DÜNYA EKONOMİSİ FİNANSAL SEKTÖR

1Strateji Geliştirme Başkanlığı

DÜNYA EKONOMİSİ

FİNANSAL SEKTÖR


Türev Ürünlerin Piyasa Değeri (trilyon ABD$)

Kaynak: BIS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


ABD’de Kredi Koşulları (% Değişim)

Kaynak: Federal Reserve Board

-30

0

30

60

900

4 Ç

1

04

Ç2

04

Ç3

04

Ç4

05

Ç1

05

Ç2

05

Ç3

05

Ç4

06

Ç1

06

Ç2

06

Ç3

06

Ç4

07

Ç1

07

Ç2

07

Ç3

07

Ç4

08

Ç1

08

Ç2

08

Ç3

08

Ç4

09

Ç1

09

Ç2

09

Ç3

Mortgage

Ticari Ev Kredileri

Tüketim ve Yatırım Kredileri

Kredi Kartları

Diğer Tüketici Kredileri


-30

0

30

60

900

4 Ç

1

04

Ç2

04

Ç3

04

Ç4

05

Ç1

05

Ç2

05

Ç3

05

Ç4

06

Ç1

06

Ç2

06

Ç3

06

Ç4

07

Ç1

07

Ç2

07

Ç3

07

Ç4

08

Ç1

08

Ç2

08

Ç3

08

Ç4

09

Ç1

09

Ç2

09

Ç3

Ev Kredileri

Tüketici Kredileri

KOBİ Kredileri

Büyük Ölçekli Şirketlere Krediler

Avrupa’da Kredi Koşulları

(% Değişim)

Kaynak: ECB


Oynaklık Endeksi VIX

Kaynak: CBOE (20 Ekim 2009 itibarıyla)

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Küresel Risk İştahı Endeksi

Kaynak: Credit Suisse (7 Ekim itibarıyla, 2009)

6


3 Ay Vadeli LIBOR Faiz Oranı ile 3 Ay Vadeli ABD Hazine Bonosu Getirisi Arasındaki Fark (TED Spread)

(2 Ocak 2007 – 13 Ekim 2009, baz puan)

Kaynak: Bloomberg, TCMB


8

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (*) 2010 (*)

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Doğrudan Yatırım Portföy Yatırımı Diğer Toplam

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Net Finansal Akım (Milyar Dolar)

(*) Tahmin

Kaynak: IMF, Dünya Ekonomik Görünümü, Ekim 2009


Nominal Short-Term Interest Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000

M1

2000

M6

2000

M11

2001

M4

2001

M9

2002

M2

2002

M7

2002

M12

2003

M5

2003

M10

2004

M3

2004

M8

2005

M1

2005

M6

2005

M11

2006

M4

2006

M9

2007

M2

2007

M7

2007

M12

2008

M5

2008

M10

2009

M3

2009

M8

United States Euro area Japan



Real Short-Term Interests Rates

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

420

00M

1

2000

M6

2000

M1

2001

M4

2001

M9

2002

M2

2002

M7

2002

M1

2003

M5

2003

M1

2004

M3

2004

M8

2005

M1

2005

M6

2005

M1

2006

M4

2006

M9

2007

M2

2007

M7

2007

M1

2008

M5

2008

M1

2009

M3

Japan US Euro area



Policy Rate Expectations (percent)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8 t+9 t+10 t+11 t+12

US United States 9/16/2009 Euro Area Europe 9/16/2009 Japan United Kingdom 9/16/2009



Central Banks' Total Asssets (percent of 2008 GDP)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

12/2

9/20

06

02.0

9.20

07

3/23

/200

7

05.0

4.20

07

6/15

/200

7

7/27

/200

7

09.0

7.20

07

10/1

9/20

07

11/3

0/20

07

01.1

1.20

08

2/22

/200

8

04.0

4.20

08

5/16

/200

8

6/27

/200

8

08.0

8.20

08

9/19

/200

8

10/3

1/20

08

12.1

2.20

08

1/23

/200

9

03.0

6.20

09

4/17

/200

9

5/29

/200

9

07.1

0.20

09

8/21

/200

9

Euro area ECB UK BOE US FED Japan BOJ



Quantitative Liquidity Measures (percent of G3 GDP)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

20

00

Q1

20

00

Q3

20

01

Q1

20

01

Q3

20

02

Q1

20

02

Q3

20

03

Q1

20

03

Q3

20

04

Q1

20

04

Q3

20

05

Q1

20

05

Q3

20

06

Q1

20

06

Q3

20

07

Q1

20

07

Q3

20

08

Q1

20

08

Q3

20

09

Q1

Base money plus reserves Reserves Base money



Average Petroluem Spot and Futures Prices (US dollars a barrel)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1/31

/200

3

7/31

/200

3

1/30

/200

4

7/30

/200

4

1/31

/200

5

7/29

/200

5

1/31

/200

6

7/31

/200

6

1/31

/200

7

7/31

/200

7

1/31

/200

8

7/31

/200

8

1/31

/200

9

7/31

/200

9

1/31

/201

0

7/31

/201

0

1/31

/201

1

7/31

/201

1

1/31

/201

2

7/31

/201

2

1/31

/201

3

7/31

/201

3

Spot 1/28/2009 4/14/2009 9/15/2009



Crude Oil: Total Open Interest, Futures and Options

0

500

1000

1500

2000

3/21

/199

5

09.0

5.19

95

2/13

/199

6

7/23

/199

6

12/3

1/19

96

06.1

0.19

97

11/1

8/19

97

4/28

/199

8

10.0

6.19

98

3/16

/199

9

8/24

/199

9

02.0

1.20

00

07.1

1.20

00

12/1

9/20

00

5/29

/200

1

11/1

3/20

01

4/23

/200

2

10.0

1.20

02

03.1

1.20

03

8/19

/200

3

1/27

/200

4

07.0

6.20

04

12/1

4/20

04

5/24

/200

5

11.0

1.20

05

04.1

1.20

06

9/19

/200

6

2/27

/200

7

08.0

7.20

07

1/15

/200

8

6/24

/200

8

12.0

2.20

08

05.1

2.20

09

Futures Options



Copper: Total Open Interest, Futures and Options

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

3.21

.199

5

11.0

7.19

95

6.18

.199

6

1.28

.199

7

09.0

9.19

97

4.21

.199

8

12.0

1.19

98

7.13

.199

9

2.22

.200

0

10.0

3.20

00

5.15

.200

1

12.2

8.20

01

8.13

.200

2

3.25

.200

3

11.0

4.20

03

6.15

.200

4

1.25

.200

5

09.0

6.20

05

4.18

.200

6

11.2

8.20

06

07.1

0.20

07

2.19

.200

8

9.30

.200

8

05.1

2.20

09

Futures Options



Corn: Total Open Interest, Futures and Options

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

180001

.06.

1998

6.30

.199

8

12.2

2.19

98

6.15

.199

9

12.0

7.19

99

5.30

.200

0

11.2

1.20

00

5.15

.200

1

11.1

3.20

01

05.0

7.20

02

10.2

9.20

02

4.22

.200

3

10.1

4.20

03

04.0

6.20

04

9.28

.200

4

3.22

.200

5

9.13

.200

5

03.0

7.20

06

8.29

.200

6

2.20

.200

7

8.14

.200

7

02.0

5.20

08

7.29

.200

8

1.20

.200

9

Futures Options



Wheal: Total Open Interest, Futures and Options

0

100

200

300

400

500

01

.06

.19

98

06

.02

.19

98

10

.27

.19

98

3.2

3.1

99

9

8.1

7.1

99

9

01

.11

.20

00

06

.06

.20

00

10

.31

.20

00

3.2

7.2

00

1

8.2

1.2

00

1

1.2

2.2

00

2

6.1

8.2

00

2

11

.12

.20

02

04

.08

.20

03

09

.02

.20

03

1.2

7.2

00

4

6.2

2.2

00

4

11

.16

.20

04

04

.12

.20

05

09

.06

.20

05

1.3

1.2

00

6

6.2

7.2

00

6

11

.21

.20

06

4.1

7.2

00

7

09

.11

.20

07

02

.05

.20

08

07

.01

.20

08

11

.25

.20

08

4.2

1.2

00

9

Futures Options



Metal Futures Curves(prices in thousands of U.S. dollars a

metric ton)

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

5,5

6

6,520

09

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Copper; now Copper; 6 months ago Nickel; now Nickel; 6 months ago



Credit/GDP Growth

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-12 -8 -4 0 4 8

pre-1985 post-1985



Credit Growth in Private Nonfinancial Sectors

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000

Q1

2000

Q2

2000

Q3

2000

Q4

2001

Q1

2001

Q2

2001

Q3

2001

Q4

2002

Q1

2002

Q2

2002

Q3

2002

Q4

2003

Q1

2003

Q2

2003

Q3

2003

Q4

2004

Q1

2004

Q2

2004

Q3

2004

Q4

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Euro Area (right) United States (left)



Private Credit Growth in Selected Advanced Europe Economies

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

200701 200704 200707 200710 200801 200804 200807 200810 200901 200904 200907

France Germany UK Spain



Private Credit Growth in Selected Emerging Europe Economies

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

200701 200704 200707 200710 200801 200804 200807 200810 200901 200904

Hungary Romania Poland Latvia



Monetary Policy MeasuresMonetary Policy Measures

0

5

10

15

20

25

01.0

5.2

007

03.0

2.2

007

04.2

7.2

007

06.2

2.2

007

08.1

7.2

007

10.1

2.2

007

12.0

7.2

007

02.0

1.2

008

03.2

8.2

008

05.2

3.2

008

07.1

8.2

008

09.1

2.2

008

11.0

7.2

008

01.0

2.2

009

02.2

7.2

009

04.2

4.2

009

06.1

9.2

009

08.1

4.2

009 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

ECB Assets (percent of 2008 GDP)

BOE Assets (percent of 2008 GDP)

ECB refinancing rate (percent)

BOE base rate (percent)


DÜNYA EKONOMİSİ FİNANSAL SEKTÖR

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