DOWNSTREAM MODELING - United States Environmental ...
Transcript of DOWNSTREAM MODELING - United States Environmental ...
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Downstream ModelingDownstream ModelingDownstream Modeling
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EFDC & FCM
EFDC & FCM PSA(10.5 miles)
HSPFWatershed
EFDC & FCMDownstream
(19 miles)
EFDC &EFDC & FCM PSAFCM PSA (10.5 miles)(10.5 miles)
Confluence
Woods Pond Dam
Rising Pond Dam
Pittsfield
Lenox
Stockbridge
Great Barrington
HSPFHSPF WatershedWatershed
EFDC & FCMEFDC & FCM DownstreamDownstream
(19 miles)(19 miles)
Lee
MODEL VALIDATION DOMAIN
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Downstream ModelingDownstream Modeling �� 19 Miles in Length19 Miles in Length �� 4938 Grid Cells4938 Grid Cells �� Time period 1990Time period 1990 -- 20042004
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Lee
Woods Pond Dam
Columbia Mill Dam
Route 20
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�� Willow MillWillow Mill
Mass Pike
Willow Mill Dam
Stockbridge
Route 102
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Rising Pond Dam
Glendale Dam
Housatonic
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BerthaBertha
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FCM Downstream ModelingFCM Downstream Modeling
�� New model domain (Reach 7/8):New model domain (Reach 7/8): �� Different PCB concentrationsDifferent PCB concentrations �� More variable PCB concentrationsMore variable PCB concentrations
�� Currently dataCurrently data--driven; will be linked (indriven; will be linked (in progress)progress)
�� FCM model not calibrated; only customizedFCM model not calibrated; only customized to represent downstream habitatto represent downstream habitat
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Downstream Model Domain
Downstream ModelDownstream Model DomainDomainRising
Pond
Woods Pond
Glendale Dam
Lee
Meadow St. Bridge
Reach 7GReach 7G
Reach 7FReach 7F
Reach 7CReach 7C
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Reach 7 Validation (DataReach 7 Validation (Data--Based)Based)
Reach 7B
Composite of 11 BG and 1
red-ear sunfish
Composite of 2 LB and 10 rock
bass
Composite of 12 YP
All field data are estimated from fillet composite samples from 1982 sampling
1 10 100 1000
Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species
Reach 7G (Glendale Dam)
(n = 23)
(n = 35)
(n = 13)
(n = 28)
Note: n = number of
composites (5 to 15 fish per composite)
1
10
100
1 10 100
Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species
FCM
Sim
ulat
ed A
vera
ge tP
CB
(mg/
kg w
w)
FCM
Sim
ulat
ed A
vera
ge tP
CB
(mg/
kg w
w)
1000
100
10
1
Bluegill Largemouth BassBluegill (BG) Largemouth Bass (LB)
Pumpkinseed Yellow PerchYellow Perch (YP) Factor of 2.5 Underprediction
Factor of 2.5 Underprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction 1:1 Slope
1:1 Slope
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Rising Pond Validation (DataRising Pond Validation (Data--Based)Based) FC
M S
imul
ated
Ave
rage
tPC
B(m
g/kg
ww
)
100
10
1
Reach 8 (Rising Pond)
1 10 100
Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species
Brown Bullhead Bluegill Bluntnose Minnow Largemouth Bass Pumpkinseed Yellow Perch Factor of 2.5 Underprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction 1:1 Slope
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Example RunsExample RunsExample Runs