ECODRIVE

Ecosystem Change in the North Sea:

Processes, Drivers, Future Scenarios

2009 – 2012

Overarching Theme

Impact of Climate

NAO+ NAO-

NAO-Index

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Te

mp

era

ture

[°C

]

- 3

- 2

- 1

0

1

2

3

4

NA

O w

inte

r in

dex

(Ja

n-F

eb

)

NAO winter index, annnual temperature minimum in the Intermediate Winter Water (IWW) of the Bornholm Basin, Station K2, (solid line) and annual SST anomalies at Helgoland Roads (dashed line) Alheit et al. 2005

NAO winter index

North Sea

Baltic Sea

Central North Sea, anomalies: SST, phytoplankton colour, dinoflagellates, diatoms

Edwards and Johns 2006

North Sea

Regime Shift Nordsee

Edwards et al., SAHFOS Techn. Rep. (in press) CPR data

AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Kerr,

Science, 2005

Surface air temperature anomalies

(Johannessen et al. 2004)

Relative SST anomalies, plotted as five-year averages from 1910 to 2005. ICES Zooplankton Status Report 2006/07 (O’Brien et al. 2008)

Decadal changes in distributions of Northeast Atlantic calanoid copepods, based on rate of occurrence in CPR samples. Beaugrand (2005).

Anchovy catch rates courtesy D. Reid

1990 1995 2004

Fischereiwelt (1950)

Helgoländer Meeresunters. 4 (1953)

Sardine egg abundance, Engl. Channel (Hawkins et al. 2002)

0

4

8

12

16

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

SS

B (

mil

l. t

on

s)

to C

Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian spring-spawning herring and the longterm-averaged temperature (the AMO signal)

(Toresen og Østvedt 2000)

Stock collapse caused by

overfishing under a cooling climate

Start of the new herring period after 17 years of fishing

moratorium and the formation of the outstanding 1983 year class

Long-term averaged temperature

AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)

(Kerr, Science 2005)

What is impact of interactions of NAO, AMO and Global Warming on marine ecosystems?

Four winter climate regimes in SLP

(Hurrell and Deser, in press)

ECODRIVE

Methods

► Field sampling

► Retrospective time series analysis● Continuous Plankton Recorder

● Helgoland Roads Series

► Modeling

Focus on Climate

► Impact of climate variability

● North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)● Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

► Impact of Global Warming

Hering

Clupea harengus

Sprotte

Sprattus sprattus

Sardine

Sardina pilchardus

Sardelle (Anchovis)

Engraulis enchrasicolus

Time Series(field data)

Ecophysiology(abiotic)

TrophicCoupling

(biotic)

Hydro-Climate

(physics)

MSVPA ( Tertiary

Exchange )

System Description (WP1)

System Modelling (WP2)

(WP3)Past / Present

Responses

In this conceptual diagram, EVERYTHING is inter-related. The colors denote interactions.

Approach discussed at IHF. Mike sees „stoplight“ approach – as an important visualization of ecosystem state (past, present & future). The approach shown can be used for „everything, or all ecosystem components“ or just selected key species... The latter might be better, but selling both is likely worthwhile.

WP1 compiles information on field data and basic species-specific interactions (trophic coupling between key species) and includes basic ecophysiology (abiotic controls on species groups, etc). Basically, this is a WP where we assemble what is known. Additional cruises (proposed field data collection) can be added here.

Knowledge from WP1 is then combined with modelling efforts in WP2 that produce time series (red + blue = purple). WP2 delivers time series (e.g., stratification, temperature, turbulence – physical factors that influence biology). The informed proxies come out of this retrospective analysis (WP1 & Wp2) along with model improvement (NPZD groups better defined based upon work from WP1. Yellow chosen here as the third primary color.

The combination of yellow & blue = green (future scenarios). Drivers like eutrophication and exploitation levels/patterns should be included. Regional downscaling based on IPCC scenarios can be used to run hydrodynamics models... That drive future change based upon work in WP4.

The big circle is project intergration WP (6)....

(WP6)projectintegration

(WP4)InformedProxies

(WP5)Future

Senarios

NPZD( phyto-Zoopl )

3.0 4.0 5 .0 6.0 7.0 8 .0 9 .0

Longitude [deg E ]

Tem perature [°C ]

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.5

55.0

Latit

ude

[deg

N]

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

15.5

3.0 4.0 5 .0 6.0 7.0 8 .0 9 .0

Longitude [deg E ]

Tem perature [°C ]

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.5

55.0

Latit

ude

[deg

N]

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

15.5

3.0 4.0 5 .0 6.0 7.0 8 .0 9 .0

Longitude [deg E ]

Tem perature [°C ]

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.5

55.0

Latit

ude

[deg

N]

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

15.5

5 10 50 100500

1 5 1050

Sprat

Sardine

Sardelle

Egg and larvae distribution of anchovies and sardines in German Bight

1951 2003

Smoother & confidence interval

Smoother Upper limit Low er limit

1999199719951993199119891987198519831981

3

2

1

Smoother & confidence interval

Smoother Upper limit Low er limit

1999199719951993199119891987198519831981

3

2

1

Acartia

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

biom

ass

anom

aly

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Temora

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

biom

ass

anom

aly

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Sprat

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

biom

ass

anom

aly

-1.5e+6

-1.0e+6

-5.0e+5

0.0

5.0e+5

1.0e+6

1.5e+6

2.0e+6

Diatoms Dinoflagellates

Regime Shift Baltic Sea

Wasmund and Uhlig 2003

Changes on 3 trophic levels:

- phytoplankton

- zooplankton

- fish

Alheit et al. 2005