DRAFT 10-20-04 1 What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? Public Forum on Alternative...

DRAFT 10-20-04

1

What If… The Washington Region

Grew Differently?

Public Forum on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios

National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board

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Study of “What If” Scenarios

What if job and housing growth were

shifted? What if new roads or transit were built?

How would 2030 travel conditions

change?

Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.”

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Presentation Outline

Historical and Forecast Trends “What If” Scenarios: A Building Block

ApproachAlternative Land Use ScenariosWhat Do the Scenarios Tell Us?Next Study Phase

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Historical and Forecast Trends

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The Washington Region Approximately 3,000

square miles

Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs

The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the region

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Growth 1970 - 2000

50%

87%

Population

Employment

Employment is Growing Faster than Population

Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030

36%

48%

Population

Employment

1970: 3 Million 2000: 4.5 Million

1970: 1.5 Million 2000: 2.8 Million



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Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030

37%

16%

Daily VehicleMiles Traveled

Freeway andArterial Lane

Miles

The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace

2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million

2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles

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Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for Maintenance

Little money is available for new transportation projects

23%

77%

New Roads and Transit

Operations & Preservation

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Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and GoEvening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030

2 0 3 02 0 3 0Based on the 2003 CLRPBased on the 2003 CLRP

Congested Flow Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph)(Average Speed 30 to 50 mph)

Stop and Go Conditions Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph)(Average Speed < 30 mph)

2000 2030

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Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be Packed

Morning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030

Congested

Highly Congested2000 2030

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Looking at “What If” Scenarios:

A Building Block Approach

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What if current plans don’t change?

Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth

Forecasts

Regional Transportation Plan - Projects with anticipated funding

Current Growth Forecasts - Jobs and households

1

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20%

52%

22%

Daily VehicleMiles of Travel

Miles of AMCongestion

Transit Trips

How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?

Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts

2010: 125 Million 2030: 150 Million

2010: 1,700 Miles 2030: 2,600 Miles

2010: 1 Million 2030: 1.3 Million

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What if the capacity of the current transit system was maximized?


Forecasts

“Enhanced Transit” Scenario

Longer trains, station improvements, expanded bus service, and more commuter trains to accommodate projected demand

1

2

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20%

52%

22%

19%

49%

32%



Transit Trips

How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?


Current Plan

Enhanced Transit2010: 125 Million

2010: 1 Million

2010: 1,700 Miles

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What if land use patterns also changed?


Forecasts


1

2

3Alternative Land Use Scenarios

3

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What are some of the key issues the land use scenarios might address?

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Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania

Forecast Job

GrowthForecast

Household Growth

Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs

Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands)

Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

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What if more people who worked here lived here?

VA

WV

Balt.Scenario #1:

“More Households” Increase household

growth to balance forecast job growth

Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters”

Regional Activity ClusterIncrease household growth by 200,000


More Households



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19%

49%

32%

18%

43%

48%



Transit Trips

Baseline (Enhanced Transit)

More Households

2010: 125 Million

2010: 1 Million

2010: 1,700 Miles

Scenario #1: “More Households” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?

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18%



More Households

2010: 125 Million

Scenario #1: “More Households”

Even with 200,000 more households, daily vehicle miles of

travel would go down.

Plus…

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Scenario #1: More Households” Under Scenario #1, the average person would drive two miles less per day.

3%

-6%

Scenario #1


Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Person

2010: 23.4 miles/ person

2030 Baseline: 24.2 miles/ person

2030 Scenario #1: 22.1 miles/ person

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Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs

Inner jurisdictions – most job growth

Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth

Average commute – more than 30 minutes

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What if people lived closer to their jobs?

Regional Activity ClusterShift 84,000 households

Scenario #2A:

“Households In” Shift household growth

to inner jurisdictions (to get people closer to jobs)

Households In



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19%

49%

32%

19%

39%

36%



Transit Trips


Households In

2010: 125 Million

2010: 1 Million

2010: 1,700 Miles

Scenario #2A: “Households In” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?

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49%

39%


Scenario 2A: “Households In” This scenario would have the biggest impact on morning congestion.


Households In

2010: 1,700 Miles

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What if jobs were located closer to where

people live?

Regional Activity ClusterShift 82,000 jobs

Scenario #2B:

“Jobs Out” Shift job growth to outer

jurisdictions (to get jobs closer to new housing)

Jobs Out



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19%

49%

32%

19%

25%

45%



Transit Trips

Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?


Jobs Out

2010: 125 Million

2010: 1 Million

2010: 1,700 Miles

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32%

25%Transit Trips

Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” Transit use would not grow as quickly.(Not enough transit service in outer jurisdictions.)


Jobs Out

2010: 1 Million

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49%

45%


Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” But the scenario still would slow the growth of congestion.


Jobs Out

2010: 1,700 Miles

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20%

1%

West East

Issue #3: East-West Divide

Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000

A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western

parts of the region

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Issue #3: East-West DivideWest-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour

Average Commute Time

Morning Rush Hour

Up to 30 minutes

Up to 40 minutes

Over 40 minutes

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What if there were more development on the

eastern side of the region?

Regional Activity ClusterShift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs

Scenario #3: “Region Undivided” Shift job and household

growth from West to East

Region Undivided



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19%

49%

32%

18%

47%

38%



Transit Trips

Scenario #3: “Region Undivided” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?

Baseline (Enhanced Transit)Region Undivided

2010: 125 Million

2010: 1 Million

2010: 1,700 Miles

The trends are encouraging.

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Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas

HouseholdGrowth2010 to2030

Inside Transit Station Areas

Outside Transit Station Areas

EmploymentGrowth2010 to2030

30%

70%

20%

80%

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What if people lived and worked closer to transit?

Metro Rail

Commuter Rail

Bus

Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs

Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented” Locate job and household

growth around transit stations

Transit Oriented Development



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49%

32%

18%

43%

37%

19%Daily VehicleMiles of Travel


Transit Trips

Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?


Transit Oriented

2010: 125 Million

2010: 1 Million

2010: 1,700 Miles

Again, the trends are encouraging.

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What do these scenarios tell us?

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The scenarios show some favorable trends.

Transit trips would increase.

The growth in morning

congestion would be slowed.

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Why aren’t the impacts

greater?

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Most jobs and housing for 2030 are already in place.

Households in 2000

Growth

by 2010

Growth

by 2030

Affected by scenarios

2030 Households

72%

13%

15%

Underway or in the pipeline

Already in place

(Of course, some of this might be rezoned or redeveloped in the future…)

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Scenario impacts may be small regionally, but large locally.

Before

After

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Significant change takes time.

Courtesy of WMATA

Scenarios only look out to 2030, but impacts may be greatest in 2040, 2050, and beyond

For example, just look at how long it took to get Metro in place . . .

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Is there a way to magnify

the impacts?

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= ?+New

roads, bridges, transit

Future stages of the study will include transportation scenarios…

The impacts might be greater if transportation improvements

were added.For example:

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Impacts might be even greater if we combined scenarios.

For example, what if we combined:• Scenario #3 (Region Undivided) • Scenario #4 (Transit Oriented Development) • and transportation improvements ?

+ = ?Future stages of the study will look at such combinations…

New roads, bridges, transit+

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Next Study Phase

Alternative transportation scenarios New rail lines? New bus routes? New roads? New bridges?

Combining transportation and land use scenarios



Alternative Land Use Scenarios

1

2

3

Alternative Transportation

Scenarios4

5Combining Scenarios

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Discussion Questions

What did you think of the presentation?

What did you think of the scenarios?

What transportation scenarios should be looked at?

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49

For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board:

(202) 962-3200

[email protected]

www.mwcog.org/transportation

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