East Timor: The journey from political violence to personal security (2008-present)
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Juana de Catheu Governance and security adviser @ Development Results. Overseas Development Institute 27 January 2015
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Transcript of East Timor: The journey from political violence to personal security (2008-present)
Juana de CatheuGovernance and security adviser @ Development Results.Overseas Development Institute27 January 2015
1. Background from the independence struggle to civil
conflict
2. Security progress, 2009-14
2. Security progress, 2013-14
Source: The Asia Foundation and Belun, 2014
3. Security progress, 2014
Source: The Asia Foundation and Belun, 2014
“No one internationally believed that giving each IDP USD 4,000 would work, but it did. IDP camps closed inside of two years.”--Advisor in the Ministry of Finance
«Politicians are realising it is better
to work together. It is better than
than dividing the country, which
would bring us more conflict »
−A religious leader, Bacau district
« The whole UN intervention was a process fo legitimisation of Timor as a state and as a people… The UN presence has made East Timor a country.”—A Timorese professor
4. Drivers of progress
« The 2006 crisis was like a big hit to remind
everyone that they had to work towards peace »
−Local NGO leader
“The biggest driver of security was
the payments to veterans after
2006”. –A donor representative
4. Drivers of progress
4. Drivers of progress
peacekeeping and massive, stable aid
Source: UNDPKO, 2014; CIC, 2014; OECD-DAC online data, 2014.
4. Drivers of progressLots of carrots, and some sticks
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on World Bank, 2013.
“The long-term threat to
establishing the rule of law and
stability outweighs the short-term
benefits of political reconciliation
without justice “
« Inequalities lead to frustrations and the latter to conflict and instability » --PM, 26 Jan. 2015
«“The very same things that have
allowed Timor-Leste’s stability could
be Timor-Leste’s undoing….The
current phenomenon is not a
development of law and order but a
development of power…they have
enough resources to buy the peace for
the moment, [but] it is not peace, it is
stability for the elite.”
Local NGO Leader in Dil
It is a very, very peaceful situation now. But behind the peace are hidden many, many things that can lead to collapse… There is a legacy of problems from 1975-1999 and also those from the recent years. There are a lot of cases where Xanana is keeping issues like this [clasps hands together].
–-Timorese security analyst
5. Challenges
5. Challenges
1. Persistent and new/under-reported forms of violence
2. Persistent tensions in the security sector
3. Sustainability of two drivers (Xanana’s leadership and “buying the peace”)
4. Growing expectations, finite oil and gas reserves
« Timorese Flee as Militas Gain
Upper Hand. UN Says a Quarter
Have Fled » (1999)
I want to serve in 2015 with energy and passion (PM, 31 Dec. 2014)
« Indonesia Talks of Leaving Timor,
and Both Sides Are Nervous »
(1999)
« Inequalities lead to frustrations and the latter to conflict and instability » (PM, 26 Jan. 2015)
« In Huge, Model Vote, East
Timorese Choose Their Future »
(1999)
«24 Rebel Plotters Sentenced » (2008)
« Elections to be proud of » (President Ramos-Horta, 16 April 2012)
«Timor-Leste: Chronic Malnutrition Among World’s Highest » (2011)
Conclusion
Thank [email protected]
