Autonomous Vehicles

ByDrew Campbell

Senior Partner Capitol-Insights

Tesla

Google

BMW

Mercedes Benz

Intersection

What are Autonomous Cars?

• An autonomous – or self-driving – car is one that can accelerate, brake and steer itself. Such cars have long been part of a utopian vision of the future, because they will free people from the boring aspects of driving and open up exciting new ways to travel. The many attempts at realizing this vision over the years have been limited by the technology available. Now we are able to make autonomous cars a reality.

Semi Autonomous or Completely Autonomous

• Autonomous driving has the power to change the world as we know it forever. This change will take place step by step, however, to ensure that the technology fits around how and where people use it.

• Today, most manufacturers use some of this technology to create semi-autonomous cars that make your journey easier and safer, while leaving you fully in control.

• Collision avoidance systems detects other vehicles, cyclists, pedestrians and, in some cases, even large animals on the road ahead. It warns the driver of hazards and will brake the car if necessary to avoid or mitigate a collision.

• The fully autonomous car goes further. It is able to perform all driving functions without supervision of the driver.

• In between these two is the highly autonomous car. This technology will give you the option of handing over control – and responsibility – to the car on specific roads. You will be able to use your time as you choose, taking back control to enjoy driving whenever you like.

Responsibility

• The driver will not be responsible for driving the vehicle when in autonomous mode (“driver out of the loop”).

The Benefits to You

• The customer benefit will be the freedom to engage in other activities (relax, create, entertainment, etc) in autonomous mode.

Legal Status

• There is currently no legal framework (except for testing, in certain jurisdictions).

Roll Out

• This may launch in increments (certain speeds, scenarios, conditions, applications, markets).

Semi Autonomous Vehicles

• The car can drive itself (accelerate, brake & steer) to a limited extent, i.e., supports the driver with keeping the distance to the vehicle in front and keeping the car in the lane in speeds up to 30 mph. However the driver remains responsible for monitoring, supervision, and over all operation of the vehicle and is expected to actively participate in the driving.

Responsibility

• The driver is always legally responsible for driving the vehicle (“driver in the loop”, “hands on the wheel, eyes on the road, mind on driving”).

Benefits to the Driver

• The customer benefits a convenience, peace of mind and feeling of control with the assistance of the vehicle. Like cruise control, automotic safety featuers, and collision avoidance.

Legal Status

• This is currently legal, since it does not change the basic assumption of a licensed driver always being responsible.

Roll Out

• These features have launched and will continue to launch in increments (certain speeds, certain scenarios, etc).

Intersection

Autos in the Hunt

Deaths by Automobile Accident• 1996 42,065 2,486 1.69 265,228,572 15.8599 -0.33%• 1997 42,013 2,562 1.64 267,783,607 15.6892 -1.08%• 1998 41,501 2,632 1.58 270,248,003 15.3566 -2.12%• 1999 41,717 2,691 1.55 272,690,813 15.2983 -0.38%• 2000 41,945 2,747 1.53 282,216,952 14.8627 -2.85%• 2001[2] 42,196 2,797 1.51 285,226,284 14.794 -0.46%• 2002 43,005 2,856 1.51 288,125,973 14.926 0.89%• 2003 42,884 2,890 1.48 290,796,023 14.747 -1.75%• 2004 42,836 2,965 1.44 293,638,158 14.588 -0.52%• 2005 43,510 2,989 1.46 296,507,061 14.674 0.44%• 2006 42,708 3,014 1.42 299,398,484 14.265 -2.79%• 2007 41,259 3,031 1.36 301,139,947 13.701 -3.85%• 2008 37,423 2,977 1.26 303,824,640 12.317 -11.0%• 2009 33,883 2,957 1.15 306,700,000 11.048 -9.7%• 2010[2] 32,999 2,967 1.11 309,326,000 10.668 -3.5%• 2011[4] 32,479 2,950 1.10 311,588,000 10.424 -2.3%• 2012[1] 33,561 2,969 1.13 313,914,000 10.691 2.6%• 2013[5] 32,719 2,946 1.11 316,129,000 10.345 -3.3%• 2014[6] 32,675 2,946 1.07

States With Enacted Legislation

When will we see Autonomous Cars?

• In 2012 Google founder Sergey Brin stated that Google Self-Driving car will be available for the general public in 2017, and in 2014 this schedule was updated by project director Chris Urmson to indicate a possible release from 2017 to 2020.

Volvo

• It’s arriving sooner than you might think. Self-driving Volvos are already on Swedish roads, and by 2017, real-world customers will be using 100 self-driving Volvos on public roads—the world’s first large-scale autonomous drive project. It’s a partnership between Volvo Car Group, the Swedish Transport Administration, the Swedish Transport Agency, Lindholmen Science Park and the City of Gothenburg, and is endorsed by the Swedish Government.

When Will I be able to buy One?

• Annual sales of self-driving cars worldwide — including those that require some driver input — will balloon from 230,000 in 2025 to 11.8 million by 2035, a new study predicts. That would result in a cumulative total of 54 million self-driving cars in use around the world by that year.

What State have Legalized it so Far?

• Self-driving cars are now allowed in Nevada, Florida, Michigan, California, and the District, at least for testing purposes. States like Texas, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin have rejected autonomous car laws, and many states are considering their options right now.

Headlines

• Googles Driverless Cars Will Be Legally Treated Like Human Drivers

• Autonomous vehicles could shrink US personal auto insurance by 60%

• About a dozen mayors pile into Google driverless cars at SXSW

• GM buys self-driving car software company• Toyota unveils new self-driving safety tech,

targets 2020 autonomous drive

Headlines

• 10 million self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020

• Volvo promises ‘DEATHPROOF’ cars by 2020: Company says it's confident technology will eradicate fatal crashes

• Carmakers Agree to Make Automatic Braking Standard Without a Rule By 2020

• Toyota announces Automatic Braking in 2017

Conclusion• Getting to connected and autonomous car and smarter city utopia will

not be easy. We will still be driving our own cars for years, and may have to share the road with autonomous ones. There will be significant challenges with the aging American infrastructure, and congestion will get worse before it gets better. But we should remember that we can’t always predict the future, and that technology has a way of driving progress in ways we don’t anticipate.

• Along that line, let’s humorously recall that at the turn of the century the horse manure problem was a significant issue in major urban cities like New York and London. Horse manure was that era’s pollution problem from ever increasing horse and buggy traffic. The London Times predicted in 1894 that by 1950 London would be nine feet deep in horse manure. It’s always dangerous to extrapolate what we know today too far out into the future.