Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea

Ahmad Mahdeyan

2016

Ph.D. of Futures Studies (Strategic Foresight and Scenarios)

Tehran, IRAN+98 912 343 7916mahdeyan@iraneservice.comhttps://linkedin.com/in/ahmadeyan

Preface

• This abstract previously has been accepted for presentation by SCENARIO 2015 Conference (Improving Scenario Methodology: Theory and Practice, 14–15 December 2015, Warwick Business School, Coventry, UK)

• But due to not attending, after some edition also the full paper accepted to present at India (International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, 22-24 February 2016)

Road Map

1. Introduction

These trends pose a fundamental question. What is the problem?

The complexity of decision making and rapid changes associated with globalization leads to stillborn and failure of many Future Scenarios assumptions in organizations as well as in the area of social changes that put the world on a great historical twist.

It seems before understanding the origin of the creative’s ideas of future scenarios and laws governing the future time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories for future.

Scenarios situation in Futures Studies methods (Popper, 2009, p. 13 & 15)

Main Question• How we can improve the ability of Scenario

planning in order to make enough potential in facing alternative future?

For this regard, we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the fundamental effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios;

1)1) Idea ontology, Idea ontology, 2)2) The origin of creative thinking, The origin of creative thinking, 3)3) Idea nurturing in organizations, Idea nurturing in organizations, 4)4) Shaping the future time, Shaping the future time, 5)5) Scenario planning,Scenario planning,6)6) Ideas social network (global brain).Ideas social network (global brain).

2. Methodology

• This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. Its analysis approach has been based on intuition-rational philosophy to explore new area of an interdisciplinary science by descriptive manner.

• According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources will be valid and due to experts continuous supervisions will be reliable.

The process of converting data into information, knowledge and wisdom (Mahdeyan, 2012)

3. literature Discussion3.1. Idea Ontology

• Ideas are conceptions in the mind, they are a product of mental activity expressing “A thought or suggestion as to a possible course of action” (Concise Oxford English Dictionary, 2011, p. 707).

3.2. The Origin of Creative Thinking

• Humans are innovative and good at creative thinking due to the ability of our brains to blend two or more ideas and create a new idea. Blending is the pivotal feature of the human mind and innovation will be a necessary product of the blending mind (Turner, 2015).

Left Brain vs. Right Brain (kaykas-wolff, 2012)

The left hemisphere controls analytic thinking such

The right side is the creative, imaginative side where intuition, imagination, pictorial thinking, and synthesis occur.

Where Good Ideas Come From? (Johnson, 2011)

3.3. Idea Nurturing in Organizations

• The burden of producing ideas is great. And it’s better handled with the help of others than trying to fly solo.

Keith Reinhardt, former chairman of advertising behemoth DDB Worldwide, observed;

“I believe that great ideas are individual acts of inspiration, but that great advertising programs result from a team effort which builds upon an original idea and expands it.”

Idea Maturity Funnel (Lacontora & Mathews, 2009 )

Idea Phase Learning Phase Discovery Phase• Contextual• Qualitative• Business

concept

• Range of performance• Quasi-quantitative• Risk & Opportunity

Identification

• Quantitative• Value & Investment• Mitigation

FILTERING VALIDATION

IdeasProject

ManagementProcess

Creative problem-solving techniques by individuals and groups

Individual Techniques to increase Individual Techniques to increase Creative Thinking (Take, 2015)Creative Thinking (Take, 2015)•Ask QuestionsAsk Questions•Lateral ThinkingLateral Thinking•ChecklistsChecklists•StoryboardingStoryboarding•NLP NLP •DO IT!DO IT!

Group Creativity Techniques (Antoni, Group Creativity Techniques (Antoni, Canal, Cardama, & Coderch, 2015)Canal, Cardama, & Coderch, 2015)•Forced Relationship Forced Relationship •Tree of Ideas or Mind MapsTree of Ideas or Mind Maps•SWOT SWOT •Key Questions Key Questions •BrainstormingBrainstorming•Delphi Delphi

3.4. Shaping the Future Time

Future Worlds

Paradigms of Vision

direction

Absolute Laws of the eternal Time

Singularity or discontinuity of future Trends of the past (Mahdeyan, 2013)

3.5. Scenario Planning

• Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is to make better decisions in the present (Bentham, 2008).

• They are not predictions. Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues (Schwartz & Ogilvy, 2004).

• Scenarios are “a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decisions might be played out” said Schwartz (1996) (Rhisiart, 2006).

• Scenario planning focuses on situations where managers need to gain a better understanding of the external environment and how different uncertainties interact together (Kunc & O'Brien, 2015).

Why we use Scenarios?

scenario methods

• Scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, shows its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. This addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning (Chermack T. J., 2011).

There is a wide variety of scenario methods (Minkkinen, 2015).

The performance-based scenario 5 phase system

(Chermack & Coons, 2012)

How many Scenarios: Four Is The Magic Number (Garland, 2015).

Four scenarios European social platform in 2050 by two critical uncertainties (Hicks, 2012)

3.6. Ideas Social Network (Global Brain)

• The Global Brain can be defined as the self-organizing network formed by all people on this planet together with the information and communication technologies that connect and support them. It increasingly links its users into a single information processing system, which functions like a nervous system for the planet Earth. The intelligence of this system is collective and distributed. Such a distributed intelligence may be able to tackle current and emerging global problems that have eluded more traditional approaches (Elsevier, 2015).

As Nikola Tesla (1926) describing a cell phone back 'When wireless is perfectly applied the whole earth will be

converted into a huge brain, which in fact it is, all things being particles of a real and rhythmic whole"

(Boevink, 2015) (Kennedy, 1926).

Social Media

• In recent years discussions about social trends or desirable and possible futures have increasingly been taking place in the so-called social media.

• With access to this content new perspectives are opened up for scenario methodology (Moehrle, 2015).

• Text mining delivers a fast overview on aspects describing the scenario field to capture the topic and derive influence areas and factors (Kayser, 2015).

• In future social media can be used for several purposes; as well as supporting wider engagement in the project itself, it can facilitate communication between interested activists (Meadows & O’Brien, 2015).

4. ConclusionConceptual Model of the Origin of Future Scenario's Idea

Group Perception via Network Collaboration

Individual Structural Perception by Effort

Cognitive Map of Brain based on Past Experiences and Future

Visions

Copy Principle

Categories Blending by CAUSALITY

New Idea Intuition(Future Scenarios)

The power of act in the present based on past

potential and future vision

Global Brain Personal Intelligence

Experiences from Environment

New Futures

Genetic base of innate ideas

Dreams outside the physical nature

Enthusiasm to Solve Present Problem

Innate Sense of Perfection

Conceptual Model of the Origin of Future Scenario's Idea

Group Perception via Network Collaboration

Individual Structural Perception by Effort

Cognitive Map of Brain based on Past Experiences and Future

Visions

Copy Principle

Categories Blending by CAUSALITY

New Idea Intuition(Future Scenarios)

The power of act in the present based on past

potential and future vision

Global Brain Personal Intelligence

Experiences from Environment

New Futures

Genetic base of innate ideas

Dreams outside the physical nature

Enthusiasm to Solve Present Problem

Innate Sense of Perfection

Future Map

Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea

• How Global Brain can benefit problem solving by gathering different people collaboration on the specific issues?

• How Cognitive Science strategies can benefit scenario planning by reshaping mental models?

• How we can make some developments in brain performance by biotechnology, genome enrichment, food and exercises, etc. to benefit next generation even present people?

• Future Scenarios of the World's Mega Trends that will affect human life in different aspects.

Business Forecasting Model of Future Scenario's Idea

Thank you

Ahmad MahdeyanAhmad Mahdeyan

Futures Studies (Strategic Foresight & Scenarios), Foresight Scholar (PhD)Futures Studies (Strategic Foresight & Scenarios), Foresight Scholar (PhD)

Tehran, IRANTehran, IRAN

+98 912 343 7916+98 912 343 7916am@iraneservice.comam@iraneservice.comahmad.ahmadeyan (Skype)ahmad.ahmadeyan (Skype)https://linkedin.com/in/ahmadeyanhttps://linkedin.com/in/ahmadeyan