Impact assessment – what, why, how? Dr. Jean Hugé

Jean.Huge@ulb.ac.be KLIMOS

Impact assessment?

• The process of identifying the future consequences of a current or proposed action

• It’s a prospective (ex ante) exercise

• That can be used at various levels (project, program, plan, policy..)

Temporal focus

Retrospective Prospective

Indicators/ indices

Product related assessment

Integrated assessment

• Conceptual modelling* • System dynamics* • Multi-criteria analysis* • Risk analysis* • Uncertainty analysis* • Vulnerability analysis* • Cost benefit analysis*

Impact assessment

• Environmental impact assessment

• Strategic environmental assessment

• EU sustainability impact assessment

* Tools capable of integrating nature society systems into single evaluation

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Monetary valuation: willingness to pay, avoided cost, replacement cost, Factor income

Assessment tools

IA is: a process?

• A series of steps to achieve a particular end • Which steps? • What end is to be achieved? • Who is in charge? • Fixed or flexible? • How do you define achievement? • What’s key: following the steps and/or achieving the end?

IA is: a process of identifying

• Qualitatively vs quantitatively? • Describing? • Assessing? • Measuring? (against what?) • Making normative preferences explicit? • Discovering? • Ranking? • Pragmatic vs (?) scientific purpose? • A range of tools, methods & approaches exist to ‘perform this identification’?

IA is: a process of identifying the future consequences…

• Intended vs un-intended consequences? • Stated objectives vs side effects? • Negative or positive side-effects? • Who determines this? • Who suffers/enjoys the consequences? • Which kind of consequences are we talking about? Env? Soc? Econ? Others? • Time & geographical scale of the consequences? • How can we predict these consequences? • What about uncertainty? • Context-specificity? • Determined by the activity causing the impacts, and by the ‘receiving environment’? • What about attributability?

IA: is the process of identifying the future consequences of a current or proposed action

• Which kind of action? • Projects? • Policy, plans & programmes? • Products? • Whose action?

Why perform impact assessment?

• Question can be answered in various ways • Values? ‘Because (we believe) it’s a good thing to do’ • Practical reasons?

‘Because it makes our work better/easier/cheaper’

• Legislation? ‘Because the law tells us to do so’ Boundaries between these three ‘reasons’ are often a bit blurred, but it helps to keep these in mind when trying to understand how IAs emerge(d)

Why perform impact assessment?

UNU

IA comes in many formats

EIA steps in a nutshell: the classic scheme

Where can IA be used: what are ‘entry points’?

Drutschinin et al., 2015

EIA & SEA

EIA & SEA EIA SEA

Process Linear Iterative

Screening Projects requiring EIA are often listed

Mostly decided case-by-case

Scoping Combination of local issues & technical checklists

Combination of political agenda, stakeholder discussion and expert judgement

Public participation Often includes general public

Focus on representative bodies

Assessment More quantitative More qualitative

Quality Review Focus on quality of information

Both quality of information and stakeholder process

Decision-Making Comparison against norms & standards

Comparison of alternatives against policy objectives

Monitoring Focusing on measuring actual impacts

Focus on plan implementation

NCEA, 2016

Benefits of SEA

• SEA can improve decision making related to policies, plans and programmes, and thus improve development outcomes by:

• 1. Supporting the integration of environment and development. • 2. Providing environmental-based evidence to support informed decisions. • 3. Improving the identification of new opportunities. • 4. Preventing costly mistakes. • 5. Building public engagement in decision making for improved

governance. • 6. Facilitating transboundary co-operation.

Benefits of SEA: examples (1/2)

Example 1: Tanzania National Development Strategy

• The strategy has a specific goal on environmental sustainability and 14% of the targets are directly related to the environment & natural resources

• Interventions on environment are expected to have positive effect on other targets

• Set of poverty-environment indicators has been developed as part of the national poverty monitoring system.

OECD , DAC (2006)

Benefits of SEA: examples (2/2)

• Example 2: SEA of Water use in Mhlathuze catchment, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa

• There was a deep historical inequity in the allocation of water resources between established commercial sectors and the community, although more that half of the land was in communal ownership and occupied by 80% of the population in the catchment.

• There were prospects for a more equitable sharing of this water.

• Putting the “haves” and the “have-nots” together to debate needs, demands and visions face-to-face was essential to mutual understanding and suggested that ways could be found to ameliorate inequities.

OECD-DAC, 2006

Evolution & trends in IA

• Sustainability is now (becoming) an overarching goal of almost all impact assessments (EIA & others)

• Participation is now an overarching process characteristic

• Firm (?) legislative anchoring all over the world (at least for EIA)

• Politicization of EIA as a clear tendency ((ab-)using (E)IA in political discussions)

OECD DAC 2006

Impact assessment: take home message

• Institutionalized approaches (e.g. EIA & SEA) co-exist with experimental approaches (SEA, other IAs)

• There is no blueprint impact assessment approach

• Impact assessment is a family of approaches & tools

• Impact assessment can be used for different purposes be aware that all involved stakeholders may not necessarily have the same expectations!

References

• Drutschinin et al. 2015. Biodiversity and Development. OECD Working Paper N°21. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/biodiversity-and-development-co-operation_5js1sqkvts0v-en?crawler=true

• Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment. www.eia.nl

• OECD DAC 2006. Applying SEA. Good Practice Guidance for Development Cooperation. http://www.oecd.org/development/environment-development/37353858.pdf