Dr. Robert Geller - A seismologist looks at nuclear power plant safety issues in Japan
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Transcript of Dr. Robert Geller - A seismologist looks at nuclear power plant safety issues in Japan
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7/27/2019 Dr. Robert Geller - A seismologist looks at nuclear power plant safety issues in Japan
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A seismologist looks at nuclear
power plant safety issues inJapan
Robert J. Geller (Univ. of Tokyo)
Joint Meeting of the U.S.-Japan Roundtable andthe Forum on Energy Editorial Board
October 24, 2013
Washington, DC
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Robert J. Geller
C.V. US citizen; permanent resident of Japan
B.S. (1973, Geophysics), Ph.D. (1977) from Caltech
First tenured non-Japanese faculty member at Univ.
of Tokyo (Assoc. Prof., 1984-99; Prof., 1999-)
Research interests
seismic wave propagation, Earth structure,
earthquake sources
predictability/non-predictability of earthquakes
policy-related issues (seismic/tsunami risks of NPPs)
Refereed publications
http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009 2
http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009 -
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The big picture
March 2011
Tohoku earthquake (M9)
Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident
October 2013 (31 months later)
Only 2 (of 50) NPPs operating*
*But both now shut down for routine maintenance
New Japan NRA (Nuclear Regulation Agency)
dysfunctional
No progress towards resolving key issues
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What should be done?
Change framework to risk assessment Nothing in life is 100.00000% safe
Learn from failure (Fukushima Dai-Ichi)
Tsunami countermeasures were insufficient
Learn from success (Onagawa) Earthquake-resistance of NPPs was strong;
Tsunami countermeasures were successful
Reform NRA
Adopt regulatory practices from abroad
Use probabilistic approach, not deterministic4
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The new minister of industry
just said (in a TV interview)
that he wouldnt approve
restarting NPPs until the
experts certify safety.
Experts should be tasked
with assessing the risks and
uncertainties. The publicand political leaders should
make the final decision.
Dec. 30, 2012
@rjgeller
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Photos: P. Yanev
Refineries, other plants, and storage tanks on landfill are at risk!
Risk of liquefaction, fires, spills, and plant failures
Risk of dependence on imports of oil and gas
Non-nuclear risks cant be neglected!
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NRA natural hazard standards
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Earthquakeground motion
Tsunamis(especially on
Sea of Japan coast)
Active Faults
A more balanced approach is needed!
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The tsunami riskto NPPs on the
Sea of Japan
coast must not
be overlooked!Manju eratsunami
(1026)
Figure: V. Gusiakov
Genkai NPP
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Genkai NPP (Saga Prefecture)
July 16, 2011
Could the Genkai NPP withstand a tsunami
similar to that in 1993 at Okushiri Island? 9
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Earthquake hazard maps
The good news:
We have methods for making seismic hazard
maps
The bad news:
These methods havent been verified
The worse news:
The hazard maps dont agree with the data
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Base map (Japanese
govt. hazard map) vs.actual seismicity
since 1979
Regions rated as
especially hazardous
have been quiet
Regions with damaging
quakes (1995 Kobe,2011 Tohoku, etc.)
were not rated as at
high hazard level
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Geller, 2011
(Nature)
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Need for improved
communication Recent progress in earth science
We know more about natural hazards
We also know more about the uncertainties of
our knowledge
Poor information flow in Japan
Nuclear industry needs better communication
with top-class geoscience researchers
Japan NRA actions should reflect recent
research
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Where do we go from here?
My suggestions
Partial Restart of NPPs
Rank NPPs asA, B, or C rankA Rank: Restart now
B Rank: Restart after safety upgrade
C Rank : Decommission
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Adopt a unified energy policy
Conservation
Renewable energy
Restart NPPs after appropriate checks Transparent procedures
Restore public confidence
Unify 50 Hz (Kanto) and 60 H (Kansai)
power generation to a single national
standard
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Political Problems in Japan
Paralysis of decision-making under previous DPJ
government
Reluctance to take political responsibility by present LDP
government
Inability of power companies and industry groups to
make a fresh start that will convince the public
Teething problems of NRA
Must escape safe/unsafe dichotomy Decision-making must be based on
quantitative risk assessment
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Thank you for your attention
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