Economía y Finanzas del Agua

Mercados de Agua en la Gestión Integrada del Agua

Escasez y Sequía en España y los Nuevos Retos de la Directiva

Marco del Agua

Water scarcity, droughts and climate change in Spain

Teodoro Estrela

Zaragoza, 31 julio 2008

Water scarcity

Water scarcity in European Union

Current water availability

Source: European Environment Agency, 2005 Water exploitation index (expected for 2030)

Water scarcity in Spain

• Water scarcity means that water demands exceeds the available water resources under sustainable conditions

• Water is a scarce resource in some areas of Spain

– High irregularity in time and space

– Limited water resource: conflicting

water demands

 

   

 

Precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and runoff in

Spain in mm (period 1940-2005)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

mm

/añ

o

Precipitación (mm)

Evapotranspiración real (mm)

Escorrentía (mm)

Irregular hydrological regimes in Spain

Mean annual precipitation (mm)

Mean annual runoff (mm)

Water consumption index: water consumption / potential water resource

<0,5 Low use

0,5-1 Circumstantial water stress

>1 Structural water stress

Water stress

Measures to fight water scarcity

Main measures to fight water scarcity in Spain:

• Development of water supply infrastructures • Metering programmes of water abstractions

• Water savings and water-efficient technologies

• Joint management of surface water and groundwater

• Use of non-conventional water resources: waste water reuse and desalination

Public water supplyWater

Country City consu mption

Bélgica Bruselas 112l/pers/d

España Barcelona 119ay

España Cop h gValeennciaa 121 Dinamarca ue 123

España Madrid 124 España Sevilla 137

Grecia Heraclión 139 Portugal Lisboa 144 Hungría Budapest 146 Austria AmsterdaViena 147

Holanda m 149 Italia Roma 150

Chipre Nicosia 166 Finlandia Helsinki 170

Suecia Estocolmo 190 Noruega Oslo 200

Suiza Berna 250

l/p

ers

on

.da

y

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

160 6,0

Population

Household consumption 5,5

5,0

4,5

4,0

Mill

ion

s in

ha

b.

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

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95

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96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

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02

20

03

20

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05

20

06

Water consumption in Barcelona (l /person . day)

Domestic water consumption in different European cities (l /person . day)

Droughts

Droughts

Drought management in Spain: traditionally as an emergency situation

Spanish Water Law (TRLA), in article 58, foresees in extraordinary drought situation the adoption, by the Government, of necessary measures to overcome these situations, related to the use of the public water domain.

Policy bases for Drought Management Plans

Law 10/2001, July 5, of the Hydrological Water Plan, bases for the drought planned management.

establishes the

Article 27. Drought management

Section 1. The Ministry of Environment, for dependent river basins, in order to minimize environmental, economic and social impacts of eventual drought situations, will establish a global hydrologic indicator system that will allow foreseeing these situations, and will serve as general reference for river basin authorities for the formal declaration of emergency situations and eventual drought. This declaration will imply the entry into force of Drought Management Plans (DMP).

Section 2. Basin Organizations will develop Drought Management Plans (DMP) for alert situations and eventual drought (exploitation rules and measures)

Global hydrological indicator system

• Global hydrological indicator system has been developed

• Drought maps being developed since December 2005 and published in the web page of Spanish Ministry of Environment, Rural and Marine Affairs.

march 2008 june 2008

Example of measure included in DMPs: Drought wells and environmental control (specific groundwater level network)

Droughts: “Albufera Lake” Ramsar wetland

Albufera Lake

Júcar river

Climate change

reseen for 2071-21

EC Green Paper. A2 scenarios. Climatic changes fo 00

Impact of Climate Change

Change in mean annual temperature and precipitation

Climate Change

• Preliminary assessment reports on climate change impacts in Spain:

– Decrease in water resources mean values are expected.

» For a decrease of 5% in mean annual precipitation and an increase of 1ºC in mean annual temperature, a decrease between 9 and 25% in runoff is expected depending on the river basin districts.

– Increase in water resource variability is expected.

– The most critical Spanish areas are arid and semiarid ones where water scarcity and drought problems are greater.

Impact on water resources and vulnerability in Spain

Impact on runoff reduction for a decrease Vulnerability: water scarcity risk in water of 5% in mean annual precipitation and an resource systems increase of 1ºC in mean annual

temperature (year 2030)

Source: White Paper on Water in Spain, MMA (2000)

Climate Change and Water resources in Spain

• National Adaptation Plan on Climate Change. Aim: Integration of adaptation to climate change into the planning strategy of the different socio-economic sectors in Spain

• Water resources sector: assessment of impacts on natural resources, water demands, available resources and ecological status

) 

  

Prec ipitaciones

0

50

1 00

1 50

2 00

2 50

3 00

3 50

4 00

4 50

5 00

5 50

6 00

6 50

7 00

7 50

8 00

19

61

19

66

19

71

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

20

11

20

16

20

21

20

26

20

31

20

36

20

41

20

46

20

51

20

56

20

61

20

66

20

71

20

76

20

81

20

86

20

91

20

96

Pr

ec

ip it

a c

ió n

to

ta l

a n

ua

l (

mm

ECHAM4 Model. Escenario A2

Precipitations

1961-1990

2011-2040

2041-2070

2071-2100

m)

   

  

  

ETP. ECHAM4. A2

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

19

61

19

66

19

71

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

20

11

20

16

20

21

20

26

20

31

20

36

20

41

20

46

20

51

20

56

20

61

20

66

20

71

20

76

20

81

20

86

20

91

20

96

Ev

apo

transp

ira

ció

n p

ote

ncia

l to

tal

an

ua

l (m

ECHAM4 Model. Escenario A2

Potential evapotranspiration

1961-1990

2011-2040

2041-2070

2071-2100

)

     

  

 

Escorrentía Budyko. EC HAM4. A2

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1 9

61

1 9

66

1 9

71

1 9

76

1 9

81

1 9

86

1 9

91

1 9

96

2 0

01

2 0

06

2 0

11

2 0

16

2 0

21

2 0

26

2 0

31

2 0

36

2 0

41

2 0

46

2 0

51

2 0

56

2 0

61

2 0

66

2 0

71

2 0

76

2 0

81

2 0

86

2 0

91

2 0

96

Escorren

tía

t o

tal

an

ua

l (m

m

Runoff

ECHAM4 Model. Escenario A2

1961-1990

2011-2040

2041-2070

2071-2100

ECHAM4 model results

PRE ETP AES PRE ETP AES 1961-1990 563 1118 80 563 1118 80 2011-2040 500 1189 50 505 1191 52 2041-2070 471 1263 34 497 1246 44 2071-2100 463 1364 27 492 1291 39

1961-1990 - - - - - -

2011-2040 -11% 6% -38% -10% 7% -36% 2041-2070 -16% 13% -57% -12% 12% -46% 2071-2100 -18% 22% -66% -13% 16% -52%

Escenarios A2 y B2

)

m)

) )

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96

Pre cipitació n

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800

850 6

1

66

71

76

81

86

91

96

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41

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51

56

61

66

71

76

81

86

91

96

Pre

cip

itac

ión

to

tal

an

ua

l (m

m

ECHAM4A2

CGCM2A 2

HadleyA 2

ETP

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

61

66

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81

86

91

96

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41

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51

56

61

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71

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81

86

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Ev

ap

otr

an

spir

aci

ón

po

ten

cia

l to

tal

an

ual

(m

ECHAM4A2

CGCM2A2

HadleyA2

Escorrentía Budyko. Ava nce trabajos

0

25

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250

275

1 9

6 1

1 9

6 6

1 9

7 1

1 9

7 6

1 9

8 1

1 9

8 6

1 9

9 1

1 9

9 6

2 0

0 1

2 0

0 6

2 0

1 1

2 0

1 6

2 0

2 1

2 0

2 6

2 0

3 1

2 0

3 6

2 0

4 1

2 0

4 6

2 0

5 1

2 0

5 6

2 0

6 1

2 0

6 6

2 0

7 1

2 0

7 6

2 0

8 1

2 0

8 6

2 0

9 1

2 0

9 6

Es

corr

en

tía

to

tal

an

ua

l (m

m

ECHAM4A 2

CGCM 2A 2

HadleyA2

E scorrentía Budyko. Av ance trabajos

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

196

1 1

966

197

1 1

976

198

1 1

986

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1 1

996

200

1 2

006

201

1 2

016

202

1 2

026

203

1 2

036

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1 2

046

205

1 2

056

206

1 2

066

207

1 2

076

208

1 2

086

209

1 2

096

Esco

rre

ntí

a t

ota

l an

ua

l (m

m

ECHAM4B2

CGCM 2B2

HadleyB2

ECHAM4, CGCM2 and Hadley model results

Regulation in Spain

– First River Basin Planning cycle (year 2009): a Climate-Check of Programme of Measures will be carried out in EU Member States.

– Royal Decree, RD 907/2007 regarding River Basin Management Plan Regulations was approved in July 2007

– Mandatory to consider the effects of climate change on water resources in the development of plans