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Released on April 12, 2017
National Disaster Risk Management
Commission (NDRMC),
Early Warning and Emergency
Response Directorate
This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Emergency
Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning
and food security information.
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Early Warning and Response Analysis
April, 2017
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
1 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
Contents
Acronyms ......................................................................................................................................................... 2
Early Warning and Response Summary for March, 2017 .............................................................................. 3
Weather Condition ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 4
Crop and Livestock Condition ……………………………….………………………………………………. 6
Market Condition……………………………………………………………………..…………….…………. 7
Nutrition Condition ………………………………………………………………..…………….…………. 8
Appendix 1 ..................................................................................................................................................... 10
Appendix 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 11
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
2 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
ACRONYMS:
CHD: Child Health Day
CPI: Consumer Price Index
CSA: Central Statistical Agency
DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food
Security Sector
EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise
EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research
Institute
ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit
FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization
FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health
GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition
HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund
IDDR: International Day for Disaster Reduction
IMC: International Medical Corps
ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone
MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition
NMA: National Meteorological Agency
OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program
PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women
SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition
TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit
TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food
TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program
WFP: World Food Programme
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
3 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY
The anticipated near normal rainfall during the month of April 2017 over Oromiya (East and
West Walesa, Jima Ilu Ababora, North and West Shewa, West and East Harargie, Arsi Bale
Borena and Guji), Benishangul Gumuz, Amara(North and South Wello, West and East Gojam,
the surrounding areas of Bahir Dar, Agewawi, North and South Gonder), Afar ( Zone 3,4 and 5),
Most zones of Tigray, SNNPR(Hadiya, Guragie, Sidama, Kefa, Bench Maji, Wolayta, South
Omo and Segen Peoples) and Somali Region would have positive contribution for the existing
Belg season's agricultural activities. Moreover it would ease the persisted dry condition and have
also positive contribution for the improvement of pasture and drinking water in the pastoral
areas. Therefore, the concerned personnel should take proper measure ahead of time to utilize the
expected favorable moisture condition efficiently.
The expected flash flood in relation to the strength of weather systems might have negative
impact in some localities. Thus the concerned personnel should take appropriate measures ahead
of time in order to avoid damages due to flash flood particularly over the low-lying areas and in
areas where the soils have low peculation capacity
In accordance with the ENCU report nationally; 30, 156 admitted with 89% reporting rate in
March 2017. This is the highest admission since April 2016 and similar with that of March 2016.
This increased admission is reported from Somali, Oromia and SNNPR. However, the admission
in Afar, Amhara and Tigrai is declined in March compared with February.
In accordance with the FEWS NET Ethiopia market analysis (April 2017) even though Western
surplus maize producing areas of the country received near normal production during Meher
2016, below average production in most parts of SNNPR and central Oromia and persistent
increased in demand for maize as staple food constrained market supply in most parts of the
country, in particular in areas where maize is the major staple food. On the other hand, sorghum
supply in the northeastern parts of the country rated as normal following normal to above normal
harvest obtained in Meher 2016.
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
4 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
I. Weather Condition
1. Past Weather assessment (April 2017)
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Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of
April 2017
Source: NMA
During the month of April 2017, a few areas of
northwestern parts of SNNPR and pocket areas of
western Orommiya exhibited falls greater than 300
mm. A few areas of northwestern and western parts of
SNNPR received falls ranging from 200 – 300 mm.
Some areas of western Amhara, parts of western and
eastern Oromiya, southeastern tip of Benishangul
Gumuz, eastern half of Gambela and most parts of
SNNPR experienced falls ranging from 100 – 200 mm.
Parts of central, northwestern and western Amhara,
parts of western, eastern and central Oromiya, parts of
eastern Benishangul Gumuz, western half of Gambala,
parts of western Afar and most parts of Somali
experienced falls ranging from 50 – 100 mm. Most
parts of Tigray, most parts of Amhara, parts of central
and eastern of Oromiya, parts of Benishangul Gumuz
and parts of northern Afar, experienced falls ranging
from 25 - 50 mm. Western and northeastern parts of
Tigray, northwestern margin of Amhara, most parts of
Afar, northwestern Benishangul Gumuz, parts of
northern and southern Somali received falls ranging
from 5 - 25 mm. There was little or no rainfall over
northern Somali and eastern Afar.
Some areas reported heavy falls in a rainy day like
Maji(37.7 mm) Algie(40.2 mm), Dolo Mana (46.6
mm), Jinka(42.6 mm), Masha(42.4 mm and 44.0
mm), Chercher (45.2 mm), Dugda(46.2 mm),
Hawasa(47.3 mm), Nekemte(49.8 mm), Limu
Genet(55.5 mm), Gudo Meskel (54.0 mm),
Debresina(59.4 mm), Arba Minch(61.3 mm), Kibre
Mengist(62.0 mm) and Mirab Abaya(70.2 mm)
during the month of April 2017.
Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for April
2017
Source: NMA
As indicated in map 2, most parts of western half of
Ethiopia experienced normal to above normal rainfall.
Below normal rainfall has been observed over eastern
parts of Tigray, most parts of Afar, eastern half of
Amhara, southern, central and eastern Oromiya, eastern
half of SNNPR and most parts of Somali.
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
5 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
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Map 3: Number of Rainy days for the month April
2017
Source: NMA
A few areas of northwestern and western Oromiya
received falls greater than 20 rainy days. Western
half of SNNPR, parts of western Oromiya and
southeastern tip of Benishangul Gumuz received falls
in 15 -20 rainy days. A few parts of northwestern
Amhara, parts of western and central Oromiya, parts
of eastern Benishangul Gumuz, eastern Gambela and
southern highlands of Oromiya received falls in 10 -
15 rainy days. Eastern half of Gambela, most parts of
western half Benishangul Gumuz, most parts of
western half of Amhara, some areas of central,
southern and eastern Oromiya including most parts of
Somali received falls in 5 -10 rainy days. Therefore,
the observed good distribution of rainfall could have
positive impact on season’s agricultural activities in
the above-mentioned areas. Besides, it could favor
the availability of pasture and drinking water over the
lowlands of southern, southeastern and southwestern
parts of the country. The rest of the country received
falls in less than 5 rainy days; however though the
numbers of rainy days are minimal it could have
positive contribution for the early season’s
agricultural activities of the coming Kiremt season.
2. Weather outlook and possible impact for the
coming month/May 1-31, 2017
Under normal circumstance the Belg rain producing
systems will relatively lose their strength over Belg
producing areas of the country towards the second half
of the month of May. However, in accordance with the
National Meteorological Agency weather/climate
outlook during the upcoming May 2017 the weather
systems will have relatively better strength during the
first half of the month while a gradual decrease in
rainfall amount and distribution towards the second half
of the month over the southeastern , eastern and
northeastern parts of the country.
In general during the coming month/May 2017 near
normal rainfall with a chance of heavy falls at places is
anticipated over Oromiya (East and West Welega, Jima
Ilu Ababora, North and West Shewa, West and East
Harargie, Arsi Bale Borena and Guji), Benishangul
Gumuz, Amara(North and South Wello, West and East
Gojam, the surrounding areas of Bahir Dar, Agewawi,
North and South Gonder), Afar ( Zone 3,4 and 5), Most
zones of Tigray, SNNPR(Hadiya, Guragie, Sidama,
Kefa, Bench Maji, Wolayta, South Omo and Segen
Peoples) and Somali Region. Moreover, in relation to
the strength of weather systems flash flood is likely in
some areas of the above mention areas. Thus the
concerned personnel should take appropriate measures
ahead of time in order to avoid damages due to flash
flood particularly over the low-lying areas and in areas
where the soils have low peculation capacity.
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
6 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
II. Crop and Livestock condition based on
the weekly Regional Situation Report
1. Crop condition
1.1 Season’s Agricultural Activities and
Phenological Stages of the crop by Region
SNNPR
The late sown long cycle crops are at early vegetative
stage while the timely sown crops were at late
vegetative stage in Belg growing areas of SNNPR.
From the planed Belg crop land coverage about 40%
of land covered by different types of crops in the
same region.
Oromiya
Crops are at emergency to early vegetative stage in
West Arsi and Arsi Zones. Land preparation for the
long cycle crops was underway in most parts of the
region.
Amhara
Belg crops are at early vegetative stage in Belg
growing areas of the Region. From the planed Belg
crop land coverage 82% of the land covered by
different types of crops.
Afar
Land preparation for Meher season has been started
in Zone 2(Abala, Qoneba, Dalol, Berhale and some
areas of Megale) by using moisture comes from the
highlands of neighboring Tigray Region.
Harari
Land Preparation started for Meher crops in the
region.
Dire Dawa
Land preparation for Meher crops has been going on in
most parts of the administrative region and some areas
covered by Meher crops in some localities.
Benishangul Gumuz
Land preparation for long cycle crops has been started
in the region during the month of April 2017
Tigray
Land preparation has been started in Belg growing
areas.
1.2 Crop Pest and Diseases conditions
SNNPR
Out break and spread of Fall Armyworm in the whole of
Kembata Tenbaro Zone(51 Kebeles), Bench Maji (216
Kebeles), Gamo Gofa (Melkoza, Ayida, Kemba,
Oubadebretshay, Zala, Denba Gofa, Bonke, Daramalo
and Arba Minch), Dawuro(77 Kebeles), Sheka(3
Weredas), Dmot Pulusa(23 Kebeles), Bloso Sore (11
Kebes), Dugna Fango (9 Kebeles), Humbo(4 Kebeles),
Damot Gale (18 Kebeles), Hadiya (East Bedewaco 26
Kebeles, West Bedewaco 22 Kebeles and Shone 6 rural
Kebeles), South Omo(North Ari, South Ari, Selamago
and Male 37 Kebeles in total), Segen Peoples (Ale
Weredas 7 Kebeles, Konta Wereda 43 Kebeles) and
Basketo Wereda (31 Kebeles). However the spread of
pest was under control by effective protection
measures.
Oromiya
Outbreak of Armyworm has been reported from Jima
zone (14 Woredas) and infestation of American
Bollworm was reported in East Wellega Zone Kenba
Woreda.
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
7 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
2. Livestock Situation
2.1 Livestock body condition
According to the Regional Bureau report a decrease
in livestock body condition has been observed in
some parts of Oromiya (lowlands of Guji and Bale,
West Shewa, most parts of Borena, North ShewaZone
(Degem and Debre Libanos),West Harargie(9
Weredas) and West Arsi(Shala, Sirao, Shashemene
and Arsi Negele) SNNPR (Lokabaya, Boricha,
lowlands of Gamo Gofa, Mierab Abaya, Boreda,
Kucha Daramalo and lowlands of Amaro, Burji,
Konso and Derashe special Woredas), most parts of
Afar, Somali (in nine zones) and lowlands of Harari.
On the other hand the livestock body condition was
reported in a good shape still in Tigray, Gambela,
Benishangul Gumuz and Dire Dawa.
2.2 Shortage of Pasture and Drinking Water
Shortage of pasture and drinking water has been
reported in some areas of Oromiya (lowlands of Guji
and Bale , West Shewa, most parts of Borena , North
ShewaZone (Degem and Debre Libanos),West
Harargie(9 Weredas) and West Arsi(Shala, Sirao,
Shashemene and Arsi Negele); SNNPR (lowlands of
South Omo(Male, Benatsemai and Hamer), Segen
Peoples (all Weredas), Gamo Gofa (Kemba, Zala,
Oubadebretshay, Boreda, Daramalo, Bonke and
Kucha), Wolayita Zone(Kindo Koyisha, Ofa Humbo
and Damote Sore), Sidama Zone(Loka Abaya and
Borcha), Guragie Zone(Mareko, Mihur, Aklil, Gumer
and Eiza Wereda/7 Kebeles) and Silte Zone; Amhara
(Oromiya Zone/Bati and Artuma Fursi, North
Wollo/Raya Kobo, Lasta and Dawunt/ lowlands of
Waghemra and South Wollo) Gambela(Nuwer Zone)
Afar (In most Weredas); Harari/ lowlands of 8
Kebeles/ and Benishangul Gumuz(lowlands of
Kurmuk, Sherkole and Guba Wereda. As a result
water and animal feed rationing was going on in the
above mentioned areas.
2.3 Livestock pest and Disease
The outbreak of CBPP and CCPP has been observed in
Borena Zone(Iwayu, Das, Gomly, Yabelo, Dilo and
Wochi Woredas. Moreover livestock skin disease,
CBPP, CCPP, Blackleg, FMD and other opportunistic
diseases has been observed Somali Region(Korahe,
Jarar and Dolo) due to the erratic nature of rainfall
observed during the month.
3. Market Condition
Persistent Increase in Maize Price Reported in
Many Markets
Although Western surplus maize producing areas of the
country received near normal production during Meher
2016, below average production in most parts of
SNNPR and central Oromia and persistent increased in
demand for maize as staple food constrained market
supply in most parts of the country, in particular in
areas where maize is the major staple food. On the
other hand, sorghum supply in the northeastern parts of
the country rated as normal following normal to above
normal harvest obtained in Meher 2016.
Staple food prices are substantially rising the markets in
Somali Region and other southern pastoral areas where
prevailing current drought stimulated exceedingly high
demand. As per price data from zonal/woreda offices of
DPP, In Gode market sorghum and maize price in April
2017 has increased by 43 and 69 percent from last year
(April 2016) respectively. Comparing with the last five-
year average in the same market, recorded price
increases are 49 percent for sorghum and 43 percent for
maize.
Price of maize, which is one of the main staple in most
parts of the country continue to display a continuous
increase on a higher in almost all parts of the country.
According to data from woreda DPP offices, the
recorded price increase in April 2017 compared to last
year (April 2016) is 31 percent in Shashemene and 20
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
8 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
percent in Wenago markets. Price of maize also
exhibited substantial increase from last five-year
average and similar data source revealed 34 and 23
percent increase in Shashemene and Wenago
markets respectively. (See Graph)
Source: Woreda DPP office
On the other hand, price of sorghum in the north-
eastern markets is showing staple trend in the recent
months and current prices are lower than last year and
long-term averages. For instance, in Woldia market in
North Wello zone (Amhara), local sorghum price in
April 2017 is lower by 30 percent from both April
2016 and last five-year average for the month of
April.
Livestock prices are on a significant rise in the north-
eastern parts of the country for both cattle and shoats
which is mainly linked with enhanced feed
availability and thereby improved body condition and
also increased in seasonal demand for ox following
an extensive start of land preparation. Data from
woreda DPP offices revealed that ox price in Sekota
market in Waghimra zone in April 2017 showed 24
percent increase from April 2016. Likewise, goat price
in Woldia market is higher by 44 percent from April
2016 and 66 percent from last five-year average.
Subsequently, Terms of Trade (ToT) of shoat for
sorghum is well in favor of the shoat sellers to improve
the purchasing power and food access.
On the contrary, drought stricken parts of southern
pastoral are suffering deteriorated livestock body
condition and lower price. As per the data from the
woreda DPP offices, shoat prices in Gode market in
April 2017 is lower by 50 percent from last year and 35
percent from last five-year average.
4. Nutrition Condition
Nationally; 30, 156 admitted with 89% reporting rate
in March 2017. This is the highest admission since
April 2016 and similar with that of March 2016. This
increased admission is reported from Somali, Oromia
and SNNPR. However, the admission in Afar,
Amhara and Tigrai is declined in March compared
with February.
Maize price, Shashemene Market, Oromia
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
9 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
In Somali region, New admissions to TFP rose from
7096 in February to 7835,619 in March (10%). The
February and March SAM admissions are the highest
admission compared with past five years. Worst
affected zones of Jarar, Doolo, Korahe, Errer, Liben
and Shabelle.
MAM update
MAM response in 177 out of 192 P1 Woredas by
WFP covering 177 Woredas with the remaining 15
Woredas being covered by USAID/OFDA.
USAID/OFDA/FFP in total supports MAM
treatment in 18 Woredas, 3 are P2 in Somali region
(Somali – 10 Woredas, Tigray – 4 Woredas and
Amhara – 4 Woredas) through NGOs. There is still
a significant gap in terms of TSF coverage in P2
Woredas with 122 Woredas not having MAM
treatment services. In Somali region, different
modalities to improve access to MAM services
continue. Super cereal plus distributed to 35% of
population in 52 Woredas with distribution of relief
food. WFP plans to target 338,000 individuals
during this BSFP allocation. WFP has also signed
Field Level Agreements with 3 NGOs (SCI, ACF
and IRE) in Somali region to implement TSF.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Report
ing R
ate
Ad
mis
sio
n
ADMISSION Nb of TFP Mortality rate %
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
10 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
Appendix 1
NDVI Picture
As can be seen from the recent NDIV picture (METEOSAT 21 – 30 April 2017) below to much below normal
vegetation greenness has been observed over drought affected areas of the country like Oromiya (most parts of
Borena, parts of Guji, most parts of Bale, parts of East and West Haragie, most parts of Arsi and West Arsi),
SNNPR(most parts of South Omo, southern parts of Bench Maji, most parts of Gamo Gofa, Segen Peoples
and Wolayita, eastern half of Dawuro, most parts of Kembata Tebaro, Silte and Guragie) and most parts of
southern, southeastern and eastern parts of Somali.
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
11 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017
Appendix 2