Draft Critical Challenges Section #3 Peak Oil

8/4/2019 Draft Critical Challenges Section #3 Peak Oil

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(Draft)

Section #3 The End of the Era of Cheap Energy(particularly in reference to Peak Oil)

(Statistics and Observations piece)

Part of a larger project

The IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011

which will be

a list ranking ten critical challenges which are

destabilizing efforts for quality of life and basic human needs worldwide

and organized so that there are two sections for each critical challenge identified

Statistics and Observations and Commentary

[Note: current Table of Contents included in this paper as Appendix]

by Stefan Pasti, Founder and Outreach Coordinator

The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative

(www.ipcri.net )

(July--September, 2011)

Contact Information:

Stefan Pasti, Founder and Outreach Coordinator

The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative

P. O Box 163 Leesburg, VA 20178 (USA)

[email protected] (703) 209-2093
http://www.ipcri.net/http://www.ipcri.net/


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3) The End of the Era of Cheap Energy (particularly in reference to Peak Oil)

[Note: This is a draft version of Section #3 of a larger project: IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment

2011. This writer invites comments, questions, suggestions, and recommendations in the hopes of

improving the final version, so that it can be as useful as possible to the work ahead.]

Statistics and Observations

a) From poster titled The Oil Age: World Oil Production 1859-2050 by SF Infomatics (from December

2010 edition available from the Post Carbon Institute (at http://www.postcarbon.org/book/40610-the-

new-oil-age-poster-dec )

Oil was created from the remains of plants and animals distilled over millions of years. The source of

most oil found today can be traced to two brief periods of global warming some 90 to 150 million years

ago, and to the shallow seas teeming with algae that covered much of the earth at the time. As

generations of sea life settled to the bottom, a unique carbon-rich sedimentary rock was formed. Over

time, some of the rock sank deep beneath the surface, where the earths natural heat gently cooked the

rocks organic fraction, transforming it into a dark liquid. Petroleumliterally rock oilwas born.

b) From introductory information to the book The Coming Oil Crisis by Colin J. Campbell Multi-

Science Pub. Co. & Petroconsultants, 1997 (at google books) (see

http://books.google.com/books?id=OXrtAAAAMAAJ&q=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&dq=the+

coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=_E1aTpWPMKH40gHE6tGUCQ&sa=X&oi=book_r

esult&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA (confirmed August 28, 2011)

The history and current status of the important oil industry are reviewed in this study of the geological

origins of oil and gas. Assessed are how much oil and gas has been produced, what remains in known

fields, and what is yet to be found, revealing how to properly interpret published numbers, many ofwhich are false or distorted by vested interests. The contention is made that the growing Middle East

control of the market is likely to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil before

physical shortages begin to appear within the first decade of the 21st century. The book further argues

that the coming oil crisis will create economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions as the

world adjusts to a new energy environment.

c) From article The End of Cheap Oil by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrere, Scientific American,

March 1998 (article accessible at http://dieoff.org/page140.htm ) (confirmed August 28, 2011)

(from paragraphs 20-22)

For the purposes of calculating when oil production will crest, even more critical than the size of the

worlds reserves is the size of ultimate recoveryall the cheap oil there is to be had. In order to

estimate that, we need to know whether, and how fast, reserves are moving up or down. It is here that

the official statistics become dangerously misleading.

According to most accounts, world oil reserves have marched steadily upward over the past 20 years.

Extending that apparent trend into the future, one could easily conclude, as the U.S. Energy Information
http://www.postcarbon.org/book/40610-the-new-oil-age-poster-dechttp://www.postcarbon.org/book/40610-the-new-oil-age-poster-dechttp://books.google.com/books?id=OXrtAAAAMAAJ&q=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&dq=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=_E1aTpWPMKH40gHE6tGUCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAAhttp://books.google.com/books?id=OXrtAAAAMAAJ&q=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&dq=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=_E1aTpWPMKH40gHE6tGUCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAAhttp://books.google.com/books?id=OXrtAAAAMAAJ&q=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&dq=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=_E1aTpWPMKH40gHE6tGUCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAAhttp://dieoff.org/page140.htmhttp://dieoff.org/page140.htmhttp://books.google.com/books?id=OXrtAAAAMAAJ&q=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&dq=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=_E1aTpWPMKH40gHE6tGUCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAAhttp://books.google.com/books?id=OXrtAAAAMAAJ&q=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&dq=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=_E1aTpWPMKH40gHE6tGUCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAAhttp://books.google.com/books?id=OXrtAAAAMAAJ&q=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&dq=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=_E1aTpWPMKH40gHE6tGUCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAAhttp://www.postcarbon.org/book/40610-the-new-oil-age-poster-dechttp://www.postcarbon.org/book/40610-the-new-oil-age-poster-dec


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Administration has, that oil production will continue to rise unhindered for decades to come, increasing

almost two thirds by 2020.

Such growth is an illusion. About 80 percent of the oil produced today flows from fields that were

found before 1973, and the great majority of them are declining.


The switch from growth to decline in oil production will thus almost certainly create economic and

political tension. Unless alternatives to crude oil quickly prove themselves, the market share of the OPEC

states in the Middle East will rise rapidly. Within two years, these nations share of the global oil

business will pass 30 percent, nearing the level reached during the oil-price shocks of the 1970s. By 2010

their share will quite probably hit 50 percent.

The world could thus see radical increases in oil prices. That alone might be sufficient to curb demand,

flattening production for perhaps 10 years. (Demand fell more than 10 percent after the 1979 shock and

took 17 years to recover.) But by 2010 or so, many Middle Eastern nations will themselves be past the

midpoint. World production will then have to fall.

With sufficient preparation, however, the transition to the post-oil economy need not be traumatic.

d) From the article The Oil Crash and You by Bruce Thomson (as representative of the Running on

Empty discussion forum at yahoo.com) (No publication date for this article, but this writers estimate is

2000-- 2001) There is a link from the below mentioned www.oilcrash.com to the article The Oil Crash

and You, but only the shorter version of the article seemed accessible. However, the shorter version

(at http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/running.htm ) did include the following notes in the section

Author of the Convince Sheet. at the bottom of the article. The longer version is still accessible at

http://greatchange.org/othervoices.html

Bruce Thomson, who is a technical writer in Palmerston North, New Zealand, and is the moderator of

that RunningOnEmpty2internet forum. Members of that group have assisted in the research. There is noinstitutional financial sponsoring or influence of this web page or the forum.

Some moral authority to expose the Convince Sheet to the public was gained. After weeks of debate

(3,100 forum message) there was a poll of 280 members. We all knew the announcement would be

disturbing, with possibly serious impacts on the public, the stock market and general business and

personal confidence. Of those 280 polled, 62 members responded, and over 85% of them voted in favor

of exposing the truth.

The longer version is still accessible at http://greatchange.org/othervoices.html and includes the

following (in the By Products of Oil section):

Many people associate gasoline or diesel fuel with crude oil, but not the huge number of products that

are used everyday. The items produced from crude oil are astounding and number in the thousands.

Scientists have identified at least 500,000 different uses of oil.
http://www.oilcrash.com/http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/running.htmhttp://greatchange.org/othervoices.htmlhttp://greatchange.org/othervoices.htmlhttp://greatchange.org/othervoices.htmlhttp://greatchange.org/othervoices.htmlhttp://www.oilcrash.com/articles/running.htmhttp://www.oilcrash.com/


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Examples:

Saccharine (artificial sweetener), roofing paper, aspirin, hair coloring, heart valves, crayons, parachutes,

telephones, bras, transparent tape, antiseptics, purses, deodorant, panty hose, air conditioners, shower

curtains, shoes, volleyballs, electrician's tape, floor wax, lipstick, sweaters, running shoes, bubble gum,

car bodies, tires, house paint, hair dryers, guitar strings, pens, ammonia, eyeglasses, contacts, life

jackets, insect repellent, fertilizers, hair coloring, movie film, ice chests, loudspeakers, basketballs,

footballs, combs/brushes, linoleum, fishing rods, rubber boots, water pipes, vitamin capsules,

motorcycle helmets, fishing lures, petroleum jelly, lip balm, antihistamines, golf balls, dice, insulation,

glycerin, typewriter/computer ribbons, trash bags, rubber cement, cold cream, umbrellas, ink of all

types, wax paper, paint brushes, hearing aids, compact discs, mops, bandages, artificial turf, cameras,

glue, shoe polish, caulking, tape recorders, stereos, plywood adhesives, TV cabinets, toilet seats, car

batteries, candles, refrigerator seals, carpet, cortisone, vaporizers, solvents, nail polish, denture

adhesives, balloons, boats, dresses, shirts (non-cotton), perfumes, toothpaste, roller-skate wheels,

plastic forks, tennis rackets, hair curlers, plastic cups, electric blankets, oil filters, floor wax, Ping-Pong

paddles, cassette tapes, dishwashing liquid, water skis, upholstery, chewing gum, thermos bottles,

plastic chairs, transparencies, plastic wrap, rubber bands, computers, gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene,

heating oil, asphalt, motor oil, jet fuel, marine diesel, butane "

Dr. Gary L. Stringer Northeast Louisiana University

e) From Statement at www.oilcrash.com Homepage ofwww.oilcrash.com includes introductory

comments made by Robert Atack and dated January 12, 2003 This website also includes an extensive

links section. (below excerpt is concluding section of Statement, at

http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/statemnt.htm ) (confirmed August 28, 2011)

We call on all governments of the world to recognize the gravity of the oil peak problem.

Oil peak is an inevitability. The first warnings were made public nearly half a century ago, and were

largely ignored. Increasingly since that time, the oil geology community has expressed concerns aboutglobal oil supplies. Since 1995, a group of veteran geologists has been issuing highly specific warnings

based on exhaustive analysis. It is well past the time to hear their call.

Oil peak is the most pivotal challenge ever to face human civilization. To address it, we must join

together in acknowledgement of our collective vulnerability, and work together on changes to the

structure of our culture and civilization never attempted before. We do not underestimate the

magnitude of the task, nor the low likelihood of its being achieved without far reaching consequences.

The consequences of a failure to act, however, are beyond comprehension.

Please join us by adopting this statement and becoming part of the community working to develop

responses at every level.

f) From article Peak Oil Primer by Adam Grubb (archived January 1, 2004 at

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/36422 and last updated February, 2008) Note: The most current

Peak Oil Primer is at http://www.energybulletin.net/primer ; the archived version is cited here to

indicate a starting point for the Energy Bulletin website. Adam Grubb (writing as Adam Fenderson) and

Liam Cranley of Melbourne, Australia, founded Energy Bulletin in 2004. The site attracted a community

who submitted articles and suggestions. Since 2004, Energy Bulletin has served as a clearinghouse for
http://www.oilcrash.com/http://www.oilcrash.com/http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/statemnt.htmhttp://www.energybulletin.net/node/36422http://www.energybulletin.net/primerhttp://www.energybulletin.net/primerhttp://www.energybulletin.net/node/36422http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/statemnt.htmhttp://www.oilcrash.com/http://www.oilcrash.com/


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information regarding sustainability, resource depletion and the peak in global energy supply. Its online

archives contain several thousand articles available to the public. On January 14, 2009, Energy Bulletin

was adopted as a core program by the Post Carbon Institute. Additional excerpts from the most current

Peak Oil Primer are in entry m)

(from paragraph 1)

Peak oilis the simplest label for the problem of energy resource depletion, or more specifically, thepeak in global oil production. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, one that has powered phenomenal

economic and population growth over the last century and a half. The rate of oil 'production', meaning

extraction and refining (currently about 85 million barrels/day), has grown almost every year of the last

century. Once we have used up about half of the original reserves, oil production becomes ever more

likely stop growing and begin a terminal decline, hence 'peak'. The peak in oil production does not

signify 'running out of oil', but it does mean the end of cheap oil, as we switch from a buyers' to a sellers'

market. For economies leveraged on ever increasing quantities of cheap oil, the consequences may be

dire. Without significant successful cultural reform, severe economic and social consequences seem

inevitable.

g) From the introduction to The Partys Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, by Richard

Heinberg (Gabriola Island, British Columbia: New Society Publishers, 2003; Note: access to the

introduction and many sections of the book may be possible through google books at

http://books.google.com/books?id=XIsfb8CN6qkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+party's+over&hl=en&e

i=f2haTo7TKePD0AHLwNGTCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=on

epage&q&f=false

(from the first two paragraphs of the introduction)

The world is changing before our eyesdramatically, inevitably, and irreversibly. The change we areseeing is affecting more people, and more profoundly, than any that human beings have ever witnessed.

I am not referring to a war or terrorist incident, a stock market crash, or global warming, but to a more

fundamental reality that is driving terrorism, war, economic swings, climate change and more: the

discovery and exhaustion of fossil energy resources.

The core message of this book is that industrial civilization is based on the consumption of energy

resources that are inherently limited in quantity, andthat are about to become more scarce. When they

do, competition for what remains will trigger dramatic economic and geopolitical events; in the end, it

may be impossible for a single nation to sustain industrialism as we have known it during the 20th

Century.

(from p. 4 of the introduction)

The message here is that we are about to enter a new era in which, each year, less net energy will be

available to humankind, regardless of our efforts or choices. The only significant choice we will have is

how to adjust to this new regime. That choicenot whether, but how to reduce energy usage and

make a transition to renewable alternativeswill have profound ethical and political implications.
http://www.postcarbon.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Heinberghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Heinberghttp://books.google.com/books?id=XIsfb8CN6qkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+party%27s+over&hl=en&ei=f2haTo7TKePD0AHLwNGTCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=falsehttp://books.google.com/books?id=XIsfb8CN6qkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+party%27s+over&hl=en&ei=f2haTo7TKePD0AHLwNGTCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=falsehttp://books.google.com/books?id=XIsfb8CN6qkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+party%27s+over&hl=en&ei=f2haTo7TKePD0AHLwNGTCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=falsehttp://books.google.com/books?id=XIsfb8CN6qkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+party%27s+over&hl=en&ei=f2haTo7TKePD0AHLwNGTCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=falsehttp://books.google.com/books?id=XIsfb8CN6qkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+party%27s+over&hl=en&ei=f2haTo7TKePD0AHLwNGTCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=falsehttp://books.google.com/books?id=XIsfb8CN6qkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+party%27s+over&hl=en&ei=f2haTo7TKePD0AHLwNGTCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=falsehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Heinberghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Heinberghttp://www.postcarbon.org/


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h) From review (dated July 19, 2004) by Publishers Weekly (Reed Business Information) of Blood and

Oil: the dangers and consequences of Americas growing petroleum dependency by Michael T. Klare

Metropolitan Books August, 2004 (at http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-8050-7313-3 )

(confirmed August 30, 2011)

The world's rapidly growing economy is dependent on oil, the supply is running out and the U.S. and

other great powers are engaged in an escalating game of brinkmanship to secure its continued free flow.

Such is the premise of Klare's powerful and brilliant new book (following Resource Wars). The U.S.-with

less than 5% of the world's total population-consumes about 25% of the world's total supply of oil, he

argues. With no meaningful conservation being attempted, Klare sees the nation's energy behavior

dominated by four key trends: "an increasing need for imported oil; a pronounced shift toward unstable

and unfriendly suppliers in dangerous parts of the world; a greater risk of anti-American or civil violence;

and increased competition for what will likely be a diminishing supply pool." In clear, lucid prose, Klare

lays out a disheartening and damning indictment of U.S. foreign policy. From the waning days of WWII,

when Franklin Roosevelt gave legitimacy to the autocratic Saudi royalty, to the current conflict in Iraq,

Klare painstakingly describes a nation controlled by its unquenchable thirst for oil. Rather than setting

out a strategy for energy independence, he finds a roadmap for further U.S. dependence on imported

oil, more exposure for the U.S. military overseas and, as a result, less safety for Americans at home andabroad. While Klare offers some positive suggestions for solving the problem, in tone and detail this

work sounds a dire warning about the future of the world.

(from Amazon.com page for Michael T. Klare)

[Note: Michael T. Klare is a Five Colleges professor of Peace and World Security Studies, whose

department is located at Hampshire College, defense correspondent of The Nation magazine, and

author of Resource Wars and Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing

Petroleum Dependency (Metropolitan). Klare also teaches at Amherst College, Smith College, Mount

Holyoke College, and the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Klare also serves on the boards of

directors of Human Rights Watch, and the Arms Control Association. He is a regular contributor to manypublications including The Nation, TomDispatch, Mother Jones, and is a frequent columnist for Foreign

Policy In Focus.]

i) From the keynote speech Beyond the Peak by Richard Heinberg at the First U.S. Conference on

Peak Oil and Community Solutions in Yellow Springs, OH (November 12-14, 2004)[sponsored by

Community Solutions (the Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions)]. Text of Richard Heinberg

speech at http://richardheinberg.com/152-beyond-the-peak (confirmed August 28, 2011) More

information about the conference at http://www.communitysolution.org/04conf.html

Even though this conference is spectacularly well attended from the standpoint of the expectations of

the organizers, we are comparatively few. And the message we are communicating is not being heard by

the great majority of our fellow citizens. It is probably optimistic to think that it will be understood by

more than one or two percent of the population. However, if that seed nucleus of the total citizenry

really gets it, we may have a chance. We all know what seeds are capable of. (10th paragraph from the

end)
http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-8050-7313-3http://richardheinberg.com/152-beyond-the-peakhttp://www.communitysolution.org/04conf.htmlhttp://www.communitysolution.org/04conf.htmlhttp://richardheinberg.com/152-beyond-the-peakhttp://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-8050-7313-3


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j) From the Hirsch Report [The Peaking ofWorld Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk

ManagementProject Leader: Robert L. Hirsch (SAIC) Commissioned by the Department of Energy, and

dated February, 2005] [Accessible at the website of Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD)(USA) at

www.bartlett.house.gov/EnergyUpdates/ ] (see

http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hirschreport.pdf) (confirmed April 3, 2011)

(in Summary and Concluding Remarks)

Over the past century the development of the U.S. economy and lifestyle has been fundamentally

shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Oil scarcity and several-fold oil price increases due

to world oil production peaking could have dramatic impacts. (see Point #2: Oil Peaking Could Cost theU.S. Economy Dearly, p. 64)

The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade

before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. (see Point #3: OilPeaking Presents a Unique Challenge, p. 64)

(in Executive Summary)

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk

management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will

increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs

will be unprecedented. (see paragraph 1, p. 4)

k) About www.theoildrum.com (Note: The Oil Drum is published by the Institute for the Study of

Energy and Our Future, a 501(c)(3) non-profit corporation.)

(from the Wikipedia entry for The Oil Drum at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Oil_Drum ) (confirmed

August 28, 2011) (see paragraph 3)

The Oil Drum was started in March 2005 by Kyle Saunders (username "Prof. Goose"), a professor of

political science at Colorado State University, and Dave Summers (username "Heading Out"), a professor

ofmining engineering at Missouri University of Science and Technology (then known as University of

Missouri-Rolla). The site first rose to prominence following its coverage of the impact of

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on oil and gas production. Since then, the staff has grown by dozens and

the site has become well-known for rigorous, quantitative analysis of energy production and

consumption. A notable example is former editor Stuart Staniford's analysis of the depletion ofSaudi

Arabia's Ghawar oil field (Depletion Levels in Ghawar)

(from the Mission Statement section ofwww.theoildrum.com )

Mission Statement

Conventional political, economic, and media institutions have yet to recognize energys role as a key

contributor to society, and its importance as a driver for all of our physical processes and economic

transactions. The Oil Drum seeks to facilitate civil, evidence-based discussions about energy and its

impacts on the future of humanity, as well as serve as a leading online knowledge-base for energy-

related topics.
http://www.bartlett.house.gov/EnergyUpdates/http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hirschreport.pdfhttp://www.theoildrum.com/http://www.iseof.org/http://www.iseof.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Oil_Drumhttp://lamar.colostate.edu/~ksaun/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_sciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_State_Universityhttp://rockmech.mst.edu/people/faculty.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_engineeringhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_University_of_Science_and_Technologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ritahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghawar_Fieldhttp://www.theoildrum.com/node/2470http://www.theoildrum.com/http://www.theoildrum.com/special/missionhttp://www.theoildrum.com/special/missionhttp://www.theoildrum.com/http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2470http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghawar_Fieldhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ritahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_University_of_Science_and_Technologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_engineeringhttp://rockmech.mst.edu/people/faculty.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_State_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_sciencehttp://lamar.colostate.edu/~ksaun/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Oil_Drumhttp://www.iseof.org/http://www.iseof.org/http://www.theoildrum.com/http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hirschreport.pdfhttp://www.bartlett.house.gov/EnergyUpdates/


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1. Raise awareness

Most people are not aware of societys profound dependency on energy and the magnitude of the

problems we may face if energy becomes either too expensive or scarce. Politicians and the traditional

media have tended to overlook these issues, out of ignorance or due to conflicts of interest. We seek to

fill this information gap, disseminating under-reported facts and analysis and providing an educational

forum for those interested and engaged in energys role in society.

l) Interview with Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil by David Room of Global Public Media on April 27, 2005

Accessible at the Energy Bulletin website (at http://www.energybulletin.net/node/5790 ) (confirmed

August 28, 2011) (see first question, fourth question, and last question)

[Note: Elected to serve his tenth term in the United States House of Representatives, Roscoe G. Bartlett

considers himself a citizen-legislator, not a politician. Prior to his election to Congress, he pursued

successful careers as a professor, research scientist and inventor, small business owner, and farmer. He

was first elected in 1992 to represent Maryland's Sixth District.]

Description: Maryland Representative Roscoe Bartlett speaks with David Room of Global Public Media

about his special order speeches to the United States Congress. Mr. Bartlett discusses the response to

his speeches and his plans for educating the public. He also discusses ramifications of oil peak, the

responsibilities of leadership, and the need for a change in how we define success.

David Room: .Tonight youre going to deliver your third special order speech, how did this come

about?

Roscoe Bartlett: I have been concerned for a number of years that there will be an end to high-quality

readily-available oil; that the United States in particular and the world in general ought to be posturingthemselves for a transition. This, of course, has been largely totally ignored. Its not like we shouldnt

have seen it coming because, as you know, M. King Hubbert predicted in 56 that we would peak in

about 1970 in the United States. We did, right on target. So by 1980 we were ten years down that slope,

producing less oil than we had produced in 1970. By 1985 we absolutely knew that M. King Hubbert was

right about the United States. He predicted that the world would peak in about 2000that slipped a

little because of the Arab oil embargo, oil price spike hikes and a worldwide recession (which he, of

course, couldnt have foreseen). So its very probable that the world is peaking in oil about now. If the

first time that you recognize that we have peak oil is when its peaking, then its too late for many things

that you shouldve been doing long before youve reached peak oil. The world in general, and the U.S in

particular, has pretty much blown 25 years of time that we had, but no longer have, for preparation for

the necessary transition.

.DR: Could you explain, for our audience, how these special order speeches work?

RB: After the close of business, there are two kinds of opportunities for special order speeches: one is

five minutes and you can get up and, as long as youre not obscene or betraying your country or

something, you can talk about anything that you wish to talk about. Following those, there are hours;

you can claim sixty minutes. Leadership on each side has the first sixty minute hour, and sometimes we

get the leadership hour, sometimes we dont. Following that anybody can claim sixty minutes of special
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order. This is very important particularly to the minority. Im fortunate, now Im not in the minority. Its

very important for the minority because they dont have any other way of getting their message out.

This was really used by Republicans in all those many years that the Democrats were in control. Now its

very important to Democrats because it gives them an opportunity to their message outthey dont

have the Presidency now and they dont have the Committee Chairs. This gives them an opportunity to

get your message out. So this is a unique way of communicating with the public. On average, probably

about a million and a half people listen to this at any one time. That audience varies, depending on the

time of day and so forth. When we do this several times were talking to, not the same audience, but to

somewhat different audiences. In a former life, I was a teacher and I understand that repetition is the

soul of learning. I dont mind repeating it. I try to do it in a somewhat different way so that it will be new

and still stimulating to the people that are hearing it. Even if the basic message is the same message,

you use different charts and different facts and a different approach..

.DR: I have one last question, I really appreciate the time you have been giving this. How did you find

out about peak oil and when was this?

RB: Probably 30 years ago I was concerned about this. In another life, I was teaching school and all the

textbooks came over my desk. I was teaching the biological area, I taught human anatomy andphysiology and I taught a basic biology course, too. All the books would come over my desk to see if I

would use them for my class so they could sell some books. They sent me at least one of every new

textbook. I always turned to the environmental chapter and the energy chapter and read.

Its not that people didnt know this was coming. We certainly did know, weve known for a very long

time. Im very privileged to have a staff member who has been concerned about this. Weve been

friends for 25-30 years probably. He is great Dr. John Garnell, he is very knowledgeable in this.

Theres no other combination in the Congress where they had a Congressman who was himself

interested in this and had a staff member that is knowledgeable in it and has a background in it. Were

kind of in a unique position, and were trying to exploit that position to be useful to our country and to

try and get this word out. And I was a teacher in a former life but this is kind of the role were playing

now. Its kind of like teaching and its kind of fun. You have an audience out there and I cant see them (amillion and a half people), but Im used to teaching and its a matter of educating. I believe that

repetition is the soul of learning, so I dont mind saying the same thing in different ways over and over

again. Ive had students who have had difficulty in some concepts, but boys who go over it often

enough, by-and-by, they get a bright look on their face and they finally got it. Were trying to do that

with our people.

m) From article Review: Twilight in the Desert by Frank Kaminski (posted December 15, 2010 at

the Energy Bulletin website [Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economyby Matthew R. Simmons 448 pp., hardcover. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. June, 2005.] (from paragraphs 2-4 and 9, at http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-12-15/review-twilight-desert-matt-simmons)

It has been said of Simmons that no one in America was more influential in warning of the coming oil

crisis, and that's surely true enough. Appearing in documentaries and in frequent TV and radio spots, he

was a vital go-between for journalists reporting on the ever-escalating cost of fuel and a pained,

bewildered public. He had even been a presidential energy advisor. But that description of Simmons

only scratches the surface, for he did far more than simply raise awareness of oil depletion. Above all, he

was the voice of informed reason in debates over whether Saudi Arabia, long the world's oil producer of
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last resort, could indefinitely continue to provide whatever quantities of oil the global economy may

need.

His controversial bestselling book Twilight in the Desertrepresents the seminal attempt to answer thisquestion. He began writing it in 2003, following a visit to the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's state-owned

oil company, Saudi Aramco. Simmons was then chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company

International, an investment banking firm that he'd founded in 1974 and that has since acted as financial

advisor on more than $134 billion in transactions within the oil and gas services industry. During the

visit, a Saudi Aramco senior manager explained that the company used "fuzzy logic" to maximize

recovery from the nation's oilfields. That term didn't sit well with Simmons, and for the first time he

became skeptical of Saudi Arabia's alleged oil potential.

His skepticism was confirmed when he came across an extensive collection of technical papers from

the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) offering an in-depth look into Saudi oil production over the

past 40 years. This collection, containing more than 200 papers, documented a decades-long saga of

technical difficulties that had taxed the talents and ingenuity of some of the world's foremost oil

engineers. The picture that these documents painted was a far cry from the boastful claims long made

by Saudi officialdom regarding the supposed robustness of its oilfields.....

.Twilightis organized into a neat, easy-to-follow structure with four main sections. Parts one and twosupply background information that is crucial to understanding the technical discussions in parts three

and four. This background includes an account of Saudi Arabia's brief national history and how it came

to dominate the world oil market, a detailed run-down of Saudi Aramco's operations and a basic primer

on the steps involved in discovering and developing oil reserves. The books third part is an exhaustive

assessment of each of Saudi Arabias dozen or so major fields and their unique technical challenges. And

finally, the last section of the book explores at length the social, institutional and economic implications

of the waning of Saudi Arabia's oil bounty.

n) From newspaper advertisements which were part of Chevrons initial Will You Join Us? campaign

(from the December 20, 2005 issue of the Washington Post; pages A16 and A17)

The world consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered. So is this something you should be

worried about?

The fact is, the world has been finding less oil than its been using for twenty years now. Not only has

demand been soaring, but the oil weve been finding is coming from places that are tough to reach. At

the same time, more of this newly discovered oil is of the type that requires a greater investment to

refine. And because demand for this precious resource will grow, according to some, by over 40% by

2025, fueling the worlds growing economic prosperity will take a lot more energy from every possible

source.

(from the May 1, 2006 issue of the Washington Post; pages A10 and A11)

Russia, Iran, and Qatar have 58% of the worlds natural gas reserves. The U.S. has 3%. So what does

that mean for us?


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As demand for power and fuel grows steadily in the coming decades, we must consider every viable

energy source at hand if were to meet the worlds needs. And because clean natural gas is found in

abundance there is little doubt that it will play a major role on the world energy state in this century,

much like oil did in the last. But, like oil, gas reserves are concentrated in just a few places in the world,

usually far from where theyre needed most. And thats only part of the challenge. The world has had

well over 100 years to search for oil and to build the necessary infrastructure to bring it to market; the

natural gas infrastructure, particularly when it comes to liquefied natural gas (LNG), is not nearly as

developed.

(from the November 13, 2006 issue of the Washington Post; pages A10 and A11)

There are 193 counties in the world. None of them are energy independent. So whos holding whom

over a barrel?

The fact is, the vast majority of countries rely on the few energy-producing nations that won the

geological lottery, blessing them with abundant hydrocarbons. And yet, even regions with plenty of raw

resources import some form of energy. Saudi Arabia, for example, the worlds largest oil exporter,

imports refined petroleum products like gasoline.

So if energy independence is an unrealistic goal, how does everyone get the fuel they need, especially

in a world of rising demand, supply disruptions, natural disasters, and unstable regimes?

o) From an Army Corps of Engineers Report (Engineer Research and Development Center) titled

Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations Donald F. Fournier and Eileen T.

Westervelt September 2005 Accessible from the energycrisis.org website (in section Issues subsection

Security of the Executive Summary (p. 5); see

http://www.energycrisis.org/us/army/EnergyTrends2005.pdf) (Confirmed April 3, 2011)

[Note: quoted by Roscoe Bartlett, Congressman, House of Representatives (R-MD) (USA) in his March

14, 2006 special presentation) (see http://www.xecu.net/thorn/PO/PO-March14-2006.html ) (Report

Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations also accessible from the website of

Congressman Bartlett (see

http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/U.S.%20Army%20Corp%20of%20Engineers-

Energy%20Report.pdf) (Confirmed April 3, 2011)]

The United States currently has 5 percent of the worlds population, but uses 25 percent of the worlds

annual energy production. This disproportionate consumption of energy relative to global consumption

causes loss of the worlds good will and provides a context for potential military conflicts, at the cost of

lives, money, and political capital. A more equitable distribution of resources is in our best interest for a

peaceful future.

p) From article Unleashing Abundance as a Community Response to Peak Oil: Designing Energy

Descent Pathways by Rob Hopkins in Issue #59 of Permaculture Activist magazine (Spring, 2006) (at

http://permacultureactivist.net/articles/EnergyDescent.htm ) (see paragraph 1 and 2) (confirmed

August 28, 2011)
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There is an emerging consensus now that we are either very close to or have passed the peak in world

oil production. As someone who has been involved in environmental issues for 16 years, and

permaculture for 13 years, I have to ask myself how I didn't see this one coming (although I know some

of you did!). The implications are profound. No longer is it in any way appropriate to say 'we need to

recycle,' when the processes of recycling require transporting recyclable waste long distances. We have

to look much deeper at the whole waste question. An excellent recent report by Tim Lang and Jules

Pretty, 'Farm Costs and Food Miles: An Assessment of the Full Cost of the UK Weekly Food Basket,' argued that

food could only be called sustainable when it is grown and consumed within a 20-mile radius. We have

to build a local food economy from an almost totally non-existent base. There has been no time in

history when anything less than 70% of the population were involved in some way in the production of

food. Nowadays it is more like 6% (here in Ireland, for example), and of those, a high proportion would

have lost much of that knowledge. "Green" building that relies on imported "ecological" materials from

other countries will no longer be viable, leading to our needing to rethink how we will actually construct

energy-efficient shelter in a lower energy near future. We are looking at the need for a rapid process of

re-localisation, of looking at what is essential to our lives (food, warmth, shelter, water) and rebuilding

the local economy in such a way that it is actually able to supply these. The process of dismantling our

diverse and complex local economies over the last 50-60 years was a disastrous one. It was easy to take

apart but it will be incredibly hard to rebuild.

The recent award winning film The End of Suburbia (reviewed in the Activist issue #58) takes a verysobering look at the whole peak oil issue. It makes very clear that the problem is of a scale that is almost

unimaginable, and that the solutions are really not in place at all, or indeed anywhere near being so. We

are so dependent on oil for every aspect of our lives, that its gradual (or rapid, depending on who you

listen to) but steady disappearance from our lives will force us to redesign everything about our

communities and our own lives. We need to relearn the skills that sustained our ancestors: crafts, local

medicines, the great art of growing food. This is the biggest challenge.

q) From the final report of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force (March, 2007) titled Descending the OilPeak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas (at

http://www.portlandonline.com/bps/index.cfm?c=42894&a=145732 ) (in Executive Summary, p. 2

and 3)

Recommendations: Act Big, Act Now

The Task Force findings illustrate the profound economic and social vulnerabilities that could result

as fuel supplies cease to be abundant and inexpensive. The magnitude of this issue led the Task

Force to explore bold and far-reaching solutions. The Task Force is unified in urging strong and

immediate action.

The Task Force recommends preparedness on two different levels. Most of the recommendations

seek to reduce Portlands exposure to rising fuel prices, anticipating the economic and lifestyle

adjustments that will be needed in the future. Other recommendations prepare Portland to maintain

community stability as volatile energy markets trigger conditions ranging from emergency

shortages to longer-term economic and social disruption.

Reduce Portlands exposure: The Task Force proposes cutting oil and natural gas consumption in half,

transforming how energy is used in transportation, food supply, buildings and manufacturing. It
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proposes strategies to maintain business viability and employment in an energy-constrained

marketplace.

Strengthen community cohesion: However well Portland succeeds in its energy transition, it will

not be able to isolate itself from global energy crises or the resulting economic implications. The

Task Force sees the potential for profound economic hardship and high levels of unemployment,

and it recommends having plans in place to adapt social and economic support systems accordingly.

Similarly, contingency plans are needed for fuel shortages that may last for months or years, well

beyond the time considered in existing emergency plans.

The Task Force recommends a comprehensive package of actions, proposing strategies to initiate

institutional change and to motivate action by households and businesses. The recommendations

propose major changes for Portland, but the Task Force believes their implementation can have a

positive social and economic impact as local residents and businesses spend less on imported fuels

and redirect dollars into the local economy. This presents a significant economic development

opportunity for Portland.

While all the recommendations are important, achieving a significant reduction in oil and naturalgas use is a necessity for easing the transition to an energy-constrained future.

1. Reduce total oil and natural gas consumption by 50 percent over the next 25 years.

Leadership builds the public will, community spirit and institutional capacity needed to implement

the ambitious changes. Leadership is needed to build partnerships to address these issues at a

regional and statewide level.

2. Inform citizens about peak oil and foster community and community-based solutions.

3. Engage business, government and community leaders to initiate planning and policy change.

Urban design addresses the challenge at a community scale.

4. Support land use patterns that reduce transportation needs, promote walkability and provide

easy access to services and transportation options.

5. Design infrastructure to promote transportation options and facilitate efficient movement of

freight, and prevent infrastructure investments that would not be prudent given fuel

shortages and higher prices.

Expanded efficiency and conservation programs shape the many energy choices made by

individual households and businesses.

6. Encourage energy-efficient and renewable transportation choices.

7. Expand building energy-efficiency programs and incentives for all new and existing structures.

Sustainable economic development fosters the growth of businesses that can supply energy efficient

solutions and provide employment and wealth creation in a new economic context.

8. Preserve farmland and expand local food production and processing.

9. Identify and promote sustainable business opportunities.


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Social and economic support systems will be needed to help Portlanders dislocated by the effects of

fuel price increases.

10. Redesign the safety net and protect vulnerable and marginalized populations.

Emergency plans should be in place to respond to sudden price increases or supply interruptions.

11. Prepare emergency plans for sudden and severe shortages.

Each of these 11 major recommendations is accompanied by a series of action items detailing how

it can be implemented.

[Note: as an update to this information, here are references from the current Portland Online website

From the website for Bureau of Planning and Sustainability--City of Portland, Oregon (at

http://www.portlandonline.com/bps/index.cfm?c=28534 ) (confirmed September 3, 2011)

(from Biography for Susan Anderson (Director) (athttp://www.portlandonline.com/bps/index.cfm?c=42756& ) (paragraph 2)

BPS is the lead agency (with 110 staff) for development and implementation of the Portland Plan

including a 25 year strategic plan and five year action plan to make Portland a thriving and sustainable

city that is equitable, prosperous and healthy.

(from homepage; in left sidebar)

To create and enhance a vibrant city, BPS combines the disciplines of planning and sustainability to

advance Portlands diverse and distinct neighborhoods, promote a prosperous and low-carbon

economy, provide a forum for community engagement and education and help ensure that people andthe natural environment are healthy and integrated into the cityscape.] (end of update)

r) From an interview of Albert Bates (Director of The Farms Ecovillage Training Center since 1994) for

the Spring, 2007 issue of New Southerner magazine (interview by David M. Buchanan) (Note: no longer

accessible at the New Southerner magazine website, but still accessible from the following blogspot

http://cantate-domino.blogspot.com/2007/05/new-southerner-interview-of-albert.html)

Interview Title: The Good News about Oil Depletion: Albert Bates discusses how life can be simpler

and happier for generations to come

Bates has been director of the Global Village Institute for Appropriate Technology since 1984 and TheFarm's Ecovillage Training Center since 1994, where he has taught sustainable design, natural building,

permaculture and restoration ecology to students from more than 50 nations.

We sat down in his one-room home, constructed of straw bale and plastered with stucco, to talk about

his new book, The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook: Recipes for Changing Times (NewSociety Publishers, 2006).
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David Buchanan: Rather than treat oil depletion as an apocalypse, you take a positive approach in your

book, embracing what you call "The Big Change." When and how did you decide this could be a positive

thing for society?

Albert Bates: It's the product of a lifetime experience. Over the last 30 years, Ive been living a much

simpler lifestyle, and I've found it better in a variety of ways for a lot of different reasons. I've found that

living simpler is actually more pleasurable, more enjoyable than the frenetic pace of life that most

people live today. As we move from a society based on intensive use of energy to one that has to live

within a resourced budget, we will find that we can go to more elegant styles of living that consume

much less but are also much more fun..

.DB: Your book says we're reaching critical mass with the oil issue. However, some analysts say the

peak-oil theory is flawed. Some claim global oil production will not peak before 2030, and with the

technology and opening of new frontiers, it's unlikely that oil production will peak in the next 60 or 70

years. How do we know who to believe?

AB: Yeah, we heard this about tobacco, and we heard this about radioactivity. And we heard this aboutclimate change. I think the number of experts keeps going down the ones that say we don't have a

problem here. We have a problem. We have reached a point now at 85 million barrels a day in

production and despite the best efforts of Saudi Arabia to push that up, they've not been able to.

We've seen the decline of Mexico's largest oil field, which is now dropping 15 percent per year in

production. This is happening all over the world . We're getting to the stage now where, with the

demand up from China and India and others, we should be producing more oil, and we're not. We're

producing less. That's going to begin to change things. It's going to change the prices, and it's going to

change the availability of a lot of consumer goods that we take for granted..

.DB: Why should people even care about it?

AB: It's going to affect us. But more importantly, it's going to affect our children and our grandchildren.

There's a proverb in Saudi Arabia: My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I ride a jet plane.

My son will ride a camel. I think that's indicative of what we need to think about in the near future.

What's life going to be like for our children? We've grown up with a paradigm of constant growth,

constant expansion, things always getting bigger and better. Now we have to change paradigms. We

need to think about shrinking, about having a smaller world population, about having limits on how

much we can travel and how expensive things are. We're going to be going through a change and our

children are going to go through a change, and we all need to be preparing for that, not just some of us.

DB: How do local economies fit into this picture, and why is supporting local economies such a good

thing, particularly for a world without oil or other natural resources?

AB: You might be getting your food from 3,000 miles away. You might be getting your shoes from Italy

or your belt from Brazil. So you need to think about how these things come to you and how long a

distance they travel. It might be more effective and efficient to have production locally, like belts and

shoes in your town. You might find that there's a lot of time and money to be saved by repairing old

things rather than buying new things.


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I think that as we go through the coming years, life will actually become better. We'll find that we have

more time for the kinds of things that we enjoy than we currently spend in traffic jams waiting to get to

work. Or in various different pursuits that are necessary to produce an income to pay off a mortgage, to

pay back college loans and so forth. What we really need is to be able to garden and grow our own food

and have our own local economies.

People sometimes hold out places like the Farm as a model. I don't think we see ourselves that way.

We're just normal folks. We're living with one foot in the last century and one foot in the next century.

We're having to buy stuff at big-box stores just like everybody, and we have to try to adjust and make

changes as we can afford them, just like everybody. Not everybody can afford to have solar cells on their

roof or rooftop water catchment. But as you can invest in that, you try. I don't think there's any need to

hit people over the head for their slowness or their lack of greenness. Whether you're muddy brown or

iridescent green hardly matters in the scheme of things. What you really need to be doing is trying to

improve your footprint to be lighter on the planet.

DB: What do you say to a generation of young people who pooh-pooh the move toward more self-sufficient living and environmentally sustainable practices who see these ideals as old-fashioned and

repressive?

AB: I don't know if you can categorize all young people that way because a lot of young people come to

us to see how we do things. In fact, that's part of the main solution to the problems that lie ahead:

Changing the attitudes of youth, looking at the ways we educate our children. What needs to happen

now is that the grownups need to catch up to some of the ideas that the kids have about how things

should be. We can live on a planet that has a carbon balance so we're not increasing global warming.

We can live on a planet that has a resource balance so we're not emptying the seas of fish and the soils

of nutrients. I think the kids have an intuitive understanding of this, and we just need to be able to

follow that intuition and help them do what they're going to need to do.

DB: Do you think it's possible for our current global economy and transportation system to survive in

the face of oil depletion? Or is it inevitable that these systems will collapse and everyone will be forced

to start over? How do you see this whole oil depletion situation panning out? What kind of scenario

might we see, and when do you think it might start?

AB: It's very difficult to predict how this will all unfold because so little is know about what the actual

resource in the ground is or how soon or how easily it can be brought to market. I see four possible

scenarios. Plan A is business as usual, and to some extent that involves a global strategy of last one

standing, the idea being that we will just dominate the world and take over whatever resources we need

to feed ourselves. I don't think that's viable. That's not going to last. Plan B is something you might hear

from Al Gore or Amory Lovins or some of the advocates of green technology. I think Lester Brown is a

good example of that. That you have technologies that will come along and enable us to maintain our

lifestyle with very little change. I don't think that's very realistic either because that still assumes this

exponential growth, which is never sustainable. So then Plan C is more like the Amish. It's curtailment.

It's living more simply, using less resources. Plan D is what we're trying to avoid that's the die-off. It's

nuclear war. It's the idea that James Loveluck propounds that the world is getting so hot in such a short

amount of time that we'll soon become warring tribes fighting over the last habitable areas of the arctic.


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I don't foresee that either. I categorize myself as somewhere between Plan B and Plan C. I see us finding

elegant ways to simplify, reduce our consumption and scale down.

s) From article Our World is Finite: Is This a Problem by Gail the Actuary on April 30, 2007 at The Oil

Drum website (at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2510 ) (Discussion Questions 1-7 at the end of the

article)

Discussion Questions

1. What are five things that might improve after world oil production begins to decline? (Hint: Consider

exercise, weight problems, family situations, etc.)

2. If there is a decline in oil and gas production, how do you expect the large amount of debt

outstanding to resolve itself? Do you think there will be monetary collapse, hyper-inflation, or some

other solution?

3. Do you expect that families will have more or fewer children after oil and natural gas productionbegin to decline? Why?

4. How can businesses prepare for interruptions in electrical service?

5. What types of buildings are best adapted to frequent outages of electrical service? Which buildings

are likely to have the most problems?

6. What vocations appear to be most likely to be useful for supporting a family, after oil and gas

production begin to decline?

7. What changes might a college make to its curriculum, to better prepare students for the changingworld situation expected after production of oil and natural gas begin to decline?

t) From article Can We Be Happy Using Less Energy? Uhhh.... YES! Posted by Nate Hagens on June

21, 2007 at www.theoildrum.com (see http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2671 )

In discussions about the impacts of Peak Oil, it is sometimes implicitly assumed that we NEED to

replace the energy lost from the coming liquid fuels decline with other energy sources in order to

maintain our way of life and our happiness. Indeed, it seems that much of the current effort is focused

on comparing/discovering the best energy alternatives with respect to EROI, environmental impact and

scalability/timing. In addition, demand experts also look at efficiency, carpooling, 4 day workweek, living

locally type solutions, etc. In this post, I look at Peak Oil from a broader context: the necessity and

purpose of continued increases in demand for energy..

In an initial exercise towards some longer term research, I looked at data of subjective well-being from a

large multinational study done bywww.worldvaluessurvey.org. This study, done in 4 waves over the last

15 years, measured dozens of demographic indicator variables, one of which was subjective well-being.

Below is one of their better known graphs showing the relationship between GNP per capita and % of

population in each country that is `satisfied' or `happy' with their lives.
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It can be seen, that at low levels of GNP, happiness is lacking, but once a certain level of GNP is

reached, incremental income per capita adds very little to subjective well being.

Since GNP and energy use are correlated, I was curious what the link would be between happiness and

per capita energy use. Using the `very happy' percentage from the 1999/2000 wave of international

tests from World Values Survey, I compared them to all countries that www.bp.comhad primary energy

data for (primary energy is a broader measure than just oil) and then divided by 2000 population census.

The results are in this graph:
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As can be seen, there is little correlation at all between subjective well being and energy use. (The

actual r2 is 14%). Of note is the United States uses 39 times the primary energy as the Phillipines yet the

percentage of the population that is `very happy' is about equal. While there is a low r2

, this does notmean there is not a relationship. The graph shows that all high energy users are happy. But it also shows

you don't need high energy to be happy.

[Additional Note: EROEI and The Second Law of Thermodynamics

In physics, energy economics and ecological energetics, EROEI (energy returned on energy invested),

ERoEI, or EROI (energy return on investment), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from

a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource.

The second law of thermodynamics efficiency is often defined as follows: the efficiency is equal to the

ratio of the least available work that could have done the job to the actual available work used to do the

job.]

u) From A View from Oils Peak, entry #184 posted on August 1, 2007 in the Museletter section of

Richard Heinbergs website (currently accessible at his wordpress webpage

http://heinberg.wordpress.com/2007/08/01/184-the-view-from-oil%E2%80%99s-peak/ ) (from the last
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/energy_capita_very_happy.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energeticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratiohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energyhttp://heinberg.wordpress.com/2007/08/01/184-the-view-from-oil%E2%80%99s-peak/http://heinberg.wordpress.com/2007/08/01/184-the-view-from-oil%E2%80%99s-peak/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratiohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energeticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physicshttp://www.theoildrum.com/files/energy_capita_very_happy.pnghttp://www.theoildrum.com/files/energy_capita_very_happy.png


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five paragraphs in the section 2. What might happen in the next decades absent policies to address

Peak Oil?and from the concluding paragraph) (confirmed August 28, 2011)

The global transport system is almost entirely dependent on oilnot just private passenger

automobiles, but trucks, ships, diesel locomotives, and the entire passenger and freight airline industry.

High fuel prices will thus impact entire economies as travel becomes more expensive and manufacturers

and retailers are forced to absorb higher transport costs.

Conventional industrial agriculture is also overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels. Artificial

ammonia-based nitrogenous fertilizers use natural gas as a raw material; modern farm machinery runs

on petroleum products; and oil provides the feedstock for making cheap pesticides. According to one

study, approximately ten calories of fossil fuel energy are needed to produce each calorie of food energy

in modern industrial agriculture. With the global proliferation of the industrial-chemical agriculture

system, the products of that system are now also traded globally, enabling regions to host human

populations larger than local resources alone could support. Those systems of global distribution and

trade also rely on oil. Within the US, the mean distance for food transport is now estimated at 1,546

miles. High fuel prices and fuel shortages will therefore translate to higher food prices and could even

cause food shortages.

A small but crucial portion of oil consumed globally goes into the making of plastics and chemicals.

Some of the more common petrochemical building blocks of our industrial world are ethylene,

propylene, and butadiene. Further processing of just these three chemicals produces products as

common, diverse, and important as disinfectants, solvents, antifreezes, coolants, lubricants, heat

transfer fluids, and of course plastics, which are used in everything from building construction materials

to packaging, clothing, and toys. Future oil supply problems will affect the entire chain of industrial

products that incorporate petrochemicals.

Economic impacts to transport, trade, manufacturing, and agriculture will in turn lead to internal social

tensions within importing countries. In exporting countries the increasing value of remaining oil reserveswill exacerbate rivalries between political factions vying to control this source of wealth. Also, increased

competition between consuming nations for control of export flows, and between importing nations

and exporters over contracts and pipelines, may lead to international conflict.

None of these impacts is likely to be transitory. The crisis of Peak Oil will not be solved in days, weeks,

or even years. Decades will be required to re-engineer modern economies to function with a perpetually

declining supply of oil..

.The human communitys central task for the coming decades must be the undoing of its dependence

on oil, coal, and natural gas in order to deal with the twin crises of resource depletion and climate chaos.

It is surely fair to say that fossil fuel dependency constitutes a systemic problem of a kind and scale that

no society has ever had to address before. If we are to deal with this challenge successfully, we must

engage in systemic thinking that leads to sustained, bold action.

v) From article How To Get A Pipeline Built Posted by Jerome a Paris on August 29, 2007 at The Oil

Drum: Europe website (at http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2918 )

(from paragraphs 5 and 6)
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(taking the example of providing a pipeline for natural gas.)

the components of a pipeline:

A supply of gas

A supplier of gas

A market for gas

A purchaser of gas

An entity operating the pipeline

Government authorisations for pipelines crossing their territory -for each country

A price for gas transport

An entity (or more) building the pipeline

An entity (or more) paying the pipeline

The fundamental point is that all of the relevant components and parties need to be present at the

exact same time for the project to exist. And by "being present", I mean "irrevocably making binding

commitments, representing large sums of money." And it is a surprisingly difficult job to bring all theparties to the table in that way at the right moment - which is why fewer pipelines than one would

expect are built, and why few entities are actually able to pull it off. And, as we will see, being able to

pay for the pipeline is not quite enough.


Let's take a look again at the criteria for attractiveness:

The resource base

Enough gas must be available from the production area to fill up the pipeline. Filling it up means using

up the capacity for at least 20 years. A 10 bcm/y (billion cubic meters per year - 10 bcm/y is almost equalto 1 mmcfd - one million cubic feet per day) pipeline will thus require a resource of at least 200 bcm (or

7 Tcf - trillion cubic feet) that needs to be transported.

This is not a trivial issue: many gas fields are called "stranded reserves" because they are not big

enough (or too far away) to justify economically the construction of a pipeline to bring them to market.

The need for transport capacity

The gas resource must not have any other existing or obviously cheaper transport alternatives to be

brought to market..

Basic economics look acceptable

.This will come from a combination of the price of gas (production costs plus taxes) and the distance it

needs to be transported, compared to the expected price on the destination market - which itself

depends on whether the pipeline connects to a liquid market/network, to a single client or to other

transport facilities (LNG terminal, more pipeline transit) which impose additional costs before the gas is

actually sold.
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What's needed at that point is an entity able to drive the project to fruition. Such an entity has to have

a direct interest in getting the project done (any of the above can play that role), but it needs something

more, which is a lot rarer, and which explains why so many pipeline projects don't become reality: that

entity needs tobe able to credibly convince others that the project will happen and thus that they can

actually make their own commitment to it in the certainty that it's not one-sided. In other words, thatentity needs to be an acceptable counterparty to all the other participants to the project - all those

listed above.

That argument is enough to kill the notion that "China has billions of dollars, it can pay to build a

pipeline (from Turkmenistan or elsewhere)". Money is not enough. China cannot credibly convince the

Turkmens that it will pay for the gas even if Kazakhstan blocks transit for some reason. It cannot credibly

promise to the Kazakhs that it will pay the transit fees even if gas is not delivered. Because the amount

at stake is not just the cost of the pipeline, it's potentially the value of gas sales over 20 years. And, more

importantly, the Chinese themselves cannot trust the Turkmens to deliver the gas even if they have built

the pipeline.

(from last two paragraphs)

Thus, as long as one of the big Chinese energy companies is not willing to say "I'll buy x bcm/y of gas at

market prices (whatever the domestic price)", no gas pipeline will be built to China. And, as long as

domestic gas prices are constrained by both price gaps and the competition from cheap coal, no

commitment of the sort will be made (nor should be). As long as Pakistan is not seen as an acceptable

credit risk for several billion dollars worth of gas per year, no pipeline will arrive to that country from

Iran, Turkmenistan or anywhere else. And, as long as Nabucco supporters cannot credibly say where

they intend to buy the gas needed to fill that pipeline, it just won't get built. No pipeline will cross the

Caspian for as long as the existing pipeline going to Russia is not full. And Gazprom will continue to

succeed in building its export pipelines underpinned by existing or future exports until Western buyershave doubts that the Russian giant no longer has the reserves to actually fill these pipelines.

As a final comment, let me note here briefly that LNG is fundamentally similar to pipelines in that

respect. Replace the image of a pipeline by that of a liquefaction terminal, a dedicated tanker fleet, and

a regasification terminal, and the exact same requirements apply. If anything, LNG contracts bind buyers

and sellers even more tightly because the export infrastructure and the import infrastructure must be

available at the same time, and the commitments to invest billions have to come from both sides - one is

not enough on its own. Thus the dominance of Western oil majors in that business, as they are the only

ones which can manage investments in both producing and consuming countries, and have the

discipline and management depth to push these projects forward on all fronts at the same time.

w) From preconference (September, 2007) borchure for a Teach In: Confronting the Global Triple

CrisesClimate Change, Peak Oil (The End of Cheap Energy), and Global Resource Depletion and

Extinction (September 14-17, 2007 at The George Washington University Lisner Auditorium in

Washington D.C.) Sponsored by The International Forum on Globalization (www.ifg.org) and The

Institute on Policy Studies (preconference brochure at

http://www.ifg.org/events/Triple_Crisis_Speakers.pdf) (see p. 2)(confirmed August 28, 2011)
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The planets ecological systems are on the verge of catastrophic change for which few societies are

prepared. So far, responses by governments to this emergency are inadequate, or counterproductive.

We call it the Triple Crisis, the convergence of three advancing conditions:

1) Planet-wide climate chaos and global warming

2) The end of the era of cheap energy (peak oil)

3) The depletion of many of the worlds key resources: water, timber, fish, fertile soil, coral reefs; and

the expected extinction of 50% of the worlds species.

All are rooted in the same systemic problemmassive overuse of fossil fuels and the Earths resources;

all driven by an economic ideology of hyper growth and consumption thats beyond the limits of the

planet to sustain.

x) From the introduction to Peak Everything: Waking Up to a Century of Declines by Richard

Heinberg New Society Publishers October, 2007

(from page 2)

as one contemplates how we humans have so quickly become so deeply dependent on the cheap,

concentrated energy of oil and other fossil fuels, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we have

caught ourselves on the horns of the Universal Ecological Dilemma, consisting of interlinked elements of

population pressure, resource depletion, and habitat destructionon a scale unprecedented in history.

(and from a Publishers Weekly review of Peak Everything, at the amazon.com webpage for the

book-- http://www.amazon.com/Peak-Everything-Century-Declines-Publishers/dp/086571598X)

Although Heinberg attempts to inject some optimism, the intersection of peak oil and climate change-not to mention overpopulation, water scarcity, a clueless ruling class and a citizenry largely unaware of

the problem's magnitude-is not a hopeful vantage point, and readers may not want to tackle this

downer without other works on deck to provide plans for action.

y) From Special Order speech on floor of House of Representatives February 28, 2008 by Rep. Roscoe

Bartlett (R-MD) Transcript at http://www.xecu.net/thorn/PO/PO-Feb28-2008.html [the xecu.net link

also provides a listing of links to special order speeches on peak oil and energy by Rep Bartlettfrom

March 14, 2005 to July 17, 2008 (35 different special order speeches) (see

http://www.xecu.net/thorn/PO/ ) (confirmed August 28, 2011)

Mr. BARTLETT of Maryland. Mr. Speaker, I believe that this is the 38th time that I've come to the floor

to talk to my colleagues and, through the miracle of television, to the American people about a

phenomenon that is becoming more and more apparent and more and more important to us.

This phenomenon is what we call peak oil. When I first started talking about this, I wasn't even sure

what we were going to call it, the great rollover at that point in time when we've reached our maximum

production to produce oil and we're rolling over to slip down the other side of that slope, or peak oil.

We decided to call it peak oil, and now that is a pretty well-known terminology around the world.
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.And America doesn't seem to be responding. I asked one of my colleagues why, and he said, well, it's

a problem of addiction. We're addicted to oil. The President appropriately said that in one of his State of

the Union messages. He said, when you're addicted, what it costs really doesn't matter. If you're

addicted to alcohol or cocaine, if it costs you your marriage, your job, your house, meeting the demands

of the addiction is the important thing.

.That's the amount of energy that we get from these fossil fuels. One barrel of oil has the energy

equivalent of 12 people working all year, 25,000 man hours of effort. When I first saw that, I thought

that can't be true. Just 42 gallons of oil and has the energy equivalent of 12 people working all year? And

then I thought about my Prius car and how far that gallon of gasoline, still cheaper than water in the

grocery store if you buy it in the little bottles, how far that takes my Prius, 47 miles averaging now over

the last 15,000, 20,000 miles.

Now, I could pull my Prius 47 miles, but it would take me quite a while with come-a-longs and using the

guard rail and trees and so forth to pull my Prius 70 miles. So I thought maybe that is true. And that is

true, that each barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of 12 people working all year. So our use of

this fossil fuel energy has produced for us an incredible quality of life..

.Here we are with 2 percent of the oil in the world, and the yellow indicates that we use a whole lot.

Why, we are the only yellow one in the world, aren't we? We have 2 percent of the oil. We use 25

percent of the world's oil. This is a shocking picture.

The next chart shows the concerns of some of our leading thought people in our country on the

implications of this for national security. Jim Woolsey, McFarland, and Boyden Gray and 27 other

prominent Americans, several Four Star retired admirals and generals among them, about 3 years ago

wrote a letter to the President saying, Mr. President, the fact that we have only 2 percent of the world's

reserves of oil and we consume 25 percent of the world's oil and import almost two-thirds of what we

use is a totally unacceptable national security exposure. We really have to do something about that.The President mentioned that in his State of the Union that we were addicted to oil, much of it coming

from people, as he said, that don't even like us very much. And we really need to do something about

that. Tragically, we have not done much about that..

.With some confidence, I can tell you that the age of oil out of 8,000 years of recorded history will

occupy about 300 years. As Hyman Rickover noted, this is but a blip in the long history of man. He said,

``Fossil fuels resemble capital in the bank. A prudent and responsible parent will use this capital

sparingly in order to pass on to his children as much as possible of his inheritance. A selfish and

irresponsible parent will squander it in riotous living and care not one whit how his offspring will fare.'' I

have 10 kids, 16 grandkids, and two great grandkids. I am really concerned about their future relative to

energy.

Do you know what we should have done when we found this incredible wealth under the ground, a

barrel of which equaled the work output of 12 people working all year? We should have stopped to ask

ourselves, what can we do with this to provide the most good for the most people for the longest time?

That clearly is not what we did. With no more responsibility than the kids who found the cookie jar or

the hog who found the feed room door open, we have just been pigging out..


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.What we need, and I will close with this brief statement, what we need is a program that has a

total commitment of World War II, the technology focus of putting a man on the Moon, and the

urgency of the Manhattan Project. We are the most creative, innovative society in the world. We

are up to the challenge. We need leadership. We can do it.

z) From the updated and current Peak Oil Primer at the Energy Bulletin website (see

http://energybulletin.net/primer.php First Peak Oil Primer at the Energy Bulletin was last updated

February 24, 2008. Thus, an estimated beginning date for this updated and reposted Peak Oil Primer

might be March, 2008. [Note: Since 2004, Energy Bulletin has served as a clearinghouse for

information regarding sustainability, resource depletion and the peak in global energy supply. Its online

archives contain several thousand articles available to the public. On January 14, 2009, Energy Bulletin

was adopted as a core program by the Post Carbon Institute ] (from paragraphs 3, 5, 6, 10, 19and

from first paragraph in What Can Be Done? section)

In the 1950s the well known U.S. geologist M. King Hubbert was working for Shell Oil. He noted that oil

discoveries graphed over time tended to follow a bell shape curve. He supposed that the rate of oil

production would follow a similar curve, now known as the Hubbert Curve (see figure). In 1956 Hubbertpredicted that production from the US lower 48 states would peak between 1965 and 1970.As it

happens, the US lower 48 oil production did peak in 1970/1..

.In retrospect, the U.S. oil peak might be seen as the most significant geopolitical event of the mid to

late 20th Century, creating the conditions for the energy crises of the 1970s, leading to far greater U.S.

strategic emphasis on controlling foreign sources of oil, and spelling the beginning of the end of the

status of the U.S. as the world's major creditor nation. The U.S. of course, was able to import oil from

elsewhere. Mounting debt has allowed life to continue in the U.S. with only minimal interruption so far.

When global oil production peaks, the implications will be felt far more widely, and with much more

force.

Our industrial societies

Draft Critical Challenges Section #3 Peak Oil

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Transcript of Draft Critical Challenges Section #3 Peak Oil