Dr. Thomas Mayer, Deutsche Bank, London
14
Warum sind die Zinsen so niedrig? Thomas Mayer (+44) 20 7547 2884 April 2005 IMPORTANT: PLEASE SEE CONFLICT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION IMMEDIATELY AT THE END OF THE TEXT OF THIS REPORT. DEUTSCHE BANK DOES AND SEEKS TO DO BUSINESS WITH ISSUERS COVERED IN ITS REPORTS. AS A RESULT INVESTORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT DEUTSCHE BANK MAY HAVE A CONFLICT OF INTEREST THAT COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT THE OBJECTIVITY OF ITS REPORTS. INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER THIS REPORT ONLY AS A SINGLE FACTOR IN MAKING THEIR INVEST-MENT DECISION.
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Transcript of Dr. Thomas Mayer, Deutsche Bank, London
Warum sind die Zinsen so niedrig?Thomas Mayer(+44) 20 7547 2884
April 2005
IMPORTANT: PLEASE SEE CONFLICT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION IMMEDIATELY AT THE END OF THE TEXT OF THIS REPORT. DEUTSCHE BANK DOES AND SEEKS TO DO BUSINESS WITH ISSUERS COVERED IN ITS REPORTS. AS A RESULT INVESTORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT DEUTSCHE BANK MAY HAVE A CONFLICT OF INTEREST THAT COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT THE OBJECTIVITY OF ITS REPORTS. INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER THIS REPORT ONLY AS A SINGLE FACTOR IN MAKING THEIR INVEST-MENT DECISION.
Übersicht
“Emerging markets” wandeln sich ab 1998 von internationalen Kapitalimporteuren zu Kapitalexporteuren
Investitionseinbruch von 2002 reduziert die internationale Kapital-nachfrage der Industrieländer
Ex-ante internationales Überschussangebot an Ersparnis schürt Deflationsängste und drückt Leit- und Marktzinsen
Sinkende Zinsen treiben Immobilienpreise und stimulieren den Konsum
Im Markt verbleibende Überschussliquidität und “moral hazard” verzögern die Zinsanpassung an den weltweiten Konjunktur-aufschwung
2
Emerging markets treten als Exporteure von Ersparnis auf
Changes in current account balances (2004-95/97)bn USD 2004 1995-97 changeUnited States -631.3 -119.5 -511.8Japan 159.4 91.2 68.2Euro area 72.2 76.0 -3.8United Kingdom -43.3 -8.9 -34.4C.&E. Europe -44.2 -15.4 -28.8CIS 61.4 -2.0 63.4Middle East 103.5 6.3 97.2Western Hemisphere 9.0 -48.3 57.3NIC Asia 85.0 2.1 82.9Developing Asia 68.8 -23.2 92.0Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
USDbn
current account balance
Leistungsbilanz
3
Emerging markets
Emerging markets treten als Exporteure von Ersparnis auf
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
s aving
inves tm ent
% o f GD P
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
Spar- und Investitionsquoten
4
Changes in savings and investment ratios (2004-95/97)Saving Investment S-I
United States -2.7 0.4 -3.1Japan -3.0 -4.5 1.5Euro area -0.7 -0.7 0.0United Kingdom -1.4 -0.1 -1.3C.&E. Europe -1.2 -0.5 -0.7CIS 6.1 -2.2 8.4Middle East 4.9 0.0 4.9Western Hemisphere 1.9 -1.6 3.4NIC Asia -2.1 -8.1 6.0Developing Asia 4.7 1.6 3.1Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Data Base
Emerging markets
Kurz darauf brechen die Investitionen in den Industrie-ländern ein
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
18
19
20
21
22
23
em erg ing m arke ts s aving (lhs )
indus tria l country inves tm ent
% o f GD P
% of GD P
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 200521.5
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
US real 10y bond y ields (lhs)
W orld investment ratio
% % of GDP
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
Ersparnisse in den Emerging Markets und Investitionen in den Industrieländern
Weltinvestitionsquote und “Weltrealzins”
5
Niedrige Realzinsen treiben Immobilienpreise und Konsumwachstum
OECD 2001-03:
Privater Konsum: 2.2%
Investitionen: 0.3%
BIP: 1.6%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
real private consumption
house prices
% yoy
% yoy
Spain
Australia
Germany
Japan
US
Netherlands
France
New Zealand
Ireland
Italy
Canada
Belgium
Sw eden
DenmarkSw itzerland
UK
Konsum und Immobilienpreise 2003
6
Unterschiedliche Reaktion auf den Zinsrückgang…
7
Source: Haver, DB Global Markets Research
Heimische Nachfrage
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
US
J apan
Euroland
% yoy
…führt zu Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichten
8
US nationale Ersparnis fällt stärker als Investition
Source: OECD, Haver, DB Global Markets Research
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Gross saving
Gross investment
% of GDP
current account balance
Die Unternehmen haben die Niedrigzinsphase zur Stärkung ihrer Bilanzen genutzt
38
43
48
53
58
63
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
75
80
85
90
95
100
Euroland
J apan
US (rhs)
% of GDP
Unternehmensverschuldung in den G3
9
Gute Gewinne und starke Bilanzen stimulieren die Investitionskonjunktur, doch Zinsen bleiben niedrig…
G3: BIP Wachstum, Nachfragekomponenten & Zinsen
-10-8-6-4-202468
10
0.00.5
1.01.5
2.02.5
3.03.5
4.04.5
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
% yoy %
ForecastG3 GDP growth (lhs)
Real 10Y bond yields, G3 average (rhs*)
G3 gross fixed capital formation (lhs)
10
…u.a. wegen hoher Liquiditätsversorgung und geringer Risikosensitivität
11
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Real GDP growth (lhs)
Real money growth (rhs)
% yoy, 2-year moving average
Data for the US, J apan, Canada Euroland and the UK
Source: Haver, DB Global Markets Research
Die Zentralbanken haben den Eindruck vermittelt, dass sie die Anleger von den üblichen Risiken weitgehend entlasten können (“moral hazard”).
Die tatsächlichen liegen unter den theoretischen Renditen
12
DByield: Euroland 10Y rates DByield: US 10Y rates
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Actual 10Y rates
Fitted 10Y rates
Current
DByield trading signal: short
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Actual 10Y rates
Fitted 10Y rates
Current
DByield trading signal: short
Source: DB Global Markets Research Source: DB Global Markets Research
DByield: UK 10Y rates DByield: J apan 10Y rates
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Actual 10Y rates
Fitted 10Y rates
Current
DByield trading signal: short
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Actual 10Y rates
Fitted 10Y rates
Current
DByield trading signal: short
Source: DB Global Markets Research Source: DB Global Markets Research
Ausblick 2005-06: Robustes Wachstum und steigende Zinsen
13
Source: Various statistical offices, DB Global Markets Research
Economic Forecast Summary
GDP growth, % CPI inflation, %
2004 2005F 2006F 2004 2005F 2006F US 4.4 4.1 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.2
J apan 2.6 1.4 2.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 Euroland 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6
G7 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 Asia (ex J apan) 7.9 6.8 6.7 4.4 3.7 3.6
EMEA 6.5 5.1 4.3 8.5 7.4 6.4 Latam 6.1 4.4 3.7 6.8 5.8 6.0
Global 4.9 4.1 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.9
Source: DB Global Markets Research
Interest Rate Forecast Summary
Central bank rate, % 10Y yields, %
Cur-
rent 3M 6M 12M
Cur-
rent 3M 6M 12M
US 2.50 3.25 3.75 4.50 4.51 4.75 5.00 5.50
J apan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.46 1.70 2.10 2.50
Euroland 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.75 3.71 4.00 4.20 4.70
Source: DB Global Markets Research, as of Mar 16
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CERTIFICATIONThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Thomas Mayer.
For disclosures of our potential conflicts pertaining to analyses, recommendations or estimates made in respect of a security or issuer mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published issuer report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://equities.research.db.com/cgi-bin/compose?PAGE=HOMEPAGE.____________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMERThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). The information herein is believed by Deutsche Bank to be reliable, but Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information.
Important Information Regarding Our Independence. The research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report receives compensation that is based upon, among other factors, Deutsche Bank’s overall investment banking and/or trading revenues. Deutsche Bank may engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with this research report, and with respect to securities covered by this report, will sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis. Disclosures of conflicts of interest, if any, are discussed at the end of the text of this report or on the Deutsche Bank website at https://gm.db.com/DisclosureList
Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is withdrawn. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. This report is provided for informational purposes only. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor’s currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from, the financial instrument, and such investor effectively assumes currency risk. In addition, income from an investment may fluctuate and the price or value of financial instruments described in this report, either directly or indirectly, may rise or fall. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor’s home jurisdiction. In the U.S. this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, the NASD, NFA and SIPC. In the United Kingdom this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch, and in Japan by Deutsche Bank AG Tokyo. Additional information relative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without Deutsche Bank’s prior written consent. Please cite source when quoting. Copyright© 2004 Deutsche Bank AG REV102104
