DSB Briefing to AF Energy Forum Mar 08 v2
Transcript of DSB Briefing to AF Energy Forum Mar 08 v2
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REPORT
OF THE
DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARDTASK FORCE ON
DOD ENERGY STRATEGY
Mr. Chris DiPettoTask Force Co-Executive Secretary
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Key Task Force Membership
Study Co-Chairmen Dr James Schlesinger Gen Michael Carns, USAF Ret
Executive Secretaries Mr Chris DiPetto ODUSD (A&T) Mr Jack Taylor ODUSD (S&T)
Policy Panel Chairman Mr James Woolsey, BAH
Platform Panel Co-Chairs ADM Greg Johnson, USN GEN Greg Martin, USAF
Facilities Panel Chairman VADM Al Konetzni, USN
R&D Panel Co-Chairs Dr Ed Reedy, GTRI Dr Jeff Tester, MIT
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2008 DSB Energy Task Force
Identify opportunities to reduce fuel demandby deployed forces and assess cost,operational and force structure effects
Identify opportunities to deploy renewableand alternative energy sources for facilitiesand deployed forces
Identify institutional barriers to achieving thistransition
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DSB Energy Strategy Task Force
DesiredDoD Strategic Outcomes Assured power for critical DOD capabilities
Produce more warfighting performance for less energy
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DoD Energy Observations
Electricity (Facilities) Largest US user of electricity (~ $2B price tag.*)
DoD draws power from a fragile and vulnerable grid
Drives all critical C4ISR and > 500 CONUS installations
Petroleum (Tactical Systems) CONUS sources of DoD fuel for readiness, training & deployment
Overseas sources sustain deployed DoD operations
DoD uses ~1.8% of US totalno near-term alternative ~$10B * Mobility (ships, planes, vehicles) consume 74% of DoDs energy use
Jet fuels: DoD is 17% of the US market; transports consume 53% of it
Electricity (Tactical Systems) FOB electricity produced by gen-sets using JP8, creating fuel burden
Soldier systems require troops to haul batteries, impedingeffectiveness
* FY06 DoD Energy Report to Congress
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Problem with Electricity - Resilience
DoD installations rely almost exclusively on outside-the-fence commercial power Must ensure key functions are performed during extended power
loss
Temporary backup power is available for some critical mission
activities
The grid is remarkably fragile and an attractive target Control systems are continuously probed
Single point failures
Resilience: ability to resist failure and rapidly recover from
breakdowns if they occur
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Remedies for Facilities Electricity
Demand Side Management Aggressive efficiency improvements
Procurement policies
MILCON / O&M energy standards
Supply Side Options
On- or Near-Site Generation Islanding and Distributed Generation
Potential Sources Renewables (e.g, wind, solar geothermal)
Conventional (natural gas, nuclear, coal)
Grid Reliability Improvements Outside DoD direct control
Requires FERC, PUC, Industry concurrence
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Problem with Petroleum - Endurance
Energy logistics is a significant operational and financial burden
70% of warfighting logistics by weight is fuel
Protecting fuel convoys is dangerous business
Diverts combat forces to force protection role
Creates operational vulnerabilities and constrains force movement
Big payoffs for reduced fuel demand Reductions in combat use compounds through logistics structure
Enables force allocation from tail to tooth
Lower consumption damps budget effects of price volatility
Reduces vulnerability of combat forces to supply chain disruption
Endurance: ability to sustain operations for an extended time
without support or replenishment
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Mandate descriptions of how materiel solutions fuel
demand impacts operation capability in an agreed set ofDPS to frame the efficiency/effectiveness trades
Develop a scalable methodology for the Energy KPP forall Requirements (CJCSI 3170)
Relevant Processes
Acquisition
Get delivered fuel (logistics) and its related variables built into everyService & Joint campaign model, wargame, force planning conferenceand scenario build
Set targets for reducing the fuel delivery tail within the SSSP/ISPs
Evolve beyond single program reviews considerprograms/platfoms fuel demand within scenario-based futureforce packages
Require SAEs-PEOs-PMs to speak on portfolio of capabilitiesand the programs role & support demands at milestone reviews
JCIDS
Service & JointForce Planning
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Five Recommendations
1. Implement Energy KPP (requirements) and FullyBurdened Cost of Fuel (acquisition)
2. Reduce risk of losing critical missions at installationsby developing resilience as installation design criteria
3. Establish DoD-wide strategic plan with metrics,responsibility and accountability
4. Invest in new energy technologies to a levelcommensurate to their value to the Department
5. Change operational procedures to reduce energydemand policies and incentives
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Backup Slides
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Risk for Grid Outages
1. Overload
Far less margin
2003 cascading power failure
2. Natural Disasters
3. Deliberate Attack easy target Not designed to withstand a coordinated attack
Little stockpiling of critical backup hardware
Cyber attempted SCADA attacks
4. Fuel Supply interruptions
Grid is brittle, centralized, capacity-strained, and largely
unprotected from physical attack.
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Problem with Electricity ResilienceContinued
Mission critical loads dependent on grid and backup gen-sets Command & Control, Communications & Computers (C4)
Situational Awareness Intelligence, Surveillance &Reconnaissance (ISR) systems and capabilities
Military strategic offense and defense capabilities strategicdetection and assessment, decision making and assuredconnectivity to offense and defense strategic weapons systems
Grid built for efficiency, not resilience; reserve capacity greatly
reduced since de-regulation Duration and reliability of gen-set inconsistent with risk of long
duration grid outage and criticality of loads
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Remedies for Facilities Electricity
Demand Side Management Aggressive efficiency improvements Technically feasible
Economically preferable over facility life cycle
Enabler for renewable sources to meet backup and primary powerrequirements
Significant DoD energy cost savings and risk reduction can berealized by adding risk of disruption metric to existing energyconsumption targets in DoD facility contract specifications
Over FY08 - FY13, DoD planning to spend ~$60B for new construction
and ~$44B for maintenance & renovation Construction criteria and maintenance practices key drivers in future
energy demand
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Problems with Petroleum - Endurance(Tactical systems)
Aircraft fuel use (67% of total)
60% of airlift and tanker aircraft use designs over a half century old
Vertical lift fleet uses design configuration between a third and half century old
Technologies exist and are available now to improve large aircraft flight efficiency by afactor of 2 and vertical lift efficiencies manyfold
Efficiency enhances range, endurance, payload and reduces logistics
In the air refueling case, fully burdened cost of fuel is several-fold the purchase cost
Land Forces Fuel Use
Weightis the primary driver of fuel consumptionup to 75% of the energy
Even in some land system cases, fully burdened cost of fuel is at least several-foldgreater than purchase cost (can be an order of magnitude greater in extreme cases)
Fuel efficiency at point of use converts lots of soldiers from logistics and supplyprotection into combat forces FCS warning light is blinking
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Problems with Petroleum - Endurance(Soldiers and FOBs)
Generators & Batteries Land forces are also large consumers of electricity, primarily
portable
Generators are ubiquitous in combat areas, consume largeamounts of fuel, and require substantial resources
Batteries are critical to the soldier, and ~15-20% of total weightof the troopers pack
Technology thrust needed to reduce weight, size and numbersof generators and batteries
Technologies and logistics behavior are available now to
substantially improve FOB fuel use for hotel load and landvehicles
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
FuelC
onsumptionperSoldier[gal/soldier/day]
1944
Korean War
Vietnam War
Iraq War
DesertStorm
1.8 million gallons
1,075,681 soldiers Future Wars
20044.1 million gallons150,000 soldiers
WW I
CivilWar
Region ofProjected FuelConsumption
Best Case
Worst Case
Military Fuel Consumption TrendsTechnological advances, especially in C4ISR, futuredirected energy weapons, and unmanned vehicles,
are driving fuel consumption almost exponentially.
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DoD Energy Consumption- FY06 Compared to FY05 -
MarineDiesel
Buildings25%
Mobility(aircraft, ships,vehicles)
73%
Excluded1.5%
Other0.2%
Coal2%Steam
1%AutoGas
1%
Electricity12%
FuelOil3%
NaturalGas 8%
Jet Fuel52%
12%
FY06 Total Energy Cost: $13.6BTotal BTUs: 832.5 TStandard price per barrel: $91.52 (avg)
FY06 Consumption
MarineDiesel
Buildings22%
Mobility(aircraft, ships,vehicles)
74%
Industrial
3%
Exempt
1%
Other0.8%
Coal1.6%Steam
1%AutoGas
0.7%
Electricity
11%
FuelOil3%
NaturalGas 8%
Jet Fuel58%
Auto Diesel 2.3%
13%
FY05 Consumption
FY05 Total Energy Cost: $10.9BTotal BTUs: 919.3 trillionStandard price per barrel: $61.88 (avg) *2006 DoD Energy Report
Auto Diesel 8%