DSD-INT 2015 - The river basin explorer – Marieke Fennema, Witteveen+Bos, Clara Chrzanowski,...
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Transcript of DSD-INT 2015 - The river basin explorer – Marieke Fennema, Witteveen+Bos, Clara Chrzanowski,...
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The River Basin Explorer A modelling tool for river basin planning in Turkey
Clara Chrzanowski ([email protected]) &
Marieke Fennema ([email protected])
Delft Software Days 2015
November 2nd 2015
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Bűyűk Menderes catchment
E. Meijers E. Meijers
Water body classes
Artificial
Heavily modified
Natural
Basin: 24873 km²
E. Meijers
E. Meijers
INDUSTRIES Largeherds.co.nz AGRICULTURE
RESERVOIRS E. Meijers
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River Basin Explorer
0D-RIBASIM
GIS maps
Networks
Meteo
Flow
Hydrology Ecology
Species
EQR
EKF
Ecological
knowledge rules
PUNN
WFD-Explorer
Loads
Substances
Processes
Water Quality
WFD Explorer schematization
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Emissions
Retention
Workflow of modelling activities
WFD Explorer schematization
Hydrology
(RIBASIM) Domestic Industrial Diffuse
Model
results Monitoring data
Calibrate, validate
Import
flows
Ecological
Module
Ecological
Key Factors
Measures
Ecology
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Hydrology
RIBASIM is a water balance tool, able to match water demands and
supplies.
Objective: to prepare the hydrological input for the WFD-Explorer
providing
• flow through all the WFD water bodies
• In a dry, a wet and a normal year
• On a quarterly basis
Used in WFD-Explorer:
• To calculate transport of pollutants
• To assess difference between natural and artificial flow regime
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RIBASIM – WFD-Explorer coupling
Water bodies = Surface water
units
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WFD Explorer schematization
Hydrology
(RIBASIM) Domestic Industrial Diffuse
Emissions
Model
results Monitoring data
Calibrate, validate
Import
flows
Retention
Ecological
Module
Ecological
Key Factors
Measures
Water Quality
Ecology
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Water Quality
Domestic Industrial Diffuse
Emissions
Animal/ or manure
Land use
Fertilizer
Septic tanks
Treated sewer water (WWTP)
Untreated sewer water
Industrial plants
Regulation tables
• steady state
• Σ Qin = Σ Qout
• Σ Min = Σ Mout + Mretention
• simplified first order decay processes to model retention processes
• seasonal intervals of 4 seasons per year
Point sources Diffuse sources
Focus on nitrogen, phosphorus and COD
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WFD Explorer schematization
Hydrology
(RIBASIM) Domestic Industrial Diffuse
Emissions
Model
results Monitoring data
Calibrate, validate
Import
flows
Retention
Ecological
Module
Ecological
Key Factors
Measures
Water Quality
Ecology
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Calibration (1): TP
1. Hydrological analysis:
• Add flows per capita in RIBASIM
• Minimal outflow of Cine reservoir
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Calibration (2): TP
2. Time dependent diffuse sources
• They come with the runoff of the land
• Peak in winter season
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Calibration (3): TP
3. Add decay:
• First order decay for TN, TP and COD (k =0.01 d-1)
• Related to residence time
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Calibration (4): TP
4. Add temperature:
• Decay is dependent on water temperature:
k = k20 * theta(T-20) with theta = 1.047
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Monitoring locations for validation/calibration
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WQ Results Downstream: near Soke
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WQ Results Upstream: Denizli tributary
07-21-00-002
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TN: Modeled (2010) vs. Observed (2010)
Factor = Modelled / Observed:
• Green: good aggreement
• Pink: Moderate aggreement
(underestimate)
• Red: Bad agreement (underestimate)
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WFD Explorer schematization
Hydrology
(RIBASIM) Domestic Industrial Diffuse
Emissions
Model
results Monitoring data
Calibrate, validate
Import
flows
Retention
Ecological
Module
Ecological
Key Factors
Measures
WQ and Ecology
Ecology
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Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
EQR = f (KF) Ecological quality ratio : WFD (0-1) expression of ecological quality for
different biological groups (fish, macrophytes, algae, ...)
Key factors for ecology: most determining factors for ecological water
quality (country specific Turkey, NL)
Function calculated with the use of a deep learning network
-PUNN (product unit neural network)
-Regression trees
-Standard neural network
Predicts the effect of
measures
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Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
EQR = f (KF) Ecological quality ratio : WFD (0-1) expression of ecological quality for
different biological groups (phytoplankton, phytobentos, macro-
invertebrates, macrophytes, fish)
Water Framework Directive:
European directive on
(ecological) water quality
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Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
PUNN: product-unit neural network
(deep lakes)
K
F
E
Q
R
Training set and validation set
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Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
Work steps to derive ecological knowledge rules:
- Water types clustering (enough data)
- Key factors for ecology
- Gather EQR data (WFD monitoring) and build up a data matrix
- PUNN calculations to determine ecological knowledge rules
- Expert validation
- Implementation in the WFD explorer
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Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
Water type clustering & key factors for ecology
Turkish ecology experts from:
Universities
Ministry
Monitoring departments
Water institutes
Several experts sessions to determine
which measurable factors influence eco-
logical water quality the most, and to
define clusters of water types
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Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
Water type clustering & key factors for ecology
rivers lakes
fast flowing , high rivers
fast flowing perma-nent low
fast flowing temporal low
Slow flowing rivers
Deep lakes (saline and fresh)
COD X X X X X
Temperature X X X X
tot-N X X
tot-P X X
Modifications X X X X
Conductivity X X
Toxic elements X X X X X
Artificial flow regime
X X X X
Suspended solids X X X X X
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Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
Results:
Phyto-plankton
Phyto-benthos
Macro-phytes
Macro invertebrates
Fish
Deep lakes -
Fast flowing high rivers ++ ++ +
Fast, low and permanent rivers
++ +/- +
Slow flowing rivers ++ +/- + +
Fast, low and temporal rivers
++ + +
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Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
EQR at slow flowing rivers
Training set Test set perc. inside 0.10
RMSE coeff. of determ.
perc. inside 0.10
RMSE coeff. of determ.
Phytobenthos 92 % 0.044 0.94 83 % 0.064 0.89
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Conclusions of the Buyuk Menderes project
• Data availability and accessibility is an issue!
• First step in creating a River Basin Management model
• Model is not perfect can be improved
• Hydrological improved rainfall runoff concepts
• Emissions and water quality use of monitoring data of point
sources
• Ecology enhanced EKF, more data to train PUNN
• Model can be used to:
• Evaluate relative contribution of different sources
(domestic/industrial/agriculture)
• Identify and evaluate measures
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Stakeholder process
• Explanation use of models in water resource management
• Dutch water board: use of WFD-Explorer in Dutch measure
strategies
• Use of model to determine strategies with stakeholders
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Questions
?