Drought in the African Sahel Alessandra Giannini 4 December 2006.
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Transcript of Drought in the African Sahel Alessandra Giannini 4 December 2006.
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Drought in the African Sahel
Alessandra Giannini4 December 2006
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http://www.pbs.org/wnet/africa/explore/sahel/sahel_overview.html
the Sahel
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r = 0.60
A. Giannini, R. Saravanan and P. Chang, 2003. Science, 302, 1027-1030Also see e.g. Bader and Latif, 2003 (GRL); Lu and Delworth, 2005 (GRL)
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OUTLINE:
1. climate dynamics/predictability2. climate change3. education/outreach/science-informed policy
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1. climate dynamics/predictability2. climate change3. education/outreach/science-informed policy
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Gul
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Giannini et al., 2003 (Science), 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)
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Giannini et al., 2003 (Science), 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)
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Giannini et al 2003
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.
dynamics: warmer oceans v. stronger monsoons?
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Giannini et al., 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)
200 hPa h, (u,v)
precipitation
SST, 850hPa (u,v)
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Giannini et al., 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)
200 hPa h, (u,v)
precipitation
SST, 850hPa (u,v)
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N. Zeng, Science, 7 November 2003
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SST
CMAP
ECPCfiltered
SSTanomaly
ECPC
Tippett 2006 (GRL)
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August 1984
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1. climate dynamics/predictability2. climate change3. education/outreach/science-informed policy
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NASA/GISS analysis of surface temp – linear trend 1950-2000Hansen et al. 1999 (J. Geophys. Res.)
regression of NASA/NSIPP1 Sahel PC and sfc tempGiannini et al. 2003, 2005
IPCC 4th Assessment Report (4AR) simulations with 19 modelsBiasutti and Giannini 2006 (GRL)
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19 Coupled GCM : XX-PI precipitation/surface temperature changes
Biasutti and Giannini, 2006 (GRL)
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Biasutti and Giannini, 2006 (GRL)
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Held et al., PNAS 2005
GFDL CM2.0 GMAO(NSIPP1) NCAR CAM3
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surface air temperature
(minus global mean)
precipitation
Haarsma et al., GRL 2005 2050-2080 minus 1950-1980
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1. climate dynamics/predictability2. climate change3. education/outreach/science-informed policy
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Implications:1. “Farmers freed of blame for Sahel drought” (SciDev.Net)2. Policy/intervention issues:
a. spatial scales: from desertification to global warmingb. temporal scales: from early warning to structural change
(lessons have already been learned from the past 30 years or so!)
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how to use scientific knowledge?- global/regional policy- local education/outreach
what are local perceptions on the causes of drought?how does Western science relate to them?
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Lu and Delworth, 2005 (Geophys. Res. Lett.)
The relative roles of Atlantic, Indian and Pacific SSTs
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19 Coupled GCM :Sahel XX-PI Rainfall Change
Biasutti and Giannini, 2006 (GRL)
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Courtesy of Isaac Held, Jian Lu, Tom Delworth et al, GFDL
21st century outlook for Sahel precipitation
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Indramayu, Jawa Barat
Bali Nusa Tenggara Timur
IRI Asia-Pacific Regional Program project on:“Climate forecast applications for disaster mitigation in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam”
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SON(0) 1979-2004 JFM(1)
1950-1975
Giannini, Robertson, Qian, Li H. ...
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DJF
(1)
SO
N(0
)
RegCM3 at 25km resolution(Joshua Qian, Huilan Li)
DJF
(1)
SO
N(0
)