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Dragon Dance In India’s Ocean

The suicide bombing coincided with the arrival of a new ISI chief at the

helm, appointed with scant disregard to the India-leaning Sharif, who

attempted to run with the Indian hare as well as the Chinese hound

| b !eena "opal

# !ovember $, %&'(, !ew Delhi, Sri )an*a "uardian+ arel si wee*s after a Chinese

submarine doc*ed in Colombo port in mid-September this ear, the .ahinda

/a0apa*sa government is clearl coc*ing a snoo* at Delhi, in allowing a second

Chinese submarine to doc* in Sri )an*an waters this wee*1It ma not be a nuclear attac* submarine, but it is part of the Chinese !av’s growing

fleet, man armed with long range missiles, one of which surfaced in these waters

earlier this ear while on its wa to the "ulf1

The fact that it showed up at all, for the second time, when it could have staed

underwater, undetected for months to come, underlines China’s immediate intent to

flag its displeasure with 2rime .inister !arendra .odi’s government, and as part of

its long-term strateg to undermine India in its own waters1 In India’s Ocean1

3nli*e the previous .anmohan Singh government, .r .odi has swiftl conveed his

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displeasure in the strongest terms to Colombo, where ties are alread tested b a Sri

)an*an court’s decision to award the death penalt to five fishermen from Tamil !adu,

charged with drug traffic*ing1 The court ruling, onl adding to the long list of irritants

 between the two countries, with India voting against Sri )an*a in the 3nited !ations

4igh Commissioner for /efugees #3!4C/+ ruling on human rights violations against

the separatist Tamil Tigers in their death throes on the battlefield1 It’s something, the/a0apa*sa government has clearl not been able to get past1

The arrival of the Chin-ese sub, despite strong words to Sri )an*an defence secretar

"otabhaa /a0-apa*sa when the first sub doc*ed on September '5, #even as Indian

2resident 2ranab .u*her0ee was in 6ietnam and .r .odi had instructed troops to

hold their ground when the Chinese destroed Indian 7rm tents in Chumar+

therefore, is indicative that the Chinese leadership ma have found more than a willing

partner in Colombo, to score points off its larger neighbour1

ei0ing was furious with the 6ietnamese 2rime .inister !guen Tan Dung leaving our

shores after an official visit, with the Indian made rah.os anti-ship, supersonic

cruise missile deal tuc*ed, metaphoricall, under his belt1

"iven 4anoi’s propensit to give China a blood nose in battles past, this is .r .odi’s

India, finall turning 4anoi into Delhi’s eastern vanguard, part of the grand plan to

ma*e the new leadership in ei0ing, thin* twice before it barrels its wa into the

disputed South China Sea, appropriating an more islands than it alread las claims

to1

The submarine is ei0i-ng’s activation of its cat’s paw in .r /a0apa*sa’s Colombo, a

 wa*e-up call that our new 2rime .inister ignores at his peril1

The Indian leader’s priorit therefore, as he heads for a landmar* visit to urma for an

 7sean meet on !ovember '%-'8, and then on to the "-%& in 7ustralia the wee* after,

and the Saarc summit in 9athmandu on !ovember %%, must be to carve out his own

:coalition of the willing; as a first step towards securing India’s maritime boundaries1

.r .odi has the opportunit here to overturn the previous government’s puss-footing on ei0ing, and craft a new strateg to tac*le the Chinese’s barel concealed

hostilit and belligerence couched in platitudes, that is part of the foreign polic matri

towards its *e 7sian rival1 It is onl .r .odi who can snap the noose of pearls that

China tightened around India’s nec* as the .anmohan Singh government do<ed1

The fall-out from .r .odi’s newl muscular foreign polic with another Chinese pats,

2a*istan, where Indian soldier have for wee*s now met fire with fire over cross-

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 border firings = hitherto not a part of India’s strateg to counter 2a*istan = has, it

must be said, had the unintended conse>uence of gravel wea*ening the standing of

the elected government of 2rime .inister !awa< Sharif1

The Sharifs had predicated their :third coming; in the hope that trade with India, on

the cusp of an economic boom, would strengthen their support base in a 2a*istan, where the militar had seemed to ta*e a bac* seat1

4owever, faced with the prospect of reclaiming its clout in 7fghanistan and where

India has much goodwill = the 2a*istan 7rm is done with sitting in the barrac*s1

 7s its covert support to its pawn, the Imran 9han-led Tehree*-i-Insaf demonstrates,

and the multiple fronts it has opened up on its own territor against a home-grown

Taliban, as well as 7fghanistan, and now Iran, the :deep state; will do everthing in its

power to limit the rise of the Sharifs, on the bac* of a resurgent India1

In fact, if Sunda’s suicide bomber on the ?agah border had detonated himself on the

Indian side as he had apparentl planned, ties between India and the civilian

government in 2a*istan, would have been irreparabl damaged1 If, it isn’t alread1

The suicide bombing, incidentall, coincided with the arrival of a new ISI chief at the

helm, appointed with scant disregard to the India-leaning 2rime .inister Sharif, who

attempted to run with the Indian hare as well as the Chinese hound1

.ost Sri )an*a hands believe, similarl, that the Sri )an*an 2resident /a0apa*sa’splaing ball with the Chinese has a great deal to do with India’s own feeble diplomac,

its unwillingness to turn a s*ewed trade imbalance in Colombo’s favour, pushing

Colombo to reach out to the Chinese to revive their war-ravaged econom1 The bu<< is

that 2resident /a0apa*sa also believes he can win re-election on an anti-India plan*

and could push for an earl presidential poll this coming @anuar1

Through %&&5-%&'%, ever since .r /a0apa*sa was elected 2resident, China, pumped in

A(1$ billion into ma0or infrastructure pro0ects including building and operating the

South Container Terminal at the A'1( billion Colombo 2ort Cit pro0ect1

Chinese funds into Sri )an*a for the last two ears alone is set at A%1'B billion, with

analsts saing that of the total assistance in %&&5-%&'8, onl two per cent is a grant1

 ?ith the rest, a loan, )an*an Opposition leaders, including the powerful uddhist

clerg have alread started a whisper campaign against the government on the dangers

posed to the nation’s independence and sovereignt, if the government cannot service

its debt1

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 ?hile Sri )an*a sas there is no Chinese militar involvement on the island, India

 would do well to reach out to the /a0apa*sas, particularl the powerful defence

secretar, the 2resident’s pointman on India, and ma*e it clear that unli*e the time

 when former 2re-sident reportedl allowed the Sirimavo andaranai*e 2a*istan !av

free transit to Dha*a, at the height of the '$' angladesh war, India under .r .odi,no longer an absentee power, will not countenance an enem in its waters1

2osted b Thavam