TRENDS ANALYSIS OUTLOOK

INVESTMENT INSIGHT

DUBLINRESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS FOR INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS2018

2

SUMMARY INTRODUCTIONAs the capital city of Ireland, Europe’s fastest growing economy, Dublin’s residential market is increasingly on the radar of international investors. This report examines the factors driving this heightened interest.

1. Dublin is the capital city of Ireland, Europe’s fastest growing economy

2. In addition to economic opportunities, Dublin has a rich cultural and lifestyle offering

3. Ireland is undergoing a population boom, underpinning long-term demand for housing

4. Despite recovering by 89%, residential prices remain 24% below their previous peak level

5. Dublin compares very favourably to major international cities across a range of metrics

Overview The appeal of investing in Dublin’s residential market is underpinned by the city’s commercial success, which is complemented by its educational and lifestyle offering. Dublin is a dynamic, outward looking city, and home to the European Headquarters of many of the world’s leading companies including Google, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Microsoft to name just a few. Dublin’s success in attracting these companies is a reflection of the wider success the city has had in positioning itself as a leading global business and financial hub within the EU.

The draw of Dublin can be attributed to soft and hard factors. For instance, Ireland’s long history of emigration enables the country to yield substantial soft power by leveraging its influence with the Irish diaspora in senior positions in major multinationals. At a more hard-nosed business level, Dublin’s low corporate tax rate of 12.5% is one of the lowest ‘onshore’ statutory corporate tax rates in the world.

While a favourable tax rate acts as a significant pull factor, Dublin’s young,

highly educated English speaking workforce is also of central importance for employers:

• 33% of the population is aged under 25, the highest rate in Europe1

• 53% of 30-34 year olds have a degree, also the highest rate in Europe2

• Ireland is ranked first in the world for being open to foreign ideas and also for flexibility when faced with new challenges3

The incentivised tax treatment that businesses enjoy also extends to individual investors. There are a number of fund structures that allow tax efficient investing through vehicles such as the Qualifying Investor Alternative Investment Fund, which is open to suitably qualified investors making a minimum initial subscription of €100,000. As a further incentive, the Immigrant Investor Programme has been established which allows non-EEA nationals and their families, who commit to an approved investment in Ireland, to secure residency status. The ease of investing in Dublin is facilitated by Dublin Airport, which offers

FIGURE 1

Selected global corporate tax rates

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Irel

and

Sin

gap

ore

Luxe

mb

ourg

Cze

ch R

epub

lic

Pol

and

UK

Finl

and

Icel

and

Rus

sia

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tuga

l

US

A

Sw

eden

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mar

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Italy

Kor

ea

Aus

tria

Chi

na

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nds

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ain

Bel

gium

Ger

man

y

Fran

ce

Source: Deloitte

1 Eurostat2 Eurostat3 IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2017

3

excellent global connectivity due to its strategic geographic position between Europe and the United States.

Educational draw

Dublin’s educational institutions have a growing reputation abroad with international student numbers expanding by 17.5% over the last three years.4 Dublin is increasingly becoming a primary

destination to study medicine for students from Asia with the Royal College of Surgeons, University College Dublin and Trinity College Dublin all offering medical training to overseas students. Trinity College, which has sister colleges in the universities of Cambridge and Oxford in the United Kingdom, is Ireland’s most prestigious university and attracts thousands of tourists annually to its historic campus in Dublin City Centre.

DUBLIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS 2018 INVESTMENT INSIGHT

Ireland has an aviation preclearance agreement with the United States since November 2008. Under the agreement, passengers of all United States bound flights from Dublin and Shannon Airports are fully cleared for immigration, customs, agriculture and security controls before leaving Ireland. This means that passengers travelling to the United States are treated as domestic passengers on arrival and do not face any further entry controls.

From the passenger’s perspective, the preclearance process allows for more efficient use of preboarding time at Dublin Airport. The experience on arrival is also greatly improved as it avoids a lengthy entry process and can allow transit passengers to remain airside for connecting flights.

IRELAND – UNITED STATES PRECLEARANCE

FIGURE 2

Flight connectivity ex Europe

4 Higher Education Authority

Melbourne

Sydney

Singapore

Kuala Lumpur

MumbaiBangkok

Shanghai

Beijing

Hong Kong

Delhi

Auckland

DIRECT CONNECTION

THROUGH ABU DHABI/DUBAI

DubaiAbu Dhabi

Doha

Addis Ababa

Agadir

DUBLIN

Seattle

San FranciscoLas Vegas

Los Angeles

Vancouver Toronto Montreal

NewarkChicago

New YorkPhiladelphia

Washington

CharlotteAtlantaOrlando

Miami

BostonHartford

IRELAND’S WORKFORCE ISHIGHLY EDUCATED WITH 50%OF 30-34 YEAR OLDS HAVINGA DEGREE OR HIGHERCOMPARED WITH AN AVERAGEOF 39% ACROSS THE EU.

OF 30-34 YEAR OLDS HAVEA DEGREE OR HIGHERCOMPARED WITH AN EU AVERAGE OF 39%

IRELAND39%

50%

53%

EU AVERAGE

Source: Knight Frank Research

4

Source: Eurostat

FIGURE 3

Population projections 2015-2081

EU Average10.1%

Ireland14.9%Ireland

14.9%

EU Average10.1%

Ireland34.39%

Ireland14.9%

EU Average10.1%

EU Average10.1%

Ireland35%

EU Average2%

4

Lifestyle appealIn addition to the commercial and educational appeal, Dublin also has attractive cultural and lifestyle pull factors. Chief amongst these is the city’s rich literary heritage with Oscar Wilde, Samuel Beckett and James Joyce just some of the famous writers and playwrights to hail from the city. Indeed, Dublin was the setting for Joyce’s great 20th century novel, Ulysses.

Dublin’s environs offer fantastic outdoor activities, especially in the golfing and horse breeding arenas. Ireland is home to over 400 golf courses, producing some of the world’s leading professionals including Rory McIlroy, Darren Clarke, Graeme McDowell, Paul McGinley and Padraig Harrington. Irish golf courses, renowned worldwide for their picturesque landscapes and rich heritage, attracted 193,000 people to play in 2016 according to Fáilte Ireland. Famous courses include the Old Head Golf Links in Cork and The K Club located just outside Dublin.

Ireland is currently the third largest thoroughbred breeding nation in the world with 6,777 registered breeders basing there operations here.5 These include John Magnier’s Coolmore Stud, Prince Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte Farms, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s Darley Stud and Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Derrinstown Stud.

Demographic drivers Ireland is experiencing a population boom, providing a natural long-term source of demand for housing. According to the

latest census, over the period 1991- 2016, the population grew by 35% compared to a growth rate of 7% for the EU as a whole. Leinster – the province in which Dublin is located – accounted for 55% of the population in 2016, which represented a 5% increase on 2011.

A high fertility rate in conjunction with lower mortality rates, has resulted in a natural annual population growth rate of 0.7%, which is far in excess of any other European state.6 The high growth rate is set to continue with Eurostat projecting that the population of Ireland will increase by 35% during the period 2015 to 2081 compared to just 2% for the EU.

Due to trends in urbanisation, Dublin is set to benefit most from this population growth. According to the United Nations,

FIGURE 4

Natural population growth rate

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

Bel

gium

Bul

garia

Cze

ch R

epub

lic

Den

mar

k

Ger

man

y

Est

onia

Irel

and

Gre

ece

Sp

ain

Fran

ce

Cro

atia

Italy

Cyp

rus

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mb

ourg

Hun

gary

Mal

ta

Net

herla

nds

Aus

tria

Pol

and

Por

tuga

l

Rom

ania

Slo

veni

a

Slo

vaki

a

Finl

and

Sw

eden

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Source: Eurostat

400golf courses

Over

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Wes

t

Sou

th-W

est

Sou

th-E

ast

Mid

-Wes

t

Mid

land

s

Mid

-Eas

t

Dub

lin

Bor

der

Source: CSO

FIGURE 5

Projected share of population growth 2016-2031

5 Horse Racing Ireland6 Eurostat

55

FIGURE 6

Unemployment trends

Euro Area Ireland

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2017201620152014201320122011201020092008

Source: Eurostat

80% of people in Ireland will live in urban areas by 2050, up from just over 60% currently. According to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), by 2031, over 40% of Ireland’s population growth will be concentrated in Dublin. Furthermore, the counties surrounding Dublin in the Mid-East region (Meath, Kildare and Wicklow) have the next highest potential accounting for approximately 25% of projected growth. Clearly then, Dublin will be the focal point of future population growth which will underpin long-term demand for housing.

Economic driversThe EU Commission is forecasting economic growth of 4.4% for Ireland in 2018, almost twice the growth rate of the Euro area. Growth is supported by heightened foreign investment inflows, which has seen the unemployment rate fall to 6.7% at the end of 2017, below the Euro area average of 9.1%.7

Consumer confidence has rebounded sharply, with the volume of retail sales ex motors increasing by 6.2%8 in the year to February 2018. Personal consumption grew by 1.9%9 in 2017 with a 2.4%10 further expansion forecast for 2018,

6.2%RETAIL SALES ARE UP

indicating that the recovery is becoming increasingly domestically led.

Government debt as a percentage of GDP declined from a peak of 124%11 during the height of the euro crisis to now stand at 68%12 while tax revenue increased by 3.5%13 in the year to March 2018. The improvement in the public finances, combined with the strong momentum behind economic growth, has led to Ireland’s sovereign credit rating being upgraded to A+ by Fitch in

December 2017. Ireland’s success in turning around its finances following the euro crisis has earned it a ‘star pupil’ reputation in Europe and created the stable environment which has spurred large capital inflows from international investors. Additionally, Brexit may provide a further boost to Dublin with relocations of well paid office jobs from London expected, adding an additional layer of high-value demand to the residential market.

DUBLIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS 2018 INVESTMENT INSIGHT

7 Eurostat 8 CSO9 CSO10 ESRI11 CSO12 CSO13 Department of Finance

6

RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEWThe Dublin residential market is characterised by a chronic lack of supply which is driving price and rental inflation.

Ireland was one of the worst affected countries of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as an overvalued residential market underwent a correction simultaneously as the GFC hit. In the aftermath, prices fell by almost 60%14 in Dublin, making it one of the worst housing crashes on record anywhere in the world. However, as it became clear that the market had substantially overcorrected, prices rebounded strongly, growing by over 89% although they remain 24% below peak.15 Meanwhile, rents fell by 27% peak-to-trough but now exceed their previous high by 13%.16

A lack of new supply has been driving these increases, with the delivery of new residential stock between 2010 and 2016 sitting at its lowest ever level since records began in 1970.17 While delivery of new stock increased by 44% in 2017 to just over 6,000 units18, it remains significantly below the need for 11,000 units annually as identified by our research.

A scarcity of mortgage financing continues to be one of the main factors behind the lack of new supply, with the

value of mortgage lending in Ireland falling from €39.9 billion in 2006 to €7.2 billion in 2017.19 While part of this fall has been due to the tightening of the availability of domestic bank funding following the GFC, the decline can also be attributed to the macro-prudential measures introduced by the Central Bank in 2015 aimed at avoiding another credit fueled bubble. The Central Bank

FIGURE 7

Dublin residential price index

2018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150

Source: CSO

0

5,000

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15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

€ m

illio

n

2017

2016

2015

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2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Source: BPFI

FIGURE 8

Mortgage drawdowns“ In contrast to the latter stages of the Celtic Tiger, the residential market is now dominated by first-time buyers illustrating that the market is being driven by positive fundamentals rather than unsustainable speculation.”

14 CSO15 CSO16 RTB17 Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government18 Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government19 BPFI

7

Dublin compares favourably to London, New York and Hong Kong across a range of metrics as illustrated in the table below.

Examining the purchasing power of one million euro in Dublin, one can purchase nearly five times the amount of prime space than in Hong Kong and approximately four times the amount of prime space than in London and

New York. Furthermore, property taxes are much lower with an investor paying €10,000 on acquisition of a one million euro property in Dublin compared to approximately €68,000 in London, €28,000 in New York and €187,000 in Hong Kong. For the same property, annual property tax would be €1,491 in Dublin compared to €1,589 in London, €12,228 in New York and €1,896 in Hong Kong.

Category Dublin London New York Hong Kong

How much space will €1 million buy1 1,370 sq ft 358 sq ft 320 sq ft2 287 sq ft

Transaction tax3 €10,000 €68,417 €28,242 €187,500

Property taxation3 €1,491 €1,589 €12,228 €1,896

1 Knight Frank Research as of Q4 20172 Refers to new developments only for New York3 Based on €1 million home

measures included introducing borrowing limits of 3.5 times income and the requirement of a 20% deposit, reducing to 10% for first-time buyers while buy-to-let investors require a deposit of 30% loan-to-value.

As a result, first-time buyers now account for approximately 50% of mortgages compared to 20% leading up to the crash.20 Furthermore, buy-to-let investors now account for approximately 2% of the market compared to approximately 20% previously which is a further sign that the market is being driven by positive fundamentals rather than unsustainable speculation.21

SummaryThe Dublin residential market represents a unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure to Europe’s fastest growing economy. In addition to being Ireland’s economic engine, with average incomes 15%22 higher than the State, Dublin is also the focal point for Ireland’s population boom which will ensure a long-term demand for housing.

With the majority of advanced economies experiencing the dual forces of weak economic growth and aging populations, Dublin has stood out as a beacon of growth. In the process, the city has attracted the attention of some of the world’s largest investment funds such as Singapore’s Oxley Holdings who are developing a mixed-use scheme with Ballymore extending to over one million sq ft in the heart of Dublin’s docklands. With indicators such as prices, rents and supply all pointing in a favourable direction from an investor’s point of view, the outlook remains bright.

These same dynamics have also raised the market’s profile for international individual investors who are also attracted by Dublin’s educational and lifestyle offering in addition to the aforementioned economic case. And while the residential market faces serious issues such as the difficulty in obtaining mortgage financing, this creates an opportunity for foreign buyers who are not hindered by funding obstacles. In this context, international interest is only set to grow.

International comparison

DUBLIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS 2018 INVESTMENT INSIGHT

20 BPFI21 BPFI22 CSO

Strawberry Hill House, Vico Road, Dalkey, Co. Dublin

RESEARCH

OCCUPIER TRENDS INVESTMENT TRENDS MARKET OUTLOOK

DUBLINOFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2018

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© HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight FrankThis report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight Frank to the form and content within which it appears. HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight Frank, Registered in Ireland No. 385044, PSR Reg. No. 001266. HT Meagher O’Reilly New Homes Limited trading as Knight Frank, Registered in Ireland No. 428289, PSR Reg. No. 001880. Registered Office – 20-21 Upper Pembroke Street, Dublin 2.

RESIDENTIAL

James Meagher, Director +353 1 634 2466 james.meagher@ie.knightfrank.com

Rena O’Kelly, Director +353 1 634 2466 rena.okelly@ie.knightfrank.com

Evan Lonergan, Director +353 1 634 2466 evan.lonergan@ie.knightfrank.com

Ray Palmer-Smith, Director +353 1 634 2466 ray.palmer-smith@ie.knightfrank.com

Peter Kenny, Associate Director +353 1 634 2466 peter.kenny@ie.knightfrank.com

Guy Craigie, Associate Director +353 1 634 2466 guy.craigie@ie.knightfrank.com

Barry Feenan, Associate Director +353 1 634 2466 barry.feenan@ie.knightfrank.com

RESEARCH

John Ring, Head of Research +353 1 634 2466 john.ring@ie.knightfrank.com

Robert O’Connor, Research Analyst +353 1 634 2466 robert.oconnor@ie.knightfrank.com

Investment Insight 2017 in Review

RESEARCHINVESTMENT INSIGHT - 2017 IN REVIEW

Despite a strong finish to the year - with €965.3 million transacting during Q4 - 2017 was defined by a stabilisation of investment volumes with approximately €2.3 billion worth of deals changing hands. While investor appetite for Irish real estate remained robust, volumes were constrained by a shortage of large lot-sized assets as a result of the decline in the deleveraging activity and loan portfolio sales which had characterised the market up until now. The lack of large lot-sized assets was best demonstrated by the fact that 17 deals in excess of €50.0 million occurred in 2016 as opposed to six deals in 2017, the largest of which

Office sales comprised of the largest proportion of activity with 39% of the market or €891.4 million. The lack of opportunities in the city centre induced investors to move up the risk curve with the purchase of suburban assets and forward-funding opportunities becoming more commonplace. This was highlighted by the sale of a confidential suburban asset for €145.0 million and Irish Life’s forward-funding of 13-18 City Quay for €126.3 million. Retail sales accounted for 32% of the total spend or €714.3 million. While half of this was driven by the disposal of shopping centres and retail parks, there was also significant interest in high-street retail assets,

€2.3bnworth of investmentstransacted in 2017

NORTHERNIRELAND

18%REST OF IRELAND

82%DUBLIN

FIGURE 2

Investment spend by location

Source: Knight Frank Research

FIGURE 3

Investment spend by sector

Source: Knight Frank Research

FIGURE 4

Investment spend by buyer origin

FIGURE 5

Investment spend by vendor origin

Source: Knight Frank Research

Other

United Kingdom

Europe

United States

Ireland

17%EUROPE

47%IRELAND

31%UNITED STATES

2%UNITED KINGDOM

2%OTHER

a4559d

83abb6

was Oaktree’s purchase of The Square Tallaght for €233.0 million.

Despite this, the market comfortably surpassed its 10-year average of €1.8 billion. Investors remained focused on Dublin, with the capital accounting for 82% of total spend.

demonstrated by Irish Life’s purchase of 100-101 Grafton Street for €50.1 million. Industrial sales commanded a 6% share of the market or €138.9 million with this asset type gaining in popularity in 2017 owing to its relatively higher yields and scope for rental appreciation as a result of the rapid growth in e-commerce. The largest industrial transaction was the off-market sale of a €30.0 million property in North Dublin. There was also heightened interest in alternative assets such as student accommodation, evidenced by the sale of the Montrose Student Residence to Hines for €37.6 million.

47% of all investment transactions in 2017 were purchased by Irish buyers which represented a significant shift in the origin of the buyer profile given that

4%UNITED KINGDOM

72%IRELAND

18%UNITED STATES

6%EUROPE

Residential

Student Accommodation

Multi Family

Hotel

Industrial

Mixed-Use

Retail

O�ce

6%INDUSTRIAL

39%OFFICE

32%RETAIL

4%MULTI-FAMILY

1%RESIDENTIAL

10%MIXED-USE

6%HOTEL

2%STUDENTACCOMMODATION

Source: Knight Frank Research

FIGURE 1

Irish commercial investment volumes € million

10 year average

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2014

Q2

2014

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2015

Q3

2015

Q4

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Q2

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Source: Knight Frank Research

Dublin Office Market Review & Outlook 2018

Industrial Insight 2017 in Review

RESEARCH

INDUSTRIAL MARKET INSIGHT - 2017 IN REVIEW

While rising employment levels and household incomes are underpinning increases in consumer spending, the proliferation of digital technologies means that a growing share of this expenditure is happening on-line. This was demonstrated in Eurostat’s 2017 survey on ICT which showed that 18% of Irish people purchased household goods on-line in 2017, up from 10% five years ago. This phenomenon has acted as a driving force behind recent demand for industrial space, with research by Standard Life Investments1 illustrating that e-commerce requires twice as much industrial space as traditional bricks and mortar retail for a given amount of sales.

Adding a further layer to demand, was the sharp increase in industrial production in 2017, with Investec’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index finishing the year at 59.1 – the strongest reading in the history of the series – up from 55.7 a year earlier.

of take-up in the smaller deal-size categories highlights the fact that demand for industrial space was constrained by a shortage of large, good quality, modern stock. This shortage placed upward pressure on prime rents which climbed from €98 per sq m at the beginning of the year to finish 2017 at €100 per sq m. Secondary rents remained unchanged at €54-€65 per sq m.

An important feature of the market in 2017 was the return to speculative development which was made viable by rising rental levels and strong demand from occupiers. Green REIT continued it’s expansion of the Horizon Logistics Park by completing Unit B2 (3,100 sq m), which was let to DFS, and by commencing the construction of four further units. Two of these, Units D2 (7,400 sq m) and D3 (4,400 sq m), have been let to Kuehne+Nagel

252,452sq m of take-up transacted in 2017

FIGURE 3

Deal size share of market in sq m

Source: Knight Frank Research

86,061 sq m worth of deals were recorded in Q4, bringing take-up for 2017 to 252,452 sq m. The largest transaction of 2017 in Dublin was the purchase of Unit 103 of the Northwest Business Park in Q4. The unit is comprised of 12,550 sq m of industrial space and was sold to IPUT for €12.2 million. Sales continue to represent a smaller proportion of transactions, accounting for 46% of deals in comparison to lettings which comprised 54%.

Dublin North-West and Dublin South-West continue to be the most sought after locations, accounting for 46% and 44% of take-up respectively. In terms of deal size, 68% of take-up was comprised of less than 5,000 sq m, 23% was between 5,001 and 10,000 sq m, while only 9% was in excess of 10,000 sq m. The relatively large proportion

10,001+

5,001-10,000

2,501-5,000

1,001-2,500

501-1,000

<500

19%1,001-2,500 sq m

31%2,501-5,000 sq m

8%<500 sq m

9%10,001+ sq m

9%501-1,000 sq m

23%5,001-10,000 sq m

FIGURE 2

Take-up by location

Source: Knight Frank Research

South East

North East

South West

North West46%NORTH-WEST

44%SOUTH-WEST

3%SOUTH-EAST7%

NORTH-EAST

and an unnamed luxury goods retailer, with completion expected in Q2 and Q3 2018. Meanwhile, Units D4 and D5, which will extend to 6,959 sq m in total, will be completed later this year. Similarly, at the Dublin Airport Logistics Park, Rohan Holdings began the construction of Condor House (2,787 sq m) and Finch House (3,716 sq m) with completion due in Q1 2018, while speculative development also began at the 4,645 sq m Heron House which will

FIGURE 1

Take-up by type

Source: Knight Frank Research

46%SALES

54%LETTINGS

Unit 103, Northwest Business Park, Ballycoolin, Dublin 15 which Knight Frank sold in Q4 2017.

1. Standard Life Investments, How e-commerce is boosting logistics real estate, September 2017 <https://www.standardlifeinvestments.com/market_views/real_insite/ecommerce.html>[accessed 6th February 2018]

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