Earth System Feedbacks:

Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle to Drought and Fire

Canberra, Australia5-8 June 2006 – Part I

8-9 June 2006 – Part II (Australia focus)

Organized by:Global Carbon Project

ARC Network for Earth System ScienceCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

Australian Climate Change Science ProgramAustralian Academy of Science

Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth SystemEuropean Space Agency

The Earth System Science Partnership

Carbon-Climate-Human system

1. Patterns and Variability

1.1. Enhancing Observations

1.2. Model-data Synthesis

1.3 Carbon Budgets

2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechan.

2.2. Emergent Properties of the Carbon-Climate system

2.3. Vulnerabilities of the C-C-H

3. Carbon Management

3.1. Mitigation Options

3.2. Carbon Management & Sustainability

3.3. Regional/Urban Develop.

GCP Science Framework

Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century

Permafrost

HL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC

CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump

Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System

Oceans

Land

Field and Raupach 2004Canadell et al. 2006Many Pools and Processes not included in Earth System models

2006/07

Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century

Permafrost

HL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC

CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump

Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System

Oceans

Land

Field and Raupach 2004Canadell et al. 2006Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models

>400 Pg C - frozen sedimentsvulnerable to warming

400 Pg C - frozen soilsvulnerable to warming

Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century

Permafrost

HL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC

CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump

Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System

Oceans

Land

Field and Raupach 2004Canadell et al. 2006Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models

Pho

to:

Erk

ki O

ksan

enP

hoto

: E

rkki

Oks

anen

400 Pg C – cold peatlandsvulnerable to climate change

100 Pg C – tropical peatlands vulnerable to land use and

climate change

Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century

Permafrost

HL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC

CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump

Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System

Oceans

Land

Field and Raupach 2004Canadell et al. 2006Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models

>500 Pg C vegetation and soils vulnerable to drought x land use x fire

Mouillot et al. 2006

Trends in C Emissions from Fires

200

600

1000

1400

1800

1905 1925 1945 1995

2500

3000

3500

Tg C yr -1tropical savanna

tropical foresttemperate forest

boreal forest

total

1965

Difference Coupled-UncoupledAt

mos

pher

ic CO

2 (p

pm)

Carbon-Climate Feedbacks

Friedlingstein et al. 2006

10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle

20 to 200 ppm

0.1°C to 1.5 ° C

CO2 Concentrations

~250ppm

IPCC SRES 2000; IPCC TAR 2001

Fossil Fuel + Land Use Change Scenarios(IPCC SRES)

Examples of vulnerable C pools to drought of global significance

Drought and Fire

Drought andLand Use

WCForest

Savanna

Savanna

SE Forest

Boreal Fires

Temp. Plantations

Borneo Peatlands

2003 Heat Wave

Boreal Forest NH Drought

Carbon Emissions from Tropical Peatlands – Borneo

Spessa et al., in preparation

Carbon Emissions from Tropical Peatlands – BorneoAnnual C Emissions from peat fires

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Emis

sion

s (G

iga

tonn

es) carbon

CO2

CO

CO2 source

CO2 sink

Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec.-2

0

2

4

6

Month

NE

E (

gC m-2

d-1

) 2002 2003 2004

Spessa et al., in preparation

Hirano et al., in preparation

Northern Hemisphere Forest Sinks - Disturbances

Goodale et al. 2002

Pg C yr-1

Canadian Forest Net Carbon UptakeDi

stur

bed

Area

(M

ha)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000ClearCut Fire Insects Total

Variable Temp Constant Temp

-200-100

0

100

200

300

400

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Land

Upt

ake

(Tg

C /y

r-1)

Kurz & Apps 1999

Angert et al. 2005; Dai et al. 2005

Climate Variability Effects on the C Sink

The largest productivity crash of the past 100 years

Ciais et al. 2005, Peylin et al., unpublished

2003 Heat Wave in Europe

30% Reduction of GPP0.5PgC Net source of CO2

4years Equivalent C sink

Mod

el N

PP g

Cm-2 m

o

CO2 Anom

aly

Annual Mean CO2 at Cap Grim (Tasmania)

2005 Global Average: 279 ppm

Paul Fraser, unpublished

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

grow

th ra

te (p

pm/y

r)

340

360

380

mixi

ng ra

tio(p

carbon dioxide (CO 2)0.54 %/yr

Bern ref.model

La Nina

Pinotubo

El NinoDrought

CO2 c

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

)G

rowt

h Ra

te (p

pm y

r-1)

La Nina

growth rate increased by 70% over last 30 years

Revised Global Carbon Budget 1980-2005

1980’s 1990’s 2000-2005

Atmospheric Increase 3.3±0.1 3.2±0.1 4.1±0.1

Emissions (FF) 5.4±0.3 6.4±0.3 7.0±0.3

Net Ocean-Atmosph. Flux -1.8±0.8 -2.2±0.4 -2.2±0.5

Net Land-Atmosph. Flux -0.3±0.9 -1.0±0.5 -0.7±0.5

Land Use Change 1.3 1.6 NAResidual Land Sink -1.6 -2.6 NA

(-3.8 to 0.3) (-4.3 to 1.0)

GCP, IPCC in preparation

10 Carbon CoupledGCMs – C4MIP

Cramer et al. 2001, IPCC TAR 2001, Friedlingstein et al. 2006, in press

6 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

Land

Upt

ake

(Pg

C yr

-1

21st Century Projections of Terrestrial C Uptake

Will changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly drought characteristics (intensity, frequency, long-

term trends) weaken the terrestrial C sink?

Scope of the Workshop

What are the consequences of the perturbation of the carbon-water system for regional and global

management?

Theme 1:

Observations Climate and Vegetation

Theme 2:

Processes and Controls of the Coupled Carbon-Water System

Theme 3:

Modeling Carbon-Water Interactions

Theme 4:

Vulnerability of Ecosystems Services

Workshop Themes

Outcomes

• Current evidence and understanding of impacts of drought on the strength of the terrestrial C sink and their underlaying drivers.

• Implications for global and regional management of the carbon-water system.

• Identification of key research areas to advance in this field.

Products

1. A synthesis paper on the state-of-the-art understanding on the drought-C sink issue.– Short ms. for EOS, Science, Nature, others, …

2. A synthesis paper on the state-of-the-art understanding on management of the carbon-water system.– Ecological Applications, others, …

3. Special Feature or Special Issue if enough interest exist.– Rapid Web Based Journals

• Biogeoscience (EGU, AGU)• Carbon Balance and Management

– Global Change Biology– Ecological Applications– Climatic Change– Others

20 minute talks10 minute for questions1 hour after each theme

Wednesday afternoon4 hours – products and ms. outlines

Thursday morningOverlap with a National Workshop

Thursday afternoon to FridayNational Workshop

Thursday afternoonTrip to Namagi

Structure of the Workshop

end