Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation
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Transcript of Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation
Presentation by Gabrielle Kissinger and Martin Herold
COP 18 side-event, 26 November 2012, Doha, Qatar
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Authors:Gabrielle Kissinger, Lexeme ConsultingMartin Herold, Wageningen University
Veronique De Sy, Wageningen University
Madepossiblebyfinancialassistancefrom:UnitedKingdomDepartmentsforEnergyandClimateChange(DECC)
andInternationalDevelopment(DFID)andTheGovernmentofNorway’sInternationalClimateandForest
Initiative
AppendixIIoftheDecember2010CancúnDecision1/CP.16requeststheSBSTAto:
(a)Identifylanduse,land‐usechangeandforestryactivitiesindevelopingcountries,inparticularthosethatarelinkedtothedriversofdeforestationandforestdegradation,identifytheassociatedmethodologicalissuestoestimateemissionsandremovalsresultingfromtheseactivities,andassessthepotentialcontributionoftheseactivitiestothemitigationofclimatechange,andreportonthefindingsandoutcomesofthisworktotheConferenceoftheParties(COP)atitseighteenthsessionontheoutcomesoftheworkreferredtointhisparagraph;
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
1. Assessmentofcurrentandfuturedrivers
2. Theroleofdriversinnationalforestmonitoringandindevelopingforestreference(emission)levels
3. DriversinREDD+policydevelopmentandimplementation
4. Interventionsatrelevantscalesandkeyactors
5. Conclusionsandrecommendations
Overviewofpresentation:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Definitions:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Proximate/directcauses:humanactivitiesorimmediateactionsthatdirectlyimpactforestcoverandlossofcarbon Deforestation:commercialagriculture,subsistenceagriculture,
mining,infrastructureandurbanexpansion
Forestdegradation:logging,fires,livestockgrazinginforest,fuelwoodcollectionandcharcoalproduction
• Underlying/indirectcauses:complexinteractionsoffundamentalsocial,economic,political,culturalandtechnologicalprocesses‐oftendistantfromtheirareaofimpact Importanttoaddressthemseparatelyandexaminethemat
variousscalesforspecificanalysisandinterventionstrategies
Assessmentofcurrentdrivers
Assessmentofcurrentdrivers:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Country REDD+ readiness activities – first inventoryof what countries identify as relevant and importantdrivers
Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate driversof deforestation of 25 tropical countries (Mathews etal., 2010), CIFOR country profiles and the UNFCCCnational communications
nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46non-Annex I countries (78% of total forestarea in 2010)
Hosonuma et al. 2012, ERL:http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044009
Direct/proximatedrivers:Deforestation
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Direct/proximatedrivers:Deforestation
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Agricultureestimatedtodrive80%ofdeforestationworldwide
• Commercialagriculture:biggestdriverinLatinAmerica(2/3oftotaldeforestedarea)
• CommercialagricultureinAfricaand(sub)tropicalAsia(1/3oftotaldeforestedarea)andofsimilarimportancetosubsistenceagriculture
Direct/proximatedrivers:Degradation
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• LatinAmericaand(sub)tropicalAsia:Commercialtimberextractionandlogging>70%oftotaldegradation
• Africa:Fuelwoodcollection,charcoalproduction
Indirectorunderlyingdrivers
• Economicgrowth– Basedonexportofprimarycommodities
• Populationgrowth/Urbangrowth• Demandfortimberandagriculturalproducts
• Countries(31nationalREDD+R‐PPs):– Weakforestsectorgovernanceandinstitutions,conflictingpoliciesbeyondforestsectorandillegalactivity(93%)
– Populationgrowth(51%)– Povertyandinsecuretenure(both48%)
FutureFuture
Theroleofdriversinnationalforestmonitoringandindevelopingforestreference(emission)levels
Identifyingforestchangedrivers:importantdatastreamforREDD+designandimplementation:
•DefineREDD+interventions(priorities)•Engagementwithnon‐forestsectors
•Trackthemtoassesstheimpactofmitigation
•DefineprioritiesformonitoringandMRV
•NationalcircumstancesforadjustingR(E)Ls
•RequiresresourcesandeffortsadditionaltoestimationandreportingofGHGemissions
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Nationalcapacitiesformonitoringdrivers:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Analysingandassessingproximatedrivers
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Linkingforestareachangestospecificactivitiesandfollow‐uplanduse(remotesensinganalysis)
• Spatialcontextandlocation,andotherfeatures(e.g.roads,settlements)canhelpininterpretation
• Localandregionalknowledge(expertsandcommunities),groundobservations
• GHGemissionsfromdrivers:commonlynotavailableonnationallevel
• SomeactivitiesorlandusesalsoresultinadditionalGHGemissions;i.e.,agriculture
Linkingareachangemonitoringwithproximatedrivers:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Forestcarbonstockimpactofdifferentactivities
Time
Carbon
stock
Prim
aryforest
Deforestation
Continuo
usloggin
g
Shiftin
gcultivation
Humaninduceddisturbancecausinglossofforest:fire,clearing,selectiveextraction,…
Naturalre
growth
• LinkbetweendeforestationpatternsandunderlyingcausesimportantfordevelopingRL/RELs–butoftendifficult
• Statisticalanalysisandmodellingusingeconomicanddemographicindicators,analysisofpolicyandgovernanceissues(global,national)
• Requirednationalandlocaldataoftennoteasilyavailable:scatteredamongdifferentsources,sectorsandministries
Analysingandassessingunderlyingdrivers
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• RELfirstkey“number”tobeprovidedbyREDD+countries
• Historicaldataandunderstandingforestchangepatterns
andunderlyingcausesareimportant
– totakenationalcircumstancesintoaccount,
– toconstructscenariosthatdeviatefromhistoricaltrends.
• Theavailabilityofdataondriversisuncertaininmany
REDD+countries
– Stepwiseapproachasstartingpointtomatchavailable
dataandtheirqualitywiththechoiceofreferencelevelmethods,itsuncertaintiesandcountrycircumstances
Roleofdriversfordevelopingforestreference(emission)levels:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Source:CIFORpolicybrief,2012
Overviewofapotentialstep‐wiseframeworkforsettingRELs
• Availability&qualityofdatashoulddeterminethemethodstodevelopreferencelevels
• Nationalcapacitiesandthequalityofreferencelevelscanbeimprovedovertime
StepwiseREDD+nationalmonitoring
• CIFOR/GOFC‐GOLDsideeventonstepwiseProgressinNationalForestMonitoring,MRV,ReferenceLevelsandAssessingDrivers,
– Wednesday,28November,15.00‐16.30hrs,QatarNationalConventionCenter(QNCC),SideEventRoom4
• UpdatedversionoftheGOFC‐GOLDSourcebook:
– http://www.gofcgold.wur.nl/redd/index.php
• CIFOR/GOFC‐GOLDreportoncapacitydevelopmentinnationalforestmonitoring
– http://www.cifor.org/online‐library/browse/view‐publication/publication/3944.html
Considerationsforfuturedrivers
• Economicgrowthbasedontheexportofprimarycommodities+increasingdemandfortimberandagriculturalproductsinaglobalizingeconomyarecritical.
• 93%ofcountries:identifyweakforestsectorgovernanceandinstitutions,includingconflictingpoliciesbeyondtheforestsector(lackofcross‐sectoralcoordination),andillegalactivity(weakenforcement).SeeAppendixA.
• Populationgrowthnextmostcommonreportedunderlyingdriver(51%),followedbypoverty(48%)andinsecuretenure(48%).
• 41%ofcountriesmentioninternationalandmarketforces(commoditymarkets,prices,andforeigndirectinvestment).
• Somecountriesthatreferenceagriculturalexportcommoditiesasdirectdriversdon’tmakelinkagetointernationalandmarketforcesasunderlyingdrivers.
Indirect/Underlyingdrivers:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Globalincrease,predominantlyinurbanareas,to8.2billionin2030
• LargestincreasesinpopulationinAfrica(+235million)andAsia&Pacific(+255million)
• Stabilizedpopulationlevelof8to10billionafter2050duetorisinglivingstandards,urbanization,anddecliningbirthrates
FutureTrends:Globalpopulation:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Brazil,theRussianFederation,IndiaandChinaareanticipatedtocontinuegrowingoverthenexttenyearsat8%perannum(OECD/FAO,2012)
• Developingworldwillaccountformorethanhalfofglobaleconomicgrowththroughout2012/14(WorldBank,2012)
• Mining:Developingcountriesandemergingmarketswillseegreatestsupplyanddemandexpansion(PriceWaterhouseCoopers,2012).
FutureTrends:Economicgrowth:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Overall,70%increaseindemandforfoodproductsby2050(FAO,2009)
• Oilseeds:23%productionincrease2011–2020,2/3ofwhichtooccurinnon‐Annex1countries(OECD/FAO,2011)
• Oilpalm:45%riseinpalmoiloutput,mainlybyIndonesiaandMalaysia(OECD/FAO2011)
• Meat:85%increaseinvolumeofmeatproducedby2050(FAO,2009),78%oftheadditionaloutputtooccurindevelopingcountries(LatinAmerica‐Brazil),growthindemand:largeeconomiesinAsia,LatinAmericaandoilexportingcountries(OECD/FAO2011)
• Biofuels:By2020,21%oftheincreaseinglobalcoarsegrainsproductionabovecurrentlevels,29%oftheglobalvegetableoilproduction’sincrease,and68%ofglobalsugarcaneproduction’sincreasewillgotobiofuels(OECD/FAO,2011).EU,US,Brazil,China,Indiaandothershavebiofueltargets.
FutureTrends:Agriculturalcommodities:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Annualplantationproductioncapacity:1.8billionm3peryearby2020
• >80%productionpotentiallocatedintropicsandsouthernhemisphere
• Brazil,ChinaandRussiatodominate,IndiaandVietnamincreasemarketshareoftheinternationaltradeofwoodproductsby2020(FAOAdvisoryCommitteeonPaperandWoodProducts,2007).Note:domesticconsumption,domesticfuelwooduseandillegalloggingnotrepresentedintradestatistics.
• EUandUSImportcontrolsstemmingillegallogging,howeverint’landdomestictradewillingtosourceillegalwoodwillincrease.
FutureTrends:Woodproducts(pulp,paper,sawlogs):
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Peoplereliantontraditionalbiomassusegloballytodecreaseby175millionbetween2008and2030
• Demandforcharcoallikelytoincreaseduetoincreasedurbanization
• 34%increaseinfuelwoodconsumptionfrom2000‐2020inSub‐SaharanAfrica(FAO,2009)
FutureTrends:FuelWood/Charcoal:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Drivers:REDD+policydevelopmentandimplementation:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Incentives,disincentivesandenablingmeasures• Policy‐orincentive‐basedinterventions• Needtofocusinterventionsondirectandunderlyingdriverssimultaneouslyforsuccess.
• Needamixofincentiveinvestments,disincentivesandenablingmeasures,underacomprehensiveREDD+strategy,aimedatthemostimportantproximateandunderlyingdriversforgreatestsuccess.Measurespursuedsingly,e.g.agriculturalintensification,willbelesseffectiveorcounter‐productive.
National‐levelinterventions:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
SummaryofnationalREDD+readinessplaninterventionsandstrategiestoaddressdrivers
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• 48%listinsecuretenureasakeyunderlyingfactorofunsustainableforestuse(refertoAppendixA).
• R‐PP’s:tenuredirectlyrelatestolegalandillegalforestclearingactivity,andgovernmentrolesinmanagementandenforcementofpolicies.
• Landtenuresecurity=lessdeforestation,andsecuretenuremoreimportantthantheformoftenurefordesigningpoliciestoinfluenceforestoutcomes(Robinsonetal.,2011)
Landtenuresecurity:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Countriesneed:•Integrationofinformationbeyondtheforestsector:trackdriveractivity,socialandenvironmentalsafeguards,andevaluationoftrade‐offsandlivelihoodimplications•Simultaneousclimatechangemitigationandadaptationimpactsandmeasures(foodsecurity)•Establisheduniformcriteriaonland‐useclassifications+capacitiesofsectoralandregionalinformationsystems•AcknowledgeIPCCLULUCFguidance;somecountrieswantfurtherUNFCCCguidanceonreportingframeworksforREDD+MRVsystemdesignandinventoryreportingformatstosupportassessingdriversoflandusechange
Adequateinformationsystems:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Distinguishbetweenlegalandillegalactivityandstatusoflanduserights.
• Howtocompete?:NPVofoilpalmplantations:US$6000–US$9000/ha,butcarboncreditsincentivesyieldUS$614–US$994perhectare(Pachecoetal.,2012;Fisheretal.,2011).
Solutions:• Strengthenlawsandregulations,fiscalmechanisms(e.g.taxesand
subsidies),andpublicinvestments(e.g.tenurereform,benefit‐sharing,rehabilitatingdegradedland)ratherthanopportunitycoststoaffectratesanddriversofdeforestation(Gregersenetal.,2010).
• Shouldbenationalinscale:avoidsleakagebetweenregionalorprojectscalesandoverpayingforhighopportunitycostemissionreductions.
REDD+compensation,opportunitycostsandgoodgovernance:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Land‐sparinghypothesisisflawed• Brazil,GhanaandIndonesia:threekeyleversacrossregionsandcommodities:– provisionofup‐frontpublicfinance,followedbylow‐interestloans,
– establishmentandenforcementofthecorrectenablingpolicyandregulatoryframeworks,
– theneedforsignificantpublicinvestmentinincreasingthecapacityofagriculturalproducers,particularlysmallholders(Prince’sCharities’InternationalSustainabilityUnit,2012)
Intensifyingagriculturalproductionwithoutcausingdeforestation:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Brazil:•Cereal,pulseandoilseedproduction185%(1990–2012),butdeforestationalmost75%since2004.•Agriculturalintensification+policiespromotinguseofdegradedlands—dependentontherebeingenoughdegradedland(Macedoetal.,2012)•Combinationofmarketpressure,forestcodeenforcement,technicalguidanceandland‐useplanning,financingandincentives,increasingareasundermultipleuses(crop‐livestock‐forestintegration,silvopastoralandagroforestrysystems).Indonesia:•Palmoilcultivationfrom9.7millionhato18millionhaby2020withoutdeforestationpossibleviaaproperlyplannedandspatiallyexplicitdevelopmentstrategy(KohandGhazoul,2010).
Intensifyingagriculturalproduction≠ deforestation(cont.):
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
AcreState’sREDD+programme:•Encompassesallland‐usetypes,includingthefullrangeofagriculturalusesthataffectAcre’sforests,•Mixofincentivesandpayments,bundledunderanumbrellaREDD+programmelinkeddirectlytoAcreSustainableDevelopmentPlan,bringingsmall‐,medium‐andlarge‐scaleproducers,•Emissionreductiontargetsarenestedwithinfederaltargets,basedonmulti‐sectorland‐useplansandcommitments,•Governanceoftheprogramme,includingenforcementabilities,appearsstrong.
Cross‐sectoralcommitments:AcreState,Brazil
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Leakage/displacement—Trackingacrossbordersandacrossregionscomplex!Couldcombineinformationfromnationalsystemsandinternationalsources,enablingcountriestodesignsynergisticREDD+strategies.AlsoincreaseREDD+participation.
• Indirectland‐usechange(ILUC)—EURenewableEnergyDirectiveandUSRenewableFuelStandard:methodstoassessILUC;nationalinformationsystemsshouldinclude
• ForeignDirectInvestment—Informationsharingbetweencountriesonrisksandbenefitsneeded+identifycompatiblestrategies(legal,standards‐based,financial)withinvestorsandstakeholders.
Challenges:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Interventionsatrelevantscalesandkeyactors
Supply‐anddemand‐sidetools:•Voluntarymeasures(e.gEUFLEGTVoluntaryPartnershipAgreements,procurementandsourcingcommitments)orregulatory(e.g.importcontrols)•Exploringsynergies—howaddressingonedriveraffectsotherunderlyingdrivers—ofimportanceindesigninginterventions.– Example:internationaleffortstocontrolillegallogginghasspin‐offeffectsingenerallyimprovingforestsectorgovernance,akeyunderlyingdriver(LawsonandMcFaul,2010).
Interventionsatrelevantscales:International
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Largepurchasers:ConsumerGoodsForumzeronetdeforestationby2020,initialfocusonbeef,soy,palmoilandpaper/pulp.
• Governmentfacilitatedcommitments:TheNetherlands—allimportedpalmoilsustainableby2015.TheUKmappingsupplychainsofpalmoil.EUmembercountries’timberandsustainablewoodprocurementpolicies.
• Importcontrols,laws,bilateralagreementsandtradeaccords:e.g.EUVoluntaryPartnershipAgreementsonFLEGTandtheUSLaceyAct.
• Commodityroundtables,sustainabilitystandardsandcertification:RSPO,RTRS,Bonsucro,BetterCottonInitiative,RSB,FSC(chain‐of‐custody,nationalcontrolledwoodorgroupcertification).
• Public‐privatesectorpartnerships:e.g.USannouncementatRio+20topromotesustainablesupplychainswithConsumerGoodsForum.
• Impactandcarbondisclosure:e.g.GlobalCanopyProgramme’sForestFootprintDisclosureProject,nowpartofCarbonDisclosureProject.
Interventionsatrelevantscales:International
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Interventionsatrelevantscalesandkeyactors:
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
ConclusionsandRecommendations
• Mostcountrieslackdatatoquantitativelyidentifydrivers,andthusneed:– Supportthroughresourcesandassistanceinreadinessactivities.
– Integrationofinformationbeyondtheforestsector– Methodologicalguidanceontrackingdrivers:improveddataqualityondrivers,landuseandlandusechange,est.emissions,IPCCmethods
– Assessmentofhistorical,recentandprojectedfuturedrivers:criticalfordesignofREDD+strategies,andcanhelpquantifyandjustifyadjustmentstoforestreference(emission)levels(step‐wiseapproach)
Conclusionsandrecommendations:Nationallevels
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Lookbeyondtheforestsectortodesignandframeinterventionstoaddressdrivers—assesssectorpolicies(inagriculture,mining,infrastructure,energy,andforestry)thatconflictwithREDD+objectives,anddevelopcomprehensiveplanstomeetsustainabledevelopmentobjectives,enabledwithcross‐sectoralcommitmentsandpolitical/institutionalsupport.– Lowcarbondevelopmentplans/nationalclimatechangeactionplans– REDD+incentivesalonenotenough—needeffectivelanduseplanning,policiesand
incentives– Incentives,disincentivesandenablingmeasuresneedtoreachkeyactorsandatright
scale– Demand‐andsupply‐sideinitiatives(e.g.commodityroundtables)notprominent
enoughinreadinessplans.AlignwithREDD+.– Livelihoodsoflocalcommunitiesmaydependoncurrentdriversofdeforestationand
forestdegradation:interventionstrategiesmustconsiderimpacts(exposteandexanteandadheretosafeguards.
• Foundationalactivitiesforsuccessinaddressingdrivers:improvegovernance,transparency,capacityandenforcement,combatillegalactivitiesandprovidesecuretenure
Conclusionsandrecommendations:Nationallevels
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
• Countriesfocusedonnationalandlocalleveldrivers,butfaceinternationaldriversthatareexpectedtoincreaseinpressure.
• Engagefinanceasatooltochangedriveractivity:e.g.codesofconductorsustainabilityguidelinesforprovidinginternationalfinance,suchasEquatorPrinciples,InternationalFinanceCorporationPerformanceStandards,etc.
• Promotegovernment‐facilitatedcommitmentsonsustainablecommodities,public‐privatepartnerships(caninfluenceindirectlandusechangeandforeigndirectinvestment).
• Internationalinformationsharing:cross‐bordertrade,domesticandtrans‐boundarydrivers,bestpracticesandlessonslearned,periodicglobalassessments.
• RecognizelinkagesbetweenREDD+andemergingagriculturalmitigationandadaptation—orchestratedandcomplementaryfundingstreamstocountries(linkandintegrateREDD+activitiesandNAMAs,particularlyagriculture).
Conclusionsandrecommendations:Internationallevels
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Thankyou!
DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012
Gabrielle KissingerPrincipal
Lexeme ConsultingVancouver, Canada
Dr. Martin HeroldChair of Remote SensingCenter of Geo-Information
Department ofEnvironmental ScienceWageningen [email protected]