Material Requirements Planning and Enterprise Resource Planning Dr. Ron Lembke.
Dr. Ron Lembke Sustainability. Energy Poor Sub-Sahara Africa, minus South Africa = 47 countries 20...
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Transcript of Dr. Ron Lembke Sustainability. Energy Poor Sub-Sahara Africa, minus South Africa = 47 countries 20...
Energy PoorSub-Sahara Africa,
minus South Africa = 47 countries20 GW of power,
same as the Netherlands
Add as much capacity per year as China two weeks
550m people no network elect.
75% of households
S. Asia700m no access
Netherlands
Stoves
Open fires , stove cooking1.6 million deaths per
yearYoung children and
mothers
Causes of death (WHO):1. Malnutrition2. Unsafe sex3. Clean water and
sanitation4. Biomass cooking
Stovetec.net
No Grid Access – Health and EdCan’t pump clean water
No communicationsKids have to help carry itNo literacy classes for parents
EducationNo communications, computersAll of human knowledge on the Internet, but no
accessGirls walk miles for firewood and waterFinding time for schoolwork 33% higher with elect.
Hey, let’s move to the city!
ImpactsHealth
Run Medical equipment EKG on car batteriesRefrigeration for medicinesEKG machines- 16 car batteriesTelemedicine, remote doctors, but no powerCan’t desalinate water or run a fan
Business56 days of outages for African mfg companiesBackup generators pollute moreCan’t run plants, equipmentCan’t collaborate, send emails,
Straight to Green Energy?Skipped land linesIf all 1.6 million plugged into the grid?
Added 25% MORE to current energy usage?Electrons
AbundantCleanReliableCheap
Solve health, education and energy problems
Creativity20% of the planet not engaged in solving
world’s problemsThey know the problems first hand
Sustainable Rural CommunitiesSell goods directly to the world with
connectivityPeople move to cities for work, crowdingEthakota, Satyam outsourced back office
operationsProcessing magazine subscriptions, phone
servicesEducated employees, went to big cities, came
backHigher quality of lifeLive near extended family, walk to workNever quit these great jobs
10:Green = Red, White, and BlueEventually, we will all pay the true cost of energy
If it causes climate change, pay for remediation, etc.Total Cost of OwnershipWith all costs included, smartest, most efficient,
lowest costVisibility: blogs, internet
Finite Resources:Land, water, animals, air
Design, build export green energy technologiesClean electrons, clean air, healthy abundant foodMajor competitive advantage of nations
We Need Growth“I start from the bedrock principle that we as
a global society need more and more growth, because without it there is no human development and those in poverty will never escape it.” p.226
Abundant, Clean, Reliable, Cheap electrons
Maybe We’re WrongIf Climate Change isn’t true
Weaned off Middle East Oil, petrodictatorsFewer wars over natural resourcesEfficient houses, buildings, carsFree feedstocks for large %Don’t drill in Mother Nature’s cathedralsEnd deforestationGlobally desirable products – leading
If it is true, and we do nothing?
Developing New TechnologiesContinuous Process Improvement!We need huge investments in R&DTILT: Terrific, Imaginary Low-carbon
TechnologyEconomies of scale
Competitive AdvantageMother of all markets – Lois QuamTransformation equivalent to Industrial
RevolutionEverything was different afterTo go green, will make us healthier, stronger,
more secure, more innovative, more competitive, more respected.What could be more patriotic, capitalistic than
that?Develop, innovate, “Chindia price”
American Leadership“America is the country of the Future. It is a
county of beginnings, of projects, of vast designs and expectations.”Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1844
“Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably will not themselves be realized.”Daniel Burnham, architect, 1911
American LeadershipNixon –
Environmental Protection ActEnvironmental Impact Statement
Moral responsibilityGreatest portion of world’s resourcesMore resources for innovationStanding to affect other peopleGiving more people clean power consistent with
expanding freedomSarkozy - Can’t be first on human rights and
last on environmental responsibilities
A Hoax?Global warming, as a man-made and highly
threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration, at worst an utter “hoax.” Over half of House RepublicansThree-quarters of Senate Republicans
“Hoax” James Inhofe, ranking Republican on Senate
Environment and Public Works Committee Source: NYT “Fact-Free Science,” Judith Warner,
1/25/11
Energy EfficiencyAluminum 95% from recycling4% of energy used for light in an
incandescentTon of paper saves 17 trees, uses 50% less
waterMcKinsey: cut energy demand growth by
2020 by half using existing technologies“I don’t want to be the first generation telling
my kids you can’t have life as good as I did.” K.R. Sridhar –Bloom Energy
Family PlanningEducating young women
Better educated, work Earn incomes self & kidsHave fewer childrenMy mom’s cousins
Educate the men9.2 billion by 2050, could be
11.9!
Conservation, Ethics and BalanceEthics can’t be legislated
Norms, values, beliefs, habits, attitudes embraced voluntarily
Consume less, make stuff last longerAnti-capitalist, anticonsumerist wing?We need nature, we need capitalism
We need more growth as a global societyNew habits toward consumption
Rationing electricity? No. Telling you you can’t leave all the lights on all night? Maybe.
Force you to bike to work? No. Force you to put in bike lanes? Maybe.
Congestion pricing
Clean energy won’t solve all our problems, but it’s a great enabler of other changes
Tax incentives, policiesLittle improvements, one generation after
anotherBreakthrough technologies
TILT: Terrific Imaginary Low-carbon Technology
25 years to become 1% of totalHuge market opportunities today speed this
up?
Incentives
RE < CREEFIGDCPEERPC<TTCOBCOG
Renewable Energy Ecosystem For Innovating, Generating and Deploying Clean Power, Energy Efficiency, Resource Productivity and Conservation <
The True Cost Of Burning Coal, Oil, and Gas
Conclusions
EthanolCorn-based: bad idea,
minimal benefitImpact on food prices 2009
CBO repotEthanol 10-15%Oil prices 22-36% all-time
highRising global demand for
meatWeaker dollar increased corn
exportsConcerns about weather
causing poor crop http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10057/04-08-Ethanol.pdf
Ethanol Gallons of Fuel/AcreFirst Generation:
Corn 400 Sugarcane 650
Second Generation (cellulistic)Switchgrass 1,000 Miscanthus 1,250
Third GenerationAlgae 5,000
Carbon CaptureNatural Gas safely trapped underground
Why not CO2?Ship it in pipelinesFind good locations, monitor it forever
Capturing the Carbon costs energyBurn more coal to pay for the costBut we could burn as much as we wanted?Only captures CO2, not other GHGsCommercial scale just starting
Solar ThermalParabolic mirrors,
fluid in tubes in middleExpensive mirrors
Power Tower – flat mirrors aimed at big towerCheap mirrors, big towerCoyote Springs 74,000 gallons per MW of capacity
Heat can be stored in molten salt for hoursGenerate some power even when sun not
shiningWater issues to clean mirrors,