Ealing 14-19 Conference

November 2014

Current policy picture

• Policy momentum building towards 2015 election, more tactical than visionary at this stage

• The economy still the story but differing perceptions• For education: new Government faces, same path but lighter tread;

Opposition building case around early years, qualified profession and vocational reform

• Strengthening the skills pipeline an essential feature in both Parties’ economic plans; voc ‘arms’ race emerging

• Mutual support too for core curriculum, school standards, apprenticeships, high-level progression and local determinism

• Less agreement around 14-19 curriculum, school brands, college models and HE strategy

• General sense is more of the same, no ‘97 or 2010 gear shift• Five current issues

– Qualification reform– Performance measures and accountability– System reform– Funding outlook– Election impact

1. Qualification reform. AcademicCurrent issues

– Lessons from summer 2014 results– Impact of new GCSE grading scale– Use of practical assessment– Future of AS– Space for ‘true grit’– Levels of confidence in the system

Latest political positions•Conservative

– Commitment to see through current reforms– Continued focus on English and maths– Reliance on accountability regime to monitor system performance– Further immediate change not planned

•Labour– Promise to reverse AS changes– Big focus on use of qualified teachers– Support for English and maths, possible further work on core curriculum

•Lib-Dems– Parental guarantee on minimum core curriculum and use of qualified teachers

•The big question– How to manage qualification reform in the future

1. Qualification reform. VocationalCurrent Issues•Provision for young people especially the low-skilled•Impact of Eng/maths requirements and status of alternatives•Emerging role for local commissioning•Impact of apprenticeship developments on youth market•Potential for further reform post 2015

Latest political positions•Conservative

– 14-19: reduction in qual volume, clearer criteria, defined routes per Wolf, emphasis on Eng/maths, use of Tech Bacc measure

– 19+: increasing reliance on employer ownership, clearer rationale for approved quals, apprenticeship reform, local growth arrangements

•Labour– 14-19: development of 14-19 National Bacc framework, stronger focus on

guidance and support, LEP engagement– 19+: strong support for employer partnerships, creation of all-through voc

ladder, shift towards local commissioning, apprenticeship reform

•The big question– How to raise perceptions/status of vocational learning

2. Accountability. Current Position• Mix of sharper measures, clearer information, defined outcomes• Reforms to performance tables:

– Reduction in volume, defined criteria for entitled quals– Emphasis on learner progression at all stages– Recognition of other dimensions

• Reforms to inspection arrangements– Separate reporting of sixth-form provision– Revisions to 2014/15 arrangements for schools– Revisions to 2014/15 arrangements for FE– Review of future inspection approach

• Growth of data sets– Development of Government data portals, school performance to wage stats– Exam system ‘intelligence’– Lesson observation data

• Teacher accountability– New prof standards for teachers, heads, classroom assistants and FE– Political enthusiasm for qualified/licensed teachers

• ‘Trip Adviser’ model• Ofsted’s Learner Voice, Employer Voice and Data Dashboards• Provider websites, social media channels• Emergence of the informed consumer

2. Summary Picture Current issues•Modelling work for Progress 8

•Development of robust destination data

•Emergence of the dual professional

•Use of outcome measures especially in FE

•Impact of changes on provider performance levels

•Alternative performance tables

•Role of Ofsted

Latest political positions•Conservatives

– Pushing ahead with introduction of changes from 2016, keen for more forensic system, see governors as having a key challenge role, RSC adopting more strategic role

•Labour

– Keen to see greater ‘consumer’ role though this not yet defined, focusing emphasis on teacher quality and training, tacit support for a College for Teaching, see regional DSS role as critical, working with LAs

•The big question– How to get the balance right between a self-improving and an externally

accountable system

3. Schools• ‘78% of schools good or better but great gaps in performance.’ Ofsted • Significant diversification of school system but issues around costs,

performance and accountability• Academy blueprint likely to remain, cross Party consensus behind UTCs but

Free School model vulnerable• Labour currently pledging to extend Academy freedoms to all schools (with

new accountabilities and requirements to partner) but not supporting more Free Schools

• Conservatives devolving oversight of school system to RSCs, Labour plumping for Directors of School Standards

• LA traditional functions continuing, big challenges currently over school places and school performance, many other services now commissioned

• Teachers granted new freedoms but suffering change fatigue. Gov shifting training to schools, Labour pitching for a fully qualified/updated profession

• Latest political positions:– Conservatives: appointment of RSCs (Gove, May,) support for Free Schools

(Morgan, Oct,) re-consider careers provision (Morgan, Oct,) free up schools and teachers (Cameron, Oct)

– Labour: Taskforce Report on 14-19 provision (March 2014,) Blunkett Report on managing the school system (April,) end Free Schools programme, establish Parent-Led Academies and Ofsted inspection of Academy chains (Hunt, Aug,) roll out London Challenge, transform the voc ed system (Hunt, Sept)

3. FE• Hugely diverse sector, poorly understood but vital provider of skills training from disaffected 14+ yr olds to high-

level prof updating• A sector covering 390+ colleges teaching 2m adults, 850,000 16-18 yr olds + 496 training providers with brand

extended into SFC, UTC• Government policy aimed at freeing up colleges and college system to enable better responsiveness to

market/learner needs under the 2Rs banner, pushing for centre of excellence model• Number of change mechanisms being used including: funding (24+loans,) accountability (progression, destination,

earnings) and structural (elite tier, centres of excellence, social enterprises)• Labour keen to re-focus sector around essential skills training with fully qualified staff and accredited provider

status (ITEs) delivering employer derived training• Latest political positions:

– Conservatives: Response on FELTAG (June,) bids to set up National Colleges (June,) consultation on extending loan system and bringing HNs under SFA (June,) Workforce Strategy (July,) consultation on new success measures (Aug,) bids to set up Voc Ed Research Centre (Sept,) Boles speech/sector update (Nov)

– Labour: support for ITEs, Tech Bacc and Tech degrees, reformed apprenticeship system (Conf speeches Sept,) Hunt AoC speech (Nov)

– Other: FE Commissioner’s Report (Nov,) AoC 2015 Manifesto (Nov,) OECD Skills report (Nov)

3. HE• Globally important sector going through significant period of

transformation as a result of significant funding (fees,) strategic (private, global,) learning (online, p/t) and structural (different market, different student relationship) changes

• Government attempt to put funding on sustainable footing and students at the heart of the system has seen limited change to student numbers and market but significant concerns emerge about long-term funding viability and future of some areas of provision

• Demand remaining high, graduate premium remaining valuable, graduate market starting to pick up but sense that traditional pathways and traditional learning models beginning to need to change

• Labour keen on high-level voc route, 2 yr degree programmes, employer sponsorships, stronger regulation and student protections, positioning reform of fee system within cost of living context, initial principles established, major announcement later

• Latest political positions:– Conservatives: announcement on lifting student numbers cap (Dec 2013,) no

immediate increase in fee levels (Clark Sept,) Government response on loans (Nov)

– Labour: Denham proposals on fees (Jan 2014,) Miliband announcement on tech degrees (July 2014,) Byrne Paper on new ‘earn while you learn’ model (Aug)

– Other: NUS and HE Commission reports on fees and funding (Nov)

4. Funding. Current developments• Schools

– For 2015/16 minimum funding levels (£2845 primary - £4529 secondary) + locally applied characteristics; all LAs to delegate minimum 80%

– Increasing shift towards pupil-determined model using defined factors of AWPU, deprivation, prior attainment, LAC, EAL

– Any changes will only follow 2016/17 SR

– Key issues likely to include real terms protections, MFG, pupil premium and future national formula and more widely Free School funding, capital, salary/pension and places costs

• 16-19– 3% fall in overall budget for 2014/15 to £7.18bn

– National funding rate remaining at £4000 but (capped) cut for f/t 18 yr olds

– Funding neutral model apart from English and maths

– Allocations provided for apprenticeships, traineeships, High Needs, but discretionary bursaries under review, ‘free school’ meals and increased pension contributions adding to pressures

• Apprenticeships– Total budget currently of £1.5bn (£800m for 16-18, £764m for 19+) but subject to intervening

policies eg higher apps, AGE

– Funding attached to each element in the framework so varies by sector, level, age

– Piloting new co-investment model this autumn, additional payments for certain groups

• FE/Skills– 19% fall over 3 yrs to £4.13bn

– Continued transition towards simplified, demand-led system defined by credit rather than glh

– Gradual shift away from state grants towards fee loans and employer investment

– Next Funding Statement due Dec 2014, possible update on issues such as: learner eligibility; costings of online learning; prioritisation of key sectors; alignment to performance

5. Election 2015. The timeline

• Local Council and European elections (May 2014)• Big ticket Manifesto policy submissions (June 2014) • Cabinet re-shuffle (July 2014)• Summer offensive (August 2014)• Party Conference season (Sept-Oct 2014)• Scottish referendum (Sept 2014)• Clacton by-election (Oct 2014)• Rochester by-election (Nov 2014)• Draft proposals on Union issues (Nov 2014)• Chancellor’s Autumn Statement (Dec 2014)• Prime Minister’s speech on immigration (Dec 2014)• Parliament returns (Jan 2015)• Chancellor’s Final Budget (March 2015)• Parliament dissolved (March 2015)• Manifestos launched and Leaders’ TV Debates (April 2015)• Polling Day (May 7 2015)

(Note: important staging posts for education system include: Ofsted’s Annual Report, school performance tables, UCAS’s 2014 University entry Summary, the Government’s Progress Report on its Industrial (skills) Strategy)

5. Election 2015. Who’ll win?• Voting intentions and leadership ratings have remained static for some

time• Current (early Nov) voting intentions: Labour 34%, Cons 31%, Lib-Dems

6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7% (Source: YouGov)• “We’re into dead heat territory” YouGov• Economy the key factor but NHS, immigration, poverty/inequality, security

rated as top current concerns; education lower order issue• Essentially a ‘trust’ election: who do you trust most with the economy,

NHS, cost of living, immigration, national security, welfare reforms? • Key dynamics:

– Party leader perceptions– Tone change post re-shuffle– Nature of Coalition uncoupling– Incumbency bonus + final crunch factor– Constituency boundary changes– Shared prosperity v toff’s prosperity– UKIP, Sottish factors and EU factors – Impact of TV debates – Target groups (squeezed middle, squashed bottom, hard working families)– ‘Duffy’ moments

• But significantly the first general election to be fought in the full glare of social media

5. The economy. Party positionsConservatives•“We will finish the job we have started.” (Osborne)•Aiming for budget surplus by 2018/19•Good news: promising increase in personal tax allowance and higher rate threshold•Bad news: more cuts•On education and skills: more apprenticeships, funding for youth training•The challenge: sharing benefits of recovery more widely, offering election goodies that don’t de-stabilise recovery plansLabour•“We will not flinch from the tough decisions.” (Balls)•Aiming for budget surplus ‘over lifetime of next Parliament’•Good news: additional protected funding for the NHS, raising of minimum wage•Bad news: cap for child benefit, continue to raise the retirement age•On education and skills: more apprenticeships, Jobs Guarantee for young people •The challenge: to prove they can be trusted with the keysLib-Dems•“We’ll finish the job but we’ll finish it in a way that is fair” (Clegg)•Aiming for budget surplus by 2018•Good news: increase in personal tax allowance, support for mental health•Bad news: more cuts •On education and skills: rise in min wage for apprenticeships, 16+ funding protection•The challenge: creating a ‘differentiation strategy’

5. Education. Party positions• Conservatives

– Commitment to continue current qualification reforms though softer tone– Softer tread also on reform of school system– Continued focus on Eng/maths up to age 19– Use of data and system reforms to create more accountable system – Development of specialist college model through National Colleges– Continued development of employer driven skills system– Expansion of HE through an open market and ‘customer’ investment – Latest ‘pointers:’ Nicky Morgan and Osborne Conference speeches (Oct)

• Labour– Fully qualified profession with regular CPD and re-validation of expertise– Parent-led Academies but no more Free Schools– Directors of School Standards to over see school system and performance– English and maths as part of a Nat Bacc framework– College excellence model through ITEs– Locally determined and funded skills system– HE high-tech degree route through Tech Universities and local partnerships

– Latest ‘pointers:’ Byrne HE Strategy Paper (Aug,) Hunt Workforce Challenge (Oct)

• Lib-Dems– Support for disadvantaged pupils through the pupil premium– Parental guarantee on min core curriculum and qualified teachers, independent Education

Standards Authority– Big push on apprenticeships and skills training, ring fenced funding up to age 19– Latest ‘pointer:’ Lib-Dem Education Manifesto (Sept,) Clegg public sector speech (Oct)

The world as the politicians are planning itConservatives Labour Lib-Dem

Schools •More demanding qual system, emphasis on measurable outputs•3 routes @16-19 leading to Tech Bacc• New accountability benchmarks • Professional standards and PRP for teachers•Devolved management of new school system to RSCs

•Standards-based approach to qual reform• Fully qualified, licensed profession •14-19 Bacc framework with employer accredited work exp and personal skills•Devolved management of entire school system to local DSS

•‘World Class’ 14-19 system with equality between routes, improved careers system, pre apprenticeships, Eng/ma/ICT to L2•Parental guarantee on core curriculum•Teacher support and development

FE/Adult Skills •Gradual adoption of employer-led apprenticeships•Development of Traineeship route•Responsive qual system•Skills training handed over to employers•Local market determinism •New intervention procedures •Creation of National Colleges

•3 part rebuild of voc system: apprenticeships; FE system;14-19 employability•Support for L3 apprenticeship model, employer owned•Licensed ITEs focusing on int/technician/core skills•New employer-led partnerships•City region/LEP devolution

•Extension of pupil premium•UCAS system for apprenticeships, maintenance loans, improved careers system as part of strengthened 16-24 offer•Ring fenced funding to age 19

HE •Retaining current fee regime + differentials•Focus on STEM and WP•Lifting of numbers cap

•Revising fee approach•Shift towards tech degree route through tech unis•Stronger market regulation

•Full scale fee review BUT after 2015•Single HE regulator•Visa changes

Key things to look out for this year

• Further pointing work on the new qual system. For schools: GCSE grading, regulation; AS/A accreditation; VQ listings. For FE: App standards; UKCES and NOS; new Ofqual rules; vMOOCs and online learning; open database

• Big heave on English and maths. For schools: Shanghai method; Hubs; Core Maths; Specialist Schools. For FE: new staff requirements; bursaries; centres of excellence; performance measures; funding incentives

• Final modelling of new accountability system. For schools: secondary readiness; Progress 8; Level 2; destination data. For FE: destination; progression; earnings changes

• Sharper application of funding rules. For schools: MFG; programme sizes; rates @18. For FE: link with outcomes; monthly caps, extended funding rules; reliance on employer/learner contributions

• Political arm wrestling over system reform. For schools: RSCs; Blunkett outcomes; parent-power; chains and partnerships. For FE: ITE v GFE; elite v social enterprise; LEP/FE axis

• Tough talk on performance. For schools: PISA effect; qual profession; Royal College; inspection model. For FE: R and R; FE Commissioner; CAVTL and ETF developments; Teach Further; new teacher standards

• Continuing concerns about underachievement. For schools: KS1/KS3 testing; Ed Committee; EEF; Pupil Premium; careers. For FE: Social Mobility Commission; 2nd chance opportunities; employability; progression and earnings

• Sharpening policy divide between the major Parties