DSD-INT2016 Mathematical modeling of the influence of a navigable sea channel in the Northern part...

ОПЫТ ПОСТРОЕНИЯ СПЕЦИАЛИЗИРОВАННЫХ ИНФОРМАЦИОННЫХ СИСТЕМ (СИАС).…

1

Modelling.…

Mathematical modeling of the influence of a navigable

sea channel in the Northern part of the Gulf of Ob on the

hydrodynamic and thermohaline regime of the Ob

estuary

Boris Arkhipov, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia


2

Modelling.…

Research team

Arkhipov B. V. RAS, manual, calculation,

report

Solbakov V. V. RAS, calculation,

Shapochkin D. A. RAS calculation,

Stanovova, A.V., VNIRO, data preparation

Panchenko E. D., MGU data preparation

Lumens, M. H., MGU, data preparation

Fingert, E. A., MGU, data preparation

Consultants: Knizhnikov A. Yu. Head of

Russian part of WWF(World Wildlife Fund)

Alabyan, A. M. MGU

Fig.2. Map of the Kara sea

Fig.1. Location of the sea channel in the Northern

part of the Gulf of Ob (length 50 km, width 400 m,

average depth 4-5m)


3

Modelling.…

Spatial area and

time interval of

simulation

Hydro-

physical

processes

Computer model,

approximation,

technology, recourses

Input data

?

Fig.3. The various components of the modeling process

.

When addressing the

impact of the channel

on the intrusion of

salinity inside the Gulf

of Ob, the researcher is

faced with several

questions, requirements

and constraints within

which it needs to make

a decision.

The first of these problems is the choice of mathematical and computer models.

For the simulation was used a Delft3D three-dimensional model of the hydrodynamic and

thermohaline processes. Previously were used different models to study processes in the Kara sea

and the bays, as developed by the authors of this work and other specialists (particulary model of

Princeton University – POM). At this stage, Delft3D was chosen for the following reasons: high

technology (detailed development of pre and post processing, good interface, graphical

representation of results, etc.), ability to use different coordinate systems (Cartesian, spherical), the

possibility of considering different approaches for the approximation of vertical coordinates (σ –

system, z – system), different models of vertical turbulent mixing, etc. The developers have kindly

given us a license and we started modeling


4

Modelling.…

Fig.4.

1) minimum local area: the Northern boundary

runs along the Cape Drovyanoy, South border is South

of the channel, for example in the area of Tambey,

2) local area: North border passes through Cape

Drovyanoy, South and Eastern boundaries are held in

the mouth areas of the rivers (the Ob, Taz)

3) global scope, covering various parts of the

Kara sea,

4) combination of local and global regions.

1001

80

x мt с

мgHс

the Courant condition


5

Modelling.…

Data

The databank (DB) was created for the determining of BC and verification. DB is created

on the basis of public sources and consists of the following parts.

1) DB "Rivers" for river discharge from the Ob, Nadym, Pur, Taz, Yenisei, Pyasina. Data

sources for the database "River“ (a) Reference books, Hydrological annual editions,

other published materials, (b) Data Bank ArcticRIMS http://rims.unh.edu/ , c) Data

Bank https://gmvo.skniivh.ru, etc.

2) the DB "Hydrology" in salinity and temperature, sea level and currents of the Gulf of

Ob and the Kara sea. Sources of data include:

a) The Levitus data Bank

b) Various publications, journal articles, handbooks, reports and descriptions of

expeditions, etc.,.

3) the DB "Meteo" – meteo data.

a) GMS (Bugrino, Varandey, Maresale island Golomyanny, Dixon, Ust-Port, Tambey, a Wood

Cape, Cape Stone, 60 let VLKSM, Seyakha, Talibiyah, Vorkuta, Salekhard).

b) Open databases of the World's centers of the weather (Data Bank ArcticRIMS;The European

Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts NCEP).

c) Receive wind and meteorological data from weather maps, which in particular contain the

pressure field in the form of isobars


6

Modelling.…

The work is divided into two stages. The first

phase involves the model verification. The

second stage consists of prognostic calculations

of the intrusion of salinity in the Ob Bay with a

navigable channel and without it.

For verification were selected time frames:

1st time interval, covers the expedition of RV "Dmitry Mendeleev" from 15 August

to 15 October 1993 (nineteen ninety-third year),

The 2nd time interval, covers the expedition of RV "Ivan Kireyev" from 8

September to 7 October 2005 (two thousand fifth year)

3rd time interval, covers the expedition of NIS OTA_777 in the period from 29 July

to 17 August 2010 and 18 September 7, 2010 (two thousand and tenth year)

4-th time interval covers the period of setting the ABS to measure currents in the

summer and autumn months of 2012 (AARI).

For carrying out predictive calculations, we have analyzed the flow of rivers

from 1936 to 2012. Some years was selected as "extreme" with minimal flow. Was

additionally carried out calculations with the combination of minimum flows and

storm surge. The approach gave estimations of the penetration of salinity without

the channel and with channel possible 1 in every 50 - 100 years.


7

Modelling.…

The comparison of simulation results with currents observations of AARI

(September 2012) in the area of Sabetta

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1

-1

-0.75

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

-1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

Tidal

harmonic

u v

Obs Mod Obs Mod

K1 0.05 0.07 0.02 0.08

O1 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

P1 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.03

Q1 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03

K2 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06

M2 0.25 0.29 0.29 0.40

N2 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.04

S2 0.08 0.04 0.13 0.06

Модуль

00.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

14.8

15.8

16.8

17.8

18.8

19.8

20.8

21.8

22.8

23.8

24.8

25.8

26.8

27.8

28.8

29.8

30.8

31.8

1.9

2.9

3.9

4.9

5.9

6.9

7.9

8.9

9.9

10.9

11.9

12.9

13.9

14.9

15.9

16.9

17.9

18.9

19.9

20.9

21.9

22.9

23.9

24.9

25.9

26.9

27.9

28.9

29.9

30.9

1.1

0

Дата

Ско

ро

сть

теч

ен

ий

, м

/с

Наблюдения Модель

Fig. 5. Comparison of the non-tidal component of the

current velocities station 17797 horizon -2,2 m, a, b

– components in the module


8

Modelling.…

The scientific expedition 49 of the RV “Dmitry Mendeleev” from 15 August to 15

October 1993 (IO RAS)

Fig.7. Map of Stations, of 49 expedition of the RV “Dmitry Mendeleev”

from 15 August to 15 October 1993 (Gordeev V, Beeskow B., Rachold V.

Geochemistry of the Ob and Yenisey Estuaries: A Comparative Study. Die

"Berichte zur Polar- und Meeresforschung“, 565/2007 )

Fig. 6. Contours of salinity on the longitudinal

section of the Northern part of the Gulf of Ob

19-27 September 1993 (Bourenkov, Vasilkov,

1994)


9

Modelling.…

72ºN 71ºN 70ºN 69ºN 68ºN

Тамбей

Fig. 8. Comparison of fields of salinity on the section along the Gulf of Ob was obtained

in 49 voyage of RV “Dmitry Mendeleev” in the simulation on thin curvilinear grid with

cell size 110m (b) (near Tambey a value of about 9 psu).

Comparison of observation and simulation for the 49 expedition of the RV “Dmitry Mendeleev” from 15

August to 15 October 1993 (Bourenkov, Vasilkov, 1994)


10

Modelling.…

The scientific expedition of RV OTA_777 (OAO "southern shipping company")

29 July (clearing from ice, flood period) to 17 August and from 18 September to 7

October (autumn period of low water, the beginning of freezing) 2010.

Fig.9. The distribution of salinity in surface and bottom layer in summer polovodny

period: a,b - from 29 July to 17 August 2010,Mr. from 18 September to 7 October,

2010, d – cut in the same periods [S. A. Lapin, 2011, Okeanologiya, 2011, Vol. 51,

No. 6, pp. 984-993. Hydrological Characterization of the Ob’ Inlet in the Summer and

Autumn Seasons ]

а б в г

д


11

Modelling.…

72ºN

71ºN

70ºN

69ºN

68ºN м. Каменный

Сеяха

Тамбей

Новый

Порт

Яптиксале м. Трехбугорный

Fig. 10. Comparison of fields of salinity on the section along the Gulf of Ob

obtained in the expedition of 2010 of NIS OTA_777 (a) and in simulation on

curvilinear grid of 40×112 with a minimum width of 1 cell is 460 m .


27-Sept-2010 00:00:00

а

б


12

Modelling.…

Fig. 11. Comparison of currents outside of the channel (point 23.90) and inside the

channel (point 23,70, depth of 14m) in the calculations on the fine curvilinear grid. At

point (of 23.90) located outside of the channel hodograph velocity has an ellipsoidal

shape. At point (23,70), located within the channel, the velocity is mainly directed to

the North-South, and the hodograph of the velocity has a linear form.

100 см/сек

10 см/сек

100 см/сек


13

Modelling.…

THE RESULTS OF THE FORECAST (SCENARIO) MODELING

Fig.12. Runoff from 1936 to 2012 have been considered. A comparison of the total

runoff (Ob, Nadym, Pur, taz) of 1956 to the runoff of the 1967, 1968, 1969гг (a), 1969

to the runoff of the 1970, 1971, 1972 (b), 1973, 1974, 1975 (c) 1976, 1977, 1978(d)


14

Modelling.…

Fig. 13. The dependence of runoff for the interval from March 1 to may 20 from

minimum flow rate


15

Modelling.…

72ºN

71ºN

70ºN

69ºN


Сеяха

Тамбей

Новый

Порт


Fig.14. The distribution of salinity in the section along the Gulf of Ob in pre-flood

period of 1969 without the channel according to the simulation on the fine

curvilinear grid 48×130 with a width of 1 cell in the region of the trench 110 m wide

trench 440m (4 cell)




16

Modelling.…

72ºN

71ºN

70ºN

69ºN


Сеяха

Тамбей

Новый

Порт


Fig.15. The distribution of salinity in the section along the Gulf of Ob in pre-flood

period of 1969 with the channel according to the simulation on the fine

curvilinear grid 48×130 with a width of 1 cell in the region of the trench 110 m

wide trench 440m (4 cell)




17

Modelling.…

72ºN

71ºN

70ºN

69ºN


Сеяха

Тамбей

Новый

Порт


Fig. 16. The distribution of salinity in the section along the Gulf of Ob in the flood

period of 1969 without the channel according to the simulation on the fine

curvilinear grid 48×130 with a width of 1 cell in the region of the trench 110 m wide

trench 440m (4 cell)




18

Modelling.…

72ºN

71ºN

70ºN

69ºN


Сеяха

Тамбей

Новый

Порт


Fig. 17. The distribution of salinity in the section along the Gulf of Ob in the flood

period of 1969 with the channel according to the simulation on the fine curvilinear

grid 48×130 with a width of 1 cell in the region of the trench 110 m wide trench 440m

(4 cell)




19

Modelling.…

Pre flood (spring) Post flood (summer, autumn)

1 psu 2 psu 3 psu 10 psu 18psu 1 psu 2 psu 3 psu 10 psu 18psu

coarse curvilinear mesh 40×112 with a width of 1 cell in region the trench 460 m

trench width 1380 m (3 cells)


1969 8 12 15 50 37 20 17 25 34 36

a thin curvilinear mesh with number of cells 48×130, with the width of 1 cell in region the

trench 110, the trench width 440m (4 cell)


1969 8 5 5 8 11

Table 4. The increase in distance (km) of intrusion of salinity at the onset of channel


20

Modelling.…

Table 2. Position (km) of salinity isolines, obtained in the calculations,

possible one at fifty or one at hundred years

72ºN

71ºN

70ºN

69ºN


Сеяха

Тамбей

Новый

Порт


Pre flood (spring)

With out surge With surge

With out

channel

With

channe

l

With

out

channel

With channel

196

9

coarse curvilinear mesh 40×112 with a width of 1 cell in

region the trench 460 m trench width 1380 m (3 cells)

1

psu

7620 7612 7580 (68.6 ºN, south cape

Kamennyi) 7572

2

psu

7735 7723 7666 (68.8ºN south cape

Trehbugornyi) 7653

3

psu

7755 7740 7689 7666 (69ºN cape

Trehbugornyi) 7675

10

psu

7844 7794 7781 (70ºN south Seyaha)

7766

18

psu

7977 7940 7910 (north Seyaha,

71,1ºN)

7896


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Modelling.…

Pre flood (spring) Post flood (summer, autumn)

With out surge With surge

With out channel With channel With out channel With channel With out channel With channel

1969 a thin curvilinear mesh with number of cells 48×130, with the width of 1 cell in region

the trench 110, the trench width 440m (4 cell)

1 psu 7611.5

7609

2 psu 7722 7717

3 psu 7745 7740

10 psu 7788 7780

18 psu 7945 7934

Table 3. Intrusion distance (km) salinity based on the calculation results (fine mesh 1969)


22

Modelling.…

Вынос соли

-8.0E+11

-6.0E+11

-4.0E+11

-2.0E+11

0.0E+00

2.0E+11

4.0E+11

6.0E+11

8.0E+11

01

.01

08

.01

15

.01

22

.01

29

.01

05

.02

12

.02

19

.02

26

.02

05

.03

12

.03

19

.03

26

.03

02

.04

09

.04

16

.04

23

.04

30

.04

07

.05

14

.05

21

.05

28

.05

04

.06

11

.06

18

.06

25

.06

02

.07

09

.07

16

.07

23

.07

30

.07

06

.08

13

.08

20

.08

27

.08

03

.09

Дата

М, кг

без траншеи

с траншеей

Вынос соли

-6.5E+11

-6.3E+11

-6.1E+11

-5.9E+11

-5.7E+11

-5.5E+11

-5.3E+11

-5.1E+11

01.0

4

08.0

4

15.0

4

22.0

4

29.0

4

Дата

М, кг


с траншеей

Вынос соли

7.0E+11

7.1E+11

7.2E+11

7.3E+11

7.4E+11

7.5E+11

7.6E+11

7.7E+11

7.8E+11

15

.07

22

.07

29

.07

05

.08

12

.08

Дата

М, кг


с траншеей

Fig. 18. Integrated advective

arrival/departure of salinity

through the cross sectional

area of bar


23

Modelling.…

Conclusions

1. Conducted verification calculations of the process of intrusion of salinity in

the Ob Bay for the period of the 49 flight of the RV “Dmitry Mendeleev” 15 August to

15 October 1993 . for the period of the expedition of RV "Ivan Kireyev" from 8

September to 7 October 2005, [3], for the expedition of NIS OTA_777 in the period

of September 18-October 7, 2010, in the period August –September 2012[4,6],

setting of ABS in the Northern part of the Gulf of Ob for the measurement of

currents.

2. Verification calculations were conducted on 2 grids: curvilinear mesh of

39×74, the width of 1 cell in the field of 703m trench, trench 2 cells, the width of the

trench 1407м; curvilinear grid 48×93, the width of 1 cell in the region of the trench

110, the trench 4 of the cell, the trench width 449м. A comparison is conducted of

the calculated data for the two networks. The results showed some stability during

the transition from coarser to finer grid. The range of penetration of salt in the

calculations on coarse grid more than the calculations on a fine grid.

Results shows not bad coincidence of calculations with observations.


24

Modelling.…

4. A comparison is coducted of the data obtained in the variants without

channel to channel. The results show on the rough curvilinear grid with cell size

703m and channel width 1407м contour psu 3 moves inward of the bay by about

50 km, and the salinity in the area of Tambey growth of 5-6 psu. Thin curvilinear

grid with a minimum cell size of 110m and width of the channel 440m contour psu

3 moves inward of the bay by about 2-5 km, and the salinity in the area of Tambey

increases to 3-4 psu. I.e. the effect of the channel has decreased in 2-2,5 times

with the decrease of its width by 3-4 times.

5.The calculations show that the main factors influencing the penetration of

salinity in the Ob Bay, are the river flow and wind surge from the Kara sea and

also, to a lesser extent, tide. The most deep penetration of salinity inside of the

bay occurs when there are the combination of minimum rivers flows and surges

from the Kara sea. Other factors such as thermal processes, the formation and

melting of ice, the water exchange through the sea surface although providing

some additional influence, but are of secondary importance.


25

Modelling.…

7. For the scenario (prognostic) analysis, the total runoff of the main rivers (the Ob,

Nadym, PUR, Taz) for the period from 1936 to 2012. Based on this analysis, selected key

years (candidates to the extreme), in terms of minimum runoff in such years are 1956 and

1969гг, and from the point of view of the minimum flow 1954. For these years, as for several

others, have carried out calculations of the penetration of salinity in the Ob Bay.

8. From the results of the scenario (forecast) calculations follows that in pre flood (spring)

period maximum penetration of salinity due to the river flow fluctuations occur in 1969. It

is seen that in normal conditions (no channel), 1 psu contour is located on the coordinate 7620

km (68.5 ºC.Sh., 20km North of M. Stone), 3 psu – 7755км (69,7 ºC.Sh. 10km to the North of

Yaptiksale), and 10 psu – 7844км (70.6 per ºC.Sh. 40km North Seyahi). The appearance of the

channel in the calculations on coarse grid shifts to the South the contour 1 psu on 7-18 km 3

psu – 8 - 15 km and 10 psu – 9 - 57км depending on the year. In the calculations on a fine grid

shift decreases and reaches a maximum for 1 psu – 10 km, 3 psu – 5 km, 10 psu – 12 km, 18

psu 11 km. From the results it follows that the farther from the channel region is the contour,

the less affected by his influence.

9. Calculations of salt water intrusion in 1969 in a joint account runoff and surges show

that the contour 1 psu was on the coordinate 7580км (without the channel) and 7572км

(channel) (68.6 ºC.Sh., 20-30 km South cape Stone), 3 psu – 7689 (without the channel) and

7675км (channel) (69,2 ºN cape Trehbugornyi), 10 psu – 7781 (without the channel) and

7766км (with channel) (70,2 ºN Seyakha), 18psu - 7910 (no channel) and 7896км (channel)

(71,1 ºN). These distances can be taken as an estimate of penetration of salinity in the Ob Bay

in the presence of channel possible one in every 50 - 100 years.


26

Modelling.…

10. Comparison of results of calculations of integral receipt of salinity inside the

Gulf of Ob to the channel without the channel provides that the construction of the

channel leads to an increase in revenues of salinity inside the Gulf of Ob by about

5%, the duration of the period of time exceeding the maximum value of the

background state is approximately two weeks.

11. From the results pertaining to the flood period, it follows that when the

increase in flow of salt water pushed into the bar area (and bar) in the presence of

channel as well as in its absence, i.e. any accumulation of salty waters in southern

areas of the Ob Bay is not happening. The system behaves like a "coarse" dynamic

system: when you change a parameter there is a shift in balance, but a qualitative

restructuring of the system occurs.

DSD-INT2016 Mathematical modeling of the influence of a navigable sea channel in the Northern part...

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