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Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
[email protected] Copyright ©
1
Optical components and networking
Optical components and networking
Michael S. LebbyGM & CTO
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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Capacity Issues & Challenges • Long Term – US Needs More R&D to Retain Leading Role in
Network Development & Innovation– Industry Structure has Changed Over Time
• Mid-Term – Escalating Consumer Bandwidth Demands– New Technologies to Scale Core, Edge & Datacenters– Broadband Ecosystem Highly Interwoven & Interdependent
• Short-Term – US Opportunity to Regain Leading Role – Continuing Investment is Critical
Sources: OIDA research, One Chip Photonics
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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How do we bridge this gap in the optoelectronics industry?
2 4 8 14 16Time (Yr)
Research Commercial R&D
Commercial Product Development& Manufacturing
Industry
Start of concept126 10
Relative Investment ($)
981015di004
Today
Industrial based R&D
Academia
ExpenseRisk
GAP
Less companies are profitable
OE manufacturing nearly all off-shore in Asia
Not fashionable to have corporate R&D labs anymore
Can we afford to do R&D + manf in USA today?
Sources: OIDA research
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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What has changed over the last decade?
• Market share– 1993 – Losing manufacturing to Japan– 2009 – Movement off-shore broadening and accelerating
– Competition from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China . . . – US companies moving operations off-shore– R&D following manufacturing
• Corporate infrastructure– 1993 – Vertically integrated– 2009 – Fragmented, down-sized, divested, more focused start-ups
• Technology platform– 1993 – Primarily III-V based– 2009 – Si has expanded into optoelectronics areas; higher precision growth,
dimensional tolerances and structures • Technology drivers
– 1993 – Corporate central labs– 2009 – Central labs no longer exist in industry
– University research– National laboratories
Optoelectronics is in deep trouble in USA
Sources: OIDA research
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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Photonics markets...are already global
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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Asia dominant in OE/photonics
• Asia owned 81%of global 2009 OEmarket of $353B USA
11%
Canada1%
Japan30%
Taiwan22%
China8%
Other Asia3%
South Korea17%
France1%
Germany1%
Netherlands3%
Italy0%
UK1%
Other Europe2%2009
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
North America & Europe minor players
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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Market share in 2021
• USA – Down 11% 8%
USA8%
Canada1%
Japan24%
Taiwan23%
China14%
Other Asia3%
South Korea18%
France1%
Germany3% Netherlands
3%
Italy0%
UK0%
Other Europe2%2021
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
Asia remains strong
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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OE/photonics market by major location
• By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4%• Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR 2010-2021)
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Reve
nues
($Bi
llion
)
Europe
Asia
North America
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
Asian infrastructure strongest
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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OE/photonics market by country
• By 2021, OE/photonicswill be a $500Bbusiness with many countries contributing…
• China grows quickly• US constant
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Reve
nue
($Bi
llion
)
Other Europe
UK
Italy
Netherlands
Germany
France
South Korea
Other Asia
China
Taiwan
Japan
Canada
USA
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
Design + manf off-shore
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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USA decade trends remain flat
• Optical fiber communications and components strong
• Photonic lighting CAGR 2010-21 of 12.2%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Reve
nue
($Bi
llion
)
Photonic lighting
Precision optical lens and laser
Optical fiber comm
Optical storage
Optical I/O devices
Flat panel displays
Optical components
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
USA exporting photonics jobs?
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Networks must address scaling...
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle
• Social lifestyle personal lifestyle
Before Computer centric Experts level Data exchange
Today Network centric Trained level Archieval/access
Future User centric Pedestrian level Knowledgeable
Source: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT
Lifestyle drives PAN BAN
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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Social networking user growth is driving bandwidth, datacenters
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09
450M
When will the trend slow down?
500M
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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from Exa to Zetta-bytes…
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism
Only 44 Exabytes/month in 2012
Driven by consumer internet…
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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The challenge of network scaling in
the core
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The challenges…
• Network interface rates will reach 10 Tbps – Estimates range for 1Tbps in 2015 and up to 10Tbps in 2020
• Network traffic growth is outstripping system capacity growth– System deployments will accelerate strongly in the coming years– System capacity will become the most important factor
• Simple extrapolation of current methods will not meet the need– Progress needed on all fronts (electronics and photonics)
simultaneously• Market for core based systems will be robust
Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
Driven by consumer internet…
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Scaling the core of the network…
• We know (or severely suspect)– Global system capacity will be important in the next decade
• And we are not keeping up here in the US… – Traffic growth will outstrip capacity growth– Volumes will be large and growing (internet utility users)– New photonics and electronics technologies are critically needed
• We are worried that extreme choking (congestion, traffic-jams) will mean consumers will pay more for the data they use…
• $/bit metrics are here to stay…
Limit how we utilize the internet…
Sources: OIDA research
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Translucent Inc
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System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)
• 2010-2030 forecast trends
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gb
/s
Year
TDM Research
WDM Research
TDM Commercial
WDM Commercial
Total Traffic
Gap???
Will traffic >> capacity???
Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
1Tbps
10Tbps
1Pbps
Will we fill the fiber optic pipes?
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)
• 2010-2030 forecast trends
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gb
/s
Year
TDM Research
WDM Research
TDM Commercial
WDM Commercial
Total Traffic
Will the price stop us from down loading data?
Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
1Tbps
10Tbps
1Pbps
Carriers will charge $/bit to slow us down…
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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System evolution…
1990s• 2.5-10 Gbps
channel rate• 8,16, 40
Channels• 20-160 Gbps
Capacity• SE = .025-.05
History
2000• 10 Gbps
channel rate• 100 Channels• 1 Tbps
Capacity• SE = 0.2
History
2010 100 Gbps
channel rate 100
Channels 10 Tbps
Capacity SE = 2.0
Near Future
2015 1 Tbps ??
channel rate 100 Channels 50 Tbps
Capacity ?? SE = 20 ??
R&D Needed
SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing
Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
2020 4 Tbps ??
channel rate 200 Channels 500 Tbps ??
Capacity SE >50 ??
R&D Critically Needed
Even with 2015 target, traffic growth will exceed capacity growth by a factor of 10…
Asia strong in network design…
Challenge is to find 10Tbps technology
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Networks must address energy...
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Evolve architecture quickly… (while traffic CAGR >50%)
• IP over DWDM transport:– Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized equipment– Maximize architecture and equipment scalability
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism
Challenge: contain energy footprint
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Cost for power and cooling in data centers
• Year 2000– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is
the primary goal, while the infrastructure to support it is assumed ready
• Year 2006– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is a
given but the infrastructure to support deployment is a limited factor
• Year 2010– Three cooling challenges
• System, rack, data center• Year 2021
– Green designs imperative…
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC
Power and cooling spending out of control…
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Broadband technology
• Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Denmar
k
Nether
lands
Norway
Switzer
land
Icela
nd
Sweden
Korea
Finlan
d
Luxe
mbo
urg
Canada
United K
ingdom
Belgium
Franc
e
Germ
any
United S
tate
s
Austra
lia
Japa
n
Austri
a
New Zea
land
Spain
Irelan
dIta
ly
Czech
Rep
ublic
Hungar
y
Portu
gal
Greec
e
Poland
Slovak R
epub
lic
Turke
y
Mex
ico
Su
bs
cri
be
rs Other
Fibre/LAN
Cable
DSL
Source: OECD
What is the effect if graph is mostly red?
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Architecture evolution – FTTH access
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, Lange, Deutsche Telekom AG
Power consumption expected to rise fast…
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Photonics will become
integrated...
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Moore’s Law photonics to follow?
Sources: UCSB, OIDA Photonics Integration Forum, Intel
CMOS very successful can we learn?
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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PIC trends over 3 decades
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Co
mp
on
en
t c
ou
nt
COBRA/35P
Philips
Opto+
Lucent
NTT
Infinera
FoundryFocal planeFocal plane
An
alo
g
Nanophotonic Integration Technology
GenericIntegration Technology
Dig
ital
Source: Meint Smit, TU/e OIDA forum Oct 2008
InP-Membrane on Silicon (IMOS)III-V on silicon (3-5OS)
Photonics is expected to become digital…
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Integrated photonics over 4 decades…
Courtesy of R. Nagarajan & M. Smit (LEOS Newsletter, 2007)
1. S.E. Miller, 19692. I. Hayashi, 19703. J. Shibata, 19844. O. Wada, 19865. T. Koch, 19916. M. Zirngibl, 19957. C. Steenbergen, 19968. C. Herben, 19999. L. Coldren, 200210. Y. Yoshikuni, 200211. Y. Suzaki, 200212. M. Masanovic, 200313. ASIP/III-V, 200414. R. Nagarajan, 200515. R. Nagarajan, 200616. M. Kato, 200717. R. Nagarajan, 2007
Not shown (EDG-WDM):
V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel dynamic equalizer, 2002;V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel power monitor, 2003;A. Densmore, 32-channel receiver, 2005;V. Tolstikhin, 3-channel ONU triplexer, 2005
Sources: OneChip Photonics; Valery Tolstikhin
1
10
1000
Poised for big impact in fiber comms
100
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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New optical technologies for the edge
• Consumer bandwidth demands are the driving force – Applications, architectures, services, content distribution
• Photonic Integrated Circuits– Lower costs– Use less space– Consume less power– Better performance
• FTTH Delivers– Very high bandwidth– Network efficiencies– Future proof technology
Source: OneChip Photonics
PICs are the economical solution…
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Photonic integrated circuits save power
• Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption in communications and computing– Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical communications
links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced cooling requirements and improved cooling capability
– Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures employing optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory will lead to higher flops/W
Sources: Lightwire, IBM
Tighter integration leads to lower power
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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What do we need to do technically?
• Even more sophisticated modulation formats– Current systems at 40 Gbps use DPSK– Coming systems will be Polarization Multiplexed QPSK with coherent
detection– Next: 16QAM? Multi-ring constellations?
• More optical bandwidth– Beyond C+L band
• Higher power fibers• Photonic integrated circuits
– Game-changer for the edge (FTTH)• New laser diode/modulator schemes maybe non
semiconductor ????
If we don’t act this will take place in Asia…
US is in danger of losing leadership in OE R&D
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Data-centers need to scale also...
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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The Ethernet ecosystem evolves
Research, Education and Government Facilities
ResearchNetworks
Broadband Access
Data Centers and Enterprise
EnterpriseNetworks
Content Providers
ContentNetworks
Internet BackboneNetworks
Internet BackboneNetworks
Internet eXchange andInterconnection Points
BroadbandAccess Networks
Source: J. D/Ambrosia, Force10 Networks
Datacenters high speed intersections
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Why higher speed Ethernet?
Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhere
Increased # of users
Increased accessrates and methods
Increased services++ =
As demonstrated by the number of ISPs: Comcast, AOL, YahooBB, NTT, Cox, EasyNet, Rogers, BT, ...
EFM, xDSL, WiMax, xPON, Cable, WiFi,3G/4G…
YouTube, BitTorrent, VOD, Facebook, Kazaa, Netflix, iTunes, 2nd life, Gaming…
Source: IEEE 802.3 HSSG Tutorial, Nov 2007.
Bandwidth explosioneverywhere
Higher demands on the network
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Demand outpacing equipment development
2006 2008
2Tb
10Tb
2010
Switch/router R&D trend
Internet datacenterdemand
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09
Data-centers are ‘under pressure’
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Future data-center evolution…
64 x 1Tb linksor
640 x 100GE links
160 x 100GE linkswith 5x100GE LAGs
16Tb/switch
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09
400G+ solutions are needed
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Calibration with broadband leader
(Japan)
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Expansion of Broadband Traffic Amount in Japan (Oct 2009)
Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
10-1
1
10
102
103
Inte
rnet
Tra
ffic (
Gbp
s)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20081997 19981999 2000 2001
Peak Traffic of domestic major IX*1
Average Traffic of domestic major IX*1
Broadband service subscriber’stotal traffic amount (Estimate)
*1 domestic major Internet eXchanges: NSPIXP, JPIX & JPNAP
2009
104
30% increase per year
Internet traffic in Japan Tbps
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Broadband Services in Japan (Oct 2009)
Year
Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar.Mar.2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
0
5
10
15
20
25
35N
umbe
r of
Sub
scrib
ers
(mill
ion)
2000 2001Mar. Mar.
Targetof NTT@2010
30
Population : 128 million in Japan (2005)Households : 49 million
totalFTTHDSLCATV
Fiber based broadband obvious
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
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Japan’s R&D example 10Tbps• Development of next-generation high-efficiency network
device technology– The goal of this project is to increase the speed and efficiency of
router switches and storage area networks for the purpose of energy conservation.
• Development of device technology to create edge routers capable of over 10Tbps
• Development of low-power-consumption device technology with a transmission capacity of 16Gbps on LAN-SAN, and demonstration of networks using such technology
• As noted by OITDA – Japanese trade association (as per OIDA in Washington DC), October 2009
Japan aggressive on R&D…
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
Earth Abundant Materials Technology.
Translucent Inc
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22-Jul-10, Slide prepared by David Williams
Michael Lebby, PhD MBA DEng CEngGeneral Manager & Chief Technology Officer
TranslucentEarth Abundant Materials Technology
Translucent Inc952 Commercial St
Palo Alto, CA94303
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