2.8

-160-120-80-40

04080

120160200240280

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20Ap

r-20

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20Ap

r-20

MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)

BusinessHousehold

%

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Billion baht

Changes in Total Corporate Financing

-150-100-50

050

100150200

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

Jun 20P

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

10

5.0%

3.3%2.8%

2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%1.0% 1.0%

0.5% 0.4%

-0.1% -0.2%

-2.7%

1.0%

-0.9%

0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

1.2%0.6%

0.1%

1.0%0.9%

0.3%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

IDR EUR THB GBP KRW SGD MYR PHP TWD VND CNY INR JPY

Avg of Jun 20 compared to avg of May 20

Avg of Jul 20 compared to avg of Jun 20

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Exchange Rate Movement

July 2020(Average data

until 24 July 2020)

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132

29-D

ec-1

7

16-F

eb-1

8

5-Ap

r-18

28-M

ay-1

8

13-Ju

l-18

3-Se

p-18

19-O

ct-1

8

7-De

c-18

28-Ja

n-19

15-M

ar-1

9

8-M

ay-1

9

26-Ju

n-19

14-A

ug-1

9

30-S

ep-1

9

18-N

ov-1

9

8-Ja

n-20

25-F

eb-2

0

13-A

pr-2

0

2-Ju

n-20

21-Ju

l-20

NEER25

USDTHB (RHS)

Note: Monthly average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)

Appreciation

Jul 2 2 USDTHB = 31.69NEER25 = 121.16

As of 24 Jul 2020

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

% p.a.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

29-D

ec-1

730

-Jan-

1827

-Feb

-18

28-M

ar-1

830

-Apr

-18

30-M

ay-1

827

-Jun-

1825

-Jul-1

827

-Aug

-18

24-S

ep-1

824

-Oct

-18

21-N

ov-1

821

-Dec

-18

22-Ja

n-19

20-F

eb-1

920

-Mar

-19

22-A

pr-1

923

-May

-19

21-Ju

n-19

19-Ju

l-19

20-A

ug-1

917

-Sep

-19

16-O

ct-1

914

-Nov

-19

16-D

ec-1

915

-Jan-

2013

-Feb

-20

12-M

ar-2

010

-Apr

-20

13-M

ay-2

011

-Jun-

2010

-Jul-2

0

HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD

As of 24 Jul 2020

Regional Exchange Rate Volatility

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

11

2.5 Financial stability

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

OtherTransportationTradeHotel & TourismRestaurant & RecreationOther ManufacturingElectronicRubbers & PlasticsAutomotives

Lost Working Hours Index (Man-Month*) from the Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75**)

Man

-Mon

th (1

,000

Wor

kers-

Mon

th

Note: * Man-Month = Number of workers x ( Number of missing working days in a month / Number of days in a month)

** The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.

Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour, calculated by Bank of Thailand

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 25% of total jobless claims**

Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33

%, SA %, SA

Jobless Claims

Note: Employees who contribute to social security system (Section ) account for % of total employment.

** 2020, 6-month averageSource: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

Core inflation contribution%YoY

Jun-0.05%( ) Share in Core Inflation

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)

Headline inflation contribution%YoY

Jun-1.57%

( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

Headline inflation remained negative, although edging up from energy prices. Core inflation was slightly negative, consistent with weak domestic demand. Labor market remained vulnerable. External stability remained resilient, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

12

External Stability Indicators

Criteria 2019P2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE

Solvency Indicators Current Account / GDP (%) n.a.Debt / GDP (%) < / n.a.Debt / XGS1/ (%) < /

Debt Service Ratio (%) 8 n.a.Liquidity Indicators

Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time

Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times

ST Debt / Total Debt (%) Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)

Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

External Debt Outstanding

Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Billion USD 2019P 2019P 2020P Change Jun20-May20H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE

1. General government 2. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 4. Other Sectors

- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit

5. Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%)

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

13

3. Link to related statistics and contents

Agricultural sector

Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices

Agricultural production: Agricultural products

More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector

Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)

Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate

More information: Office of Industrial Economics http://www.oie.go.th/view/1/Home/EN-US

Real estate sector

Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)

More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/

Public finance

Central government revenue: Government revenue

Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)

Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)

More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market

Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)

Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)

Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)

More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

14

Inflation

Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)

More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th

Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index

Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report

Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic and Monetary Conditions, June 2020

15

Contact

Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637

Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650

Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300

Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096

Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647

Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639

Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877

The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147

External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726

Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186

Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090

Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645

Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636