Drive Market Share Gains Automotive Industry Insights: Q1 ... · magazine subscribers Approximately...

© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified,or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

Drive Market Share Gains -Automotive Industry Insights: Q1, 2010

Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics

© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Presentation Overview

First Quarter 2010 Automotive Market Overview• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)• Vehicle Registrations

• New and Used

• New Vehicle Market Share• Purchase Loyalty

• Corporate and Brand

• Other Market Impacts• Orphan Brands• Recalls• Generational Loyalty


Understanding the Automotive Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets

50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categoriesMeasures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile700+ psychographic measuresEasily extrapolated to any target file

25 million Internet usersinteracting with one million Websites across 160+ industriesAverage of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year

Consumer2 million credit inquiries daily1.3 billion transaction updates/month99.9% system availability1.3 second response rate220 million credit active consumers50 million public records

Business22 million businesses

235 million consumers, 113 million households1,500+ data attributes per recordAttitudinal segments and touch-points3,200 public and proprietary sources110 million catalog buyers148 million magazine subscribers

Approximately 600,000 knownfraud records186+ million cross-industry credit applications215+ million consumer200 +demographic and credit records

Experian has “the most well-regarded compiled consumer file on the market today” The Forrester Wave™: Database Marketing Service Providers, Q1 2006, Forrester Research Inc. January 10, 2006

NationalFraud

Database

600 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and CanadaIncludes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M title brands and 92M accident related events

OnlineActivity

DatabasesCredit

Databases

ConsumerMarketing Databases

Simmons National

Consumer Study

NationalVehicle

Database

Integrated Information Assets


VIO

Loyalty

Market Share

Data foundation

NationalVehicle

Database

Comprehensive coverage• Over 600 million total vehicles – U.S. and Canada

• 280 million total vehicles in operation• 825 million titles, 950 million registrations• Seven Terabytes, over 18 billion rows

Direct Sources• Vehicle title and registration data in 50 U.S. states and D.C.• Many other sources, including fleet, auction, maintenance, inspection, warranty, dealer, police

Variety of Metrics• Registration Trends• VIO Reporting• Loyalty Studies


VEHICLESIN

OPERATION


AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

Experian Automotive’s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S.

Quick Facts…

• There are 239,349,895 light duty vehicles on the road

• Up over 287,952 units from last quarter (+0.12%) contributed to by increased vehicle sales versus scrappage rate

• Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota

• Hyundai VIO grew 9.3 percent (ranked seventh)

• Trucks still retain top place versus cars (50.1% vs. 49.9%)

• Average age of all cars and light trucks in operation is 10.4 years


0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

U.S. Summary by Model Yearas of March 30, 2010 (Q1)

Current VIO – Year Model

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

81 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less

81%90 million 2001-2006 : aftermarket ‘sweet spot’


0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Sport Car - Ultra LuxuryUpscale - Ultra

Alt Power - Hybrid TruckOther

Upscale - PremiumSport Car - Upper Premium

SUV - PickupAlt Power - Hybrid CarSUV - Premium Large

SUV - Upper Mid RangeSport Car - Premium

Small Car - BudgetCUV - Premium

CUV - Mid RangeTraditional Car

Van - Full SizedSport Car - Touring

SUV - Entry LevelUpscale - Luxury

CUV - Entry LevelSUV - Large

Upscale - Near LuxuryMid Range Car - Premium

Pickup - SmallSUV - Lower Mid Range

Van - MiniMid Range Car - Lower

Small Car - EconomyMid Range Car - Standard

Pickup - Full Sized

Current VIO – Vehicle Segment

Hybrid vehicles represent 0.7 percent of current VIO



Current VIO – Drive Wheels


• Half of all vehicles on road are front wheel drive

• Four-wheel drive and All-wheel drive continue to grow, primarily due to growth in CUV segment


Current VIO – Engine Type


• Six-cylinder engines power majority of vehicles• Four-cylinders next most prevalent, followed by eight cylinders


VEHICLE REGISTRATION


U.S. Automotive Market Overview

• Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009, new vehicle registrations increased by more than 300,000 units (12.8 percent )

• Very strong when compared to drops of more than 1 million units in prior qtrs

12

Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter

New Vehicle Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive

Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q1 2009

2008 2009 2010


U.S. Market – New Vehicle Registrations

New Vehicle Registrations

Q3 and Q4 narrowing gap

compared to prior quarters, Q1 2010 clearly turned the corner on market

improvement


2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

2009

2010


Used Vehicle Registrations

U.S. Market – Used Vehicle Registrations

Used vehicle registrations are essentially even with Q1 2009, as

last three quarters have been very consistent over

prior year


2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

2009

2010


New Vehicle Market Overview

New Vehicle Registrations – Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2009


• Ford had highest percentage and unit gains versus Q1 2009, up nearly 27 percent and 95,000 units respectively

• Nissan and Hyundai were up nearly 23 and 20 percent respectively

• GM was up more than 59,000 units, netting a 13.8 percent increase

• Chrysler was down 5.2 percent

Corporation


Segment Registration Trends Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2009

CUV –Entry Level

CUV –Mid

Range

Pickup -Small

SUV –Upper Mid-

Range

Alt Power Hybrid Truck

Sport Car - Premium

Van -Mini

• Entry-Level CUV segment had greatest unit increase in Q1 2010 when compared to Q1 2009

• Mid-Range and Economy cars also had strong increases

• Minivans had largest segment drop, followed by Sport Car Premium segment


New

Reg

istra

tions

Mid Range Car -

Lower

Mid Range Car -

Standard

Small Car Economy


Market ChangersN

ew R

egis

tratio

ns


Ford F150, Fusion and Escape up a combined

54,000+ units

Ranked by Unit Change

Ram down 10,000+ units

Kia Sportage and Sedona down a combined 12,000+ units


M&M’s (Market Movers)

Ranked by % change

New

Reg

istra

tions


SRX up 9,921 units

Sorento up 13,883 unitsEquinox up

18,819 units


NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q1 Performance

• Further expansion of CUV category• Luxury Vehicles having impact• New entries represent nearly 77,000

additional sales for 1st quarter

New Vehicle RegistrationsSource: Experian Automotive


Are Minivans a Viable Segment?


Segment Trends Minivan Brands

2008 2009 20102008 2009 2010


MARKET SHARE

OVERVIEW


Who is up? • Ford 1.8% share• Nissan 0.6% share• Hyundai 0.4% share• GM 0.1% share

GM

Ford

ToyotaHonda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2010

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

Who is down? • Chrysler -1.8% share• Toyota -0.6% share• Honda -0.2% share

Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009 Market Share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2009




23


Manufacturer Market Share Analysis - The ‘Others’



24


• Cars helping to drive share gains for VW, Subaru, Ford and Hyundai

• Pickups and large SUVs impacting Chrysler and Toyota

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis


Market Share drivers: Competitive Conquests


Chevrolet Share of Sales from Pure Import Conquests

Toyota Share of Sales from Pure Domestic Conquests


Trends in Toyota Conquesting


Toyota Share of Sales from Competitive Owners

Percent Competitive Owners Defecting to Toyota

This lower defection rate to Toyota from key competitive brands equates to 37,000 lost sales for Toyota in Q1


CUSTOMERLOYALTY


Loyalty Methodology

•Migration Measurement

•Multiple Levels

•Purchase Loyalty

Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.

Provides complete view of repurchase activity

Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.

Essentially tracking vehicle replacement

Owned Vehicle:

Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura


Q1 2010 Corporate Loyalty

29

• Ford has passed Toyota and GM in corporate loyalty• Toyota nearly equal to GM• Hyundai narrowed gap vs. Honda• Chrysler has increased

Market Overview - Loyalty

Corporate Loyalty by Month

• Chrysler loyalty continues upward climb

• Toyota ended quarter with highest loyalty

• GM dropped in February and March


20102009


Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q1 2010


• Luxury brands had top four spots in terms of proportional gain in loyalty

• Lexus had greatest percentage and point gain: more than 11 percentage points

• Ford, Lincoln and Infiniti all gained more than 5 points

Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009 Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change


Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10

Q1 2010 Brand Loyalty

31


• Ford Fusion owners were most loyal, with nearly two out of three returning to the Ford brand

• Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty

• Chevrolet Impala and Traverse owners were ranked fifth and seventh respectively


2007 – Who took from Whom?

64,000

Net UnitsFord (471,254)GM (330,313)Chrysler (225,213)Honda 325,555Toyota 701,225

Net Owner Migration

GM Ford

Toyota

Chrysler

Honda



Q1 2010: Who’s taking from Whom?

19,868

Net UnitsChrysler (50,794)GM (48,145)Ford 20,365Toyota 27,926Honda 34,504

Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

GM


Ford

ToyotaHonda


ORPHAN BRANDS


Is GM Retaining Pontiac Owners?

Since elimination of Pontiac brand, GM’s remaining brands are capturing nearly half of Pontiac owners returning to market


GM

Sha

re o

f Pur

chas

es

2009 2010


Ford Motor Company Streamlining – what does it mean?

• Mercury brand represents less than six percent of Ford Motor Co. sales

Source: Experian NVDB

• Where will Mercury brand owners go when returning to market?


LOYALTY BY GENERATION


Loyalty by Generation

Purchase Distribution

38

GENERATION TIMELINE

Depression Generation Quiet Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials (Gen Y)1915-1934 1935-1945 1946-1964 1965-1977 1978-1994




• The depression generation is more than one-third more likely to remain brand loyal than Millennials

• Loyalty decreases very consistently with age

Loyalty by Generation

Overall Brand Loyalty

39

GENERATION TIMELINE




Loyalty by GenerationB

rand

Loy

alty

40

GENERATION TIMELINE



41


Loyalty by Generation20

09 C

Y B

rand

Loy

alty

41

GENERATION TIMELINE



Millennials (Gen Y)

42


Loyalty by Generation: Top 5 Models

Brand Loyalty

Depression Generation Baby Boomers

Generation X

42

GENERATION TIMELINE



Conclusions

New vehicle registrations appear to have hit bottom in early/mid 2009, and have been on upswing for the last two quartersUsed vehicle registrations for last two quarters are lagging behind same quarters from prior yearFord gained nearly two percentage points in market share, taking number two spot from ToyotaGM seems to have stabilized share with their four brands, Toyota lost more than a half-point in share, and Chrysler continued downward trendHyundai growth slowed in quarter, smaller manufactures seize opportunity, while some luxury brands dropped shareFord took top spot in corporate loyalty for first time, Chrysler loyalty on the riseAs Generation X and Millennials increase their proportion in the marketplace, battle for share and loyalty will become even more fierce for all manufacturers


Questions?

Drive Market Share Gains Automotive Industry Insights: Q1 ... · magazine subscribers Approximately...

Documents

Transcript of Drive Market Share Gains Automotive Industry Insights: Q1 ... · magazine subscribers Approximately...