Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik MBBS, MPH, MCPS (Com...

Dr. Muhammad Razzaq MalikDr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

Dr. Muhammad Razzaq MalikDr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik MBBS, MPH, MCPS (Com Med)MBBS, MPH, MCPS (Com Med)

Assistant ProfessorAssistant Professor Department of Community MedicineDepartment of Community Medicine

Sheikh Zayed Medical College Sheikh Zayed Medical College

Rahim Yar KhanRahim Yar Khan


DEMOGRAPHYDEMOGRAPHY

It is the It is the scientific studyscientific study of human of human population concerning their size, population concerning their size, distribution, structure and changes within distribution, structure and changes within them.them.


Demographic processesDemographic processes

It includes 5 processes e.g. It includes 5 processes e.g. marriage, marriage, fertility, mortality, fertility, mortality, migration & social migration & social mobility.mobility.


SIZE:SIZE: Refers to the number of persons in the population Refers to the number of persons in the population

at a given time. (growth, decline).at a given time. (growth, decline). DISTRIBUTION:DISTRIBUTION:

Refers to the arrangement of the population in Refers to the arrangement of the population in space at a given time.space at a given time.

STRUCTURE:STRUCTURE: Is the distribution of the population among its sex Is the distribution of the population among its sex

and age groupingsand age groupings



CHANGES occur due to growth or CHANGES occur due to growth or decline of the total population decline of the total population resulting from births, deaths, and in- resulting from births, deaths, and in- or out migration.or out migration.


POPULATION STUDYPOPULATION STUDY

Population studies are not only Population studies are not only concerned with demographic concerned with demographic variables (births, deaths and variables (births, deaths and migration) but also with relationships migration) but also with relationships between population changes and between population changes and other variables- social, economic, other variables- social, economic, political, biological, genetic, political, biological, genetic, geographical, environment, health geographical, environment, health and alikeand alike..


DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLEDEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE

1. 1. High stationary:High stationary: ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ Birth rate= ↑↑↑ Death rateBirth rate= ↑↑↑ Death rate

2. 2. Early expandingEarly expanding:: ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ Birth rate= ↑↑ Death rateBirth rate= ↑↑ Death rate

3. 3. Late expandingLate expanding:: ↑↑ ↑↑ Birth rate= ↑ Death rateBirth rate= ↑ Death rate

4. 4. Low stationaryLow stationary:: ↑ ↑ Birth rate= ↑ Death rateBirth rate= ↑ Death rate

5. 5. Declining:Declining: ↑ ↑ Birth rate= ↑↑ Death rateBirth rate= ↑↑ Death rate


WORLD POPULATIONWORLD POPULATION

007 AD007 AD 250 millions250 millions 18001800 1000 millions 1000 millions (1800 years)(1800 years)

18501850 1030 M1030 M 19001900 1650 M1650 M 19301930 2000 M2000 M 19601960 3000 M3000 M 19751975 4000 M4000 M (175 years)(175 years) 19871987 5000 M5000 M 19991999 6000 M6000 M 20252025 8000 M8000 M


POPULATION OF WORLDPOPULATION OF WORLD

Most populous countries of the world

china, 21.08%

india, 16.87%

USA, 4.63%

indonesia, 3.49%

brazil, 2.80%

pakistan, 2.58%Russian fed, 2.42%

bangladesh, 2.13%

japan, 2.09%

nigeria, 1.84%

others, 40.12%


DOUBLING TIMEDOUBLING TIME It implies the time needed for the population to It implies the time needed for the population to

double (70/ GR).double (70/ GR). More the growth rate of population, less the doubling More the growth rate of population, less the doubling

time.time.

Annual growth Annual growth raterate

Doubling time Doubling time (yrs)(yrs)

2.02.0 3535

1.51.5 4747

1.01.0 7070

0.50.5 139139Dr. Muhammad Razzaq MalikDr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

WORLD POPULATIONWORLD POPULATION

Three fourth of pop.Three fourth of pop. Developing countriesDeveloping countries Populous countries arePopulous countries are

ChinaChina 1285 M (21.08%)1285 M (21.08%) IndiaIndia 1027 m (16.87%)1027 m (16.87%) USAUSA 286 M (4.63%)286 M (4.63%)


CRUDE BIRTH RATECRUDE BIRTH RATE

It is the number of births per 1000 population It is the number of births per 1000 population per year in a given community.per year in a given community.

Pakistan Birth rate: Pakistan Birth rate: 24.3 births/1,000 24.3 births/1,000 population (2012 est.) population (2012 est.)

The birth rate is usually the dominant factor in The birth rate is usually the dominant factor in determining the rate of population growth. It determining the rate of population growth. It depends on both the level of fertility and the depends on both the level of fertility and the age structure of the population.age structure of the population.


CRUDE DEATH RATECRUDE DEATH RATE

It is the total number of deaths per 1000 It is the total number of deaths per 1000 population per year in a given community. It population per year in a given community. It indicates the rate at which people are dying.indicates the rate at which people are dying.

Death rate of PakistanDeath rate of Pakistan 6.8 deaths/1,000 population (July 2011 est.)6.8 deaths/1,000 population (July 2011 est.)


GROWTH RATEGROWTH RATE

When crude death rate is subtracted from crude birth When crude death rate is subtracted from crude birth rate, the net result is annual growth rate.rate, the net result is annual growth rate.

The growth rate is commonly expressed in The growth rate is commonly expressed in percentage.percentage.

GR=CBR-CDRGR=CBR-CDR Growth rate is subjected to momentum.Growth rate is subjected to momentum.

The factors are age distribution, marriage customs, cultural, The factors are age distribution, marriage customs, cultural, social and economic factors.social and economic factors.


POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH

It refers to the rate at which a given population It refers to the rate at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of is expected to increase in a given period of time. It is presented in %age.time. It is presented in %age.

PG=PG=NATURAL INCREASE+NET MIGRATIONNATURAL INCREASE+NET MIGRATION Net migration is the total number of persons added or Net migration is the total number of persons added or

subtracted from a population as a result of combined subtracted from a population as a result of combined effect of immigration and emigration.effect of immigration and emigration.


PAKISTAN POPULATION PAKISTAN POPULATION GROWTHGROWTH

Population growth ratePopulation growth rate 1.551% (2011 est.)1.551% (2011 est.)

PopulationPopulation 190,291,129 (July 2011 est.)190,291,129 (July 2011 est.)

CBR & CDRCBR & CDR

CBR & CDR

30

24

29

18

15

910 10

15

9 98

7 78

5

10

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

pakistan india bangladesh thailand china JAPAN singapur UK USA

Country

RA

TE

S

CBR

CDR


CBR & CDRCBR & CDRCountryCountry CBRCBR CDRCDR

PakistanPakistan 3030 99

IndiaIndia 2424 99

BangladeshBangladesh 2929 88

ThailandThailand 1818 77

ChinaChina 1515 77

JAPANJAPAN 99 88

SingaporeSingapore 1010 55

UKUK 1010 1010

USAUSA 1515 88

WORLDWORLD 2222 99Dr. Muhammad Razzaq MalikDr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

ZERO POPULATION ZERO POPULATION GROWTHGROWTH

Replacement level fertilityReplacement level fertility When a couple has two births during their When a couple has two births during their

reproductive life, just enough to replace reproductive life, just enough to replace themselves.themselves.

At a community level, replacement level is At a community level, replacement level is considered when there are , on an average 2.1 considered when there are , on an average 2.1 births per woman.births per woman.


AGE – SEX COMPOSITIONAGE – SEX COMPOSITION

It refers the to the proportion of males and It refers the to the proportion of males and females in different age groups.females in different age groups.

Age sex composition has a direct impact on Age sex composition has a direct impact on social, economic, and health needs of social, economic, and health needs of communities.communities.

OLD population-care of elderlyOLD population-care of elderly YOUNG population-more schools, YOUNG population-more schools,

vaccinations, economic supportvaccinations, economic support


Pakistan Age StructurePakistan Age Structure

Age structureAge structure 0-14 years: 0-14 years: 35.4% (male 34,093,853/female 35.4% (male 34,093,853/female

32,278,462) 32,278,462) 15-64 years:15-64 years: 60.4% (male 58,401,016/female 60.4% (male 58,401,016/female 54,671,873) 54,671,873) 65 years and over:65 years and over: 4.2% (male 4.2% (male 3,739,647/female 4,157,870) (2011 est.)3,739,647/female 4,157,870) (2011 est.)

Pakistan Sex RatioPakistan Sex Ratio

Sex ratioSex ratio at birth: at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female 1.05 male(s)/female

under 15 years:under 15 years: 1.06 male(s)/female 1.06 male(s)/female 15-64 years:15-64 years: 1.07 male(s)/female 1.07 male(s)/female 65 years and over:65 years and over: 0.89 male(s)/female 0.89 male(s)/female total population:total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2011 1.06 male(s)/female (2011 est.)est.)

POPULATION PYRAMIDPOPULATION PYRAMID

It is a pictorial presentation of age sex It is a pictorial presentation of age sex composition of a population.composition of a population. Male to female ratio in diff. age groupsMale to female ratio in diff. age groups Population is old or youngPopulation is old or young Dependency ratioDependency ratio Rate at which population is increasingRate at which population is increasing Recent changes in fertility or mortality.Recent changes in fertility or mortality.

Sex RatioSex Ratio

It is the number of females per 1000 malesIt is the number of females per 1000 males It is affected byIt is affected by

Mortality conditions among male and femalesMortality conditions among male and females Sex selective migrationSex selective migration Sex ratio at birthSex ratio at birth

Sex ratio= no. of males/no. of femalesX100Sex ratio= no. of males/no. of femalesX100


Dependency RatioDependency Ratio

The proportion of persons above 65 years and The proportion of persons above 65 years and below 15 years of age are considered to be below 15 years of age are considered to be dependent on the economically productive age dependent on the economically productive age group.group.

The ratio of combined age group 0-14 years The ratio of combined age group 0-14 years plus 65 years and above to the 15-65 years age plus 65 years and above to the 15-65 years age group is referred as dependency ratio.group is referred as dependency ratio.


Dependency RatioDependency Ratio

Pakistan = > 80 %Pakistan = > 80 % Japan = 43 %Japan = 43 %


Growth ratesGrowth rates

95% growth is in developing countries95% growth is in developing countries Population will be 8 billion in 2025Population will be 8 billion in 2025 Population will be 10 billion in 2050Population will be 10 billion in 2050 Population will be 20.7 billion in 2100.Population will be 20.7 billion in 2100. According to the latest Economic Survey of According to the latest Economic Survey of

Pakistan, the country’s population growth rate Pakistan, the country’s population growth rate declined from 2.05 per cent in 2010-11 to 2.03 declined from 2.05 per cent in 2010-11 to 2.03 per cent in 2011-12,per cent in 2011-12,


Growth ratesGrowth rates

176 per minute176 per minute 10564 per hour10564 per hour 253,542 per day253,542 per day 92,543,000 per year92,543,000 per year


Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik MBBS, MPH, MCPS (Com...

Documents

Transcript of Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik MBBS, MPH, MCPS (Com...