DURABLE MEDICAL EQUIPMENT MARKET UPDATE
Transcript of DURABLE MEDICAL EQUIPMENT MARKET UPDATE
DURABLEMEDICAL EQUIPMENTMARKET UPDATEMARCH 2016
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181.0%
33.0%
10.0%
111.0%
16.0%
17.0%
+0% +50% +100% +150% +200%
65 and older
15 to 64
Younger than 15
United States World
182.5 187.4 193.0 199.4 203.5 205.8
36.043.0
46.0 45.0 45.0 45.4
54.5 43.4 37.0 31.4 30.5 30.0
273.0 273.8 276.0 275.8 279.0 281.2
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Commercial Medicaid and CHIP Uninsured
(U.S
. p
op
ula
tio
n, in
mill
ion
s)
Increased demand further supported by increasing number of insured…
…and increased utilization of home health care
(un
its
in m
illio
ns)
Global population age 65 and older continues to grow rapidly…Estimated percent change in population, 2010 to 2050, by age, in the world and the United States
COUNTRY
POP.
(MM) COUNTRY
POP.
(MM)
United States 321.4 South Africa 53.7
Russia 142.4 Columbia 46.7
Mexico 121.7 Argentina 43.4
Egypt 88.5 Algeria 39.5
United Kingdom 64.1 Poland 38.6
Global population is increasingly overweight and obese…Top 10 populated countries where obesity affects 25%+ of the adult population
The top 10 affected countries account for 13.2% of global populationNote: excludes Iran; obesity defined as male or female with BMI ≥30kg/m2
ATTRACTIVE INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS…
Strong demand drivers continue to support increased demand for DME products worldwide.
Aging population.
Patient preference for home-based care.
Increase in insured population as a result of the Affordable Care Act.
STRONG FUNDAMENTAL DEMAND DRIVES… …AN INCREASE IN HOME HEALTH CARE PATIENTS
Source: Pew Research, World Health Organization, Congressional Budget Office, and MedPAC.
2.53.0
3.4 3.4 3.54.1
5.5
6.8 6.7 6.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2002 2006 2010 2012 2013
Home Health Users Episodes
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$0.7 $1.1 $1.7 $2.8 $4.1$7.1
$13.8$15.9
$25.2
$30.9
$37.0
$46.5$48.2
$50.6$53.2
$56.4
$60.2
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED U.S. DME EXPENDITURES PAYOR BREAKDOWN
($ in
bill
ion
s)
5.3% DME
CAGR
2015P DME
Expenditures
$46.5 billion
Insurance accounts for
41.1% of spend with Medicare being the
largest payor
3.9% DME
CAGR
9.2% DME
CAGR
Medicare
Competitive Bidding
Begins
4.7% DME
CAGR
…SUPPORT ACCELERATEDMARKET GROWTH
U.S. DME expenditures are expected to grow at a 5.3% CAGR from $46.5 billion in 2015P to $60.2 billion in 2020P.
The DME industry is expected to accelerate due to demographic trends, patient preference for home-based
care, and the increase in the insured population.
Competitive bidding, an ongoing Medicare initiative to bring its reimbursement in line with other payors, has
negatively impacted some DME distributors and manufacturers.
Source: CMS NHE estimates, company filings, and ThomsonOne.
Cash
Payments,
57.2%
Private Health
Insurance,
11.8%
Medicare,
16.8%
Medicaid,
12.3%
Other Health
Insurance
Programs, 0.2%
Other Third
Party Payors,
1.7%
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$1,424.6$1,501.6
$1,415.8$1,334.5
$1,270.2
$1,142.3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE RELATIVE EFFECTS OF COMPETITIVE BIDDING
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
The DME industry is highly competitive and has a dynamic reimbursement environment.
Medicare’s competitive bidding program began in January 2011 with the first round of bidding, and the second
round began in July 2013.
− The first round of bidding was done in nine metropolitan areas and resulted in 32% lower pricing, while the second round was done in
91 metropolitan areas and resulted in 45% lower pricing
− CMS started to phase in new rates in January 2016, and all regions will be lowered to a regional single payment amount on
July 1, 2016
Industry players with a comprehensive portfolio and low cost manufacturing are most likely to successfully capture
market share in this environment.
DME MANUFACTURER
EST. REVENUE
(IN MILLIONS) HOMECARE RESPIRATORY SLEEP
LONG-TERM CARE
RETAIL / e-COMMERCE
/ DTC
$1,142
~$700
~$400
~€350
~$350
~$200
~$175
Jan 2011:
Competitive Bidding
Round 1
Jul. 2013:
Competitive Bidding
Round 2
5.4%(5.7)%
(5.7)%(4.8)%
(10.1)%
Base Business Revenue Growth
Source: Company filings, company websites, and CapitalIQ.
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UPDATE ON REIMBURSEMENT ENVIRONMENT:NATIONAL COMPETITIVE BIDDING
Since its implementation, the Competitive Bidding Program has re-aligned payments amounts with new market prices, saving Medicare (and taxpayers) billions.
At present, the program is restricted to certain categories of equipment, supplies and services.
− Most notably respiratory systems, mobility products (both power and manual), general home medical equipment and beds are all
encompassed under the current product categories
In early February, the Obama administration made available its FY 2017 budget, which includes authority to expand competitive
bidding to certain DME.
− Proposal includes inhalation drugs; all prosthetics and orthotics; and ostomy, tracheostomy, and urological supplies which represent
total estimated savings of $3.8 billion over the next 10 years
9 Metropolitan Statistical Areas.
Bid rates that took effect on January 1, 2011 were 32% lower on
average than prior pricing in nine select categories.
Contracts awarded for January 1, 2011 – December 31, 2013.
91 Metropolitan Statistical Areas.
Bid rates that took effect on July 1, 2013 were 45% lower on
average than prior pricing.
Contracts awarded for July 1, 2013 – June 30, 2016.
Round 2 re-compete process closed in March 2015 and will be
awarded by Spring 2016.
Source: CMS, HHS, and company filings.
32% Decline 37% Decline
Prior Bid 1 Re-compete
45% Decline Single
Payment
Amounts to
be
Announced
Prior Bid 1 Re-compete
ROUND 1 ROUND 2
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UPDATE ON REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT:MEDICAL DEVICE SALES TAX
A two year moratorium on the Medical Device Tax was implemented with the December 18, 2015 signing of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016.
The tax, which imposes a 2.3% tax on the domestic sales of medical devices in the United States, to be paid by
manufacturers or importers, was implemented in 2013 as part of the Affordable Care Act.
− Tax applies to all domestic sales of medical devices including MRI machines, hospital beds, and surgical equipment
− Does not apply to medical goods sold at retail for individual consumer use
The Tax was originally implemented to generate roughly $30 billion in funds to support the Affordable Care Act.
− Assumed that greater access to healthcare coverage would create a larger market for medical devices
− Determined to be ineffective, only raising some 60% of funds during initial period
Private companies stand to experience $3.4 billion in tax savings from 2016 – 2017.
− Savings will be experienced across the industry with small-to-medium size medical device companies experiencing the largest benefit
− Cost savings will allow manufactures to deploy additional spend to R&D and new innovative product launches
The tax is presently set to be automatically reinstated on January 1, 2018.
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MEDICARE POTENTIAL COSTS AND SAVINGS FROM PRIOR AUTHORIZATION
UPDATE ON REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT:PRIOR AUTHORIZATION PROCESS FOR CERTAIN DMEPOS
In December 2015, CMS issued a new rule establishing a prior authorization process for certain durable medical equipment, prosthetics, orthotics, and supplies (DMEPOS).
Final ruling issued February 2016 addresses concerns related to improper payments for DMEPOS and protects
access to necessary care for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries.
DMEPOS items that were flagged for unnecessary utilization comprise a Master List of 135 items that will
potentially be subject to prior authorization.
− CMS will initially test the new prior authorization rule on a subset of items from the Master List
− Items automatically stay on the Master List for 10 years but can be removed earlier if prices fall below the payment threshold
For items on the Required Prior Authorization List, relevant documentation must be submitted for prior
authorization before beneficiaries can receive an item and submit a claim.
CMS anticipates ~$150 million in incremental Medicare costs associated with processing prior authorization
requests through 2025P, compared to ~$600 million in Medicare Part B savings from a reduction in unnecessary
utilization.
$1 $6 $6
$14 $14 $14 $14
$29 $29 $29
$10
$30
$50 $50 $60 $60 $60
$80 $90 $90
2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P
Medicare Costs Total Medicare Part B Savings
For the Period Ending December 31, 2016P – 2025P
($ in millions)
Source: CMS.
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0.0x
2.5x
5.0x
7.5x
10.0x
12.5x
15.0x
17.5x
20.0x
DME public comparables are trading near 5-year highs.
VALUATION OF PUBLIC COMPARABLES AND PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS
Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA for the period February 28, 2011 – February 29, 2016
(1) DME Index includes: Getinge, Stryker, ResMed, and Hill-Rom.
Note: IVC excluded due to Company issues related to FDA consent decree.
5-Year Maximum
5-Year Minimum
5-Year Median
Current
7.3x
9.3x
11.0x
7.8x
11.3x
15.3x
VALUATION OBSERVATIONS:PUBLIC COMPARABLES AND TRANSACTIONS
Relevant M&A Transactions
8Sunrise Medical / Nordic
Capital (11.0x)
7Altimate Medical / Granite -
RockWood (9.6x)
6Vantage Mobility / Evergreen
Pacific (Confidential)
5Permobil AB / Investor AB
(13.0x)
4ATG Rehab / Numotion
(9.0x)
3Kinetic Concepts /
ArjoHuntleigh AB (5.7x)
2Harmar Mobility / Cortec Group
(Confidential)
1M.C. Healthcare / Span-
America Medical (21.4x)
13.9x
10.3x
DME Index (1) S&P 500 IndexStrategic Buyer PEG Buyer
Source: Capital IQ, public filings, and Wall Street Research.
Deals acquired by
strategics traded at a
median multiple of 9.0x
Deals acquired by PEGs
traded at a median
multiple of 9.6x
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7
6
5
4
3
2
1
9National HME/ Tailwind
Capital (Confidential)
9
10Ohio Medical / Tenex
(Confidential)
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NOTABLE INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTSPRIVATE COMPANIES
Company Ownership Description
Provider of home respiratory therapy products and other mobility-focused
durable medical equipment.
Manufacturer of standing solutions to support therapy for adults and
children with disabilities.
Provider of portable oxygen concentrators and other respiratory related
medical devices.
Manufactures and markets sports medicine and rehabilitative orthopedic
products and services.
Provider of home respiratory service and medical equipment such as seat cushions, lift chairs, and portable nebulizers.
Branded manufacturer and distributer of home medical equipment and
related products.
Manufactures and distributes durable medical equipment in the home
healthcare, surgical, and rehabilitation markets.
Manufactures assistive products and solutions for disabled and elderly
individuals including manual and power wheelchairs, lift systems, and
scooters.
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NOTABLE INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTSPRIVATE COMPANIES (CONT.)
Company Ownership Description
Designs, manufactures, and markets mobility and accessibility solutions
focused primarily on lift and ramp products.
Private CompanyDesigns, manufactures, distributes, and services personal mobility
vehicles.
Manufacturer and service provider of patient handling and wound care
products for post-acute healthcare settings.
Provider of FDA approved Phase I post-operative orthopedic
rehabilitation products and services.
Private CompanyManufactures and distributes wound care, respiratory products, lab supplies, and medical equipment.
Provides hospice specific durable medical equipment, customer care
services, and cost containment solutions to the hospice industry.
Provides customized mobility, rehabilitation, and adaptive seating
systems for individuals who have been diagnosed as having a permanent
or long-term loss of mobility.
Provides mobility solutions for individuals with complex medical mobility
limitations.
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NOTABLE INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTSPRIVATE COMPANIES (CONT.)
Company Ownership Description
Develops, manufactures, and sells home respiratory therapy products.
Designs, develops, manufactures, and sells high-end wheel chairs and
other mobility products.
Develops, manufactures, and sells wheelchairs and transport systems for
individuals with functional disabilities.
Provider of home healthcare products and services including respiratory
therapy, durable medical equipment, rehabilitation equipment, infusion
therapy and sleep diagnostic testing services.
Private CompanyDesigns and manufactures personal mobility products for people with disabilities including power chairs, scooters, and lift chairs.
Designs, manufactures, and markets medical products and assistive
technology devices for the recovery, rehabilitation, and respiratory needs
of patients in hospitals and homecare settings.
Provider of respiratory medical devices, catheters, and other home
medical equipment.
Manufactures wheelchair accessible transportation and related mobility
products
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