1. 12/09/2013 DRAFT The Labor Market Situation December 9, 2013 Dr. Jennifer Hunt Chief Economist US Department of Labor 0 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 0 DRAFT Payroll survey: good November; upward revisions 1-month change, in thousands November 196 October 214 September 168 12-month change, in thousands November 2012 to 2013: 2,315 Average: 193 1 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 1 1

2. 12/09/2013 DRAFT Employment growth by super-sector 2 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 2 DRAFT Above average report Unsure what to expect, due to shutdown/debt ceiling, but Unlike last months report, the two surveys went in the same direction Better than average job growth and a drop in the rate Broad-based industry growth From September to November employment rate didnt change The economy had more momentum than we thought in September 3rd quarter GDP growth was revised up .8 percentage points to 3.6% So employment growth decent despite shutdown/debt ceiling Could have been really good employment growth without shutdown, debt ceiling, and political uncertainty in general 3 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 3 2

3. 12/09/2013 DRAFT Unemployment rate returned to pre-shutdown November 2013: October 2013: September 2013: November 2012: 7.0 % 7.3 % 7.2 % 7.8 % Office of the Chief Economist 4 4 Filename/RPS Number DRAFT Employment also rebounded November 2013: October 2013: September 2013: November 2012: 5 Filename/RPS Number 58.6 % 58.3 % 58.6 % 58.7 % Office of the Chief Economist 5 3

4. 12/09/2013 DRAFT Labor force participation only partially rebounded November 2013: October 2013: September 2013: November 2012: 63.0 % 62.8 % 63.2 % 63.6 % Office of the Chief Economist 6 6 Filename/RPS Number DRAFT Long-term unemployed remains over 4 million November 2013: October 2013: September 2013: November 2012: 7 Filename/RPS Number 4.1 mil 4.1 mil 4.1 mil 4.8 mil Office of the Chief Economist 7 4

5. 12/09/2013 In October, we saw large increase in the number of people not in the labor force. DRAFT Change = 155 + 608 = 763 2,497 4,306 Not in Labor Force Unemployed Employed 3,698 2,652 +155 +608 Office of the Chief Economist 8 8 Filename/RPS Number In November, we see a substantial decrease in the number of people not in the labor force. DRAFT Change = -180 + (-238)= - 438 2,611 3,382 Not in Labor Force Unemployed Employed 3,620 2,431 -180 9 Filename/RPS Number -238 Office of the Chief Economist 9 5

6. 12/09/2013 DRAFT Extending EUC will help our economy and millions of families Nearly 69 million people have been supported by extended UI benefits, including almost 17 million children 3.6 million additional people will lose access to UI benefits beyond 26 weeks by the end of 2014 Failing to extend UI benefits would reduce demand and cost 240,000 jobs in 2014. CBO and JP Morgan estimates suggest that without an extension of EUC GDP will be .2 to .4 percentage points lower. Expiration of extended UI benefits may also lead some long-term unemployed to stop looking for work and leave the labor force. The long-term unemployment rate (2.6% in October) is at least twice as high as it was at the expiration of every previous program. EUC is self-ending: the median number of weeks one can receive benefits is down from a peak of 53 weeks in 2010 to 28 weeks currently and 14 weeks under the proposed extension Office of the Chief Economist 10 10Filename/RPS Number DRAFT The median number of weeks available has fallen as the economy has improved Historical and Projected EUC Weeks Available at Median and 90 th Percentile 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Median 11Filename/RPS Number 2012 2013 2014 2015 90th percentile Office of the Chief Economist 11 6

7. 12/09/2013 DRAFT Thank you! 12Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 12 7