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DUBAIWeekly Highlights - Domestic Developments- Global Business Developments- Global Economic Developments

August, Week 3

Economic Research Department

Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry

I. Domestic DevelopmentsHealth: UAE the least affected by the pandemic in the region

2Source: Ourworldindata, as of August 18, 2020

Figure 1 – Adjusted total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the GCC (cases per million person)

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II. Global Business Developments Travel and Tourism: heightened sense of uncertainty continues

Region

Plan to Resume Travel in Near Future (1-3 months)

Considering ResumingTravel in Near Future, but

No Definite Plans

Do not plan to resume travel in Near Future

Not Sure

August Poll July Poll August Poll July Poll August Poll July Poll August Poll July Poll

Asia Pacific (excl. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan)

11% 11% 35% 36% 35% 33% 19% 20%

-China 9% 10% 34% 32% 39% 38% 18% 21%

Europe 15% 17% 38% 42% 29% 23% 18% 18%

Latin America 9% 8% 34% 37% 36% 35% 21% 21%

United States 18% 24% 42% 41% 27% 21% 14% 14%

Canada 16% 22% 36% 39% 30% 22% 18% 17%

Middle East / Africa 8% 11% 34% 34% 39% 34% 18% 21%

All International Travel 9% 10% 39% 43% 34% 29% 18% 18%

All Domestic Travel 26% 34% 40% 40% 20% 12% 14% 13%

All Travel 14% 14% 47% 49% 24% 18% 15% 19%

Table 1 – Companies’ plans to resume business travel to select regions / countriesQ: You mentioned your company has canceled or suspended most or all trips to the following regions or countries. Thinking about each region or country, which best describes your company’s position?

Source: Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) Coronavirus Polls – August 13

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II. Global Business Developments Travel and Tourism: Americans’ perception flat in July

Source: MMGY Global survey

Figure 2 – U.S. Travel safety Barometer (June vs. July 2020)

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II. Global Business Developments Travel and Tourism: restoring consumer confidence key for recovery

Source: IATA

Figure 3 – Consumer and Business Confidence Indexes

• Global business confidence has continued its rebound inJuly as countries eased COVID-19 restrictions.

• Consumer sentiment remained subdued, however,despite a modest improvement in July.

• This is mainly caused by concerns about risingunemployment and the possibility for governments tophase out their support programs in the near future; inaddition to uncertainty around containing the pandemic.

Indexed,Jan 2015 = 100

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II. Global Business Developments Travel and Tourism: “screening” and “quarantine” preferred over “bans” since June

Source: WTO Secretariat

0 50 150

01 Aug*

15 Jul

01 Jul

15 Jun

01 Jun

15 May

01 May

15 Apr

01 Apr

15 Mar

01 Mar

15 Feb

01 Feb

15 Jan

01 Jan

100

Number of countries

None

Screening

Quarantine

Ban from some

Ban from all

*Data available for 177 jurisdictions until August 1 and 166 jurisdictions on August 1.

Figure 4 – International travel controls by stringency and date

7Source: OECD, FT

Figure 5 – GDP growth from previous quarter in major economies (% change)

III. Global Economic Developments G7: contraction seen across all G7 economies in Q2

-20.4%

-13.8%-12.4% -12.0%

-10.1% -9.5%-7.8%

-3.3%

11.5%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

China

UK France Italy Canada Germany USA Japan S.Korea

G7 economies

8Source: Bloomberg, Bank of France

Figure 6 – Shape of recovery across different segments in France

III. Global Economic Developments Europe: recovery risks plateauing