https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx

Monetary Policy Group May 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions April 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

Content 1 Executive Summary 1

2 The Thai Economy 3

2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector

2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position

2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments

2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates

2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market External stability Stability and financial condition of corporate sector

3 Link to related statistics and contents 13

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

1

1. Executive Summary

In April 2020, the Thai economy further contracted. The tightening of COVID-19 containment measures in both Thailand and abroad temporarily disrupted several economic activities. The tourism sector substantially contracted due to Thailand’s inbound travel restriction measures. Merchandise exports excluding gold contracted at a higher rate, consistent with the decline in trading partner demand. Private consumption indicators highly contracted as a result of weakening purchasing power and the containment measures. Private investment indicators and manufacturing production continued to contract significantly following demand conditions and economic uncertainties. However, public spending continued to expand from both current and capital expenditures. In this month, the government began to transfer financial relief to those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak which would support the economy going forward.

On the stability front, headline inflation was more negative from energy prices as a result of falling global crude oil prices and the government’s electricity bill subsidy measure. Labor market was more vulnerable. The current account registered a deficit. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from the asset position.

Details of the economic conditions are as follows: The number of foreign tourist arrivals contracted by 100 percent from the same period last year,

with none of foreign tourist arrivals in this month after the implementation of Thailand’s inbound travel restriction measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Consequently, tourism-related businesses, especially hotel and restaurant as well as passenger transportation, were affected substantially.

The value of merchandise exports contracted by 3.3 percent from the same period last year. Excluding a historical value of gold, exports value highly contracted at 15.9 percent. This was due to the high contraction in exports of automotive and parts, petroleum-related products, electrical appliances and machinery and equipment, consistent with the substantial decline in trading partner demand and global crude oil prices. However, exports of some products expanded such as electronic products, agro-anufacturing products and agricultural products, due to the benefit during the period of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Private consumption indicators highly contracted from the same period last year in all spending categories. This was a consequence of weakening supporting factors including employment, income and consumer confidence, coupled with the holidays postponement during the Songkran festival and lockdown measures taken to contain the escalation of the COVID-19 outbreak. In this month, however, the government began to transfer financial relief to those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Manufacturing production further contracted in line with weakening domestic and external demand.

Private investment indicators continued to contract significantly from the same period last year, from the high contraction of investment in machinery and equipment in all components. As a result of weak domestic and external demand which deteriorated business profit and sentiment, together with high excess production capacity, businesses decided to delay their investment plan.

The value of merchandise imports sharply contracted by 17.0 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, imports value contracted at 13.8 percent. The contraction was from all categories including raw materials and intermediate goods, capital goods and consumer goods, consistent with softer economic activities.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

2

Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand from the same period last year both in current and capital expenditures. Current expenditures expanded from purchases on goods and services, especially expenditures for the COVID-19 containment purpose. Meanwhile, capital expenditures expanded from the disbursement of both the central government and state enterprise.

Overall economic stability remained sound, though more vulnerable. Headline inflation was more negative from energy prices as a result of falling global crude oil prices and the government’s electricity bill subsidy measure. Meanwhile, core inflation remained positive but continued to decline consistent with weakening domestic demand. Labor market was more vulnerable as reflected by the increase in the number of jobless claims on the social security system. The current account registered a deficit mainly from income balance due to dividend payout by corporate sector, coupled with the significant drop in travel receipts. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from the asset position.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

3

2.1 Supply

Farm income contracted at a higher rate from the same period last year, due to a significant drop in agricultural outputs affected by the drought and the deceleration in agricultural prices. Manufacturing production further contracted, consistent with weak domestic and external demand. Service sector contracted at a higher rate as a result of the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak and the containment measures.

Farm Income(%YoY) 2 1 2 1 2 2

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr

Nominal farm incomeP 1.2 1. 1.1 . . 1.8 1. -10.1

Agricultural productionP -0.7 . 1. 1. . -6.5 . -13.2

Agricultural price

1.9 . 2. 2. . 8.8 . .

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

60708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share2016R 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP %MoM sa

Food & Beverages 1 . . . 1. 1.2 2. 11. 1 . . . Automotives 1 . . 2.1 12. . 2 . 1 . 2 . . 1. - Passenger Cars . . . 1 . . 2 . 1 . 22.1 2. .2- Commercial Vehicles .2 . 2. 1 . . 21. 1 . 2 . .1 .1- Engine 1. . . 1 .2 . 1 . 1 . 21.2 . . Petroleum . . .2 11. . 1 .2 . . 1 . 11. Chemicals .2 .2 . 1.1 1. . .2 1. . .1Rubbers & Plastics . .2 . . . . . . . 2. Cement & Construction . 1.2 .2 2. . 1. 1.2 2.1 . 11. IC & Semiconductors . . .1 . 12.2 .1 . . 1 . 2. Electrical Appliances . . . . 1. . . . 1. 1. Textiles & Apparels . .2 . . . 1 . . 1 . 1 .2 1. Hard Disk Drive . . 1 . . . . . 1 .2 . 1 . Others 1 . . . . .2 .1 . . . 1. MPI 1 . . 1. . .2 . . 1 . 1 .2 . MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

1 . 2. .1 1. 2. . .1 .

Capacity Utilization (SA) . . . . . .1 2.1 .

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

MPI Classified by Export Share

455565758595

105115125

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

-0.1 %

-43.4 %

-0.7 %

%MoM sa

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

** Index of work hours in manufacturing is not available from April to June 2020

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

%MoM sa

-8.7 %

-10.9 %

Mar = -1.1 %**

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

(%)Share2016R

2019 2020

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP

Food & Beverages 1 . . . . . . .2 .

Automotives 1 . . . . 1.2 . . 1 .1

Petroleum . .1 2. . . . 2. .

Chemicals .2 . . . . .2 . 1.

Rubbers & Plastics . . . . . . . .

Cement & Construction . . . . . .2 . .

IC & Semiconductors . . . . 1.1 . . 2.2

Electrical Appliances . . 1. . . 2. 1.2 .

Textiles & Apparels . . . . 2. . . .

Hard Disk Drive . . .2 2. 1. 1. 2. .

Others 1 . . . . .1 . 2. .

CAPU sa 1 . . . . . .1 2.1 .

Capacity Utilization (sa)

Source: Office of Industrial Economics

Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

4

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)

Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Transport (8%) Information (5%)Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Hotel & Restaurant (10%) Professional Services (4%)

Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

5

2.2 Domestic Demand

% YoY 2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -1.2 -6.5 -6.2 -6.9 -2.1 -1.8 1.1 1.3

Construction Materials Index 1.4 -2.6 -3.4 -1.9 -0.3 -1.1 17.0 15.7

Real Imports of Capital Goods 0.1 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -9.2 -10.9 -17.5 -3.8

Real Domestic Machinery Sales -3.8 -7.2 -5.6 -8.8 -0.4 -4.3 -4.5 -3.5

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 2.4 -8.7 -2.5 -15.4 -11.7 -8.0 -25.4 -9.8

Private Investment Index -1.2 -4.0 -2.7 -5.2 -6.8 -8.7 -6.1 1.9

Private Investment Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

30405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

406080100120140160180

8090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Source: Bank of Thailand

%YoY 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1P Mar AprP %MoM sa

Non-durables index 3 3.1 4 6 1.1 1.1 2 -11.7 -11.8Semi-durables index 1 7 8 -2.2 -4.2 -6.9 -1.9Durables index -12.0 22.0 37.5 -23.7Services index 3.0 1 1 -11.0 -25.0 -31.9 -8.4

less Net tourist spending 2 -41.0 -77.1 89.0 -58.6

PCI 5 4 6 3 1.9 1.0 -2.7 -15.1 -8.6

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Private consumption indicators contracted substantially from all spending categories. Private investment indicators continued to deteriorate considerably, consistent with weak domestic and external demand. However, public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand.

90100110120130140150160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. alcohol and tobacco sa, 3mma

Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

6

60

110

160

210

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

Apr7.9%

Apr28.9%

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

Source : Bank of Thailand

Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)

30

40

50

60

Jan 2014

Jul Jan 2015

Jul Jan 2016

Jul Jan 2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)

Jul 20 37.8

Apr 20

Business Sentiment Index

Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

70

90

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

Apr14.1%

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019

FY2019 FY2020Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Feb Mar Apr

Revenue 2,513 2,538 615 551 777 595 648 539 165 175 149(%YoY) (6.8) (1.0) (12.8) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.3) (5.4) (-2.1) (-3.2) (1.2) (-21.4)Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 924 719 654 679 796 758 186 356 337(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (-2.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (5.4) (-6.9) (58.0) (28.5)Budgetary B/L -368 -437 -309 -168 124 -83 -148 -219 -21 -180 -188Non-Budgetary B/L -28 127 -28 -21 123 53 -125 -17 -2 -25 -13Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -337 -190 247 -30 -273 -236 -23 -205 -201Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -274 -178 313 -20 -207 -227 -23 -200 -198Net Financing 506 190 84 99 -38 45 76 111 28 54 162Treasury B/L 633 513 380 289 497 513 316 872 342 191 152

60

110

160

210

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

Apr7.9%

Apr28.9%

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

7

2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

US Euro Area* (Mar) Japan (Mar)

G3 Retail Sales

Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg

Index (Jan 2015 = 100)

Apr 20

The current account registered a deficit mainly from the income balance due to dividend payout by corporate sector, coupled with a deficit in service balance due to the significant drop in travel receipts. Meanwhile, the capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from the asset position.

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PHINDO

MY

THTWCN

SGKR

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprApr

(%MoM)

Agriculture . . -3.6 -13.4 -8.9 -17.8 . . . . Fishery . . -12.0 -1.2 -2.9 0.5 . . . . Manufacturing . . -3.5 -4.2 -4.9 -3.5 . .2 2. .

Agro-manufacturing 2. . -2.3 2.2 -0.7 5.2 . . . 2. Electronics .2 . -10.4 -2.7 -6.0 0.8 . . . . Electrical

Appliances . . -1.3 4.3 2.8 5.9 . 2. . .

Automotive . . -3.2 -3.3 -0.5 -6.3 .2 2 .2 . 2. Machinery & Equipment . . -4.8 -7.7 -7.2 -8.2 . . . 2.

Petroleum Related . . -10.5 -19.3 -17.9 -20.7 . . 2 . . Total (BOP Basis) . .2 -4.0 -2.5 -0.0 -4.9 . 2.2 . .2

Ex. Gold . -4.9 -4.7 -4.8 -4.7 . . . . Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related . -4.1 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 2.2 . . .

Export Value Apr 2020 = 17.9 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 15.4 Bn USD

Mar 2020 = 20.9 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 19.6 Bn USD

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprApr

(%MoM)

Consumer . 2. 0.9 4.3 8.9 0.1 . . . .2Raw material & Intermediate . . -3.3 -10.3 -7.0 -13.6 . . . .

o/w Fuel . .2 -1.2 -20.0 -11.5 -28.2 . . 2 . . o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel . . -4.1 -6.1 -5.1 -7.2 2. . . .

Capital 2 . 2. -7.1 3.0 4.1 2.0 . . . 2.

Others . . 6.5 -15.8 -29.3 3.8 . . . .

Total (BOP Basis) . . -3.5 -7.2 -6.8 -7.6 . . . .

Ex. Gold . -2.4 -5.5 -2.6 -8.3 . . . 2.

Ex.Gold&Fuel 2. -2.6 -2.0 -0.5 -3.6 2. . . . %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueApr 2020 = 15.3 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 15.3 Bn USD

Mar 2020 = 18.6 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 17.6 Bn USD

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

8

Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE YTD1. Assets 2 2 TDI 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2 2

Thai portfolio investment 2 22 2 - Equity security investment 2 - Debt security investment 2 2 2 2

Loans 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2

2. Liabilities 2 2 2 2 FDI 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2

Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 22 2 - Equity security investment 2 2 2 - Debt security investment 2 2 2 2 2

Loans 2 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2 2 2

Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2 2 2 2

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE YTD

Trade Balance 2 . 2. . . . . 2. 2. .

Exports (f.o.b.) 2 . 2 . 22. . .2 . 2 . . .

%YoY .2 . 2. . . . 2.2 . .

Imports (f.o.b.) 2 . . . . .2 2. . . .

%YoY . . .2 . . . . . .

Net Services, Income & Transfers . .2 . . . . . .2 .

Current Account . . 2 . . . . . . .

Capital and Financial Account 2. . . . . . . . .

Overall Balance . . . . . . . . 2.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

%YoY (Share in 2019)

20192019 2020

%MoMsaH1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP

China (27.6%) . . . . . . .2 . .

Malaysia (10.5%) . . . . .2 2. .2 . .

Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)

. . . . . . . . .

Russia (3.7%) . . . 2. . . . . .

Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)

. . . 2. . . . . .

India (5.0%) 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . . . . .

Others (9.6%) . . . . 2. .2 . . . Total(million persons)

.2 (39.8)

. (19.8)

. (20.0)

.2 .

. (10.3)

. (6.7)

. (0.8)

. (0.0)

.0

Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

9

2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions

Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.

Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

-120-80-40

04080

120160200240280

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20

MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)

BusinessHousehold

%

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Billion baht

Changes in Total Corporate Financing

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

Apr 20P

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y

Government Bond Yields

Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA

As of 25 May 20

0.50

0.740.54

1.13

0.45

Commercial Bank Interest Rates*% p.a. Q1/19 Q2/19 Q /19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Apr 20 25 May 20

-month deposit rate

Average of 5 largest Thai banks**

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MLR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MRR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

1.42

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.47

8.54

1.46

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.50

8.54

1.4

1.

1.1

6.28

7.31

7.58

8.

8.54

1.33

1.51

1.11

6.08

7.31

7.59

8.

8.44

0.75

1.26

0.84

5.93

7.22

7.41

6.64

8.24

8.32

0.75

1.21

0.71

5.53

6.77

6.98

6.24

7.25

7.98

0.61

1.14

0.74

5.36

6.75

6.91

6.00

7.22

7.89

End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya

Source: Bank of Thailand

Total corporate financing continued to increase from the previous month, due to an increase in business credits which mostly used for working capital purpose. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in April 2020 and the NEER depreciated from the previous month.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

10

-2.7% -2.2%-1.7% -1.6% -1.2% -0.7%

-0.5% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% 0.3%

0.4% 0.7%

5.6%

0.7%-0.1%

1.7%0.2%

-0.4%0.6% 0.3% -0.5%

0.5% 0.4%

-1.2%0.2%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

IDR INR EUR THB MYR CNY VND SGD KRW JPY TWD GBP PHP

Avg of Apr 20 compared to avg of Mar 20

Avg of May 20 compared to avg of Apr 20

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Exchange Rate Movement

May 2020(Average data

until 25 May 2020)

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

% p.a.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

29-D

ec-1

730

-Jan-

1827

-Feb

-18

28-M

ar-1

830

-Apr

-18

30-M

ay-1

827

-Jun-

1825

-Jul-1

827

-Aug

-18

24-S

ep-1

824

-Oct

-18

21-N

ov-1

821

-Dec

-18

22-Ja

n-19

20-F

eb-1

920

-Mar

-19

22-A

pr-1

923

-May

-19

21-Ju

n-19

19-Ju

l-19

20-A

ug-1

917

-Sep

-19

16-O

ct-1

914

-Nov

-19

16-D

ec-1

915

-Jan-

2013

-Feb

-20

12-M

ar-2

010

-Apr

-20

13-M

ay-2

0

HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD

As of 25 May 2020

Regional Exchange Rate Volatility

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132

29-D

ec-1

7

16-F

eb-1

8

5-Ap

r-18

28-M

ay-1

8

13-Ju

l-18

3-Se

p-18

19-O

ct-1

8

7-De

c-18

28-Ja

n-19

15-M

ar-1

9

8-M

ay-1

9

26-Ju

n-19

14-A

ug-1

9

30-S

ep-1

9

18-N

ov-1

9

8-Ja

n-20

25-F

eb-2

0

13-A

pr-2

0

NEER25

USDTHB (RHS)

Note: Monthly average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)

Appreciation

May USDTHB = 32.07NEER25 = 122.48

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

11

2.5 Financial stability

The Number of Firms and Employees Registered for the Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75)

Note: The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.

Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour

33,465 42,051 40,102 22,842 39,30392,264

465,218

Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20

Firms Employees

114 163 161 113 153445

2,406

Headline inflation was more negative mainly from energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation remained positive but continued to be on a downward trend in line with weaker domestic demand. Labor market was more vulnerable. External stability remained resilient, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)

Headline inflation contribution%YoY

Apr-2.99%

( ) Share in Headline Inflation 0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

Core inflation contribution%YoY

Apr0.41%

( ) Share in Core Inflation

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 16% of total jobless claims

Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33 %, SA %, SA

Jobless Claims

Note: Employees who contribute to social security system (Section ) account for % of total employment.

Source: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

12

-2.0

-1.0

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63 Q

1/61

Q3/

61 Q

1/62

Q3/

62 Q

1/63

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63 Q

1/61

Q3/

61 Q

1/62

Q3/

62 Q

1/63

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63 Q

1/61

Q3/

61 Q

1/62

Q3/

62 Q

1/63

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63 Q

1/61

Q3/

61 Q

1/62

Q3/

62 Q

1/63

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63

Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Telecom Transport Overall

OPM (sa) RoA (sa, RHS)Percentage Percentage

Return on Assets and Operating Profit Margin by Sectors

Note: ROA and OPM are calculated using sum by sum method with seasonal adjustment. *Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical.

Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63 Q

1/61

Q3/

61 Q

1/61

Q3/

62 Q

1/63

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63 Q

1/61

Q3/

61 Q

1/62

Q3/

62 Q

1/63

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63 Q

1/61

Q3/

61 Q

1/62

Q3/

62 Q

1/63

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63 Q

1/61

Q3/

61 Q

1/62

Q3/

62 Q

1/63

Q1/

61 Q

3/61

Q1/

62 Q

3/62

Q1/

63

Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Telecom Transport Overall

ICR Times

Note: ICR is calculated using sum by sum method.*Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical.

Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand

Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) by Sectors

External Stability Indicators

Criteria 2019P2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE

Solvency Indicators

Current Account / GDP (%)

Debt / GDP (%) < /

Debt / XGS1/ (%) < /

Debt Service Ratio (%) 6.8 6.7 0 7.5

Liquidity Indicators

Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time

Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times

ST Debt / Total Debt (%)

Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)

Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

External Debt Outstanding

Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Billion USD 2019P 2019P 2020P Change Apr20-Mar20H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE

1. General government 2. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 4. Other Sectors

- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit

5. Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%)

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

13

3. Link to related statistics and contents

Agricultural sector

Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices

Agricultural production: Agricultural products

More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th

Manufacturing sector

Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)

Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate

More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th

Real estate sector

Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)

More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance

Central government revenue: Government revenue

Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)

Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)

More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th

Labor market

Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)

Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)

Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)

More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

14

Inflation

Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)

More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th

Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index

Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report

Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020

15

Contact

Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637

Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650

Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300

Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096

Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647

Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639

Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877

The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147

External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726

Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186

Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090

Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645

Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636