Disasters and Climate Change Scenario

10361200

Rate of increase of human loss(1961‐1960 BS)

60007000

Rate of Increase of Property loss(1961‐2060 BS)

0 0 16

410

16221

02004006008001000

Hum

an loss in

 %

2639 Rate of Increase of Property loss, 2231000

20003000400050006000

rope

rty loss in

 %

‐80 0 ‐46‐2000

Axis Title

loss, 223

‐10000

P

HeavyHeavy precipitationsprecipitationsHeavyHeavy precipitationsprecipitations((rainrain or or snowsnow))

Storm (Storm (windswinds))River basin River basin floodingflooding

Hail&LightningHail&Lightning

Hot & cold Hot & cold spellsspells

DroughtsDroughts

Dust stormsDust storms

AvalanchesAvalanchesFlash floodsFlash floods

Mud & landslidesMud & landslides

Humanitarian Impacts due to Hydro‐climatic Disasters (Extreme Weather Impacts)( p )

10 Year Death & Property Loss

P t L

Human Lossy = 346.98x - 789.87

R2 0 6693

Death Property loss Linear (Property loss) Linear (Death)

Property Lossy = 75434x - 230976

R2 = 0.6064

R2 = 0.6693

4000

4500

700000

800000

2000

25003000

3500

th

400000

500000

600000

in th

ousa

nd

5001000

15002000

Dea

t

100000

200000

300000

pert

y lo

ss i

Rs

-1000

-5000 1961-70

1971-80

1981-90

1991-00

2001-10

2011-20

2021-30

2031-40

2041-50

2051-60

Y

-200000

-100000

0

Pro

Year

Source : Paudel, D. 2006

Climate Change Scenario( d d f NDR 2009)(adopted from NDR,2009)

• Nepal is the most vulnerable country to climate‐related disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency ofdisasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of weather hazards(abrupt climate change)‐IPCC, 2007;

• Warming trends(1971‐94)‐ranging from 0.06 to 0.12 deg cel; The hottest 5% of days and nights (1970‐1999);

• GCM projection: increase in temp over Nepal of 0.5‐2 deg cel by 2030 and rising to 3 0‐6 3 deg by 2090;cel by 2030 and rising to 3.0‐6.3 deg by 2090; 

• The hottest days to be increased up to 55% by 2060s and 70% by 2090s;

• The hottest nights to be increased up to 77% by 2060s and 93% by 2090s;

h h b• Precipitation changes in the monsoon: ‐14 to +40% by 2030s and increasing ‐52 to 135% by 2090s;

Climate Change • IPCC defined "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is 

attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods". 

k|ToIf jf ck|ToIf ?kn] dfgljo lqmofsnfksf] sf/0fn] kYjLsf] jfod08nsf tTjx?df cfPsf] kl/jt{gn] jiff}{ b]lvk[YjLsf jfo'd08nsf tTjx?df cfPsf kl/jtgn jiff blv /lxcfPsf] k|fs[lts xfjfkfgLdf ePsf] kl/jt{gnfO{ g} Cli t Ch elgG5Climate Change elgG5 .

• IPCC refers to any significant change in climatic elements (temp, pptn or wind) long‐term for an extended period( decades or longer)pptn or wind) long term for an extended period( decades or longer)

• Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer)extended period (decades or longer).

The Linkage: Climate Change and Climate DisastersDisasters

Anthropogenic (Global Warming)

Climate Change( Abrupt Climate Change)

Rise in LST and SST

Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and SLR

Drought Cyclone and Storm SurgeFlood

Impacts on Livelihoods Assets (Loss of Property + Injury+ Death)

Disasters

Linkages between CC and DisastersLinkages between CC and Disasters

Disaster Or Risk = Hazard* X Vulnerability/(Capacity)

* ( )Hazard* : ( Extreme weather events) as a Result of CC

CC affects disaster risk by two ways: 1.through the likely increase in weather and climate hazards;weather and climate hazards;2. Increase in vulnerability of communities to natural hazards through Ecosystem Degradation‐reduction in water and food 

il bilit d h t li lih davailability and changes to livelihoods; 

Climate Change leads weathers

• Climate Variability: Unequal distribution of normal weather system(amount, timing and intensity) with time and space

• The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time• The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time

For example: annual ppt in Mahabharat region(2500‐3000mm) and cloudburst causes heavy rain suddenly like 500mm/day‐such cloudbursts‐

may occur at intervals of about 8‐10 years(NDR,2009)

• Extreme Rainfall Events

• More heat wavesMore heat waves

• Increased drought

• Increased frequency of high ppt in particular regions

• Increases in the number & intensity of strong cyclone

• Higher temp and melting glaciers

Extreme Rainfall Events(>300 mm per day)‐( p y)Source: Paudel Deepak, 2001)

Period AD Frequency(extreme rainfall)me rainfall)

1950‐1970 4

1971‐1980 19

1981‐1990 33

1991‐2000 20 (beyond 1997 adopted from 

NDR,2009)

CCA and DRR

CCA: The adjustment DRR: Action taken to reduceCCA: The adjustment in natural or human 

i

DRR: Action taken to reduce the risk of disasters and the adverse impacts of natural

systems in response to actual or expected 

adverse impacts of natural hazards through systematic 

efforts to analyze and climatic stimuli or their 

effects, which manage the causes of 

disasters, including through id f h d d

,moderated harm or exploits beneficial

avoidance of hazards and improved preparedness for adverse events(UNISDRexploits beneficial 

opportunities (IPCC)adverse events(UNISDR, 

2004)

Adaptation and DRR

Adaptation thro gh DRR HFA and CostAdaptation through DRR‐HFA and Cost‐Effectiveness : Preparing risk assessments(HFA 5) Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4) Improving5); Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4), Improving agricultural practices(HFA 4); Managing water resources(HFA4) Building settlements in saferesources(HFA4); Building settlements in safe 

zones; Developing early warning systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coveragesystems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage 

and Developing social safety nets(HFA4)

Existing DRR

Response Operation

DisasterImpact

Recovery short and longLong termsPreparedness

Post Disaster

Pre Disaster

Development

Prevention

Mitigation

A Basic DMC, 

Prevention

Adaptation to Climate Disaster Risk

Response DisasterImpact Operation and Emergency RecoveryImpact

Development(Long terms recovery)

Based on Scientific Climate certainities sector-wiiseEWS

Preparedness

PES(Prevention & Mitigation)(Prevention & Mitigation)

Linking & diff CCA and DRRDi CDivergence ConvergenceDRR CCARelevant to all hazards Relevant to climate-

l t d h drelated hazards Origin and culture in humanitarian assistance

Origin and culture in scientific theory

CCA specialists : being involved from all sectors including DRR sectorincluding DRR sector

Most concerned with the present risks

Most concerned with the future

Existing climate variability is an entry point for CCA

Traditional/indigenous may be insufficient Examples whereTraditional/indigenous knowledge at community level is basis for resilience

…. may be insufficient for resilience against types and scales of risk yet to be

Examples where integration of scientific knowledge and traditional knowledge for DRR y

experienced. g

provides learning opportunities

Traditional focus on Traditional focus on Climatic disaster is the vulnerability reduction physical exposure product of climatic

extremes/variability(physical exposure) and vulnerability

Linking & diff CCA and DRR(based on Tearfund,2008)

Divergence ConvergenceDivergence ConvergenceDRR CCAPractical application at local level

Theoretical application at local level

Climate change adaptation gaininglevel at local level adaptation gaining experience through practical; local application

Full range of established and Limited range of tools None, except increasing gdeveloping tools1

gunder development

, p grecognition that more adaptation tools are needed

Funding stream ad hoc and insufficient

Funding streams sizeable and i i

DRR community engaging climate change adaptation f di h iincreasing funding mechanisms

Why are existing adopted measures unable i h d ?to withstand CDs? 

• the design is made without adequate consideration of climate change. The measures are taken as mal adaptation in DRRmeasures are taken as mal‐adaptation in DRR

• It is not considered future risk to CC .• the best practices of DRR are considered adaptive measures to reduce 

climatic impacts. However, due to rapid change in climatic variability and p , p g yits uncertainty, the natural and human systems are facing challenges to adapt climatic disasters. 

Hence it requires re shaping re designing of development practicesHence, it requires re‐shaping, re‐designing of development practices including social and economic practices to respond effectively to newly environmental changes especially climatic extremes. 

• For this, HFA guideline and sustainable development strategy is to some i dd b i i i ifi fextent appropriate to address  CC by incorporating  scientific program for 

CC monitoring. 

DRR in CCRM ProcessDRR in CCRM Process

• UNFCCC emphasizes capacities for coping with U CCC e p as es capac t es o cop g textreme weather events through Bali Action Plan’s(BAP)‐CoP13

• CoP 13 highlights Risk Management and Risk Reduction Strategies‐risk sharing and transfer 

h imechanism;• BAP focuses on DRR through vulnerability assessments capacity buildings and responseassessments, capacity buildings, and response strategies and integration of actions into sectoralnational planning;p g;

Contd…With consultation of ISDR system and UNFCCC parties, UNISDR has identified the three areas of action: 

1. Develop national coordination mechanisms to link DRR and Adaptation‐National Platform for DRR and the national climate change team;

2. Conduct a baseline assessment on the status of DRR and Adaptation efforts‐HFA implementation;

3. Prepare Adaptation Plans drawing on the Hyogo Framework‐NAPA Documentation

Contd..Contd..

• DRR sector is one of the major thematicDRR sector is one of the major thematic component in NAPA

• Agriculture and Food SecurityAgriculture and Food Security• Forest and Bio‐diversity• Water and Energy• Water and Energy• Climate Induced DisastersP bli H lth d• Public Health; and

• Human Settlements and Infrastructures

Institutional tools for DRR and CCA)

Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063)Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063) •Provision for National Council for Disaster 

Management(NCDM) to be chaired by HR Prime MinisterP l t t N ti l Di t M t A th it•Proposal to set up National Disaster Management Authority 

(NDMA) under the NCDM, to act as the focal point for disaster management functions in Nepal from formulation of 

appropriate strategies and plans to implementation andappropriate strategies and plans to implementation and supervision of disaster management activities

•Emphasizes on development of micro and macro hazard and vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decisionvulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision 

makers to address disaster risk reduction effectively

(NSDRM‐2009)( )Guided by Priority Actions of HFA(2005‐2015) and is based on TDRM 

approach;NSDRM have highlighted sectoral strategy(nine sectors): 

Agriculture and food security ;Agriculture and food security ; Health and Nutrition; 

Education; Shelter, infrastructures and physical planning; , p y p g;

Livelihoods and Protection;Water and Sanitation;  

Forest and Soil Conservation; Information,  Communication, Coordination and Management, and Logistic;

Tracing, Rescue, Damage Assessment and Needs  Analysis

• Institutional Framework• National Council for Disaster Management (NCDM)• National Disaster Management Authority(NDMA) and Committees as a Secreteriate of NCDM

• Regional Disaster Management Committee;Di t i t Di t M t C itt d S b• District Disaster Management Committee and Sub committees

• Local Disaster Management CommitteeLocal Disaster Management Committee• Community Based Organizations;• Disaster Management Authority at Local Levelg y

Conclusions and Recommendation: Policy Options

1 Enhance Scientific certainities1. Enhance Scientific certainities

• Develop scientific programes for CC monitoring‐ well‐equipped stations and longterm monitoring networlingequipped stations and longterm monitoring, networling and cooperation

• Promote and apply regional climate model rather thanPromote and apply regional climate model rather than Global climate model‐inoder to identify hot spots of CC;

2. Promote Mitigation Measuresg

Land use management for carbon sinks and reduced emissions

Payment for ecosystem services(PES)

Development of alternative technologiesp g

3. Adaptations measuresDRR and EWSDRR and EWSSupport and promote community‐led adaptationsPay more attention to sectors particularly waterPay more attention to sectors particularly water, agriculture, health, HM  disaster risks into NAPADeveleope IWRMp

4. Public AwarnessInformation to local community;Enagement of the media and academia;A fruitful facilitation of international policy diologe and cooperation

4/23/2010

1

DPDP--Net Consultation Net Consultation WorkshopWorkshop

Climate Change and DisasterClimate Change and Disaster

ActivitiesActivitiesInception WorkshopInduction WorkshopLiterature ReviewTransect Exercise (Gandak, Karnali and Koshi))Regional Workshop Synthesis WorkshopWider Reference group consultation workshopConsultation with the group members

IntroductionCountry Background

Climatic ConditionRegions Ecological zones Climate

High Himal Mountain Tundra-type & Arctic

High Mountains Alpine/Sub-alpine

Middle mountain Hill Cool temperate monsoon/Warm temperate monsoon

Siwalik Hills Terai Hot monsoon & Subtropical

Terai Hot monsoon & Tropical

140.6

295

496.5423.2

263.5

1734.52621 9100

200

300

400

500

600

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Average of 30 years data (1976-2005), Monthly Rainfall (166 stations)Practical Action, 2009

1767.5 11.560.42621.9

0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Months

Disaster Scenario

Climate Induced DisastersFloods/flash floods/Glacial lake outburst flood/Avalanche LandslidesLandslides Forest fire/wild fireHailstorm/Windstrorm/ThunderboltDrought Outbreak of certain diseases

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Floods/flash floodsFloods/flash floodsImpact is all over the countryAmong 75 districts, 49 are prone to floodsHigh impact in TeraiAssociated with rise in river bed level, bank cutting, ilt ti d d iti f ilt th f til l dsiltation and deposition of silt on the fertile land

Higher loss of lives and propertiesMore impact on Agriculture production, Infrastructure, Destruction of country transportation network

SarlahiRautahatChitwanSaptari

DhanusaMahottari

UdayapurRupandehi

TanahuKailali

Kanchanpur

District vulnerability from District vulnerability from FloodsFloods

District vulnerability from District vulnerability from FloodsFloods

MahottariSunsariSindhuli

MakwanpurParsaSiraha

MorangJhapa

NawalparasiBardiya

SyangjaDailekhLalitpur

DangBara

BankeSindhupalchok

KavrepalanchokKathmandu

Kaski

Glacial lake outburst floodsGlacial lake outburst floods

By breaking the natural moraine damsImpact on the down stream community GLOF potential lakesGLOF potential lakes

Tsho Rolpa, Imja, Thulagi, Lumding, Lower Barun and West Chamjang

Landslides/debris flowLandslides/debris flow

Higher loss of lives (211 lives per annum)High Impact on mountain and hill regionMajor Highway linking the roads areMajor Highway linking the roads are vulnerable

District vulnerability from District vulnerability from LandslidesLandslides

Makwanpur DhadingSyangja

KavrepalanchokSindhupalchok

BaglungKaski

SankhuwasabhaNuwakot

GulmiPalpa

MyagdiLamjungParbatKaski

DolakhaKhotang

TaplejungOkhaldhungaRamechhap

ArghakhanchiBhojpur

Panchthar

SolukhumbuSindhuliDailekh

DarchulaGorkhaTanahuJajarkot

Doti

Thunderstorm/windstorm/hailstormThunderstorm/windstorm/hailstormThunderstorm- Claims livesWindstorm- Claims lives and public propertiesHailstorm- Destruction of crops specially in the mountainous district

DroughtAffects a large number of populationsOut of 75 district 40 district are food deficit

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3

Heat and Cold Wave

Lives killerNow cold wave is getting severe

Forest fire

Increasing tendency of forest fireLast year it claimed 43 lives and caused a loss of about Rs 134,415,000

Outbreak of Certain Diseases

Disaster wise estimated losses (2001Disaster wise estimated losses (2001--2008) 2008) NRsx106NRsx106

Year Floods and Landslides

Fires Wind, Hail and Thunderstorm Earthquake

2001 919.4 239.25 128.32 1.99

2002 251.09 246.25 38.69 3.82

2003 4169.51 94.74 11.91 0

2004 234.78 734.96 20.17 0

2005 219.29 121.03 0.77 0

2006 131.56 247.75 2.65 0

2007 1831.54 228.76 24.15 0.07

2008 1538.04 803.22 149.17 0

Impacts of Climate Change

Climate change will be expected to alter both rainfall and snowfall patterns.

The temperature will increase and cause a warming over the entire country.

The rate of temperature increase is greater in higher altitudes and in the winter.

Pattern of temperature increase Pattern of temperature increase (1977(1977--1994) 1994)

(Shrestha et al 1999)(Shrestha et al 1999)

Districts with high increasing and decreasing trends of annual Districts with high increasing and decreasing trends of annual temperaturetemperature

Annual Temperature High increasing trend High decreasing trend

Maximum Dhankuta, Dadeldhura and Okhaldhunga

Sankhuwasabha, Sunsari, Nawalparasi, Banke, Bardiya

Minimum Lamjung, southern parts of Nuwakot, Chitwan and Dhanusa

Doti, Sankhuwasabha and northern parts of Nuwakot

Mean Dhankuta and Lamjung Sankhuwasabha, Doti and northern parts of Nuwakot

General Circulation Models (GCM) projections indicate an increase in temperature over Nepal of 0.5-2.0 °C, with a multi-model mean of 1.4 °C, by the 2030s, rising to 3.0-6.3 °C, with a multi-model mean of 4.7 °C, by the 2090s. There is very little differentiation in projected multi-model mean temperature changes in different regions (East, Central, West) of Nepal.GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot days (the hottest 5% of days in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and 70% by the 2090s GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot nights (the hottest 5% of nights in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93% by the 2090. GCMs project a wide range of precipitation changes, especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s increasing -52 to 135% by the 2090s

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4

Extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, floods/inundation, and avalanches are expected to increase along with river side erosion. Glacial melt in Himalaya will increase flooding and avalanches (Dig Tsho GLOF event of 1985). This will be followed by decreased river flows and water supplies, as the glacier recede.The receding of the glacier will result changes in regional water resources and these are projected to have negative impacts on hydropower generation, irrigation, and drinking water supply, which exacerbates the already constrained access to water down streams. High intensity rainfall will trigger the landslides events on the hill and mountains regions. (Matatirtha landslide event of 2002)High intensity rainfall in the hill regions consequently causes floods in Terai (Flood events of 1993)

Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm) Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm) distributiondistribution

Practical Action 2009Practical Action 2009

Due to decrease in gradient flow of river while entering Terai plain from the steep hill region, Terai will be highly impacted with rise in river bed level, which consequently causes inundation and results in destruction of agriculture land. (Koshi Inundation of 2008)Washing away big area of cultivated land along with the houses including livestock and inhabitants and damage to settlements and disruption of other infrastructures in particular transport and trade due to flooding is an additional potential impact of climate change.I fl th i lt f t bi di it d tb kInfluence on the agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity and outbreak of the certain water and vector borne diseases are also the other potential impacts of the climate change.Temperature rise can accelerate drying of biomasses, which will increase the incidences of forest fires across the nation. (Last year forest fire, this year forest fire)Decrease rainfall, snowfall and increase of temperature will increase the incidence of drought.

Factors Related to vulnerability

Poverty and Economic hardship

Insufficient knowledge on disaster management/Low literacy rates

Poor quality physical infrastructure; prevalence of nonPoor quality physical infrastructure; prevalence of non-engineered construction

Inadequate forecasting facilities

Unplanned settlement; development of settlements and public services in hazardous areas and marginal lands

Deforestation/More dependency on natural resources

Inadequate awareness and concentration of knowledge only in academic centers

R id l ti th P l tiRapid population growth, Population migration/displacement with the deterioration of livelihood opportunities

Land degradation caused by human activities including build settlements, cultivation of steep slopes, fuel wood collection

Acts

Natural Calamity Relief Act 1982Though amended twice (1989, 1992) still mostly focused

on the rescue and relief

Local Self-Governance Act 1999The duties and responsibilities of each of the local bodies

(VDC, DDC and municipalities) are not clearly stated in disaster management

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National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (NSDRM) based on HFA principle

The focus of disaster management in Nepal is changing from reactive (relief and response) to proactive (preparedness) risk reduction, as can be seen in the(preparedness) risk reduction, as can be seen in the NSDRM

The Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) is the national agency responsible for coordination of various aspects of disaster management, including preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation of disasters.

Some Undertaken Local Some Undertaken Local Coping/Adaptation OptionCoping/Adaptation Option

Conduction of awareness raising programme Provision of irrigation system to cope with changing rainfall Mapping of flood hazardsAfforestationPriority given for the preparedness programmeConstruction of embankments, check dams and spurs to limit the negative impacts of flooding and river site cutting

Rain Water Harvesting and Soil Moisture ConservationImprovement of Degraded Land Mitigation of River Bank CuttingSlope Stabilization and ManagementConstruction of house with higher plinth levelInitiation of programme like food for work for post disaster phaseInitiation of the community fund in some places

Suggested Adaptation options

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation options with HFA principleDeveloping and implementing land use/zoning policiesMaintaining up to date hazard and vulnerability mapsTraining and capacity building for disaster and water resource management Working with the community to increase public awareness and g y pdevelop early warning systems and evacuation plans Afforestation and reforestation programs (for reduction of flooding/landslide risk) Proactive and inclusive efforts to prioritize the need of the poor women Forecasting and disaster preparedness for GLOF, flooding and drought events Livelihood diversification

Cross-cutting issues such as Gender and Social inclusion, Human Rights and Protection, need to be considered in the policy levelCoordination between all the stakeholders to lessen the gap between the grass-root level public and policy makersProper training towards the adopting proper agriculture practices, watershed management, agro-forestry, soil conservation, wetland management and fire prevention techniques, as well as supporting sustainable use of naturaltechniques, as well as supporting sustainable use of natural resources and biodiversity conservationRevision and proper implementation of the existing national and international act and policy.Implementation of hydro-meteorological information systemEnhancement of indigenous knowledge and technology

Identified Adaptation OptionIdentified Adaptation OptionClimate Change

Impacts Adaptation options

Increase in intense rainfall

Floods 1. Enhance the capacity of all the water-induced disaster related institutions

2. Strengthen early warning system and forecasting

3. Promotion of reforestation/afforestation programme

4. Implementation of structural measures

5. Conservation of Churia/Siwalik regions

6 Strengthen the capacity and coordination of CBOs NGOs INGOs local6. Strengthen the capacity and coordination of CBOs, NGOs, INGOs, local authorities, professional societies for disaster management networking

7. Hazard/vulnerability mapping and zoning

8. Discouraging and restricting settlements in high risks-areas

9. Establishment and management of emergency supply ware house

10. Making preparations for emergency response, relief and rehabilitation measures

11. Activation of inundation committee

12. Clearing water logging13. Resettlement of vulnerable community

14. Implementation of the building codes

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6

Landslides 1. Hazard mapping and Risk zoning

2. Awareness raising3. Discouraging and restricting people living in high risk areas

4. Resettlement of the vulnerable community

5. Promotion of afforestation /reforestation programme and bioengineering technique

6. Implementation of structural measures

7. Inventory on landslidesf8. Implementation and promotion of water harvesting system and conservation

ponds

9. Improvement of the degraded land10. Promotion of slope stabilization and proper agriculture practice

Outbreak of the epidemics

1. Awareness raising

2. Provision of the food/clean drinking water

3. Promotion of Community level waste management

4. Provision of emergency health care

No rainfall/Increase of temperature Drought 1. Identification of Potential drought prone area

2. Forecasting

3. Livelihood diversification

4. Distribution of drought resistant crops species

5. Provision of food aid

Forest Fire 1. Awareness raising

2. Conservation/promotion of afforestation reforestation programme

3. Forest fire control

Increase of Temperature GLOF/Avalanche 1 GLOF/Avalanche mitigationIncrease of Temperature GLOF/Avalanche 1. GLOF/Avalanche mitigation

2.Awareness Raising

3. Early warning system and forecasting

Heat wave 1. Awareness raising

2. Reforestation/Afforestation

Other climatic factors Cold wave 1. Awareness raising

2. Provision of the warm clothes

Hailstorm/Windstorm andThunderbolt

1. Provision of Insurance

2. Community based fund

3. Livelihood diversification

4. Weather forecasting

Thank you very muchThank you very much

1

DRR and CCA perspectives

Climate change and disasters

Differing expressions

M lti l h d i t

DPNet 15 April 2010Dinanath Bhandari

Multiple hazard environment

Need of integration

Conversing understanding and synergy

“The most widespread risk to settlements from climate change is flooding and landslides driven by projected increase in rainfall intensity and in coastal areas, sea level rise” IPCC, AR 4

DPNet 15 April 2010

Climate change and disasters (risk)

Climate Change [will] further worsen weather induced hazards - disasters (strength of storm, heat stress, erratic pattern of rainfall, drought etc), will increase number and frequency of small scale hazards and risks

Disaster can make climate change impacts more profound

Climate change will act alone and combined with other

DPNet 15 April 2010

Climate change will act alone and combined with otherfactors.

Will there be new hazard due to climate change completely unknown today? = may be.

Practitioners suffer of 'uncertainty' and broadness lying in the information on climate change

One word: (two) expressions

• Mitigation – reduction of effect and impact of a hazard<>reduction of source of hazard i.e. GHG

• Vulnerability - considers initial vulnerability><considers 'increased' vulnerability on top of 'usual' disaster context i.e net impacts of climate change (O'Brien et al, 2004).

• Impacts - long-term effects (generally negative) of disaster to livelihoods and assets...< -> positive and negative

DPNet 15 April 2010

gsituation/consequence on ................ due to climate change.

• Exposure - closeness or nearness to hazard [or] scale of interaction with hazard element [>due to climate change -exposure of a system] - avoiding exposure is difficult/impossible

Multiple hazards with and without CC

Annual Precipitation Trend (Rampur)

2000

2500

3000

cipi

tatio

n (m

m)

DPNet 15 April 2010

0

500

1000

1500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

Annu

al P

rec

Annual precipitation has increased by 426 mm in 30 years (1976-2005) [14.2 mm/yr]

Source: Narayani Basin Office, DHM

Mean Daily Temperature Trend (Rampur)

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

pera

ture

(oC

)

DPNet 15 April 2010

20.5

21

21.5

22

22.5

23

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Mea

n D

aily

Tem

p

Source: Narayani Basin Office, DHM

Mean daily temperature has increased by 1.30C in 30years (1976-2005) [0.0430C/year]

2

Community complaints (before 30 years and now)

• Increase in water shortage for crops• Thicker long lasting fog in winter• Hotter summer, unexpected hot days• More intense rainfall, more frequent floods• Longer gaps between two successive rains

DPNet 15 April 2010

g g p

• Difficult to follow usual crop calendar• New weeds/invasive species, insects and diseases

[on crops]• Increased wildlife intrusion

Hazards and impacts

Erratic Rainfall

Poor access /high demand of water

Flood

Drought

Large Catchments, Improper land use

land, house, shed, road...

Crop, livestock, forests, water…

Causes Primary consequences

Impacts on livelihood assets

DPNet 15 April 2010

Close to park/ open boarder

Climate change (temperature, storms, precipitation)

Conflicts Invasive weeds, diseases, new insect pests, plant growth, flowering time

Mobility, health, security…

Food & habitat shortage for wildlife

Species migration

Wildlife intrusion in the community

Contextual issues

• Managing large watersheds and understanding climate change impacts in them - needs local to regional efforts

• Identifying climate change its impacts in particular locality

• Segregating the 'CC value' on hazard• Development priority (integration of all sectors and

stakeholders’ interests) integration generates synergy

DPNet 15 April 2010

stakeholders interests) - integration generates synergy• Policy and practice

– Negligence to slow onset /creeping hazards• Prevailing poverty – development activities are

prerequisite to DRR and adaptation to climate change; development will not be sustainable if underlying risk factors are not reduced and community have adaptive capacity to 'residual' environment.

Need for integration• Single hazard can affect differently• Different hazards affect individually

and collectively• Different hazards impact at different

times of the year• Different people (and their assets) are

vulnerable to different disasters differently and uniformly

DPNet 15 April 2010

• In above picture what should we recommend to do [CCA or DRR]? – crop resilient to inundation??– crop early maturing before flood come??

• In below picture what we should recommend to do (DRR or CCA?!)

DRR & CCA: Conversing understanding• Decreasing hazard, reducing exposure [and

sensitivity]• Hazard as more or less temporary event;

multiple hazard environment is existing.• Residual vulnerability (on top of usual hazards) • Building adaptive capacity (to the changed

DPNet 15 April 2010

environment) as climate change is more or less longer phenomena

• Impacts of climate change can exacerbate hazards and disasters>=< disaster can make climate change impacts more profound –feedback actions

Integration for synergy

• Some people [may] prefer separate CCA and development to account for 'additionality' issue. They are different but have to go together.

• Both CC and DRR have broad scopes; integrating each other can produce synergy: – CC as one of the contributing factors to hazards– Additional requirements (bridge span, spill ways, landscape

capacity, more specific weather information etc)

DPNet 15 April 2010

p y, p )– Small hazards are 'not neglected' (they claim more assets, some

of them may rise because of CC)– DRR as one of the objective on CCA

• While one is getting major focus (as main sector of work) issues of the other need to be mainstreamed

• In mainstream development, both need mainstreamed

3

How? a case for brainstorming• Drinking water source started drying off• There is perennial water source at hill slope which seepages

down into debris during stream flow at the intake of irrigation channel between November and May. Thus no irrigation.

• There was scarcity of water for domestic use (Nov-May) -from separate source in the same catchment.

• In 2008, community connected water at hill slope to irrigation intake through a pipe irrigation facility increased or drought

DPNet 15 April 2010

intake through a pipe - irrigation facility increased or drought stress decreased? (where there was not 'disaster' situation)

• In 2009, drinking water at source further decreased (leading to more stressful situation); community connected 'water for irrigation' to drinking water supply system.– banned grazing and browsing in the 'catchment'; conservation

measures initiated• Is it DRR or CCA?. If CCA, coping or adaptation?• What happens if the 'drought' worsens?

Living with 'uncertainty'

• Adopting 'no regret' options– Minimize underlying risks – Natural hazards are physical processes that can be

directly affected by social processes.– Healthy ecosystems often provide natural defences;

degraded decrease community resilience.

DPNet 15 April 2010

degraded decrease community resilience.– Environmental degradation is a hazard in itself.

(UNEP/ISDR)– Immediate and long-term actions

• Development plans incorporate DRR/CCA• Linkage between sectoral plans, local to national

plans.

Thank You

DPNet 15 April 2010

Mainstreaming Climate Change AdaptationMainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction

ByMaksha R Maharjan Ph DMaksha R. Maharjan, Ph.D.

Natural Resource and Climate Change Advisor15 April 2010

Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Adaptation

DRR – “A conceptual framework considered to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks through a society, to avoid g y,(prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts or hazards, within the broader context of sustainable development.”p

Climate Adaptation – “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects whichresponse to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, whichmoderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.” – IPCC, 2007

Who are the Impact Groups?: Poor and vulnerable people (Women are especially vulnerable to climate change, in part because of unequal power relations between men and women.)q p )

Pressure and Release (PAR) model: the progression of vulnerability (V1 X V2 X V3 = V)

Root Dynamic UnsafeDi t Hazards

Lack of:•Local Inst.T i i

Physical Env:•Dangerouslocation Earthquake

Cause (V1)y

Pressures (V2) Conditions (V3) Disaster Hazards

•Training•Skills• Local InvestmentsL l M k t

•Unprotectedbuildings andinfrastructureLocal Economy

Limited Access to:

Highwinds

Flooding•Local Markets•Press freedom•Ethical std. in public lifeM f

y•Livelihoods at risk•Low incomelevels

•Power•Structure•Resources

g

Volcanic eruptionRisk =

Hazard XMacro-forces•Rapid Pop.Change•Rapid

b i ti

Social relations•Special groups at risk•lack of local

Ideologies:•Politicalsystems

Landslides

Drought

Vulnerability

R = H X Vurbanization•Arms expenditure•Debt repaymentsched les

inst.Public actions and inst.•Lack of disaster

y•Economic systems

g

Virus andpests

Source: Wisner, B, et al 2004

At risk; Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disastersschedules

•Deforestation•Decline in soil productivity

preparedness•Prevalence of endemic diseases

Firevulnerability and disasters

Internationally Accepted list of Hazards(Source: CRED Crunch, 2008)

1. Biologicalg• Epidemic: Viral Infectious Diseases, Bacterial Infectious Diseases,

Parasitic Infectious Diseases, Fungal Infectious Diseases• Insect Infection: Grasshopper, Locust2. Geophysical• Earthquake: Earthquake, Tsunami • Volcano Eruptionp• Mass Movement Dry: Rock fall, Landslide, Avalanche3. Climatological• Extreme temperature: Hot wave, cold wave, Extreme winter conditionp , ,• Drought• Wildfire: Forest Fire, Bush fire, Grassland fire, Urban fire4. Hydrological4. Hydrological• Flood: General flood, Flash flood, Strom surge/coastal flood• Mass Movement Wet: Rockfall, Landslide, Avalanche, Subsidence5 Meteorological5. Meteorological• Strom: tropical cyclone, Ex-tropical cyclone, Local storm

Classes of AdaptationM bilit t t li t h• Mobility - most common responses to climate change

• Storage pools - reduces risks across time• Diversificaton pools it can occur in relation to• Diversificaton pools - – it can occur in relation to

productive or nonproductive assets, consumption strategies, and employment opportunitiesg , p y pp

• Communal pooling – mobilization and use of resources that are held collectively during times of

itscarcity• Market Exchange – weather-related insurance

schemes designed for agricultural or pastoralistschemes designed for agricultural or pastoralist population

Guiding Questions to Mainstream Climate Change Adaptation into DRR

Wh i t i ?• Why mainstreaming?• What are the most important climate-related or non-climate

related hazards the country face?• Are there particular parts of the country that are vulnerable?• How are hazards likely to change overtime as a result of

climate change?• Is the government is monitoring and analyzing disaster risk

information?• If so, is this information being disseminated? How? To whom?, g• Is the government engaged in planning and implementation of

disaster risk management? If so, which government agencies are actively involved?y

• Is climate change integrated into planning for disaster risk management?

• Are functional warning systems in place at the national level?g y p• Does the government have capacity to respond to disasters?• Which other institutions are engaged disaster risk management

at national level?

Thank YouThank You

Needs of Strengthening Needs of Strengthening Needs of Strengthening Needs of Strengthening Capacity of Government Capacity of Government

InstitutionsInstitutions

Ngamindra Dahal

Workshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management p g

byDPNET and NDMF

A il 15 2010 K th dApril 15, 2010, Kathmandu

Needs of Strengthening Capacity Needs of Strengthening Capacity f f G tG t I tit tiI tit tiof of GovtGovt InstitutionsInstitutions

ADB funded TA is On progress in MOE supporting ADB funded TA is On progress in MOE supporting to mainstream CC and Env Magmt by:• Studying and recommending an agreed-upon • Studying and recommending an agreed-upon structure and funding source for a more developed MoE• Integrating climate change curriculum into NASCtraining and the training units of thematic ministries.• Training and awareness raising at district levels on how to strategically use development funds for CC adaptation.

Importance of general CC Importance of general CC training to understandtraining to understand

Th diff b t li t h d l The difference between climate change and general environmental issuesCultivate cross-cutting thinking, strategies and inter-

i i i l i f dd i i f ministerial cooperation for addressing impacts of climate change, i.e. health impacts are related to agricultural impacts; we must understand the direct

d i di t i t and indirect impacts Role of central and local government in helping communities adapt to climate changeRole and potential of development funds and their strategic use in helping communities adapt to climate change impacts, which will protect their livelihoods, g p psocial infrastructure, and health.

Importance of Training government Importance of Training government ffi i l CB VAffi i l CB VAofficials on CB VAofficials on CB VA

Specific and unique CC challenges in each districts. L l i d i h i l l l bili Local governments, in doing their local vulnerability assessments, should be able to report: ◦ Historical summary of local disasters—the year, y y ,

number of dead/injured/missing, cost of damages◦ Prevailing disaster management approach—is there

one is there dedicated staff and funds mandate of one, is there dedicated staff and funds, mandate of the office specifically for disaster preparedness, mitigation, response operations and recoveryT d d d f l f l b l ◦ Trends in disaster and profile of vulnerability communities◦ Efforts to address issues so farEfforts to address issues so far◦ Good practices nationally and internationally

Issues to addressIssues to addressHow to address these challenges through g gstrategic development fund?How to involve communities in the budget How to involve communities in the budget process to ensure development funds are being strategically allocated to address the being strategically allocated to address the specific and unique climate change impacts ??How to monitor effectiveness of development funds in helping communities development funds in helping communities adapt to climate change impacts ?

Climate Change Climate Change &&&&

Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Reduction Reduction A Call from HFA 2005A Call from HFA 2005‐‐20162016

Shyam Jnavaly@actionaid.org

April 15 2010April 15, 2010

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeClimate ChangeClimate Change

“directly or indirectly to human activity d ect y o d ect y to u a act tythat alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to 

l li i bili b dnatural climate variability observed over comparable time periods” 

h i th t t f th li th i th t t f th li t th t…. a change in the state of the climate change in the state of the climate that can be identified ... by changes in the mean and / or the variability of itsmean and / or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an 

extended period, typically decades or longer ….

Climate Change AdaptationClimate Change Adaptation

The adjustment in natural or human systemsThe adjustment in natural or human systemsin response to actual or expected climaticstimuli or their effects which moderates harmstimuli or their effects, which moderates harmor exploits beneficial opportunities.

The broader concept of adaptation also applies to non‐climatic factors such as soil erosion or surface subsidence. Ad t ti i t f hi f lAdaptation can occur in autonomous fashion, for example 

through market changes, or as a result of intentional adaptation policies and plans. Many disaster risk reduction 

measures can directly contribute to better adaptation

Disaster Risk ReductionDisaster Risk ReductionDisaster Risk ReductionDisaster Risk Reduction

“action taken to reduce the risk ofaction taken to reduce the risk of disasters and the adverse impacts of natural hazards through systematicnatural hazards, through systematic 

efforts to analyze and manage the causesof disasters incl ding thro gh a oidanceof disasters, including through avoidanceof hazardshazards, reduced social and economic 

l bilil bili h d d i dvulnerabilityvulnerability to hazards, and improved preparedness for adverse events”.

Disaster Risk ReductionDisaster Risk Reduction

The concept and practice of reducing disaster risksThe concept and practice of reducing disaster risksthrough systematic efforts to analyze and managethe causal factors of disasters, including throughreduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerabilityof people and property, wise management of landd th i t d i d dand the environment, and improved preparedness

for adverse events.The substantial reduction of disaster losses in lives and the socialThe substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries. 

“disaster reduction” is sometimes used, the term “disaster risk reduction” provides a better recognition of the ongoing nature ofreduction  provides a better recognition of the ongoing nature of 

disaster risks and the ongoing potential to reduce these risks 

Climate changeClimate change andand disaster risk reductiondisaster risk reductionClimate change Climate change and and disaster risk reduction disaster risk reduction are closely linked. are closely linked. 

More More extreme weather extreme weather events in future are events in future are likely to increase likely to increase the number and scale of the number and scale of 

disastersdisasters, while at the same time, , while at the same time, 

the existing methods and tools of disasterthe existing methods and tools of disasterthe existing methods and tools of disaster the existing methods and tools of disaster risk reduction provide powerful capacities risk reduction provide powerful capacities 

f d t ti t li t hf d t ti t li t hfor adaptation to climate change.for adaptation to climate change.

HFAHFAHFAHFAThe Hyogo Framework for ActionThe Hyogo Framework for Actionprovides the foundation for theimplementation of disaster riskreduction. Agreed at the Worldreduction. Agreed at the WorldConference on Disaster Reduction inJ 2005 i K b J ithJanuary 2005, in Kobe, Japan, withthe support of 168 Governments.

Adaptation through disaster risk reduction and th l f th H F kthe role of the Hyogo Framework

• “the substantial reduction of losses, in livesthe substantial reduction of losses, in lives and in the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries”.

• “promote the integration of risk reductionpromote the integration of risk reduction associated with existing climate variability and future climate change into strategies for the reduction of disaster risk and adaptation to climate change...”

1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a nationaland local priority with a strong institutional basis forand local priority with a strong institutional basis forimplementation.

This need is critical to both adaptation and risk reduction:encouraging a core ministry with a broad mandate includingfinance, economics or planning, to be responsible formainstreaming climate change adaptation policies and activities;

i i ti l hi h l l li di l torganizing a national high‐level policy dialogue to prepare anational adaptation strategy that links with disaster risk reductionstrategies;f li i ll b ti d th di ti f li t l t dformalizing collaboration and the coordination of climate‐relatedrisk reduction activities through a multi‐sector mechanism such as anational platform for disaster risk reduction; anddeveloping mechanisms to actively engage women communitiesdeveloping mechanisms to actively engage women, communitiesand local governments in the assessment of vulnerability andimpacts and the formulation of local adaptation activities

2: Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks andh l ienhance early warning.

Important steps under this priority include:

Developing and disseminating high quality information about climate hazards and their likely future changes;

Conducting assessments of vulnerability and specially vulnerableConducting assessments of vulnerability and specially vulnerable groups; 

Preparing briefings for policymakers and sector leaders; 

Reviewing the effectiveness of early warning systems; implementing procedures to ensure warnings reach vulnerable groups; and g p ;

Undertaking public information programmes to help people understand the risks they face and how to respond to warnings.

3: Use knowledge, innovation and education to buildlt f f t d ili t ll l la culture of safety and resilience at all levels.

This principle applies equally to adaptation and disaster risk d ti S ifi t h ld i l dreduction. Specific steps should include 

Collating and disseminating good practices; Undertaking public information programmes on local and personal actions that contribute to safety and resilience;actions that contribute to safety and resilience; Publicizing community successes; Training the media on climate related issues; D l i d ti i l li t d t ti d i kDeveloping education curricula on climate adaptation and risk reduction; Supporting research programmes on resilience; and Improving mechanisms for knowledge transfer from science toImproving mechanisms for knowledge transfer from science to application for risk management in climate‐sensitive sectors.

4: Reduce the underlying risk factorsy g f

• This covers the many environmental and societal factors that create or exacerbate the risks from natural hazards Measures can includeexacerbate the risks from natural hazards. Measures can include:

• Incorporating climate risk‐related considerations in development planning processes and macro‐economic projections; 

• Requiring the use of climate risk‐related information in city planning, q g y p g,land‐use planning, water management, and environmental and natural resource management; 

• Strengthening and maintaining protective works such as coastal wave barriers river levees flood ways and flood ponds;barriers, river levees, flood ways and flood ponds; 

• Requiring routine assessment and reporting of climate risks in infrastructure projects, building designs, and other engineering practices;

• Developing risk transfer mechanisms and social safety nets; • Supporting programmes for diversification of livelihoods; and • Instituting adaptation activities in plans for recovery from specific 

disasters.

5: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effectivet ll l lresponse at all levels.

Resilience building and early warning systems contribute toResilience building and early warning systems contribute to this priority. Other specific actions can include :

Revising preparedness plans and contingency plans to account for the projected changes in existing hazards and new hazards not experienced before; 

Building evacuation mechanisms and shelter facilities; andBuilding evacuation mechanisms and shelter facilities; and 

Developing specific preparedness plans for areas where settlements and livelihoods are under threat of permanent change.

How to integrated DRR & CCAHow to integrated DRR & CCAHow to integrated DRR & CCAHow to integrated DRR & CCA

1. Map the institutions, policies and mechanisms already in place for reducing disaster risk and dealing with climate change adaptation.

2. Take stock of the available information on hazards, exposure, vulnerabilities and risk assessments.

3. Convene multi‐stakeholder discussions to review information and identify opportunities to harmonies policy and address capacity gaps

4. Initiate capacity development activities to build or strengthen coherent p y p gapproaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

5. Design joint project initiatives that address both climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.p

6. Conduct adaptation planning with a multi‐sectoral, development‐based approach and centralized oversight responsibility

Key Messages 1Key Messages 1

Measures to reduce vulnerability and disasterMeasures to reduce vulnerability and disaster risk are proven and are already being applied to adaptation:to adaptation: 

Tools, capacities and supporting mechanisms for disaster risk reduction have been testedfor disaster risk reduction have been tested around the world and are available for wider use in climate change adaptationuse in climate change adaptation.

Key Messages 2Key Messages 2

Disaster risk reduction offers a triple win:Disaster risk reduction offers a triple win: Implementing disaster risk reduction policies and programmes can limit the impacts ofand programmes can limit the impacts of climate‐related hazards, 

directly support adaptation to climate changedirectly support adaptation to climate change, and 

h l ll ihelp alleviate poverty. 

Key Messages 3Key Messages 3

Reducing disaster risk requires ‐ and providesReducing disaster risk requires  and provides opportunities for ‐ political leadership: Political commitment at the highest level isPolitical commitment at the highest level is essential to drive action across all sectors and to build institutional linkages betweento build institutional linkages between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction fieldsreduction fields.

Key Messages 4Key Messages 4

Multi‐stakeholder participation is a key toMulti stakeholder participation is a key to durable results: Disasters and climate change affect all of society and therefore disaster riskaffect all of society, and therefore disaster risk reduction and adaptation solutions must involve all sectors and civil society includinginvolve all sectors and civil society, including the private sector, and community engagementengagement.

Thank youThank youfor your attention !!for your attention !!