(最終版)Earth Simulator based climate modelling
Transcript of (最終版)Earth Simulator based climate modelling
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Earth Simulator based climate modellingwith AR4 findings & application to adaptation studies
Hiroki Kondo
Principal ScientistIPCC Contributing Earth Environment Projection Project
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
JICA Training Course Lecture (12 February 2010)JICA Training Course Lecture (12 February 2010)
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(UNEP)
IPCC Structure for the AR4(2007)
WG(Mitigation)
Co-chairs
(2)Vice
Chairs(6)
InventoryTask Force
Co-chairs(2)
Members(12)
WG (Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability)
Co-chairs (2)
Vice Chairs (6)
TSU(USA)
TSU (UK
TSU Netherla
nds
TSU (Japan)
WG(Physical sciencebasis)
Co-chairs (2)Vice Chairs(6)
UNEP
IPCCPlenary
Chair Vice Chairs(3)
WMO
IPCC Bureau
(30 members)
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IPCC/AR4
*SPM: Summary for policy makers to be approved line by line.
Longer Part: detail part to be adoptedparagraph by paragraph.
WG(Physical ScienceBasis) SPM
TL, Chapters
WG(Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability)
SPMTL,Chapters
WG(Mitigation)
SPM
SynthesisReportSPM
Longer Part
TL, Chapters
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[AR4]: Virtually certain> 99%probability of occurrence, Extremely likely>95%, Very likely> 90%, Likely> 66%,More likely than not> 50%,
Unlikely< 33%, Very unlikely< 10%,Extremely unlikely< 5%
levels of confidence to express expert judgements on the correctness of the
underlying science:
very high confidence : at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct;
high confidence : about an 8 out of 10 chance of being correct
[TAR]: virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a result is true);
very likely (90-99% chance);
likely (66-90% chance); medium likelihood (33-66% chance);
unlikely (10-33% chance);
very unlikely (1-10% chance);
exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance).
How to express the degree of certainty or uncertainty
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Development of major IPCC messages
1990 First Assessment Report (FAR)
continued accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in theatmosphere would lead to climate change .
1995 Second Assessment Report (SAR) the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human
influence on global climate.2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR) Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years islikelyto have
beendue to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
(likely in TAR: 66 90% of chance)
2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the
mid-20th century isvery likelydue to the increase in greenhouse gasconcentrations very likely in AR4:probability of more than 90%)
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Observed and estimated
climate up to now
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(IPCC/WG1/AR4)
Warmest 12 years:1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2006,
2001, 1997, 1995, 1999, 1990, 2000
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Average NH temperaturesduring the second half of the 20th century were very likelyhigher thanduring any other 50-year period in the last 500 years andlikelythe highest in at least the past 1,300years.
NH Temperature change in the past 1,300 years
IPCC/WG1/AR4
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Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm)
20th century: +0.17m +1.7 mm / yearon average
1961 2003 1.8 mm/ yearon average 1993 2003 3.1 mm/ yearon average Whether this faster ratereflects
decadal variability or an increase in the longer term trend is unclear.But, new data since the TAR now show that losses from the ice sheets of
IPCC/WG1/AR4
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IPCC/WG1/AR4
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Snow cover (NH) and Glacier (global)
IPCC/WG1/AR4
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Summer minimum arctic sea ice extent(from 1979 to 2005)
Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global averagerate in the past 100 years. Satellite data since 1978 show that annualaveragearctic sea ice extent
has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade, with larger decreases in summer
of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per decade.Antarctic sea ice extent continues to show interannual variability and
localised changes but no statistically significant average trends,
IPCC/WG1/AR4
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September 2007:The smallestextent on record (NSIDC)
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Post-AR4 observation: Further decrease of arctic sea ice extent
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Observed changes in extreme weather
Hot days, hot nights, and heat waveshavebecome more frequent over the last 50 years.
More intense and longer droughtshave beenobserved over wider areas since 1970s.
The frequency of heavy precipitation eventshas increased over most land areas, consistentwith warming and observed increases ofatmospheric water vapour.
There is observational evidence foran intensetropical cyclone activity in the North Atlanticsince about 1970.
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Mechanism of climate system
and greenhouse effect
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Schematic view of the components of the climate system, their processes and interactions
(IPCC/WG1/AR4)
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An idealised model of the natural greenhouse effect
(IPCC/WG1/AR4)
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Attribution of the global warming
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Carbon Dioxide(CO2)
Methane(CH4)
Nitrous Oxide(N2O)
Changes in greenhouse
gases from ice core
and modern data
(IPCC/WG1/AR4)
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Budget of atmospheric CO2 per year(In1990s; figures are in terms offlux to the atmosphere;AR4
Total AnthropogenicEmission 8.0 GtC/yr - From fossil fuel and cement production 6.4GtC/yr
- From land use change 1.6 GtC/yr
Total Natural Absorption - 4.8 GtC/yr
- Net ocean absorption - 2.2 GtC/yr- Net biosphere absorption on land - 2.6 GtC/yr
3.2 GtC/yearremained as additional amount to the
atmosphere
In 1980s (Updated from TAR Anthropogenic Emission 6.8 GtC/yr Natural Absorption - 3.5 GtC/yr
3.3 GtC/yearremained as additional amount to the atmosphere
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Estimates of sea-to-air flux of CO2
Estimates (4 5) of sea-to-air flux of CO2, computed using 940,000 measurements of surface water pCO2collected since 1956 and averaged monthly, together with NCEP/NCAR 41-year mean monthly wind speeds
and a (10-m wind speed)2 dependence on the gas transfer rate (Wanninkhof, 1992). The fluxes werenormalised to the year 1995 using techniques described in Takahashi et al. (2002), who used wind speeds
(IPCC/WG1-AR4)
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From 58 Experiments by 14Models
(From 19 Experiments by 5 Models)
Most of the observed
increase in global
average temperatures
since the mid-20thcentury isvery likely
due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenicgreenhouse gas
concentrations.
Attribution
(IPCC/WG1-AR4)
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Projection of climate change
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Emission scenarios:
IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES, 2000)
A1:a future world of very rapid economic growth, etc.A1FI: with fossil-intensive energy sources
A1T: with non-fossil energy sources
A1B: with a balance across all energy sources [Medium]
A2:a very heterogeneous world with self relianceand preservation of local identities [High]
B1: a world with emphasis on globalsolutions to economic,
social and environmental sustainability [Low]B2: a world with emphasis on localsolutions to economic,
social and environmental sustainability.
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Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming
6 SRES Marker Scenarios
(IPCC/WG1-AR4)
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Projected global average surface warming and
sea level rise at the end of the 21st century
Table notes:
a: These estimates are assessed from a hierarchy of models that encompass a simple climate model,
several Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity and a large number of Atmosphere-Ocean
General Circulation Models (AOGCMs).
b: Year 2000 constant composition is derived from AOGCMs only.
(IPCC/WG1/AR4)
W i i t d t b t t l d d t t hi h th l tit d
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Warmingis expected to be greatest over landandat most high northern latitudes,
and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean
B1
A1B
A2
(IPCC/WG1-AR4)
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Figure SPM.7. Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090
2099, relative to 19801999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES
A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas
are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled
areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of thechange.
(IPCC/WG1-AR4)
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(IPCC/WG1-AR4)
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(IPCC/WG1-AR4)
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Projections ofextreme eventsand related
regional climate in the 21st century
It is very likelythat hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation
events will continue to become more frequent.
Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at most high
northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the
North Atlantic Ocean.
Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likelyin high
latitudes, while decreases are likelyin most subtropical land
regions (by as much as about 20% in the A1B scenario in 2100), continuing
observed patterns in recent trends.
It is likelythat future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will
become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy
precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea
surface temperatures.
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Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback
Increase of CO2
concentrationGlobal
warming
Impact onCarbon cycle
Further increase of
CO2 concentration
Further GlobalWarming
For the A2 scenario, for example, the climate-carbon cycle feedback increases the
corresponding global average warming at 2100 by more than 1.
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Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to increasing
acidification of the ocean. Projections based on SRES scenarios give reductions in average global surface
ocean pH ofbetween 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st century, adding to the
present decrease of 0.1 units since pre-industrial times.
Acidification of the ocean
IPCC/WG1/AR4
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Meridional overturning circulation (MOC)
It is very likelythat the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic
Ocean will slow down during the 21st century. The multi-model average reduction by 2100 is 25% (range from zero to about
50%) for SRES emission scenario A1B.
(IPCC/WG1/AR4)
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Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES
scenarios. In some projections, arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost
entirely by the latter part of the 21st century. WG1/AR4/SPM)
(Holland et al., 2006)
Summer sea ice concentration simulated
and projected (post AR4 finding)
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Impact of climate change
Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change
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p p g g p g
(IPCC/WG1-AR4)
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Reduction options for stability
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Category I concentration to be stabilized350 400 ppm or CO2equivalent
445490ppm in terms of external forcings including GHGs and aerosols
To attainCategory I, emission must to peak out around2000 2015,and
emission in2050must be reduced-85 -50 from the level of 2000.
Under the Category I, temperature would increase2.0 2.4 from pre-
(IPCC/AR4)
Ch i i f TAR bili i
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Characteristics of post-TAR stabilisationscenarios and resulting long-termequilibrium global average temperature
and the sea level rise component from thermalexpansion only
(IPCC/AR4/SYR)
Th f th diff b t i i i 1990
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The range of the difference between emissions in 1990
and emission allowances in 2020/2050(for various GHGconcentration levels for Annex I and non-Annex I countries as a group)
(IPCC/WG /AR4/Page 776/ Box 13.7)
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International activities forpost-Kyoto negotiation
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Outcomes from the COP15(Copenhagen, December 2009)
COP13agreed to finalize negotiations for the newframework to follow up the Kyoto Protocol by the end of
the COP15 in 2009.
Negotiations to finalize the post-Kyoto framework under
the two working groups (AWG-KPandAWG-LCA) wereunsuccessful and eventually suspended towards the
next Mexico City Conference (COP16) in 2010.
But, COP15 narrowly decided after long deliberation
beyond the night of the last day of the COP15 into the
morning and day time of the next day totake note ofthe
Copenhagen Accordagreed upon by Heads of State,Heads of Government, Ministers, and other heads.
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Some of the Major points ofCopenhagen Accord They agree thatdeep cuts in global emissions are required according to
science, and as documented byAR4with a view to reduce global
emissions so as tohold the increase in globaltemperature below 2(note: from pre-industrial) , and take action to meet this objectiveconsistent with science and on the basis of equity.
Adaptationto the adverse effects of climate change and the potentialimpacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all countries.
Annex Parties commit to implement individually or jointly the quantifiedeconomy-wide emissions targets for 2020, to be submitted in the format by 31 January 2010...
Non-Annex Parties will implement mitigation actions, including those tobe submitted by 31 January 2010
Scaled up, new and additional, predictable and adequate funding as well
as improved access shall be providedto developing countries toenable and support enhanced action on mitigation, including substantialfinance to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation(REDD-plus), adaptation, technology development and transfer andcapacity-building, for enhanced implementation of the Convention.
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The Role of the Earth Simulator
Japan Others
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1990 1995 2000 2005
Earth Simulator
10G
100G
1T
10T
100T
The Earth Simulator (ES) with peak performance of40 teraflops
became available in2002(top until late 2004)
The Earth Simulator (ES)
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The Earth Simulator (ES)
Node (8 CPU)
Crossbar switch
Nodes: 640, CPUs: 5120
Peak Performance: 40 Teraflops
Magnetic Disks
http://www.es.jamstec.go.jp/esc/jp/ES/index.html
65
meter
50 meter
131 Teraflops in the Updated Earth Simulator (ES2)
High-resolution Coupled Ocean-atmosphere
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High resolution Coupled Ocean atmosphere
Modelingand Global Warming Projection under
Scenarios(CCSR* et al.**)
High-resolution Coupled Model (MIROC) Atmosphere: T106 (~120 km)and 56 levels and
Ocean: 1/4 in latitude and 1/6 in longitude
Medium-resolution version (T42L20 ) has also beendeveloped to make projection experiments by the abovemodels for majorIPCC/SRES scenarios.
- Projections on east Asian regional climate, climate
extremes and ocean currents were focused.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*: CCSR =Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo
**: National Center for Environmental Studies (NIES) and Frontier ResearchCenter for Global Change (FRCGC) / Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Intensity of Kuroshio current
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Intensity ofKuroshio current
projected to increase
(CCSR/NIES/FRCGC)
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(CCSR/NIES/FRCGC)
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Integrated Earth system modeling
(JAMSTEC/FRSGC)
Main focus:Feed back effect of climate carbon
cycle
-Modeling of the Earth systemwith inclusion of
carbon cycle covering biospheric interaction
between atmosphere, ocean and land, into the
CCSR/NIES/FRCGC climate model. Processes inatmospheric chemistryin the stratosphere and
troposphere are also included
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Simulated and projected CO2 concentration (ppmv)
With feedback
Without feedback
Emission scenario: A2
(JAMSTEC/FRCGC)
Super-high resolution global and regional
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climate modeling (MRI/JMA* et Al.**
Modeling of a AGCM with a super-highhorizontal resolution of about 20 km (TL959)and 60 vertical levels (L60) in the atmosphere.
- The model is an unprecedented global atmosphere modelresolvable even the eye of a tropical cyclone for long-term run.
- Simulation experiments show reasonable results andprojection experiments were made through a time-slicemethod
Modeling of a cloud resolvable non-hydrostatic regional atmospheric
model with a resolution of a several kilometers in grid size.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------*: MRI/JMA = Meteorological Research Institute / Japan
Meteorological Agency**: Numerical Prediction Division (NPD)/JMA, Advanced Earth
Science and Technology Organization (AESTO) and JapanAerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)
C20C simulation SRES scenario projection
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C20C simulation SRES scenario projectionby MRI Medium resolution AOGCM (MRI-
CGCM2.3)
A1B
1860 1900 20002100
A2
B2B1
Commitment
Present: 1979-
1998
Future: 2080-
2099(nearly2xCO2)
(JMA/MRI/AESTO)
simulated typhoonnder the present climate
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nder the present climate
(JMA/MRI/AESTO)
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(JMA/MRI/AESTO)
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Blue: Jan.-Mar, Green: AprilJune, Red: July Sept,Blown: Oct Dec
(JMA/MRI/AESTO)
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(JMA/MRI/AESTO)
Distribution of change in hot/cold days in the future (JMA/MRI/AESTO)
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Research activities for AR5
with the updated Earth Simulator(ES2)
IPCC St t f th AR5
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(UNEP)
IPCC Structure for the AR5(2009)
WG(Mitigation)
Co-chairs
(3)ViceChairs(6)
InventoryTask Force
Co-chairs(2)
Members(12)
WG (Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability)
Co-chairs (2)
Vice Chairs (6)
TSU(Switzerla
nd)
TSU
(USA
TSU
Germany
TSU (Japan)
WG(Physical sciencebasis)
Co-chairs (2)Vice Chairs(6)
UNEP
IPCCPlenary Chair Vice Chairs(3)
WMO
IPCC Bureau
(31 members)
Changes!
IPCC/WG1/AR5 (t b l t d i 2013)
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IPCC/WG1/AR5(to be completed in 2013)Chapter Outline
Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
Chapter 7:Clouds and Aerosols Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global
to Regional Chapter 11:Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitmentsand Irreversibility
Chapter 13:Sea Level Change Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future
Regional Climate Change
Annexes including Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Utilization of
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Utilization of
the Updated Earth Simulator(ES2)
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5-year initiative (FY 2007-2011)by theMEXT(Ministry
of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology )
launched in April 2007
The Program is to follow-up and develop theKyo-sei
Project(FY 2002-2006)
The updatedEarth Simulator (ES2)
is utilized.
The Program intends tocontribute to the AR5.
Innovative Program of Climate ChangeInnovative Program of Climate Change
Projection for the 21st centuryProjection for the 21st century
(KAKUSHIN Program)(KAKUSHIN Program)
Cli t h j tiCli t h j ti
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Long-Term Global Change
Projection (~2300)
Climate change projectionClimate change projectionusing theusing theEarth SimulatorEarth Simulator((ES2ES2))
AdvancingClimate
Modeling
and Projection
Quantification
andreduction
of uncertainty
Application of
Regional
Projections
to Natural Disasters
Contribution to IPCC AR5
Scientific Basis for
Polic makers
Contribution to IPCC AR5
Scientific Basis for
Policymakers
Near-Term Climate Prediction
(20~30 years prediction)
Extreme Event Projection
(Typhoon, Heavy rain, etc.)
Cloud Modeling
Parameterization of
Marine Microphysics
KAKUSHIN Program andAR5 schedule
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April 2006: Third Basic Plan for Science and Technology(FY2006-FY2010) started
Feb. 2007: IPCC/WG1/AR4 completed
April ------: KAKUSHIN Program was launchedKAKUSHIN Program was launched
Sept. 2008: New IPCC Bureau elected for AR5
July 2009 Scoping meeting DraftingAR5 Nov. ------ Each WG plenary and IPCC Plenary Basic AR5 structure
fixed
Substantial projection experiments
April 2010: AR5 Writing team CLAs LAs REs ) for each WG beselected
Sept. ------: First meeting of WG1/LAs Informal Review Output analysis, paper submission and acceptance
May 2011 Second meeting ofWG1/LAs Expert Review
Dec. ------: Third meeting of WG1/LAs
Mar. 2012: End of KAKUSHIN ProgramEnd of KAKUSHIN Program Government/Expert Review
Aug. ------ Fourth meeting ofWG1/LAs GovernmentReview
Feb. 2013 WG1plenary Completion of WG1/AR 5Completion of WG1/AR 5
Sep. 2014:Sep. 2014: IPCC Plenary Completion of the whole AR5
KAKUSHINKAKUSHIN
Regionally detail projection of Indonesiani f ll h t th d f th 21 t t
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Increase in rainy seasonand
decrease in dry season
Need in adaptation ofwater use foragriculture
rainfall change at the end of the 21st century
Dec-Feb
Jun-Aug
(MRI/JMA/AESTO/MEXT)
Regionally detail Indian summer monsoon rainfall
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g y
20-km modelIMD observation
Orographic rainfallis successfullyreproduced
Rajendran and Kitoh (2008) Curr Sci
Observed global vegetation distribution
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Simulated global vegetation distribution
(JAMSTEC/FRCGC)
Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Cloud-resolving
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y g
Atmospheric Model (NICAM)by
Masaki Sato et. al
JAMSTEC, CCSR
Global atmospheric modelwith
its resolution up to 3.5km
Cloud or cloud cluster resolvable
Developed from 2000 by making
use of the Earth Simulator since2002
Advanced and unique model
Regionally detail climate modellingapplied to adaptation st dies
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applied to adaptation studies
WorkingGroup(Physical Science
Basis)
WorkingGroup (IAV*)
Woking
Group (Mitigation)
Synthesis Rep.
IPCCAssessment Reports (AR4 &AR5
Super-high resolution (20 km)
global atmospheric modelling
Some of major outcomes
Projection ofincreased strength
of Typhoons & Hurricanes (new finding)
Projection ofregionally detail extremeevents (heat waves, droughts, etc.) under
sufficient regional geographic effects
Projection of temporally detail behaviour
such as diurnal precipitation change
Earth
Simulator
SoundScientificBasis for
Adaptation
Measures
(* IAV = Impact,Adaptation andVulnerability)
Adaptation
Studies[WB funds, JICA funds]
Cooperation activities of the MRI groupCooperation activities of the MRI group(by Earth SimulatorEarth Simulator computed model outputscomputed model outputs for adaptation studiesfor adaptation studies)
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(byEarth SimulatorEarth Simulatorcomputed model outputscomputed model outputsfor adaptation studiesfor adaptation studies)
Cooperation under theCooperation under the JICAJICA(Japan International Cooperation Agency)(Japan International Cooperation Agency)fundsfunds
Adaptation studies in agriculture inArgentina:Argentina (three, 2008) Adaptation studies in monsoonAsia:Bangladesh, Indonesia,
Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam (one each, 2008 & 2009) Adaptation studies in peninsula de Yukatn, Mexico (three, 2009)
Cooperation under theCooperation under the World BankWorld Bank fundsfunds
Other collaborations with India, Korea, Thailand, USA, Switzerland,
Adaptation study in Coastal Zones ofCaribbean countries: Barbados
(one, 2005), Belize (one, 2005) Adaptation studies in Colombiancoastal areas, high mountain
ecosystems:Colombia (two, 2005; two, 2009)
Adaptation to Climate Impacts in the Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf ofMexico: Mexico (two, 2006)
Adaptation to Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes: Peru(one,2006; one, 2010?), Ecuador (one, 2006; One, 2009), Bolivia (one, 2006)
Amazon Dieback: Brazil (two, 2008)
Summary (on scientific aspects)
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Summary (on scientific aspects) Thanks to the development of observation and modeling, further advanced
scientific findings have been provided by the AR4.
Warming of the climate systemisunequivocal.
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since themid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenicgreenhouse gas concentrations.
Since much more climate models have become available for long-termexperiments, Best Estimate and Likely Range have been newly introducedin the assessment of climate change projections
Recent findings on thepositive feedback effect of carbon cycle are going tocause implications as an additional issue to address climate stability.
Research outcomes from the Earth Simulator (ES) considerably contributedto the AR4. Ongoing new research initiative, KAKUSHIN Program has beentrying to further promote projection studies by the updated ES.
Cooperation has been continuing for adaptation studies in variousdeveloping countries through model outcomes from the updated ES (ES2).