EC Tier 1 uncertainty analysisEC Tier 1 uncertainty analysis

Uncertainty workshop

Bernd Gugele, ETC-ACC

5 September 2005

2

Availability of Table 6.1 of the Tier 1 Availability of Table 6.1 of the Tier 1 uncertainty analysis as of 15 April 2005uncertainty analysis as of 15 April 2005

Member State Year Coverage Member State Year Coverage

Austria 2003 96% Ireland 2003 100%

Belgium 2001 99% Italy 2002 100%

Denmark 2002 92% Netherlands 2002 100%

Finland 2002 97% Spain 2002 100%

France 2002 100% Sweden 2003 100%

Germany 2003 100% United Kingdom

2002 100%

Greece 2002 100%

For 13 MS Tier 1 uncertainty estimates availableFour MS 2003, eight MS 2002, one MS 2001Most MS cover all source categories (except for LUCF)

95 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions in 2003 are covered

3

Uncertainty analysis: approachUncertainty analysis: approach (1) (1)

• MS uncertainty estimates were grouped by source categories

• Level of detail varies between MS– 1A (stationary), 1A1 or 1A1a– split by fuels or not– 2001/2002 used because more detailed fuel split MS Gas

AT 1A1a-CO2 1 A 1 a liquid Public Electricity and Heat Production CO2

AT 1A1a-CO2 1 A 1 a other Public Electricity and Heat Production CO2

AT 1A1a-CO2 1 A 1 a solid Public Electricity and Heat Production CO2

BE 1A1a-CO2 1.A.1.a 1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Gaseous Fuels CO2

BE 1A1a-CO2 1.A.1.a 1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Liquid Fuels CO2

BE 1A1a-CO2 1.A.1.a 1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Other Fuels CO2

BE 1A1a-CO2 1.A.1.a 1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Solid Fuels CO2

IE 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy-Coal CO2

IE 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy-Peat CO2

IE 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy-Gas CO2

IE 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy-Other CO2

NL 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Emissions from stationary combustion : Energy Industries CO2

SE 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Pow er- and district heating plants CO2

Source category

4

Uncertainty analysis: approachUncertainty analysis: approach (2) (2)MS

AT 1A-CO2 1 A gaseous Fuel Combustion (stationary)

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Coal

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Petroleum coke

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Plastic w aste

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Residual oil

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Gas oil

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Kerosene

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Orimulsion

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Natural gas

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, LPG

DK 1A-CO2 1A excl 1A3 Stationary Combustion, Refinery gas

IT 1A-CO2 1A (excl 1A3) CO2 stationary combustion liquid fuels

IT 1A-CO2 1A (excl 1A3) CO2 stationary combustion solid fuels

IT 1A-CO2 1A (excl 1A3) CO2 stationary combustion gaseous fuels

UK 1A-CO2 1A Coal

UK 1A-CO2 1A Natural Gas

UK 1A-CO2 1A Other (w aste)

UK 1A-CO2 1A(stationary) Oil

ES 1A-CO2 1A2+1A4 Stationary combustion - Other sources - Liquid

ES 1A-CO2 1A2+1A4 Stationary combustion - Other sources - Gaseous

ES 1A-CO2 1A2+1A4 Stationary combustion - Other sources - Solid

FI 1A-CO2 1A Liquid Fuels

FI 1A-CO2 1A Solid fuels

FI 1A-CO2 1A Gaseous fuels

FI 1A-CO2 1A Other fuels

GR 1A-CO2 1A 1,2,4 Stationary Combustion - solid fuels

GR 1A-CO2 1A 1,2,4 Stationary Combustion - liquid fuels

GR 1A-CO2 1A 1,2,4 Stationary Combustion - gaseous fuels

SE 1A-CO2 1A Other Industries and Solid Fuel Transformation

SE 1A-CO2 1A Mobile combustion and stationary combustion except energy plants/industries

Source category

5

Uncertainty analysis: approachUncertainty analysis: approach (3) (3)

• Then for each source category a range of uncertainty estimates was calculated:– lower bound: assuming no correlation among MS uncertainty estimates– upper bound: assuming full correlation among MS uncertainty

estimates

• Basic equations on summing up of variances with correlation:– VAR(X+Y)=VAR(X)+VAR(Y)+2COVAR(X,Y)– COVAR(X,Y)=r*sqrt[VAR(X)*VAR(Y)]– VAR: variance– COVAR: covariance– R: correlation coefficient (assumed to be 1)

6

Uncertainty analysis: approachUncertainty analysis: approach (4) (4)

• Then single uncertainty estimate calculated for each source category assuming that:– MS uncertainty estimates fully correlate if default EF are used

and/or Tier 1 methods are used– The fact that AD are most likely uncorrelated was neglected

• Then uncertainty estimates for total GHG emissions and for the sectors were calculated:– Stationary fuel combustion– Transport– Fugitive emissions– Industrial processes– Agriculture– Waste

Also plausibility checks were made with Monte Carlo tool

7

Uncertainty analysis: exampleUncertainty analysis: example

Uncertainty [%]AT 7.1BE 5.4ES 20.0FI 11.2IE 7.1IT 8.5DE 30.0GR 29.2SE 5.4UK 5.1

% uncertainty without correlation

% uncertainty with correlation

EU-15 12.0 17.9

Emissions of four member states are considered to be correlated,

because they use the same, default EF

Uncertainty EU-15 =13.3 %

CO2 emissions from 2 A 2 Lime Production

MS uncertainties range from 5 % – 30 %Four MS use the same, default emission factors (DE, GR, SE, UK)

8

EU-15 uncertainty estimatesEU-15 uncertainty estimates

• Lowest uncertainty estimates for stationary fuel combustion (1 %) and transport (3 %)

• Highest estimates for agriculture (44 % - 83 %).• For agriculture the range depends on assumption

on N2O emissions from soils:– lower bound: not correlated– upper bound: fully correlated

Fuel combustion stationary all 2.463.964 2.403.737 98% 1% 1%Transport all 872.311 800.635 92% 3% 3%Fugitive emissions all 57.046 61.519 108% 11% 11%Industrial processes all 265.030 230.150 87% 6% 7%Agriculture all 414.427 403.063 97% 41% - 74% 44% - 83%Waste all 96.728 87.634 91% 17% 19%Total all 4.179.613 3.986.738 95% 4% - 8% 5% - 8%

Uncertainty estimates based

on MS uncertainty estimates(Update)

GasSource category Emissions

2003 1)

Emissions for which MS

uncertainty estimates are

available 2)

Share of emissions for

which MS uncertainty

estimates are available

Uncertainty estimates based

on MS uncertainty estimates (NIR 2005)

9

Uncertainty estimates and Uncertainty estimates and recalculationsrecalculations

Fuel combustion stationary 1,4% 0,03%Transport 3,4% -0,3%Fugitive emissions 11,1% -10,8%Industrial processes 7,0% 4,0%Agriculture 44% - 83% 0,8%Waste 18,8% -0,9%Total 5% - 8% 0,1%

Source category Uncertainty estimates based

Recalculations 2002

10

Uncertainty contributionUncertainty contribution

15 sources contribute 99.7% to EC uncertainties

Source category GasCombined uncertainty as

% of total national emissions in 2003

4.D Agricultural soils (low estimate) N2O 4,3545

1.A.3.b Road transport CO2 0,0064

1.A stationary combustion unspecif ied N2O 0,0053

4.B Manure management CH4 0,0050

4.B Manure management N2O 0,0047

1.A.1.a Public electricity and heat production CO2 0,0044

4.A Enteric fermentation CH4 0,0040

1.A stationary combustion unspecif ied CO2 0,0035

6.A Solid w aste disposal on land CH4 0,0032

2.F Consumption of halocarbons and SF6 HFC 0,0031

1.A.2 Manufacturing industries and construction CO2 0,0025

6.B Waste w ater handling N2O 0,0025

1.A.4.b Residential CO2 0,0025

1.A.3.b Road transport N2O 0,0023

2.B Chemical industry N2O 0,0022

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Uncertainty estimates: 4D NUncertainty estimates: 4D N22OO

EC range: 89% - 233%

MS GasAD

uncertaintyEF

uncertaintyCombined uncertainty

BE 4D-N2O 4.D.1 4.D.1. Agricultural Soils N2O 30 250 252

FR 4D-N2O 4D Agricultural Soils N2O 10 200 200

NL 4D-N2O 4D Direct N2O emissions from agricultural soils N2O 10 60 61

AT 4D-N2O 4 D 1 Direct Soil Emissions N2O 0 24 24

AT 4D-N2O 4 D 3 Indirect Emissions N2O 0 24 24

DE 4D-N2O 4D1. Agricultural Soils Direct Soil Emissions N2O 75 150 168

DE 4D-N2O 4D2. Agricultural Soils Animal Production N2O 20 75 78

DE 4D-N2O 4D3. Agricultural Soils Indirect Emissions N2O 75 150 168

DK 4D-N2O 4D Agriculture, Agricultural soils N2O 20 500 500

ES 4D-N2O 4D1 Agricultural soils - Direct emissions N2O 8 380 380

ES 4D-N2O 4D2 Agricultural soils - Animal production N2O 50 100 112

ES 4D-N2O 4D3 Agricultural soils - Indirect emissions N2O 100 900 906

FI 4D-N2O 4D 4.D.Agricultural soils: direct emissions, animal production and sludge spreadingN2O 56 0 56

FI 4D-N2O 4D 4.D.Agricultural soils: indirect emissions N2O 341 0 341

GR 4D-N2O 4D Agricultural soils - direct emissions N2O 10 400 400

GR 4D-N2O 4D Agricultural soils - indirect emissions N2O 10 50 51

IE 4D-N2O 4D Agricultural Soils N2O 32 100 105

IT 4D-N2O 4D1 Direct N2O Agricultural Soils N2O 20 25 32

IT 4D-N2O 4D2 N2O from animal production N2O 20 100 102

IT 4D-N2O 4D3 Indirect N2O from Nitrogen used in agriculture N2O 20 50 54

NL 4D-N2O 4D Indirect N2O emissions from nitrogen used in agriculture N2O 50 200 206

SE 4D-N2O 4D Agricultural soils N2O 20 85 87

UK 4D-N2O 4D Agricultural Soils N2O 1 424 424

Source category

12

Uncertainty estimates: 1A3b COUncertainty estimates: 1A3b CO22

EC range: 3.4% - 7.4%; EC estimate: 3.4%

MS GasAD

uncertaintyEF

uncertaintyCombined uncertainty

AT 1A3b-CO2 1 A 3 b diesel oilRoad Transportation CO2 0,5 0,5 0,7AT 1A3b-CO2 1 A 3 b gasoline Road Transportation CO2 0,5 0,5 0,7DE 1A3b-CO2 1A3b. Transport Road TransportationDiesel Oil CO2 20,0 7,0 21,2DE 1A3b-CO2 1A3b. Transport Road TransportationGasoline CO2 20,0 7,0 21,2DE 1A3b-CO2 1A3b. Transport Road TransportationLiquid Gas CO2 20,0 7,0 21,2DE 1A3b-CO2 1A3b. Transport Road TransportationPetroleum CO2 20,0 7,0 21,2ES 1A3b-CO2 1A3b Road transportation - Gasoline CO2 3,5 2,1 4,1ES 1A3b-CO2 1A3b Road transportation - Diesel CO2 5,0 2,2 5,5

FR 1A3b-CO2 1A3 Transport CO2 3,0 1,0 3,2IE 1A3b-CO2 1A3 Transport-Oil CO2 1,0 2,5 2,7IT 1A3b-CO2 1A3 CO2 Mobile combustion: Road Vehicles CO2 3,0 3,0 4,2NL 1A3b-CO2 1A3b Mobile combustion: road vehicles CO2 2,0 2,0 2,8UK 1A3b-CO2 1A3b Auto Fuel CO2 0,8 2,0 2,2BE 1A3b-CO2 1.A.3.b 1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Diesel Oil CO2 5,0 2,0 5,4BE 1A3b-CO2 1.A.3.b 1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - Gasoline CO2 5,0 2,0 5,4BE 1A3b-CO2 1.A.3.b 1.A.3.b. Road Transportation - LPG CO2 5,0 2,0 5,4DK 1A3b-CO2 1A3 Transport, Road transport, Gasoline CO2 2,0 5,0 5,4DK 1A3b-CO2 1A3 Transport, Road transport, Diesel Oil CO2 2,0 5,0 5,4GR 1A3b-CO2 1A3 Road transport CO2 5,0 1,0 5,1

Source category

13

Uncertainty estimates: 4B NUncertainty estimates: 4B N22OO

EC range: 50% - 133%; EC estimate: 109%

MS GasAD

uncertaintyEF

uncertaintyCombined uncertainty

AT 4B-N2O 4 B 1 Cattle N2O 10 75 76

DE 4B-N2O 4B13. Manure Management OtherDairy Cow s N2O 7 75 75

DE 4B-N2O 4B13. Manure Management OtherOther Cattle N2O 7 75 75

DE 4B-N2O 4B13. Manure Management OtherSheep N2O 7 75 75

DE 4B-N2O 4B13. Manure Management OtherHorses N2O 7 75 75

DE 4B-N2O 4B13. Manure Management OtherSw ine N2O 7 75 75

DE 4B-N2O 4B13. Manure Management OtherPoultry N2O 7 75 75

FR 4B-N2O 4B Manure Management N2O 5 50 50

NL 4B-N2O 4B Emissions from manure management N2O 10 100 100

BE 4B-N2O 4.B.11 4.B. Manure Management N2O 10 90 91

DK 4B-N2O 4B Agriculture, manure management N2O 10 500 500

ES 4B-N2O 4B Manure management N2O 35 200 203

FI 4B-N2O 4B 4.B.Manure management N2O 83 0 83

GR 4B-N2O 4B Manure management N2O 50 75 90

IE 4B-N2O 4B Manure Management N2O 32 100 105

IT 4B-N2O 4B N2O Manure Management N2O 20 100 102

SE 4B-N2O 4B Manure management N2O 20 50 54

UK 4B-N2O 4B Manure Management N2O 1 414 414

Source category

14

Uncertainty estimates: 4B CHUncertainty estimates: 4B CH44

EC range: 33% - 69%; EC estimate: 33%

MS GasAD

uncertaintyEF

uncertaintyCombined uncertainty

AT 4B-CH4 4 B 1 Cattle CH4 10 69 70

AT 4B-CH4 4 B 8 Sw ine CH4 10 70 71

BE 4B-CH4 4.B.1 4.B. Manure Management CH4 10 40 41

DK 4B-CH4 4B Agriculture, manure management CH4 10 30 32

ES 4B-CH4 4B Manure management CH4 35 200 203

FI 4B-CH4 4B 4.B.Manure management CH4 17 0 17

IT 4B-CH4 4B CH4 Manure Management CH4 20 50 54

NL 4B-CH4 4B Emissions from manure management : cattle CH4 10 100 100

NL 4B-CH4 4B Emissions from manure management : sw ine CH4 10 100 100

NL 4B-CH4 4B Emissions from manure management : poultry CH4 10 100 100

NL 4B-CH4 4B Emissions from manure management : other CH4 10 100 100

SE 4B-CH4 4B Manure management CH4 20 50 54

UK 4B-CH4 4B Manure Management CH4 0 30 30

DE 4B-CH4 4B1. Manure ManagementDairy Cattle CH4 7 40 41

DE 4B-CH4 4B1. Manure ManagementNon-Dairy Cattle CH4 7 40 41

DE 4B-CH4 4B3. Manure ManagementSheep CH4 7 40 41

DE 4B-CH4 4B6. Manure ManagementHorses CH4 7 40 41

DE 4B-CH4 4B8. Manure ManagementSw ine CH4 7 40 41

DE 4B-CH4 4B9. Manure Management Poultry CH4 7 40 41

FR 4B-CH4 4B Manure Management CH4 5 50 50

GR 4B-CH4 4B Manure management CH4 1 50 50

IE 4B-CH4 4B Manure Management CH4 32 50 59

Source category

15

Uncertainty estimates: 1A1a COUncertainty estimates: 1A1a CO22

EC range: 3.1% - 5.0%; EC estimate: 3.1%

MS GasAD

uncertaintyEF

uncertaintyCombined uncertainty

AT 1A1a-CO2 1 A 1 a liquid Public Electricity and Heat Production CO2 0,5 0,5 0,7

AT 1A1a-CO2 1 A 1 a other Public Electricity and Heat Production CO2 10 20 22,4

AT 1A1a-CO2 1 A 1 a solid Public Electricity and Heat Production CO2 0,5 0,5 0,7

BE 1A1a-CO2 1.A.1.a 1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Gaseous Fuels CO2 1 1 1,4

BE 1A1a-CO2 1.A.1.a 1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Liquid Fuels CO2 1 2 2,2

BE 1A1a-CO2 1.A.1.a 1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Other Fuels CO2 5 10 11,2

BE 1A1a-CO2 1.A.1.a 1.A.1.a. Public Electricity and Heat Production - Solid Fuels CO2 1 5 5,1

DE 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Public electricity and Heat production Gaseous Fuels CO2 7 3 7,6

DE 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Public electricity and Heat production Liquid Fuels CO2 7 3 7,6

DE 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Public electricity and Heat production Other Fuels CO2 7 3 7,6

DE 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Public electricity and Heat production Solid Fuels CO2 5 3 5,8

DE 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Public electricity and Heat production Biomass CO2 2 3 3,6

ES 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Public electricity and heat production - Solid CO2 2 4 4,5

ES 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Public electricity and heat production - Liquid CO2 1,5 2 2,5

ES 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Public electricity and heat production - Gaseous CO2 1,75 1,5 2,3

FR 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy Industries / coal CO2 2 1 2,2

FR 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy Industries / other fuels CO2 4 6 7,2

FR 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy Industries / gas CO2 2 1 2,2

IE 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy-Coal CO2 1 5 5,1

IE 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy-Peat CO2 1 5 5,1

IE 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy-Gas CO2 1 2,5 2,7

IE 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Energy-Other CO2 1 2,5 2,7

NL 1A1a-CO2 1A1 Emissions from stationary combustion : Energy Industries CO2 3 2 3,6

SE 1A1a-CO2 1A1a Pow er- and district heating plants CO2 2 5 5,4

Source category

16

Issues for Working groupIssues for Working group

• Level of detail of EC uncertainty analysis– Currently detailed level depending on MS availability– Combination of different levels (e.g. 1A1-1A1a; 1A) appropriate?

• Methods/assumptions to combine uncertainty estimates at EC level– Criteria to identify correlations?– Currently: focus on EF and methods; neglect AD– Is assumption on full correlation appropriate?

• Improvement of EC uncertainty analysis– Combination of various years: alternative?– Not for all MS/sectors (i.p. LULUCF) available: gap filling?– How to estimate trend uncertainty? No AD, EF uncertainty for EC– Correction for large uncertainties? Tier 2 approach?

• Timing of EC uncertainty analysis– How often and when– Use of EC uncertainty estimates e.g. Tier 2 Key source analysis

17

18

Uncertainty 1A4b COUncertainty 1A4b CO22

EC range: 3.2% - 7.0%; EC estimate: 3.3%

MS GasAD

uncertaintyEF

uncertaintyCombined uncertainty

AT 1A4b-CO2 1 A 4 solid Other Sectors CO2 1,0 0,5 1,1AT 1A4b-CO2 1 A 4 stat-liquid Other Sectors CO2 1,0 0,5 1,1DE 1A4b-CO2 1A4b. Other Sectors ResidentialGaseous Fuels CO2 11,0 2,5 11,3DE 1A4b-CO2 1A4b. Other Sectors ResidentialLiquid Fuels CO2 9,0 5,0 10,3DE 1A4b-CO2 1A4b. Other Sectors ResidentialSolid Fuels CO2 9,0 20,0 21,9

FR 1A4b-CO2 1A4 Commercial, resid., agriculture... / oil CO2 3,0 1,0 3,2FR 1A4b-CO2 1A4 Commercial, resid., agriculture... / gas CO2 3,0 1,0 3,2IE 1A4b-CO2 1A4 Other-Coal and PC CO2 5,0 10,0 11,2IE 1A4b-CO2 1A4 Other-Peat CO2 10,0 20,0 22,4IE 1A4b-CO2 1A4 Other-Gas CO2 2,5 2,5 3,5IE 1A4b-CO2 1A4 Other-Oil CO2 10,0 5,0 11,2NL 1A4b-CO2 1A4 Emissions from stationary combustion : Other Sectors CO2 3,0 1,0 3,2DK 1A4b-CO2 1A4 Transport, Household and gardening, Gasoline CO2 20,0 5,0 20,6BE 1A4b-CO2 1.A.4.b 1.A.4.b. Residential - Gaseous Fuels CO2 4,0 1,0 4,1BE 1A4b-CO2 1.A.4.b 1.A.4.b. Residential - Liquid Fuels CO2 10,0 2,0 10,2BE 1A4b-CO2 1.A.4.b 1.A.4.b. Residential - Other Fuels CO2 10,0 2,0 10,2BE 1A4b-CO2 1.A.4.b 1.A.4.b. Residential - Solid Fuels CO2 15,0 5,0 15,8

Source category