DRAFT January 12, 2018 - Schar School of Policy and …€¦ · · 2018-01-17DRAFT January 12,...
Transcript of DRAFT January 12, 2018 - Schar School of Policy and …€¦ · · 2018-01-17DRAFT January 12,...
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Spring 2018
POLICYMAKING IN A COMPLEX WORLD
PUBP880-001 (#21224)
LOCATION – ARLFH #467
TIME— 7:20PM-10:00PM THURSDAY;
DRAFT January 12, 2018
Instructor: Prof. Hilton Root
Website: hiltonroot.gmu.edu/
Email: [email protected]
Office: Arlington Founder’s Hall, RM #636
Phone: 310-384-5545
Office Hours: 5pm-7pm (Wednesday, Thursday)
This course explores the proposition that the frontiers of modern science, especially
Complexity Science has increasing relevance to the study of real policy cases, offering
social scientists a common set of thinking tools for observing and abstracting patterns of
social behavior and ultimately for adapting policy mechanisms to address the wickedly
hard questions of contemporary, global political economy.
A number of analyses and proofs of concept are available, dispersed throughout distant
disciplines, ranging from social sciences (economics and sociology); to natural sciences
(ecology, epidemiology, and physics); to practice-oriented research (engineering, policy
analysis, and urbanism). The accomplishments of this approach are not fully apparent
because their reach is contained within the narrow limits of their respective fields.
This course seeks to integrate both well-known and cutting-edge methodologies and
theoretical frameworks and seeks the interface between experts of various academic
disciplines and policymakers. The goal is to facilitate decision-making in a constantly
changing environment. Potential topics include but are not limited to the following:
1. Complex social systems and applications in public policy
2. Complexity methods and analysis for policymakers.
3. Effects of governance in complex social systems
4. Management of financial networks, real estate, and financing spillovers
5. Smart cities, mobility, and towns in complex urban environments
6. Dynamic risk management in complex scenarios
7. Analyses that explicitly include political-spatial governance boundaries
8. Design and analysis of complex sociotechnical systems for public services
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LEARNING OUTCOMES:
The course will enable students to become familiar with the analytical framework of
complex adaptive systems and its application to global public policy. Students will acquire
new tools to understand the adaptive processes and possible discontinuities that will shape
the emergent global order. Analysis of the military, political, economic and cultural
interactions of both Western and non-western societies will illustrate and validate the
complex systems approach, challenging conventional conceptions of what the state should
do, and the ways in which it can act.
When policy makers confront a complicated problem, they often ask "What do we do
first?" or "what is the best solution?" But for problems that are not just complicated, but
complex in nature, those are the wrong questions. These problems -- which include
everything from state-building to peacemaking to consolidating democracy -- are created
by networks of interacting agents influencing each other in a dynamic system. So one
cannot isolate a first step from a second, or identify a single optimal solution -- one has to
approach the entire landscape of interacting units as a complex system, and identify its
feedbacks and interdependencies to understand the effects of different actions. Only then
can one build a strategy that is sufficiently dynamic and adaptive to attain desired
outcomes in a constantly changing environment. Without understanding the nature of
complexity, policy makers will continue to fail -- as they have so often in the last few
decades -- to make progress on crucial problems that develop from the dynamic
interactions among actors within linked systems.
COURSE REQUIREMENTS:
Students are expected to keep up with each week’s required readings and to participate in
class discussion.
20%: Class discussion and one class presentation of a title in the syllabus.
20%: Midterm Take Home: A set of questions will be emailed to the class from which
students will select their topic and write an essay of 1,000 words.
60%: One term paper, 3,500 words due at the end of the semester or an agent based
model revealing a property of a complex social environment. Peer assessed.
A) Write a 3,500-word essay in which you explore how the study of complexity can be
applied to practical problems of global public policy. Demonstrate potential
connections between evolutionary theories of complexity and problems in
global management, government or organizations. Students can choose topics in
public health, environment, critical infrastructure, global security,
cyberwarefare, demographic transitions As examples consider problems that are
inadequately explained; can models of evolutionary complexity can be applied
to provide a more realistic understandings and better policies than conventional
analytical tools? Devise experiments that can reveal laws or patterns that govern
how complex institutions, organizations or technologies organizations evolve.
OR:
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B) Computationally adept students can construct computer-based simulation models to
analyze complex systems. Show how artificial worlds like Sugarscape can be
created to capture relevant aspects of the global problems under consideration
during the semester. Given all exogenous and endogenous factors, construct
model economies that evolve over time so that different scenarios can be
analyzed using the models as virtual testbeds for theory generation and
exploration.
REQUIRED READING
1. Barabasi, A.L. 2003. Linked: How Everything is Connected to Everything Else and
What It Means. Plume.
2. Beinhocker, E., 2006, The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the
Radical Remarking of Economics, Harvard Business School Press, Boston.
3. Root, Hilton. L. 2013. Dynamics among Nations: The Evolution of Legitimacy and
Development in Modern States. MIT Press.
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4. Ilene Grabel ,2017.When Things Don’t Fall Apart: Global Financial Governance and
Developmental Finance in an Age of Productive Incoherence . The MIT Press Cambridge,
Massachusetts London, England.
5. Gillian K. Hadfield,2017, Rules For A Flat World: Why Humans Invented Law and How to
Reinvent It for a Complex Global Economy, Oxford University Press
6.W. Brian Arthur, The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves Free Press
New York London Toronto Sydney
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Richerson, Peter J, and Robert Boyd. 2005. Not by Genes Alone: How Culture
Transformed Human Evolution. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Chapter 1 – 4,
pages 1 –147
WEEK 1: January 25, 2018
Topic: What is Social Complexity: Building Blocks to examine global political
economy and complexity
“Theories of complex social systems are tested on massive scales everyday, when
governments implement various policies that often involve substantial resources and
ultimately have tremendous impacts on the lives of countless citizens” (Miller and Page
2007: 235). Scholars from many disciplines are applying perspectives from the study of
dynamical systems to problems of global and international public policy. How will this
affect some of the basic paradigms of governance, development policy, foreign policy
and international relations?
Social Complexity 1: Overview: via@YouTube (youtu.be/kkcGr3y70bk?a via
@youtube) This module will provide a quick overview to the application theory to the
social sciences. See Complexity Academy@Complexityacad
Root, Hilton L. 2013. Dynamics Among Nations: The Evolution of Legitimacy and
Development in Modern States. MIT Press. Chapter 1, pages 1 – 15.
Johnson, Jeffrey. 2010. “The Future of the Social Sciences and Humanities in the Science
of Complex Systems.” Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research 23
(2): 115–134. doi:10.1080/13511610.2010.518422.
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WEEK 2: FEBRUARY 1, 2018
Topic: The Great Debate on the Role of the State and Economy Hayek, F. (1956). The Road to Serfdom. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
Keynes, J. M. (1931). “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren.” Essays in
Persuasion. http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
Hilton L. Root. (2017)Keynes or Hayek: Is the Road to the Future Mechanistic or
Organic? SSRN
WEEK 3: FEBRUARY 8, 2018
Topic: The Economy as a Complex Adaptive System
-Why do the rich get richer?
Did complexity cause the demise of central planning and will it cause the
reconsideration of neo-classical models of economic development as well?
How do the global trends of growing economic and social inequalities result from
the globalization of resource use, production and consumption?
Required Reading:
Bienhocker, Eric D. The Origin of Wealth. Harvard Business School Press. Pages 415 –
450.
Arthur, B., Durlauf, S. and Lane, D. (1997). The Economy as an Evolving Complex
System II. Addison Wesley, Redwood City Ca. Chapter 1.
W. Brian Arthur, Complexity and the Economy, Oxford University Press 2015, chapter 1,
Page 1-30; chapter 4-6, Page 69-119; chapter 9-12, Page 144-182.
Root, Hilton L. 2013. Dynamics Among Nations: The Evolution of Legitimacy and
Development in Modern States. MIT Press. Chapter 3, pp. 35 - 56
WEEK 4: FEBRUARY 15, 2018
Topic: Modeling Techniques
Guest Speaker: Steve Scott- MITRE Cooperation
Reading Robert Axtell and Doyne Farmer http://breakthroughs.csmonitor.com/the-economy, part of a series the
“Christian Science Monitor” is doing on complex systems more broadly
(e.g., cities, diseases, traffic).
WEEK 5: FEBRUARY 22, 2018
Topic: Global Finance
Required Reading:
Ilene Grabel , 2017.When Things Don’t Fall Apart: Global Financial Governance and
Developmental Finance in an Age of Productive Incoherence . The MIT Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England.
Root, Hilton. 2012. "The Policy Conundrum of Financial Market Complexity" in
Research Handbook on Banking and Governance (edited by James R. Barth, Clas
Wihlborg and Chen Lin). Northampton: Edward Elgar Publishing. Chapter 20. E-
RESERVE
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WEEK 6: MARCH 1, 2018
Topic: Networks Barbasi, Albert-Laszlo. 2003. Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else
and What It Means. Plume.
WEEK 7: MARCH 8, 2018
Topic: Culture, Cognition and Social Evolution Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Dissemination of Culture: A Model with Local Convergence
and Global Polarization. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(2): 203-226
Hilton Root, (2016). Fast, slow and endless variation drives global development,
Cambridge Review of International Affairs.
WEEK 8: MARCH 15, 2018
Spring Break
WEEK 9: MARCH 22, 2018
Topic: How Technology Evolves?
W. Brian Arthur, The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves Free Press
New York London Toronto Sydney
F.W. Geels. 2005. “Process and Pattern in Transition and System Innovation: Refining
the Co-Evolutionary Multi-level Perspective.” Technological Forecasting & Social
Change 72: pp. 681-696.
Audley Genus, Ann-Marie Coles. 2008. “Rethinking the Multi-level Perspective of
Technological Transitions.” Research Policy 37: pp.1436-1445.
WEEK 10: MARCH 29, 2018
Topic: Great Transitions in Economic History Root, Hilton L. Networks and Change in Economic History, chapter 1,2,4,6
WEEK 11: APRIL 5, 2018
Topic: Law for a Complex Global Economy
Gillian K. Hadfield, 2017, Rules for A Flat World: Why Humans Invented Law and How
to Reinvent It for a Complex Global Economy, Oxford University Press.
Root, Hilton L.(2018) Networks and Change in Economic History, chapter 5.
WEEK 12: APRIL12, 2018
Topic: The Rise of China
Root Hilton L (2018) Networks and Change in Economic History, chapter 7
WEEK 13: APRIL19, 2018
Topic: The coming instability
Root Hilton L. (2018) Networks and Change in Economic History, chapter 8-10
.
WEEK 14: APRIL26, 2018
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Topic: Global Development
Development Assistance and Complexity for Practitioners
- Why do outbreaks of political or economic instability occur?
- How can we separate causes into structural conditions and triggering events?
Required Reading:
Root, Hilton, Jones, Harry and Wild, Leni. 2014. “Managing complexity and uncertainty
in development policy and practice”. Working Paper ODI,
http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/events-documents/5191.pdf
Root, Hilton L. 2013. Dynamics Among Nations: The Evolution of Legitimacy and
Development in Modern States. MIT Press. Chapter 6, pages 95 - 114
Ramalingam, Ben. “From Best Practice to Best Fit”
http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-
files/9159.pdf
WEEK 15: MAY 3, 2018
Topic: Presentations and Assessment
Peer Assessment of Student Projects
Recommended Readings: WEEK 1
Simon, Herbert A. 1996. The Sciences of the Artificial - 3rd Edition. third edition. The
MIT Press. Chapter 8: The Architecture of Complexity: Hierarchic Systems pp. 170 –
182
Johnson, Neil. 2009. Simply Complexity: A clear guide to complexity theory. Reprint.
Oneworld. (pp. 3 – 18)
WEEK 3
Blanchard, Olivier J. 2008. The State of Macro. Working Paper. National Bureau of
Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w14259.
Simon, Herbert A. 1955. “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” The Quarterly
Journal of Economics 69 (1) (February 1): in Gunderson and Holling: 99–118.
WEEK 4
Schelling, T.C. (1971), 'Dynamic Models of Segregation', Journal of Mathematical
Sociology, 1(1): 143-186.
“Economics Focus: Agents of Change.” The Economist, July 22, 2010
http://www.economist.com/node/16636121.
Week 6 Ormerod, Paul. 2012. Positive Linking. Faber & Faber. Chapter 7. Easley, David and Jon Klienberg. 2010. Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning
About a Highly Connected World. New York: Cambridge University Press. chapter 1-5
Hausmann, Ricardo, and Cesar Hidalgo. 2011. The Atlas of Economic Complexity:
Mapping Paths to Prosperity. Harvard Kennedy School,
htttp://www.cid.harvard.edu/documents/complexityatlas.pdf.
Stanford Network Analysis Project (SNAP) Website at: http://snap.stanford.edu
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Jennifer Ouellette, The New Laws of Explosive Networks,
https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-complex-networks-explode-with-growth-
20150714/
Matthew O. Jackson, Networks in The Understanding of Economic Behaviors, Journal of
Economic Perspectives VOL.28, NO.4, Fall 2014
Xiao Fan Wang and Guanrong Chen, Complex Networks: Small-World, Scale-Free and
Beyang IEEE Circuits and System Magazine First Quarter 2003
WEEK 7
Rendell, L., R. Boyd, D. Cownden, M. Enquist, K. Eriksson, M. W. Feldman, L. Fogarty,
S. Ghirlanda, T. Lillicrap, and K. N. Laland. 2010. “Why Copy Others? Insights from the
Social Learning Strategies Tournament.” Science 328 (5975) (April 9): 208–213.
WEEK 10
Holling, C.S. 1973. “Resilience and stability of ecological systems”. Annual Review of
Ecology and Systematics 4: 1-24.
Marten Scheffer, Francis Westley, William Brock, and Milena Holmgren 2002.
“Dynamic Interaction of Societies and Ecosystems—Linking Theories From Ecology,
Economy, and Sociology” in Gunderson and Holling: 195-239
Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations
Develop and Dissolve. Princeton University Press. (Chapters 1 - 2). Available on library
e- reserves
S.A. Levin. 1999. Fragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commons. Reading: Perseus
Books.
North, Douglass C., John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast. 2009. Violence and
Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History. 1st
ed. Cambridge University Press. Selections (TBA)
Raif Yorque, Brian Walker, C.S. Holling, Lance H. Gunderson, Carl Folke, Stephen
Carpenter, and William Brock, “Toward an Integrative Synthesis” in Gunderson and
Holling: 419-438 (e reserves).
WEEK 13
Dirk Helbing, 2009, Systemic Risks in Society and Economics, SFI WORKING PAPER: 2009-
12-044 WEEK 14
Barder, Owen. 2012. “What Is Development?” Global Development: Views from the
Center. http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2012/08/what-is-development.php.
Ramalingam, Ben. 2013. Aid on the Edge of Chaos: Rethinking International
Cooperation in a Complex World. London: Oxford University Press. Part III, pages 239 –
364
Michael Bamberger, Jos Vaessen, Estelle Raimondo , Dealing with Complexity in
Development Evaluation: A Practical Approach, 2016,SAGE Publications ,Inc.
Useful Background Sources: (Not Required) For a general overview of complexity:
Lance H. Gunderson and C.S. Holling eds., 2002. Panarchy: Understanding
Transformations in Human and Natural Systems Island Press, Washington DC.
Epstein, Joshua M. and Robert Axtell. 1996. Growing Artificial Societies, Social
Science from the Bottom Up, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC.
M. Mitchell Waldrop, 1993, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of
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Chaos. Simon & Schuster.
Mark Buchanan. 2007. Social Atom: Why the rich get richer, cheaters get caught, and
your neighbor usually looks like you. Bloomsbury Publishing.
Mandelbrot, Benoit and Richard L. Hudson, 2004, The (Mis)behavior of Markets: A
Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward, Basic Books, New York.
Mayer, Ernst. 2001. What Evolution Is. Basic Books, A Member of the Peruses
Books Group
Page, Scott. 2011. Diversity and Complexity. Princeton University Press.
Mitchell, Melanie. 2009. Complexity: A Guided Tour. Oxford University Press
Simon, Herbert A. 1996. The Sciences of the Artificial - 3rd Edition. 3rd ed. The MIT
Press
Acemoglu, Robinson , Verdier. "Can't We All Be More Like
Scandinavians? Asymmetric Growth and Institutions in an Interdependent World?”
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper
Series, Working Paper 12-22,August 20, 2012
General Software, Toolkits, and Hardware
A website reviewing academic work on evolutionary complexity and social science is
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/
Ada for Agent-Based Simulation
From Bruce R. Barkstrom (NOAA National Climate Data Center): "Ada, a
general purpose programming language originally developed by the U.S.
Department of Defence in 1983, appears to provide an appealing tool for
developing agent-based software. The language has undergone two major
revisions, one in 1995, and a second in 2005. An excellent open-source
implementation is available with the GPL license at the AdaCore Site, from
which it is possible to download both the GNAT GPL version and the GPS
Integrated Development Environment, as well as numerous other libraries and
toolkits. The reason Ada would appear to be an attractive language for agent-
based simulations is that Ada defines a model for concurrent programming as part
of the language itself. A task is an active component encapsulating a light-weight
process and it provides a simple model for executing multiple code blocks
concurrently - and for allowing different tasks to communicate and synchronize.
In cases in which it is necessary for concurrent processes to avoid interference,
Ada also provides protected entries and tasks. Because Ada has been designed to
handle embedded, distributed systems, it also has excellent exception handling
capabilities."
Brahms: Multi-Agent Discrete-Event Simulation (Java based)
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From the developers: " Brahms, developed by the Brahms Team in the
Computational Sciences Division at the NASA Ames Research Center, is a multi-
agent discrete-event simulation environment. It is also an Agent-Oriented
Language for implementing real-time distributed agents. There is an agent
language construct that can inherit from multiple group constructs. This permits
the modeling of teams of agents either interacting in one model or distributed over
multiple models. Agents are belief-based (BDI) activity-oriented, and both
deliberative and reactive. Besides agents, the Brahms language also includes
constructs for objects and object-class inheritance for modeling of data objects
and real-world artifacts. Agents and objects are located in a conceptual geography
model, enabling agent and object movement in this geography. The Brahms byte-
code is XML, which is interpreted by the Brahms Virtual Machine. Each Brahms
agent executes in a separate Java thread using a subsumption-based activity and
rule execution engine. Multiple Brahms Virtual Machines can interact together
via a network using a message- and directory-based communication layer. Agents
can publish themselves and locate others on a network, using a distributed
directory service. Agents interact via a message-based communication layer that
can be based on any low-level communication protocol, such as Corba, UDP,
TCP/IP, SOAP."
Brahms can be downloaded at Agent iSolutions. A Tutorial on Brahms is also
available.
Breve: 3-D Simulation Environment (Open Source)
Breve is a free software package that provides a 3-D environment for the
simulation of decentralized systems and artificial life. Users define the behaviors
of agents in a 3-D world and observe how they interact. Breve includes physical
simulation and collision detection for the simulation of realistic creatures, and an
OpenGL display engine so that users can visualize their simulated worlds. It is
available for Mac OS X, Linux, and Windows platforms.
MASON: Multi-Agent Simulator - Latest Release (Java, Open Source)
The George Mason University Evolutionary Computation Laboratory and Center
for Social Complexity has announced a new release (MASON 12) of the MASON
multiagent simulation toolkit. MASON contains both a model library and an
optional suite of visualization tools in 2D and 3D. MASON is a joint effort
between George Mason University's ECLab (Evolutionary Computation
Laboratory) and the GMU Center for Social Complexity, and was designed by
Sean Luke, Gabriel Catalin Balan, and Liviu Panait, with help from Claudio
Cioffi-Revilla, Sean Paus, Daniel Kuebrich, and Keith Sullivan. A SwarmFest04
presentation on MASON can be accessed here.
Repast Latest Releases (Java,Python,C#; Open Source)
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Repast (REcursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit) is an agent-based simulation
toolkit specifically designed for social science applications. Originally developed
by researchers at the University of Chicago and the Argonne National Laboratory,
Repast is now managed by the non-profit volunteer organization ROAD (Repast
Organization for Architecture and Development). Repast is currently released in
four versions supporting model development in three different languages: RepastJ
(Java based); RepastPy (based on the Python scripting language); Repast.Net
(implemented in C#, but any .Net language can be used); and Repast S
(Simphony, Java-based, developer's alpha release 2). Repast runs on virtually all
modern computing platforms (e.g., Windows, Mac OS, and Linux). The latest
Repast releases, along with detailed technical information regarding the
installation and use of RePast, can be found at the RePast Sourceforge Website.
NetLogo is a cross-platform multi-agent programmable modeling environment.
NetLogo was authored by Uri Wilensky in 1999 and is under continuous
development at the CCL (the people who brought you StarLogoT). NetLogo also
powers the HubNet participatory simulation system. NetLogo is free of charge.
For a fuller description, please go to: http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/docs/
Statement on special needs of students If you are a student with a disability and you need academic accommodations, please see
me and contact the Disability Resource Center (DRC) at 993-2474. All academic
accommodations must be arranged through the DRC.
Online Student Journal
New Voices in Public Policy: I will consider nominating the very best papers in this
course for publication in New Voices in Public Policy. New Voices is a student- and
faculty-reviewed journal that shares SPP's finest student work with the rest of the world.
SPP Policy on Plagiarism The profession of scholarship and the intellectual life of a university as well as the field
of public policy inquiry depend fundamentally on a foundation of trust. Thus any act of
plagiarism strikes at the heart of the meaning of the university and the purpose of the
School of Public Policy. It constitutes a serious breach of professional ethics and it is
unacceptable.
Plagiarism is the use of another’s words or ideas presented as one’s own. It includes,
among other things, the use of specific words, ideas, or frameworks that are the product
of another’s work. Honesty and thoroughness in citing sources is essential to professional
accountability and personal responsibility. Appropriate citation is necessary so that
arguments, evidence, and claims can be critically examined.
Plagiarism is wrong because of the injustice it does to the person whose ideas are stolen.
But it is also wrong because it constitutes lying to one’s professional colleagues. From a
prudential perspective, it is shortsighted and self-defeating, and it can ruin a professional
career.
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The faculty of the School of Public Policy takes plagiarism seriously and has adopted a
zero-tolerance policy. Any plagiarized assignment will receive an automatic grade of “F.”
This may lead to failure for the course, resulting in dismissal from the University. This
dismissal will be noted on the student’s transcript. For foreign students who are on a
university-sponsored visa (e.g. F-1, J-1 or J-2), dismissal also results in the revocation of
their visa.
To help enforce the SPP policy on plagiarism, all written work submitted in partial
fulfillment of course or degree requirements must be available in electronic form so that
it can be compared with electronic databases, as well as submitted to commercial services
to which the School subscribes. Faculty may at any time submit student’s work without
prior permission from the student. Individual instructors may require that written work be
submitted in electronic as well as printed form. The SPP policy on plagiarism is
supplementary to the George Mason University Honor Code; it is not intended to replace
it or substitute for it.
Topics of Recent Students’ Papers
Pan- Islamism: A Quiet Network of Resilience
The Complexity of Space Object Behavioral Science: A Surveillance Network
Toward Perfect Information
A Complexity Perspective on Bank Reserve Requirements
The Use of Social Media and Policing
The Network Structures and Cyber Ecosystem Impacts of Government Sponsored
Non-State Cybercrime Organizations
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