Dr. Doerte Fouquet, representing EREF asbl European Renewable Energies Federation.

Renewable Energy- the view of independent

producersDr. Doerte Fouquet,

representingEREF asbl European Renewable Energies Federation

Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

2

Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers”

2 oC

Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009


3

Current RES DeploymentSource Ren 21


4

In 2005, renewable energy sources accounted for 13% of the world’s primary energy demand. Biomass, which is mostly used for heating, is the main renewable energy source.

The share of renewable energy in electricity generation was 18%. The contribution of renewables to primary energy demand for heat supply was around 24%.

About 80% of primary energy supply today still comes from fossil fuels, and 6% from nuclear power

State of Affairs


5

Net Increase/Decrease of capacity in electricity in EU 2000-2007 (in MW)

Source: Prioritising Wind Energy Research Strategic Agenda, EWEA; Platts

Global developments savingsand clean energy technologies

Dr. Dörte Fouquet, The European Renewables Energies Federation (EREF)

ConnectionsSource: Thomas B. Johansson 2010

8

Sets mandatory minimum national targets for renewable energy shares, including 10% biofuels share in transport, in 2020

Requires National Action Plans, Gives flexibility for Member States to reach part of their

target through Statistical transfer Joint projects between Member States and third countries

with existing or planned interconnector capacity (under certain conditions and provided RES energy reaches the EU) )

Encourages joint Support mechanisms between MS Sets clear rules for disclosure quality of Guarantees of

origin Requires reduction of administrative and regulatory

barriers, improvements in provision of information and training and improves renewables’ access to the electricity grid

Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels


The new EU RES Directive a good tool

9

20% GHG reduction compared to 1990

Independent commitment 30% GHG reduction compared to 1990

In context of international agreement 20% renewables share of final energy consumption 10% bioenergy in transport, with

production being sustainablesecond generation biofuels commercially

availableElectricity from RES


Europe’s new Commitment

Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, April 2010

10

Mandatory EU RE TargetsSource JRC

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

UK

SI

SK

SE

RO

PT

PL

NL

MT

LV

LT

LU

IT

IE

HU

FR

FI

ES

EL

EE

DK

DE

CZ

CY

BG

BE

AT

Production 2005

Target 2020

8.5%20%

11

National overall targets for the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy in 2020* (ANNEX I of RES Directive)

2005 (1) 2020 (2)2005 2020

Belgium 2,2 % 13% Lithuania 15,0 % 23%Bulgaria 9,4 % 16% Luxembourg 0,9 % 11%Czech Republic 6,1 % 13% Hungary 4,3 % 13%Denmark 17,0 % 30% Malta 0,0 % 10%Germany 5,8 % 18% The Netherlands 2,4 % 14%Estonia 18,0 % 25% Austria 23,3 % 34%Ireland 3,1 % 16% Poland 7,2 % 15%Greece 6,9 % 18% Portugal 20,5 % 31%Spain 8,7 % 20% Romania 17,8 % 24%France 10,3 % 23% Slovenia 16,0 % 25%Italy 5,2 % 17% Slovak Republic6,7 % 14%Cyprus 2,9 % 13% Finland 28,5 % 38%Latvia 32,6 % 40% Sweden 39,8 % 49%United Kingdom 1,3 % 15%

(1) Share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy, (2) Target for share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy


EU 27’s homework


12

Change in Paradigm: individual responsibility for own energy supply, as local and decentralised as possible

Households and private sector in general should primarily produce their own heat and electricity from RES sources in an efficient environment

Combination with drastic change in consumption pattern and increase in efficiency

Political commitment beyond ideologies and beyound short term thinking to go for strong national efficiency and RES policies

Clear instruments, targets for rapid uptake and enforcement Change from primarily energy generating companies to energy

service providing companies High level of market penetration by Independent RES Power

Production Swift abatement of open and hidden harmful subsidies to

incumbent industry As long as these conditions are not really met – counterbalance

through state policies is necessity

Pre-Conditions for 3 * 20


13

National action plans (due by 30 June 2010) Member States offers and requests for

statistical transfers/joint projects and the details of those exchanges that occur Member States' progress reports (first due by December 2011)

The Commission's progress reports (first due by December 2012).

Timing for Reporting


14

In accordance with Article 4(2) and (3) of Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (RE Directive):

Member States shall notify their national renewable energy action plans to the Commission by 30 June 2010.

Each Member State shall publish and notify to the Commission, six months before its national renewable energy action plan is due, a forecast document indicating:

a) its estimated excess production of energy from renewable sources (compared to the indicative trajectory) which could be transferred to other Member States in accordance with Articles 6 to 11, as well as its estimated potential for joint projects, until 2020;

and b) its estimated demand for energy from renewable sources to

be satisfied by means other than domestic production until 2020.'

Forecast to 2020


15

The proportion of energy from renewable sources in the gross final consumption of energy is forecast to be 50.2% in 2020, which may be compared with the binding national target of 49% in 2020. Sweden will have a forecast excess of approx. 1.2 percentage points in 2020.

(source :Swedish Forecast Report to EC Commission, 2009)

Sweden’s Ambition


16

“We would reply as follows to the points under Article 4(3) of Directive 2009/28/EC:

a) Finland does not produce an excess of renewable energy which could be transferred to other Member States in accordance with Articles 6 to 11; and

b) Finland is capable of meeting its renewable-energy objectives itself, without using the cooperation mechanisms between Member States which are provided for in the Directive.”

(Source: Finnish Forecast Report)

Example: Finland


17

“One of the aims of the strategy is to halt and reverse the growth in energy consumption. A further aim is to increase the share of enewable energy to 38% by 2020, in line with the obligation under the Renewable Energy Directive. This is a challenging obligation, and meeting it will primarily require energy consumption to be reduced.” (Forecast Document)

Finland and Recession

But: the fiddling starts Finland : Government want to make its RES

target reaching depending from new nuclear build

Czech Republic: Grid access obstacles increasing – Freezing of grid access permits

Cost for balancing increasingly burdened on investor (e.g. Bulgaria)


19

Can we do better than the 2020 targets?


20

Share of Renewable Energies in Total Final Energy Consumption – 28 instead of 18% in 2020

Total Consumption Renewable Energy Share RE


21


22

Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010 23

Jobs in the renewable energy sector in Germany 2004, 2008 und 2009

3,400

9,500

56,800

63,900

4,300

9,300

95,800

85,100

6,500

9,300

9,000

87,100

25,100

1,800

74,400

9,100

109,000

79,600

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000

Geothermal energy

Hydropower

Solar energy

Biomass

Wind energy

Increase: approx. 87 %

Public / non-profit - sector jobs

Figures for 2008 and 2009 are provisional estimate;Source: BMU-KI III Projekt "Gross employment from renewable energy in Germany in the year 2009, a first estimate"; Image: BMU / Christoph Busse / transit

2004 2008 2009

160,500employments

278,000employments

300,500employments

Industry fo

recast: >500,000 jo

bs in 2020


24

The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation.

By 2050, around 77% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources (including large hydro). A capacity of 9,100 GW will produce 28,600 TWh/a of renewable electricity in 2050.

In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to 70% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal.

Before sustainable bio fuels are introduced in the transport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. As biomass is mainly committed to stationary applications, the production of bio fuels is limited by the availability of sustainable raw materials. Electric vehicles powered by renewable energy sources, will play an increasingly important role from 2020 onwards.

By 2050, 56% of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources. Global Energy ®evolution 2009

The way to 100 % RES – the view of the RES industry and stakeholders

Scenario: Greenpeace 100 % EE electricity for Germany by 2050 Renewables in general: 100% in electricity;

of which:Wind onshore: 19% Offshore Wind: 35% Geothermal: 20% Solar PV: 11% Biomass: 10% Hydro: 5% (source: Greenpeace www.greenpeace.de/fileadmin/gpd/user_upload/themen/klima/Klimaschutz_PlanB.pdf) (update: 2009)

25

Rain

er H

inrich

s - Rah

lwes, V

ice P

resid

en

t ER

EF,

Ap

ril 20

10

http://www.greenpeace.de/fileadmin/gpd/user_upload/themen/klima/Klimaschutz_PlanB.pdf

http://www.greenpeace.de/fileadmin/gpd/user_upload/themen/klima/Klimaschutz_PlanB.pdf


26

Price ExperienceSource: JRC 2009


27

Be efficient !


28

Development pathway for the exploitation of energy efficiency potential, focused on current best practice as well as technologies available in the future.

The EREC/GREENPEACE Energy [R]evolution Scenario: worldwide final energy demand can be reduced by 38% in 2050 compared to the IEA Reference Scenario.

The energy supply scenarios adopted in this report, which extend beyond and enhance projections made by the International Energy Agency, have been calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation model. The demand side projection to take into account the future potential for energy efficiency measures.

Energy Efficiency – the hidden beauty


29

Exploitation of the existing large energy efficiency potentials will ensure that primary energy demand increases only slightly – from the current global 474,900 PJ/a (2005) to 480,860 PJ/a in 2050, compared to 867,700 PJ/a

Condition sine qua non for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources in the overall energy supply system, for compensating the phasing out of nuclear energy and for drastic reducing the consumption of fossil fuels globally.

Greenpeace Scenario

Energy Efficiency is key


30

The grid integration of huge percentages of fluctuating sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic needs further scientific and technical research.

Excellent regional meteorological data Storage and balancing capacity on all levels

of energy path (batteries, pump storage, hydro and biogas as storage, cavern use, transport means and buildings as storage hubs, IT for rapid balancing)

Clever Energy management is key


31

Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Internalise the external (social and environmental) costs

of energy production Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy

consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and

combined heat and power generation. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority

access to the grid for renewable power generators. Provide defined and stable returns for investors, e.g by

well designed feed-in tariff programmes. better labelling and disclosure mechanisms to provide more

environmental product information. Increase research and development budgets for renewable

energy and energy efficiency.

Good policies are key

Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, April 2010

32

A word on RES pricing Current discussion of FiT system and its rates for

PV in Germany shows a problematic picture: As much as Independent power producer applaud

rapid decrease in technology prices there is a fine line to short sighted populist move by politicians which endangers the validity of the whole RES sector

It seems it is “en vogue” to go after RES but keep on being blind on topics such as windfall profits and reserve funds for future dismantling of Nuclear Power plants which give enormous extra cash to the incumbent industry


33

◦ Thank you for your attention !

◦Dr. Dörte Fouquet◦[email protected]◦www.eref-europe.org

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.eref-europe.org/

Dr. Doerte Fouquet, representing EREF asbl European Renewable Energies Federation.

Documents

Transcript of Dr. Doerte Fouquet, representing EREF asbl European Renewable Energies Federation.