EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate...
Transcript of EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate...
![Page 1: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
EC-Earth – and integrated assessment modelling
Bart van den HurkWilco Hazeleger
![Page 2: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
IMAGE
EC-Earth
van Vuuren et al 2012
![Page 3: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Contents
EC-Earth
CMIP5 results so far
Examples of integrated studies
Land use – climate
Air pollution policies
![Page 4: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction model
(ECMWF)
Continuous updates
Consortium effort
Seamless approach: from seasonal to decadal to century
Extension to Earth System Model ongoing
Hazeleger et al BAMS 2010, Clim Dyn 2012
![Page 5: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The NetherlandsKNMI, U Utrecht, WUR, VU. SARA
PortugalIM, U Lisbon
SwedenSMHI, Lund U, Stockholm U,
IRV
BelgiumUCL
SpainAEMET, BSC, IC3
DenmarkDMI, Univ Copenh
IrelandMetEireann,
UCD, ICHEC
SwitzerlandETHZ, C2SM
NorwayNTNU, Bjerkn. C.
ItalyICTP,CNR,
ENEA
EC-Earth consortium
Steering group: W. Hazeleger (KNMI, chair), C. Jones (SMHI), J. Hesselbjerg, Christensen (DMI), R.
McGrath (Met Eireann), P. Viterbo (IM), E. C. Rodriguez (AEMET) observer E. Kallen (ECMWF), NEMO-
representative
GermanyIFM/GEOMAR
![Page 6: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
ECMWFs atmosphere model(from 150 km to 20 km global)
NEMO ocean model(120 km to 25 km global)
TM5: chemistry transport Model
LPJ-GUESS vegetation
Off-line coupled to IMAGE
Hazeleger et al BAMS, October, 2010
![Page 7: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Some CMIP5 results
In general: comparable results to CMIP3/4
Similar climate sensitivity
Uncertainties still large in clouds and indirect aerosol effect
(relevant to RCP 2.6 in particular � strong warming in some
models in the first few decades)
No abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
except for one model (FIO ESM)
More models with online (biogeo)chemistry modules
![Page 8: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
CMIP5 model uncertainty still large
CMIP5: Coupled Model Intercomparison project #5http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/
![Page 9: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Response in Western Europe wrt global mean (JJA)
![Page 11: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Serreze et al 2012
![Page 12: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
EC-Earth results in CMIP5 ‘plume’
+2
+1
Glo
balte
mpera
ture
rise
(C)
![Page 13: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Regional trends still challenging for CMIP5
![Page 14: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
New decadal initialized predictions
Initialized from observations instead of preindustrial spin up run. Allows for forecasts, including phase and amplitude of natural variability
2 meter temperature, 2016-2020wrt 1971-2000
Smith et al 2012, submitted
![Page 15: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Coupled models to study feedbacks
Literature review by Batlle-Bayer et al
![Page 16: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Vegetation/albedo feedbacks in Amazon
Literature review by Batlle-Bayer et al
![Page 17: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Literature review by Batlle-Bayer et al
NPP – precipitation correlations in Amazon
Month�
Time scale
�
3 Amazonian locations
![Page 18: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Emissions and concentrations with alternative air quality
policies (IMAGE/TM5)
Air pollution policy
climate policy
Image 6.0 high Image 6.0 low
Image 2.6 high Image 2.6 low
Low: emission factors of air pollutants decline up to 2030 (implementation of current and planned air quality policies). After 2030, further abatement measures are a function of the increasing income levels
High: constant emission factors from 2010 onward
![Page 19: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Dia 18
h2 hazelege; 12-11-2012
![Page 20: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Impact on surface ozone (high minus low)
Result from IMAGE emissions into TM5 CTM (Chuwah et al in prep)
![Page 21: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
North America (NA) (60°W-125°W × 15°N-55°N), Europe (EU) (10°W-50°E × 25°N-65°N),
East Asia (EA) (95°E-160°E × 15°N-50°N) and South Asia (SA) (50°E-95°E × 5°N-35°N)
Surface O3 2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
NA EU EA SA
Regions
ppbv
2005
IM2.6-low
IM2.6-high
IM6.0-low
IM6.0-high
Surface SO4 2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NA EU EA SA
Regionsµg/m
3
![Page 22: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Impact on climate
Impact on direct radiative forcing is small
To do:
Full coupling with EC-Earth to identify regional feedbacks to climate
Sensitivity to indirect aerosol effect
-0.030.060.09-0.070.110.100.070.07Total RF
IM6.0High
2050
IM6.0Low
2050
IM2.6High
2050
IM2.6Low
2050
IM6.0High
2020
IM6.0Low
2020
IM2.6High
2020
IM2.6Low
2020
![Page 23: EC-Earth –and integrated assessment modelling · Examplesof integratedstudies Land use–climate Air pollutionpolicies. Based on and in collaboration with best weather prediction](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022041023/5ed4c9d7fd1f950b814dfcd2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Final remarks
new seamless prediction earth system model:
regular updates from Numerical Weather
Prediction, can run at very high resolution
(synoptic weather scales)
CMIP5: similar results to CMIP3. EC-Earth not that
different from other GCMs.
Opportunities in coupling ESMs to IAMs:
Exploring feedbacks
Exploring consistent socio-economic and
physical scenarios at regional scales