Drought Monitor Primer Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought...
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Transcript of Drought Monitor Primer Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought...
![Page 1: Drought Monitor Primer Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649e4a5503460f94b3ea71/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Drought Monitor Primer
Mark Svoboda, Climatologist
Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought Mitigation Center
University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA
NIDIS ACF Workshop, Albany, Georgia November 18, 2010
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The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS)
Allows for early drought detection
Improves response (proactive)
Data and tools for decision support
“Triggers” actions within a drought plan
A critical mitigation action
Foundation of a drought plan
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Components of a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)
Monitoring AND Forecasting
Access to timely data
Synthesis/analysis of data used to “trigger” set actions within a drought plan
Tools for decision makers
Efficient dissemination/communication (WWW, media, extension, etc.)
Drought risk planning
Education and Awareness
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A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map
“Convergence of evidence” approach
Trying to capture these characteristics:the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity)
spatial extent
probability of occurrence
Impacts
Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks
The Drought Monitor Concept
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Objectives
“Fujita-like” scale
NOT a forecast!
NOT a drought declaration!
Identify impacts (A, H)
Assessment of current conditions
Incorporate local expert input
Be as objective as possible
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U.S. Drought Monitor Map
Drought Intensity Categories
D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile)
D1 Drought – Moderate (20%tile)
D2 Drought – Severe (10%tile)
D3 Drought – Extreme (5%tile)
D4 Drought – Exceptional (2%tile)
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Essential Tools!
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U.S. Drought Monitor Integrates Key Drought Indicators:
- Palmer Drought Index- SPI- KBDI- Modeled Soil Moisture- 7-Day Avg. Streamflow- Precipitation Anomalies
Growing Season:- Crop Moisture Index- Sat. Veg. Health Index- Soil Moisture- Mesonet data
In The West:- SWSI- Reservoir levels- Snowpack (SNOTEL)- SWE- StreamflowCreated in ArcGIS
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The Importance of Local Expert Input
The U.S. Drought Monitor Team Relies on Field Observation Feedback from the Local Experts for Impacts Information & “Ground Truth”
Listserver (270 Participants: 2/3 Federal, 1/3 State/Univ.)
Local NWS & USDA/NRCS Offices
State Climate Offices
State Drought Task Forces
Regional ClimateCenters
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The Drought Monitor is Widely Used
Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NWS DGT/State drought plan triggers
~3.5M+ page views and ~2M+ visitors/year
Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/Internet /radio/ Nightly Network News/CNN/NPR/etc.
Presidential/Congressional/Governor briefings
NIDIS portal/portlet
A model of interagency collaboration
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ACF DEWS:Where to from here?
Input into DM from GA SCOInput into DM from FL Team (SCO Coordinates)Input into DM from AL MAG/DIG (SCO Coordinates)Monitoring of impacts is virtually non-existentMany indicators/indices/models don’t reflect reality in various regions, or for various season(s)……or for both!Early warning/monitoring just one key: THEN WHAT? Need linkages to risk/vulnerability assessment and planning for adaptationNIDIS Portal/Engaging Preparedness Community
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http://www.drought.unl.edu/plan/DRC.htm