Dynamic Generation of Dynamic Generation of Hurricane Evacuation Hurricane Evacuation

RoutesRoutes

By Jon JonesBy Jon Jones

OverviewOverview

BackgroundBackground Data and ApplicationsData and Applications The Dynamic AlgorithmThe Dynamic Algorithm Expected ResultsExpected Results ChallengesChallenges Real-World ApplicationReal-World Application

BackgroundBackground

Routing is one of Routing is one of the most well-the most well-known GIS known GIS functions. The functions. The expected products expected products are usually a are usually a map…map…

… … and driving and driving directions. The directions. The directions usually directions usually include time and include time and distance for each distance for each segment of the segment of the route.route.

GeoDecisionsGeoDecisions

IRRIS – IRRIS – www.irris.comwww.irris.com

Currently 2 routing engines – DTOD Currently 2 routing engines – DTOD and ArcIMS Route Service. Plans for and ArcIMS Route Service. Plans for ArcGIS Server.ArcGIS Server.

Offers more functionality than Offers more functionality than Google, such as fastest/shortest, toll Google, such as fastest/shortest, toll avoidance, and HAZMATavoidance, and HAZMAT

Polygon Barrier RoutingPolygon Barrier Routing

The proposed next level – routing The proposed next level – routing functionality that imports predicted functionality that imports predicted weather phenomena in a GIS format, weather phenomena in a GIS format, analyzes it based on predetermined analyzes it based on predetermined criteria, creates barriers on roads where criteria, creates barriers on roads where the data indicates danger or closure, and the data indicates danger or closure, and attempts to route the user out of the attempts to route the user out of the predicted hurricane path. It is dynamic predicted hurricane path. It is dynamic because it will poll data sources at set because it will poll data sources at set intervals and change its predictions. Also, intervals and change its predictions. Also, the data is group into time intervals, so the data is group into time intervals, so the user can use the latest prediction to the user can use the latest prediction to not only route in real-time, but analyze not only route in real-time, but analyze future availability of routes.future availability of routes.

Data and Data and ApplicationsApplications

Data and Applications – Current Data and Applications – Current ResourcesResources

The routing (network analysis) will be The routing (network analysis) will be delivered via ESRI’s Network Analyst delivered via ESRI’s Network Analyst extension of ArcGIS. ESRI’s default extension of ArcGIS. ESRI’s default base layers will provide the base layers will provide the necessary cartography, and the necessary cartography, and the network data will be NAVTEQ’s 2007 network data will be NAVTEQ’s 2007 SDC North America.SDC North America.

The NOAA website provides The NOAA website provides downloadable GIS data for the downloadable GIS data for the projected path of the storm and storm projected path of the storm and storm surge.surge.

NOAA also provides the NDFD GRIB2 NOAA also provides the NDFD GRIB2 Decoder, a Windows desktop Decoder, a Windows desktop application that can download a wide application that can download a wide array of predicted values, includingarray of predicted values, including

Maximum wind speedsMaximum wind speeds Wave heightWave height Weather conditionsWeather conditions Watches and warningsWatches and warnings Total rainfallTotal rainfall Predictions fall in 3,6,or 12 hour Predictions fall in 3,6,or 12 hour

segments depending on data segments depending on data

Visual Studio.NET 2005 will be used Visual Studio.NET 2005 will be used to program all components where to program all components where possible.possible.

Any web portions will be hosted on Any web portions will be hosted on Internet Information Services (IIS)Internet Information Services (IIS)

Data and Applications – User Data and Applications – User InputsInputs

The user would provide the following The user would provide the following data as input parametersdata as input parameters

Location from which to begin Location from which to begin evacuationevacuation

Time of evacuationTime of evacuation Wind speed for bridge closure Wind speed for bridge closure

(default)(default) Wind speed for ferry closure (default)Wind speed for ferry closure (default)

Data and Applications - Other Data Data and Applications - Other Data NeedsNeeds

I need to find a reliable source of flood I need to find a reliable source of flood zones, or try to derive flooded areas by zones, or try to derive flooded areas by combining rainfall and elevation data.combining rainfall and elevation data.

I need to find layers that would represent I need to find layers that would represent adequate places of refuge, based on type adequate places of refuge, based on type or elevation.or elevation.

I would like to explore using some sort of I would like to explore using some sort of vegetation or ground cover data to predict vegetation or ground cover data to predict high likelihood of fallen trees.high likelihood of fallen trees.

The Dynamic The Dynamic Routing AlgorithmRouting Algorithm

Dynamic Routing Algorithm – Data Dynamic Routing Algorithm – Data ProcessingProcessing

The newest data is downloaded from The newest data is downloaded from sources as soon as availablesources as soon as available

For periods divided into 3 hour segments, For periods divided into 3 hour segments, the data is analyzed for values that would the data is analyzed for values that would create barrier conditionscreate barrier conditions

These areas are selected and intersected These areas are selected and intersected with the network data to form blockage with the network data to form blockage points.points.

The blockage points are stored under the The blockage points are stored under the time window for which they are relevanttime window for which they are relevant

Dynamic Algorithm – Plotting the Dynamic Algorithm – Plotting the RouteRoute

The user selects a location and time.The user selects a location and time. The application first determines if the The application first determines if the

location is in the projected path of location is in the projected path of the hurricane at the time proposed.the hurricane at the time proposed.

If so, using the relevant barrier point If so, using the relevant barrier point set, the app creates a service area set, the app creates a service area showing the distance the user can showing the distance the user can travel in 3 hours.travel in 3 hours.

Dynamic Algorithm – Plotting the Dynamic Algorithm – Plotting the RouteRoute

The service area polygon is analyzed to see if it is The service area polygon is analyzed to see if it is completely contained in the path polygon. If not, completely contained in the path polygon. If not, points in the service area not in the path are points in the service area not in the path are selected and single routes are calculated and selected and single routes are calculated and presented.presented.

If the service area has not exited the path, If the service area has not exited the path, intersections of major roads with the intersections of major roads with the service area are calculated (minor roads service area are calculated (minor roads aren’t likely to get the user much farther). aren’t likely to get the user much farther). These points are stored.These points are stored.

The algorithm then selects the next The algorithm then selects the next set of barrier points (because it is set of barrier points (because it is now three hours later) and begins to now three hours later) and begins to run and analyze service areas from run and analyze service areas from the points generated by the first go the points generated by the first go round.round.

If a route is found to escape the path, a If a route is found to escape the path, a new route is generated from the beginning new route is generated from the beginning and presented to the user.and presented to the user.

Some sort of additional Some sort of additional processing will have to be processing will have to be done to preserve and use done to preserve and use time-relevant barrier time-relevant barrier points when calculating points when calculating the final route.the final route.

If no polygons escape the path, the If no polygons escape the path, the user will be advised to chose an user will be advised to chose an earlier departure time, and routes earlier departure time, and routes will be calculated to nearby hurricane will be calculated to nearby hurricane shelter areas.shelter areas.

Expected ResultsExpected Results So far my work has shown that when So far my work has shown that when

polygons are used to create barriers polygons are used to create barriers routing products honor these barriersrouting products honor these barriers

In cases where it is feasible, I expect the In cases where it is feasible, I expect the analysis to yield a route to an area that is analysis to yield a route to an area that is outside the path of the hurricane and is outside the path of the hurricane and is reachable in the time given.reachable in the time given.

The routes will be the quickest way to The routes will be the quickest way to escape the path and avoid barriers, while escape the path and avoid barriers, while obeying traffic rules.obeying traffic rules.

ChallengesChallenges For the scope of this project, I will have to For the scope of this project, I will have to

use Desktop ArcGIS, thus ArcObjects, use Desktop ArcGIS, thus ArcObjects, which I have very little experience coding which I have very little experience coding in.in.

The NDFD GRIB2 Decoder and the libraries The NDFD GRIB2 Decoder and the libraries it is based on has the classic look of it is based on has the classic look of software created by amateurs. It might be software created by amateurs. It might be very difficult to use programmatically and I very difficult to use programmatically and I will probably rely on manual downloads.will probably rely on manual downloads.

The processing of the data and the The processing of the data and the repeated route algorithm are repeated route algorithm are resource-intensive, and may result in resource-intensive, and may result in a process that overwhelms the a process that overwhelms the machine.machine.

Realistic travel times will be difficult Realistic travel times will be difficult to project without traffic congestion to project without traffic congestion modeling.modeling.

The algorithm will lead the user out The algorithm will lead the user out of the path of the storm, but not of the path of the storm, but not necessarily to a place that is good or necessarily to a place that is good or safe to be.safe to be.

Real-World ApplicationReal-World Application To be incorporated into my work project, To be incorporated into my work project,

this project would need to run on ArcGIS this project would need to run on ArcGIS Server. However, the algorithm should Server. However, the algorithm should remain the same, and much of the code remain the same, and much of the code could be reused.could be reused.

The project will provide me with The project will provide me with experience introducing downloaded data experience introducing downloaded data into an application and analyzing it prior to into an application and analyzing it prior to mash-upmash-up

The ability to use predicted storm The ability to use predicted storm data in routing can be used by our data in routing can be used by our logistics customers both for shipping logistics customers both for shipping (i.e., getting their cargo out of the (i.e., getting their cargo out of the way of the storm) and by way of the storm) and by government customers to advise in government customers to advise in planning evacuation routes.planning evacuation routes.

I will gain experience in handling I will gain experience in handling dynamic data to extend the out-of-dynamic data to extend the out-of-the-box capabilities of Network the-box capabilities of Network Analysis in an automated fashion.Analysis in an automated fashion.

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments Frank Hardisty, Penn State Frank Hardisty, Penn State

University, AdvisorUniversity, Advisor

Staff of GeoDecisionsStaff of GeoDecisions