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Transcript of Ecological Economics of Energy: The Potential for a Transition to Renewables CANUSSEE Conference...
Ecological Economics of Energy:
The Potential for a Transition to Renewables
CANUSSEE Conference 2015, Vancouver, Canada
Jonathan M. Harris
http://ase.tufts.edu/gdaeCopyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris
Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change?
• Long-term link between economic growth and carbon emissions
• Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon emissions
• Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions determine speed of transition
• Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both?
Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013)
Availability of Global Renewable Energy
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration; Stanford Engineering News, http://engineering.stanford.edu/news/wind-could-meet-many-times-world-total-power-demand-2030-researchers-say
Energy SourceTotal Global
Availability (trillion watts)
Availability in Likely-Developable Locations
(trillion watts)Wind 1700 40 – 85
Wave > 2.7 0.5
Geothermal 45 0.07 – 0.14
Hydroelectric 1.9 1.6
Tidal 3.7 0.02
Solar photovoltaic 6500 340
Concentrated solar power 4600 240
Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts
Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).
Energy SourcePercent of 2030 Global Power
Supply
Number of Plants/Devices Needed
WorldwideWind turbines 50 3,800,000
Wave power plants 1 720,000
Geothermal plants 4 5,350
Hydroelectric plants 4 900
Tidal turbines 1 490,000
Rooftop solar PV systems 6 1.7 billion
Solar PV power plants 14 40,000
Concentrated solar power plants
20 49,000
TOTAL 100
Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area. (Can be combined with agricultural uses)
Global Potential for Energy Efficiency
Source: Blok et al. (2008) Global status report on energy efficiency 2008. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnerships. www.reeep.org
Source: International Energy Agency, 2011.
Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source
Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations (2003-2012)
Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
Nuclear
Coal
Gas combined cycle
Hydroelectric
Wind-offshore
Wind-onshore
Solar thermal electricity
Solar PV, utility scale
$/MWh
Levelized Cost of Electricity for New Generation
EIA Lazard
Sources: http://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-v8-abstract/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Wind
Photovoltaics
Hydropower
Biomass
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Eurocents per kilowatt-hour
Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods, European Union
Source: Owen, A. D. 2006. "Renewable energy: externality costs as market barriers." Energy Policy 34: 632-642.
Solar Energy Price Decreases, 1998-2013
Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth. 2014. Tracking the Sun VII: an historical summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2013. SunShot Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy
Projected further decreases in solar costs, 2015 - 2040
Source: Feldman et al 2014. Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf
Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, 2014. “Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review”. http://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/Q4%202014%20SMI%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf
Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies, 1991-2008
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011.
Ene
rgy
Inte
nsity
- Btu
per
Yea
r 200
5 U
.S. D
olla
rs (1
991
base
yea
r)
Year
Source: EIA 2013.Source: EIA 2012.
90 unitscarbon-based
100 units carbon-based
2015 2035
Renewables 10 units
Renewables 20 units
100 units total
120 units total~1% p.a. growth in energy demand
Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris
Business as Usual Scenario
90 unitscarbon-based 60 units
carbon-based
2015 2035
10 units
Renewables 20 units
100 units total
80 units total
~1% p.a. decline in energy demand
Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris
Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no loss in employment (probably a gain)
Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario
Source: US Department of Energy, 2013ACCESSED AT: http://www.eia.doe.gov
Decline since 2007: 12%
Reduction in population growth rates and in GDP growth rates could accentuate this trend, and will be necessary to meet carbon targets, but there is a lot of scope for energy and carbon intensity reduction.
Although 2012 was unusual, it shows the pattern of declining emissions: growth in population and per capita output were outweighed by decreases in energy intensity (energy use per dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy use).
CARBON INTENSITY
PERCENT CHANGES IN EMISSIONS DRIVERS, 2012
ENERGY INTENSITY
PER CAPITA OUTPUT
POPULATION
percent change
A good trend, but needs continuing….
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - 2013ARRA2009 denotes the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
Public Energy R&D Investment
Source: International Energy Agency, 2014.
Policies for the Renewable Energy Transition
• Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies• Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon • Energy research and development• Feed-in tariffs• Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan
terms• Renewable energy targets• Efficiency standards and labelling• Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs