KINH TE - PHAP LUAT CHAU AU

DONG CUR TR6N THj TRUdNG TRI CHINH QUOC T Hlf N NRV: vi TH'VR CRC Vl'u TO RNH HUdNG

Ths. Nguyen Thi Vu Ha - Nguyen Thanh Hue Trir&ng Dai hoc Kinh te - Dai hoc Qude gia Hd Noi

Su ra ddi cua ddng EUR dem da den hy vgng ve mot cue tien te du manh de duy tri sir can bang cua he thdng tai ehinh - tien te the gidi, von le thugc qua muc vao ddng USD ke tu sau hdi nghi Bretton Wood. Tuy nhien, cuoc khiing hoang ng cdng chau Au hien nay da khiln dilu nay bi nghi ngd. Vay tren thuc tl, EUR CO vi the nhu the nao tren cac thi trudng tai chinh qude te, dac biet la sau cude khung hoang kinh te toan ciu nam 2007 -2008 va vi thi cua ddng tien nay chiu sir chi phii cua nhung ylu td nao? Bai vilt sau day nhim muc dich tra Idi hai cau hdi neu tren.

L Vi the cua dong EUR tren cac thi trudng tai chinh quoc te

Tren thi tru&ng ngogi hoi

K I tu khi chinh thue luu hanh din nay, ding EUR luon chilm mot ty trgng khoang 37-38% tren thi trudng ngoai hdi va chi diing vi tri thu hai sau ddla My. Cude khung hoang tai chinh d My culi nam 2007 da khiln cho ty trgng cua EUR tren thi trudng ngoai hii tang len dang kl (hon 40% tu culi nam 2007 din culi nam 2009). Gia tri cac

' Thj trudng t^i chinh cju6c it bao g6m: Thj trudmg ngoai h6i, thj truemg tien t? qu6c tg, thi trufifng tin dyng quoc te, thj tnrdmg trii phi^u qu6c xk vi thi tnifmg churng khoin qu6c te.

giao dich cd lien quan den EUR khi quy ve USD tang len ttr 1.232 ty USD nam 2007 din hon 1.556 ty USD nam 2010 (tuong duomg vdi mGc tang la 26,3%)^. Tuy nhien khiing hoang ng cdng d chau Au da khien cho ty trgng cua ddng tien cua khu vuc nay bi sut giam xudng dudi 40% (tinh den thang 4 nam 2010 la 39%).

Trong hoat ddng phai sinh lien quan den trao doi ngoai hdi, vi the cua EUR va USD ludn van dgng ngugc chieu nhau mot each rd net. Cu thi la kl tii khi chinh thuc luu hanh tren thi trudng, vi the cua dong EUR tien gan sat nhat vdi vi the cua ddng USD, nhung cang ve sau thi vi the cua hai ddng tien cang each xa nhau theo chieu hudng ddng EUR ngay cang giam dan vi the cua minh. Cu the la vao nam 2001, ty trgng cua EUR chilm hon 50% cac ddng tien trong giao dich ngoai hoi phai sinh, nhung den nam 2009, con sd nay chi con khoang 40%.

Ngugc lai vdi hoat ddng phai sinh lien quan den trao ddi ngoai hoi, hoat dgng phai sinh lien quan den lai suat ghi nhan mot sir vugt len cua dong EUR. Ty le giao dich bang ddng EUR la 39,1%, trong khi ty le cac giao

^ BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange and derivatives market activity in April 2010.

46 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

dich bang USD d miic la 34,1% (thap hon 5% so vdi EUR). Tuy nhien, gia tri cac giao dich bang ddng USD cd xu hudng tang ke tu nam 2000 trong khi gia tri cac giao dich bang ddng EUR lai giam ddi chut vao nam 2007. Gia tri giao dich bang Yen Nhat da giam dan

sau khi tang len cao nhat vao dau 2007. Khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau nam 2007-2008 da khien cho vi the cua ddng EUR cai thien dan so vdi day vao nam 2007, tuy nhien muc do tang ty trgng cua EUR trong cac hoat ddng phai sinh lai suat cdn thap.

Ty trong cac dong tien

(%) Dola My

EUR Yen Nhat Bang Anh

2001

89.9 37.9 23.5 13.0

2004

88.0 37.4 20.8 18.5

2007

85.6 37.0 17.2 14.9

2010

84.9 39.1 19.0 12.9

Ngudn: BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange

derivatives market activity in April 2010.

* S6 lieu dugc \ky vio thang 4 hing nSm.

and

_ _ USD . . . . . EUR JPY

GBP

Ty trgng c&c dong tien giai do^n 2006 - 2009

70 60 50

30 20, . -^ ; :^

O -Tai Jiuy Jan. July Jan. July Jaik. Jvty

Ngudn: The international role of the Euro. 2010.

USD EUR JPY

Ty trgng c^c d6ng tien trong giao djch ngo^i lioi phai sinh

(%) Cic dong tien khiic (die nirfrc piiit trign) Ciic dong tien IcIiAc (cic nvtifc DPT)

199 2001 2003 20QS 2007 2009

Ngudn: The international role of the Euro, 2010.

70

60

50

40

30

20 Y"

10

1999

Ty trpng cac dong tien. trong ho^t dpng phai sinh ^ ~ USD

EUR . . . * . , , . " " JPY lai suat (%) ^ ~ ~ Cic dong tiln Idiic (cic niriv pliit Irien)

C i c dong tiin khii (cic aain DPT)

I ' ' ' > . , ^ . * . . . '

* ..." '

2001 2003 2003 2007 2009

Ngudn: The international role of the Euro, 2010.

^D0*ig ^(Jldl trin thi trttdng. tai ehinh... Al

Tren thi trir&ng tiin t^ quoc te

Thi trudng tien te quIc t l giao djch chii ylu vdi 3 dong tien chinh la USD, EUR va

Yen Nhat, trong do USD chiem ty trgng Idn

nhSt, xoay quanh miic tren 50% tir nam 1999

den nam 2005. Din nam 2006, ty trgng USD

tang dan, len miic cao nhat (60%) vao giai doan cuoi nam 2007, dau nam 2008. Ngugc lai

vdi xu hudng do, ty trgng cua dong EUR tir

khi ra ddi den nam 2003 giii d miic 30%

nhung sau do giam dan va xuIng miic thap

nhat (20%) vao khoang culi nam 2007. Gia tri cac khoan tien giii bSng Yen Nhat In djnh d miic 5% trong suit khoang thdi gian tir 1999 -

2008 va c6 sir giam siit sau cuoc khung hoang

toan cau.

Nguyen nhan ciia sir van dgng ngugc

chilu trong ty le cac khoan tien giii dinh danh

bang USD va EUR la do trong giai doan culi

nam 2007, dSu nam 2008 EUR da giam gia so

vdi USD xuong con 1 EUR = 1,4349 USD

(20/12/2007) va 1 EUR = 1,4482 USD (21/01/2008)^ lam giam cac khoan tien gui bang EUR va tang cac khoan tiln gui bang

USD dii lai suat cac khoan tien giii bang EUR

hip din hon so vdi cac khoan tien giii bing

USD.

Tir cuoi nam 2008 den dau nam 2009,

khiing hoang kinh te bat dau bung no d My da

lam USD giam vi the so vdi EUR. Cu the la

trong giai doan nay, tren thj trudng tiln te, ty trong cua USD da giam xuIng dudi miic 60%

trong khi ty trgng cua EUR da tang len miic

khoang 23%. Tuy nhien, kl tir culi nam 2009,

khi FED dua ra nhiing chinh sach hieu qua

giiip nIn kinh t l My phuc hIi trd lai va dau

hieu ve mot cuoc khung hoang ng cong chau

Au ngay cang ro net da lam giam vi the cua

EUR. Ty trgng cua EUR tren thj trudng nay vao cuoi nam 2009 chi con giii d miic 22%^.

http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/euro fcref-praph-usd.en.html " ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), The international role of the EURO, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/html/index.en.html

48 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).20n

So iirgng

Gia tr| cac khoan tien gui dirgrc dinh danh bang cac dong tien Thi phan

CUSD bflli

USD EUR JFY o&er

7,000 6,000 5,000 4.000 3,000 2,000 1,000

O

i|||;![fU ifllilli I

(peicepCTgea; at oonstant eKcliaxie zates)

USD EtXR.

JFY

^

**-

1999

...

2001 2003

J ..-_ ^

2003 2007 2009

Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010.

Tren thi trudng tin dung quoc te

Ke tir khi EUR ra ddi den nay, ty trgng cac dong tien tren thj trudng cho vay kha on dinh (ty trgng ciia USD xoay quanh mure 50%; EUR xoay quanh miic 20% va Yen Nhat chilm dudi 10%) trir mot sir bien dgng dang ke vao nam 2006. Nam 2006, ty trgng USD tang len khoang 55% trong khi ty trgng EUR va Yen

Nhat giam doi chiit. Dieu nay la do chi phi di vay bing USD thSp hon so vdi chi phi di vay bing EUR da thiic day viec di vay bing USD. Chenh lech lai suat ciia cac khoan vay bang USD va EUR nam 2006 theo ky han 1 thang, 3 thang, 6 thang va mot nam luon nam trong khoang 1.6% din 2%.

Gia tri cac khoan cho vay qua bien gidi tinh theo cac dong tien Sd lirgrng Thi philn

CUSD billions) Cperce^ilasei^ 34 coBstaaxt exchaOLSe rates)

USD EUR JPY otbjsr

8,000 7.000 6,000 S,000 4.000 3,000 2,000 1.000

0

111 I [I ill

USD EUR JPY

8,000

7,000

6,000

3,000

4.000

3,000

2,000

1.000

0

SO 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1 r

i

I !

(

-^

80

ssis^ 60

30 m ^ 20

Ngudn: The international role of the Euro, 2010

fDeng l^Qldl triri thi tru'd^ng tai ehinh... 49

Chenh lech lai suat cac khoan vay bing USD va EUR nam 2006

1thang 3 thSng 6^ th^ng

gl.nam '

i 5.09737 ,, 5.1988

'15.27789 ,^^, 5.31296"

4 i 1 94319^^ ' 3.08101 3.23614 ""' 3.4382

' , ' '.' 2.26 1.1,2

.9K''^f2.22

50 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

Ty trgng cac dong tien trong tone ngr quoc te So lirgrng (nghin ty USD) Thi phan

VSD EUR

iiiiiill 1999' ajoi' '2003 2005

.

1999

...-

.-, - ^

2001

'u_

!20O3 7001 200? 20QS

Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010.

Diem dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trgng cua USD giam xuong mire thap nhat trong khi ty trgng cua EUR tang len miic cao nhat va hai ty trong nay xap xi nhau. Dieu nay la do nam 2005, lai suat ciia cac trai phieu ky han 5 nam va 2 nam dinh danh bing EUR thip hon cac trai phieu ciing ky han khac lin lugt la 11% va 15%'^.

Nam 2008, khi khung hoang kinh t l dien ra d My va co nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau, FED da lien tuc cat giam lai suit va den thang 12/2008, lai suit cac chimg khoan ng dinh danh bing USD ky han 2, 5 va 10 nam da giam xuIng muc lin lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va 2.18%, trong khi cac chiing ng dinh danh bang EUR cung ky han lin lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va 3.698%'^. Lai suit cua cac chiing khoan ng dinh danh bing USD thip da thiic day viec phat hanh churng khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR, tuy nhien viec USD mit gia 2% so vdi EUR vao culi nam 2008*'* lai ngan chan sir tang trudng

'^ ECB (2008,2009, 2010), sdd. "Nt. "* Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation The Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB.

nay. Do dd, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den cuoi nam 2008, ty trgng cua USD la 44.7%, tang nhe (1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty trgng ciia EUR van giir nguyen d miirc 32.2%'^.

DIU hieu ve cude khiing hoang ng cong Hy Lap da khiln cho cuoi nam 2009 ty trgng cac chung khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR giam xuIng muc 31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi culi nam 2008) va tang ty trgng cac chiing khoan ng dinh danh bing USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi culi nam 2008)'*.

Tren thi tru&ng trdi phieu quoc te

Hoat dgng phat hanh trai phieu dinh danh bing EUR tren thi trudng ng quoc te da suy giam trong quy dau nam 2009 do cuoc khung hoang da lam gia tang bien dgng tai chinh toan ciu. Ting trai philu, ky philu dinh danh bing EUR da giam xuIng miirc khoang 2.8 nghin ty vao quy diu tien cua nam 2009, sau do khoi phuc len miic hon 3 nghin ty vao nua sau ciia nam. Tren thuc te, phan Idn cac trai philu, ky phieu dinh danh bing EUR dugc

" ECB (2008,2009, 2010), sdd. '*Nt.

(Dang&atdl trin thi trt^^tg tai ehinh... 51

phat hanh bdi cac thi chi tai chinh. Culi nam 2009, ty trgng ciia khu vuc nay xoay quanh mire 69%. Miic dong gop nay Idn hon so vdi mire dong gop cua no trong trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bing USD va Yen Nhat (lin lugt la 52% va 56%). Cung trong thdi gian nay, ty trong cua khu vuc nha nude va cac to chiic phi tai chinh trong phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bing EUR lin lugt la 6% va 12%, thap hon miic dong gop cua no trong phat hanh trai philu, ky philu dinh danh bing

USD (lan lugt d mire 12% va 16%). Tuy nhien, do dung lugng thi trudng trai phieu, ky phieu ciia USD Idn hom so vdi EUR (4.7 nghin ty so vdi 3.1 nghin ty) nen mac dii cac the che tai chinh phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang EUR d miic 69% (trong khi ty trgng cua no trong phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang USD thap hon la 52%) nen cac to chiic nay van phat hanh mot lugng Idn hem cac trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang USD trong hoat dong phat hanh ciia no.

Gia tri cac trai phieu quoc te dugrc djnh danh bing EUR xet theo khu vuc phat hanh (Ty

USD)

(USD billions) C4c to chiic quoc tS Cac thi chg t&i chinh

..ui fir Cac cong ty . . . ^ ^ Cdc khu vvrc cong khac oi Khu vvrc nhd nude

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000

500 0

HIH

i i i

. j ; i ; : i t i i ; ; : : ! ! ! { ! i i >! )Mimn!n i | ,n H..

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

1999 2001 20O3 2005 2007 2009 Sources: BIS and ECB calculations. I) Includes public corporations, public banks and other public financial institutions.

Gia trj cac trai phieu quoc te dirgrc djnh danh b ing EUR xet theo khu vyc phat hanh (%, quy

IV nam 2009)

(percentages; jchu v^c nhd nudc _ so Cdc khu v^ rc cong khdc mtm od Cdc c6ng ty

' ^ Cdc the cha tai chinh __^ _^,^ J,, Cdc to chiic qu6c tS

Dung IiTQ^ ng thj trirdrng (nghin tyS)

EUR USD JPY Sources: BIS and ECB calculations. I) Includes public corporations, public banks and other public financial institutions.

Nguon: The international role of the Euro, 2010.

Trong dif trie ngogi hoi todn cau Du- trir ngoai hIi toan ciu khdng phai la

mot trong s i cac thi trudng tai chinh toan cau nhung viec xem xet tinh hinh sir dung dong EUR vdi vai tro la dong tiln du trir cung rat quan trgng. Dir trii ngoai hoi la phuomg tien de

cac quIc gia can thiep vao nen kinh te bang each mua ban cac dong tien va no cung co moi quan he mat thilt vdi can can thanh toan quoc tl. Do dd, ty trgng cac ding tien trong dir trCir se phan anh ro net vi thi cua cac dong tien tren cac thi trudng tai chinh toan ciu.

52 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).20n

Ty trong cac ddng tien trong dur trCr ngoai hoi toan cau 1999 - 2008 S6 luyng (nghin ty USD) Thj phan

USD I E H IJPY lOtlieraiireDcies Undisclosed

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 i m Mi 2008

U S D E U R -JPY

I 1 1 1 1n 1 1 1 r

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200? 200

^70

60

50

40

30

20

Ngudn: The Future of Reserve Currencies, 2009.

So lieu tren cho thay USD la ddng tien dugc dir trir nhieu nhat vdi ty trgng trong du trir ngoai hoi toan ciu tir 60% din 70%, dumg thii hai la dong EUR vdi ty le dao dgng tir 20 -30%. Ty trgng cua cac ddng tiln trong du trir ngoai hoi toan cau kha on dinh, ngoai trir sir biln dong vao nam 2003 va 2005. Nam 2003, ty trong ciia USD trong dir trii ngoai hoi toan cau giam ciing vdi do la sir gia tang ty trgng cua EUR. Nam 2005, ty trgng cua USD tang trd lai trong khi ty trgng cua EUR giam xudng. Sir bien dgng dang chii y ve ty trgng cac dong tiln trong dir trir ngoai hdi tir nam 2003 din nam 2005 dugc giai thich bdi hieu ling gia tn. Sir thay doi trong ty gia USD/EUR da anh hudng den gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bing

USD va EUR. Gia tri ddng EUR lien tuc tang kl tir diu nam 2003, din culi nam 2003, EUR da tang gia gin 20% so vdi USD [15]. Do do, gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bang EUR va ty le cua chiing trong du trii" toan ciu tang len. Ngugc lai vdi xu hudng do, ke tir dau nam 2005, ding EUR lien tuc giam gia so vdi USD, tinh den culi nam 2005, EUR da giam gia 14% so vdi USD [15]. Dilu nay lam cho gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bang EUR giam va gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bing USD tang len, dan den tang ty trgng ciia USD va giam ty trgng cua EUR trong du trir ngoai hdi toan ciu.

Mat khac, kl tir khi ra ddi cho din nay, ty

trgng cua EUR trong du trii ngoai hIi toan cau

da tang len trong khi ty trgng cua USD da

&nq. ^(WQ. trin thi tnte^ng tai ehinh. 53

giam doi chut. Dieu nay la do mot vai nguyen nhan nhu sau:

* Thu nhdt, cac nude tren the gidi muon phan tan rui ro va giam bdt sir phu thugc vao chinh sach tiln te ciia My. Nude di dau trong phong trao nay la Lien bang Nga. Nude nay da tang ty trong ciia EUR trong ro tien te dugc sir dung bdi Ngan hang Trung uong Nga tir 10% -20% vao thang 5 nam 2005, len lin lugt la 35% (8/2005), 40% (12/2005) va 45% (2/2007)'^

* Thic hai, tinh long cua cac tai san dinh

danh bing EUR da tang len dang kl. Mot cuoc

khao sat dugc thuc hien bdi Ngan hang Thanh

toan Quoc tl (BIS) da dua ra kit qua la 74% cac Ngan hang Trung uong cho rang cac trai phieu

dinh danh bing EUR cd tinh long cao, diing thir

hai sau cac trai philu dinh danh bing U S D ' ^ DO

la ly do vi sao hg tin tudng sir dung cac tai san

dinh danh bing EUR trong du tru ngoai hIi ciia

minh.

* Thif ba, cac giao dich sir dung ding EUR da tang trong 10 nam trd lai day doi hoi

cac Ngan hang Trung uong phai tich trii mot

gia tri Idn hon cac tai san dinh danh bing EUR

trong du trii ngoai hIi cua minh.

Nhin chung, tren cac thi trudng tai chinh

toan ciu, ty le sir dung ding EUR vin thap

hon so vdi USD. Tuy nhien, ty le su dung

dong EUR trong nhung nam gan day da tang

so vdi khi dong EUR bat dau chinh thiic dugc

dua vao sii dung. Mat khac, dong EUR dugc

sir dung nhilu nhat d cac nude EU khong phai

la thanh vien Eurozone, sau do den khu vuc

BIC My, trong khi do no dugc sir dung rat it d

cac nude chau A - noi ding USD dugc sir

dung phi bien.

Nhu da noi d tren, ty trgng cua USD trong dir trir ngoai hIi toan ciu khong ngimg suy giam ke tir khi EUR ra ddi cho den nay. Cuoc khiing hoang kinh t l My cang thiic diy xu hudng nay. Ty trgng cua USD trong dir trii ngoai hIi toan cau tinh den cuoi nam 2008 la 60.7% (giam 1.3% so vdi binh quan nam 2007)'' trong khi ty trong cua EUR cuoi nam 2008 la 30% (tang 1.4% so vdi binh quan nam 2007)^. Ngay ca khi cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl cua My din qua di va chau Au lam vao khiing hoang ng, cac Ngan hang Trung uong van

khong tang ty trgng cua USD trong du trir ngoai hIi cua minh. Thay vao do, tinh den cuoi nam 2009, cac nude tilp tuc giam ty trong cua USD xuIng miic 58.5%, giii nguyen ty trong cua EUR va tang ty trgng ciia cac ding tiln (khong kl Yen Nhat) khac len 9.6% (diu nam 2008 miic nay la 7.8%)^'. Dilu nay la do trong bii canh kinh tl toan ciu co nhilu biln dong, viec da dang hoa du trii ngoai hIi se giam bdt riii ro cho cac nude.

" Ellas Papaioannou and Richard Portes (2008), The international role of the euro: a status report, European Commission. " ECB (2008, 2009,2010), sdd.

"Nt.

'^ ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), sdd.

54 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

smices

euro area euro area Uiiited United J ^ J ^ (1997- {2001- States Stats (M7- QOOl-2000) m i ) (mi- (2001- 2000) 2006)

2000) 2006)

Ty t rgng cua khu virc Eurozone v i My t rong tSng GDP toan cau (theo PPP)

100% 8OP/0 eop/o 40% 20% 0%

!.MUIKt,it;ftirit.MilMII M,HII I iKIuVTIcdTkigELR IM? IKIBC

2. Cac yeu to anh hirdng den vj the cua dong EUR

Quy mo kinh te, do md ciia cua khu vuc su dung dong EUR (Eurozone)

Eurozone la mot khu vuc co quy mo kinh te Idn (GDP theo ngang gia sire mua cua khu vuc nay nam 2010 la 10.793,97 ty USD^^), dieu nay giai thich tai sao ngay tir khi mdi ra ddi ding EUR da dugc cac nude tren the gidi chip nhan va sii dung rgng rai. Tuy nhien, ddng EUR van ehua the thay the vai trd chu dao cua ddng USD mot phan la do trong suot thdi ky tir 2002 din nay quy md kinh te ciia Eurozone con kem My.

Nam 2010, ty le dong gop ciia My, Eurozone va Nhat Ban lin lugt la 20,22%, 14,62% va 5,83%^^ Ba khu vuc nay da dong gop gan 50% trong GDP toan cau. Dieu nay giai thich mot thuc t l la ddng USD, ddng EUR

^^ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics " Georges Pineau, (2010), The global use of the dollar and Euro, European Commission, tai lieu duac lly tu trang web http://www.ecb.int/pub/html/index.en.html

va dong Yen la nhung dong tien dugc sir dung rgng rai trong cac quan he kinh te quoc te, trong dd quy md kinh t l tuomg duong vdi vi the cac ddng tien.

Ngoai quy md kinh te thi miic do md cira cua khu vuc chau Au, My va Nhat Ban cung cho thay vi thi cua cac ding tiln nay tren cac thi trudng tai chinh qude tl . Do md cira cua Eurozone trong thdi ky tir 2001 den 2007 la gin 38%, tang 5% so vdi thdi ky tir 1997 din 2000. Cung vdi xu hudng do, do md cua ciia My va Nhat Ban cung tang len dang ke (lin lugt la 25% va 23% trong thdi ky 2000 -2007). Tuy nhien, do md cua nen kinh te hai nude nay vin thip hon so vdi Eurozone.

Nam 2009, gia tri xuit khiu cua Eurozone neu tinh ca ndi KhIi chilm 29,1% tdng gia tn xuat khau toan cau, Idn hom rat nhieu so vdi My (8,6%.) va Nhat Ban (4,7%). Neu khdng tinh gia tri thuong mai ndi KhIi, ty trgng xuat khau cua khu vuc nay trong gia trj xuit khau toan cau vin Idn hon My gan 7% va Nhat Ban 12%.

^ongl/Uai trin thi trtt^ng tai ehinh... 55

Toe dO tang tru&ng kinh te cua My, Eurozone va Nhat Ban tir 2007 - 2010

8" 1 S -1 9" S i -2

^Eiiraarea USA

-Japan

2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3

Gia tri xuat khau cua cac nvdc trong gia tri xuat khau toan cau (bao gom thvo'ng mai noi Khoi

Eurozone)

57%

eurozone

us

japan rest of the

world

Ngudn: Annual report on the euro area, 2010.

Gia tri xuat khau cua cac nude trong gia tri xuat khau toan cau (khong bao gom thuotig mai noi

Khoi Eurozone) 17%

67%

eurozone

I us'

I japan I rest of the world

Ngudn: ECB.

Co thi thay ring do md ciia Idn ciia Eurozone la mot trong nhiing ylu t l giiip cho ding EUR dugc sii dung rgng rai trong thuomg mai quIc tl . Yeu ciu su dung ding EUR trong xuat nhap khau se din din mot loat cac hoat dong tren cac thi trudng tai chinh ma mua ban ngoai hoi va hoat dgng tai chinh phai sinh la dien hinh. Do do, cac ngan hang cung se cin d\f trii dong EUR trong du tr& ngoai hIi cua minh dl can thiep vao thi trudng khi cin thilt. Day la ly do lam cho ddng EUR dugc sii dung ngay mot rgng rai hon.

Do anh hudng cua cuoc khiing hoang kinh te toan ciu, tat ca cac nude deu co miic tang

trudng am ke tir cuoi nam 2008 cho den quy IV 2009 va nam 2010 nen kinh te ciia cac nude tang trudng duong trd lai. Trong do. My la nude cd miic tang trudng trd lai nhanh va In dinh nhat. Eurozone tang trudng tir tir va cham hoi phuc hom so vdi My, con miirc tang trudng ciia Nhat Ban giao dgng manh. D I thi cho thay trong thdi gian nay khong co khu vuc nao co miic do tang trudng nii bat. Dilu do cung ding nghTa vdi viec Eurozone kho long vugt My vl quy mo kinh tl trong ngin han va dong USD vin se giii vumg vi the hang dau ciia no trong nhung nam tilp theo.

Su dn dinh miic gid chung (Igm phdt) ciia Eurozone

56 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011 * > 9 *

Mot dong tien cd the vuon den vi the dong tiln quoc te tuc la dugc sir dung rgng rai trong viec tich luy gia tri va su dung lam phuong tien thanh toan thi nd phai co dugc niem tin ciia ngudi nude ngoai ve tinh on dinh cua no. Do do, su In dinh gia ca ciia Eurozone dong mot vai tro dang ke trong viec quyet dinh vi the ciia dong EUR.

Ke tir nam 2000 den nay, lam phat ciia Eurozone luon giir d miic thip va on dinh, lam phat trong giai doan tir nam 2000 den 2007 xoay quanh mire 2%. Do anh hudng ciia cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau, lam phat ciia khu vuc nay da dao dgng manh hon trudc, len miic 4% vao nam 2008 va xuong miic dudi 0%

vao nam 2009, nhung sau do da In dinh trd lai vao nam 2010.

So vdi cac nude, Eurozone van la noi co gia ca dn dinh nhat ca trudc va sau khung hoang. Giai doan tir 2000 - 2007, chenh lech giiia miic gia thap nhat va cao nhat d khu vuc nay chi la 0,5% trong khi d My la hon 2% va d Nhat khoang 1,5%. Giai doan tir 2008 - 2010, mire dao dgng d My da len tdi 8% (gan 6% nam 2008 va -2% nam 2009) va d Nhat Ban cung la hon 4%.

Nhu vay, sir In dinh cua gia ca d cac nude thanh vien giiip cho ddng EUR dugc tin tudng sii dung rgng rai tren the gidi.

Gia ca tieu diing cua cac nvdc Un i ted Kingdom -Japan

6

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t I I I I i I /ijfc I H ) 1 1 - -f \ -mr - ^ \ -*- ^ ^i^y-W "*

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Ngudn: World Statistics Day Contributions of central bank statistics in a global context, 2010. Su phdt trien vd hgp nhat thi trudng

tdi chinh EU

Yeu to gop phan vao viec quyet dinh vi the quoc te ciia mot ddng tien la sir phat trien cua cac thi trudng tai chinh tai nude phat hanh dong tien dd. Cac thi trudng tai chinh cua chau Au neu on dinh, phat trien va hgp tac tot vdi nhau se khien cho dong EUR nang cao dugc vi the ciia minh. Hien nay, thi trudng tai chinh Eurozone co tinh thanh khoan cao, dac biet la cac trai phieu chinh phii bing dong EUR.

Cd khoang 74% cac ngan hang trung uong xac nhan tinh thanh khoan cao cua trai phieu dinh danh bing ddng EUR. Cac trai phieu chinh phu dinh danh bing ding EUR co tinh Idng cao thii hai sau cac trai phieu dinh danh bing USD.

Ben canh dd, chi phi giao dich tren cac thi trudng tai chinh khu vuc ciing giam dang ke. Chi phi giao dich ngoai hdi gin nhu bing khdng. Chi phi giao dich cd phieu va trai philu da giam lan lugt 17% va 14% so vdi trudc day^".

' ECB (2008,2009,2010), sdd.

^e*tg Sdtdl trin thi tnOttg tai ehitih... 57

100

Tinh thanh khoan cua cac trai phieu chinh phu dinh danh bing cac dong tien

Tinh thanh khoan cua cac trai phieu chinh phii djnh danh bang cac dong tien

5 0 48

I I 11 Euzo Pound sterling Japanese Yen Aiistzalian Canadian KZ dollar S\%cdisli krona Danisli krone

AcSiAx dollar

Ngudn: RBS Reserve Management Trends 2008.

Mac dil thi trudng tai chinh Eurozone da timg bude phat triln nhung hien nay thi trudng nay van ehua phat trien sau rgng nhu thi trudng tai chinh Hoa Ky. Thi trudng co philu ciia khu vuc nay mdi chi bing mot nira cua thi trudng CO philu d My^ .^ Ben canh do, tinh thilu hgp nhat cua cac thi trudng d Eurozone da lam giam miic do hap din ciia cac co phieu dinh danh bing EUR so vdi USD. Cac chinh phii d chau Au van dgc lap trong viec phat hanh trai phieu va tu quylt dinh miic lai suat din den lai suit trai philu chinh phu d cac nude trong khu virc co sir chenh lech.

Chinh sir khac nhau vl he thing luat phap, he thong thanh toan va he thing thul... ciia cac quIc gia thanh vien da can trd sir phat triln va hgp nhit thi trudng tai chinh toan khu vuc. K I tir nam 1999, khu vuc nay da thilt lap mot chuong trinh nhim hgp nhat thi trudng tai chinh CO ten ggi la FSAP, nhung dh hoan thanh chuong trinh nay cin cd mot thdi gian dai.

Lich sir cua dong tiin

Lich sii cua dong tiln cung la mot trong nhirng yeu to anh hudng din vi thi quoc te cua mOt dong tiln. Trong Hch sii, ding USD da timg thay thi vi tri hang diu ciia Bang Anh tren cac thi trudng toan ciu, nhung thdi ky sau

do Bang Anh van dugc sii dung kha rong rai. Ly do la trong mot thdi gian dai, ngudi ta da hinh thanh thdi quen sir dung Bang Anh trong cac giao dich kinh tl . Thuc t l la nam 2004, gia tri cua Bang Anh trong cac giao dich ngoai hoi chiem den 16,9% trong ting gia tri giao dich toan cau 26

Mat khac, kl tir sau Chiln tranh thi gidi thir Hai, ngay cang co nhieu ngudi sii dung dong USD. Dilu nay din din cac giao dich bing USD trd nen de dang va it chi phi hom. Cang CO nhilu nude sii dung ding USD trong giao dich quoc t l thi chi phi giao dich bang USD cang thip. Do do, mgt nude se do du trong viec ngimg sir dung dong USD trong cac giao dich quoc te ciia minh du co mong muon su dung mot ding tiln Idiac, trir khi biet chac chin ring cac quIc gia khac cung lam tuomg tu. Day la ly do khiln cho vi tri cua ding USD kho CO thi bi thay thi. Thdi gian kl tir khi ding EUR dugc dua vao su dung chinh thiic trong ITnh vuc tiln mat din nay ehua phai la mot khoang thdi gian dai, trong khi USD da chiem vi the dgc ton tir gin 60 nam nay. Do do, EUR vin ehua thi trd thanh thach thiic Idn dii vdi vi thi cua USD.

25 http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics 2*http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics

58 NGHIEN CCrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (1301.2011

Tinh hinh sir dyng dong USD & cac khu vifc tren the gidi (%)

U i . dollar invoicing sharein country exports

I Ukraine

i Malaysia Indonesia *PalJstai

, A * Thailand M Korea

Australia* Israel

U|iaiia ^ ^ h &eece Netherlands

*frante*spj,in ^ le^ium ^IwCyiinE , . . ^ 1 Pojanl %oatia, *5*embo.rg \ ^ F

' irk Sovakia

MAfr ica iapai

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U.S. dollar invoicing share in country imports |asashafetftiAaiin|iorts|

\M!t

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CzechRepubiicij (Hungary FVIIM Deimark l & M ^ a

Sovenla

Indonesia

South 4j3Thailand

Ngudn: The global use

Co thi thiy cac nude thugc khu vuc EU sii dung dong USD rat han che trong cac giao dich ciia minh, trong khi cac nude d Idiu vuc nhu chau A, Trung Ddng va My Latinh lai chu yeu sii dung dong USD. Diln hinh nhu Algeria su dung dong USD trong gan nhu hau hit cac hgp dong xuat khau, hay hon 80% hgp dong nhap khiu cua Indonesia dugc thanh toan bing USD. Dieu nay la do mot so nguyen nhan sau: Thir nhdt, a mot s i nude san phim xuat khau chii yeu la dau md san pham dugc dinh gia theo USD (trudng hgp Algeria - nude cung cap dau thii 7 thi gidi); Thir hai, thdi quen su dung USD lam ding tiln chinh ffong thanh toan quIc te (Han Quoc); Thii ba, miirc do ddla hoa cao trong mot so nIn kinh tl .

of the Dollar and Euro, 2010. Nhu vay, dong EUR vin con kem lgi the

so vdi ddng USD d mot vai ylu td nhu quy mo kinh t l cua Eurozone cdn kem so vdi My, thi trudng tai chinh d Eurozone ehua phat trien va thilu tinh hgp nhat so vdi thi trudng tai chinh d My, thdi gian luu hanh cua EUR ehua lau. Dilu nay giai thich tai sao EUR chi diing vi tri thii hai sau USD.

3. Vi the cua dong EUR trong tumig lai

Hien nay, ddng EUR dang phai doi mat vdi thach thiic rat Idn tir cude khiing hoang ng cdng chau Au. Sau khung hoang kinh te toan cau nam 2008, nhieu nude thanh vien trong khu vuc dong EUR da vi pham_ nghiem trgng thoa thuan Masstricht - mot thda thuan vdi cac dilu kien dam bao cho sir t in tai va on dinh ciia ddng EUR.

^Deng^/ltU trin thi trtOng tai ehinh... 59

10,0

5,0

0.0

5,0

10,0

15,0

Tham hut ngan sach va no- cong cua cac nude Eurozone 2001 - 2009

10,0 Budget deficit % Of GDP

\ . Ireland

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I I I I I I I I

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Greece ..jgQ JQ 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Oa

130

110

90

70

50

30

10

Ngudn: European Commission.

Theo thoa thuan Masstricht, cac nude gia nhap khIi Eurozone phai co miic tham hut ngan sach d miic dudi 3% GDP, nhung ty le tham hut ngan sach va ng cong cua mot so nude thanh vien da tang dot biln ke tir nam 2008. Nam 2009, miic tham hut ngan sach ciia cac nude Y, B I Dao Nha, Tay Ban Nha, Ailen va Hy Lap da dao dgng d muc tir 5% din 15% GDP, trong dd Hy Lap la nude co miic tham hut ngan sach Idn nhat (15% GDP). Ben canh do, nhilu nude da cd ty le ng cong vugt qua miic 60% theo thoa thuan Masstricht. Cu the Hy Lap va Y la nude co ty le ng cong Idn nhit, d miic 120% GDP, ty le ng cdng d Bo Dao Nha la 60% GDP va d Tay Ban Nha la gin 70% GDP (nam 2009).

Tinh den thdi dilm hien nay da cd ba nude la Hy Lap, Ailen va Bo Dao Nha phai xin vien tro tir ECB va IMF bdi cac quoc gia nay

khong con kha nang tra ng. Vi the cua dong EUR dang phai doi mat vdi thach thiic Idn nhat ke tir khi ra ddi, khi ma cuoc khung hoang ng ehua dugc giai quylt diit dilm va co nguy co lan rong sang cac nude khac cua khu vuc do cac nen kinh te trong Khoi co lien quan mat thilt vdi nhau va hien tugng vay ng chong cheo giira cac nude trong KhIi. Trudng hgp Tay Ban Nha la mot vi du ro net nhat. Nude nay dang la chii ng Idn nhit ciia Bo Dao Nha. Viec B I Dao Nha khong thi giai quylt dugc ng nIn ding nghia vdi viec dat Tay Ban Nha vao tinh trang bao dgng. Hien nay, cac nude EU mdi chi dua ra nhiing giai phap mang tinh chit tam thdi dl khIng che khiing hoang, tuy nhien, cac van de cit loi cua KhIi - nguyen nhan chinh gay ra khung hoang ehua dugc giai quylt triet dk. Dilu nay anh hudng khong it tdi tuomg lai dai ban ciia dong EUR.

60 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

Trong boi canh tren, ding NDT dugc nhieu ngudi xem nhu la ddng tien co kha nang thay the vi tri thir 2 cua EUR nhu la mot bien phap tranh sir le thugc qua mure vao My. Bdi le, trong thdi gian gan day, Trung QuIc dang noi len nhu la mot nIn kinh te co toe do tang trudng cao. Nam 2010, GDP tinh theo ngang gia siic mua ciia Trung Quoc hon 10 nghin ty USD, ddng gop 13,267% trong GDP toan the gidi, chilm vi tri la nen kinh tl Idn thir hai tren the gidi. Chinh phu Trung Quoc ciing dang thuc hien nhirng bude de dua NDT sir dung rgng rai trong cac quan he kinh te quoc te. Thiir nhdt, Trung QuIc da ky vdi nhieu nude tren the gidi ve viec sii dung dong ban te cua moi nude lam phuong tien thanh toan thay VI sir dung ddng USD hay mot ngoai te thii 3 khac. Thir hai, nude nay da ky hiep udc hoan doi tien te vdi nhieu nude tren thi gidi. Ben canh do, chinh phu nude nay cung thuc hien chuong trinh thii nghiem sir dung Nhan dan te cho xuat khau. Ngoai ra, Trung QuIc cung tim each nang cao vi the cua minh trong IMF. Dau thang 9/2009, Trung QuIc mua trai philu IMF vdi gia tri tuong duomg 50 ty USD (bing khoang 32 ty SDR) ,27

Mac dil phai doi mat vdi thach thiic Idn tir cuoc khung hoang chau Au, nhung xet nhiing yeu to quylt dinh vi thi cua mot ddng tiln thi ddng NDT hoan toan khong cd kha nang thay thi EUR trong thdi gian tdi, bdi le NDT khong cd dugc lgi thi nhu EUR. Vl phia ding EUR, de dong tiln nay cd dugc sir phat triln bin viing, Eurozone noi rieng va khu vuc EU ndi

'^ http://tailieu.vn/xem-tai-lieu/bao-cao-vi-the-dong-usd-qua-cac-giai-doan-tac-dong-doi-voi-viet-nam-.336826.html

chung can phai dua ra dugc nhirng bien phap khic phuc dugc nhirng diem yeu ciia Khoi, de dam bao ring tinh trang tdi te hien nay se khong tiep dien trong tuong lai. Ngay ca khi khu vuc nay phat trien on dinh diing quy dao ciia no, EUR vin can mot sd ylu t l cin thilt de trd thanh ddi trgng ciia USD, do do vdi tinh trang hien nay ciia khu vuc chau Au, dong tien nay khong thi thach thirc vi tri ciia USD trong tuong lai gan.

Tai lieu tham khao 1. BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange and

derivatives market activity in April 2010. 2. ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), The

international role of the EURO, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/html/index.en.ht ml

3. Elias Papaioannou and Richard Portes (2008), The international role of the euro: a status report, European Commission.

4. Georges Pineau, (2010), The global use of the dollar and Euro, European Commission, tai lieu dugc lay tir trang web http://www.ecb.int^pub/html/index.en.html

5. Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation The Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB.

6. Kristin J.Forbes (2010), Underlying determinants of global currency status.

7. http://tailieu.vn/xem-tai-lieu/bao-cao-vi-the-dong-usd-qua-cac-giai-doan-tac-dong-doi-voi-viet-nam-.336826.html

8. http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxrefyht ml/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html

9. http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics